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PROF. G. RAMACHANDRUDU
WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHIC
DIVIDEND?
The Demographic dividend is a rise
in the rate of economic growth due
to a rising share of working age
people in a population. This usually
occurs late in the demographic
transition when the fertility rate falls
and the youth dependency rate
declines.
CONDITIONALITY OF
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
The magnitude of the demographic
dividend appears to be dependent
on the ability of the economy to
absorb and productively employ
the extra workers , rather than be a
pure demographic gift.
POPULATION TRENDS
6.1 B
2.5 B
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).
Comparison of
developed and
developing
countries.
Source: Population Reference Bureau. 2007 World Population Data Sheets (2007).
Populatio
n (In
Million)
Percenta
ge
Decadal
Variation
Average
annual
exponent
ial
Growth
Rate (Per
cent)
Crude
Birth
Rate
Crude
Death
Rate
Sex Ratio
(Females
per 1000
males)
1901
238.4
45.8
44.4
972
1911
252.1
5.75
42.6
964
1921
251.3
-0.31
(+)0.03
48.1
47.2
955
1931
279.0
11.00
36.3
950
1941
318.7
14.22
31.2
945
1951
361.1
13.31
27.4
946
1961
439.2
21.51
22.8
941
1971
548.2
24.80
19.0
930
1981
683.3
24.66
15.0
934
1991
846.4
23.87
11.4
927
2001
1028.6
21.54
8.9
933
Year
Age Group
0-14
15-60
60 and above
1961
41.0
53.3
5.7
1971
41.4
53.4
5.2
1981
39.7
54.1
6.2
1991
36.5
57.1
6.4
2001
35.6
58.1
6.3
2011
29.7
61.9
8.5
1961
1
15-59
0-14
AndhraPrades
39.54
2001
32.07
1961
6o+
2001
1961
2001
54.23
60.32
6.23
7.61
Bihar
42.32
41.54
52.07
52.01
5.62
6.45
60.25
4.94
6.91
NA
7.52
Gujarat
42.89
32.84
52.17
Haryana
NA
35.99
NA
Karnataka
42.16
31.91
52.11
60.45
7.3
7.69
Kerala
42.64
26.08
51.53
63.44
5.84
10.48
Madhya
Pradesh
40.82
38.21
54.02
54.66
5.16
7.14
Maharashtra
40.67
32.14
54.07
59.12
5.27
8.74
Orissa
39.10
33.23
55.23
58.5
5.67
8.27
56.49
WHY POPULATION
CONTROL?
POPULATION THEORIES
THOMAS MALTHUS
(1766-1834)
4
3
8
4
16
5
Figure 1.3
Capacity(billions)
Low
5.6
Intermediate
14.9
High
33.2
EFFECTS OF POPULATION
GROWTH
Effects of faster population growth
Younger
More
age structure
complex families
Higher
rates of migration
Higher
rates of conflict?
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
IN INDIA
population(%)
1950-1951
2.3
52.5
1960-1961
7.1
53.3
1970-1971
5.0
53.4
1980-1981
7.2
54.1
1990-1991
5.6
57.1
2000-2001
4.4
58.1
2010-2011
8.4
61.9
Correlation Coefficient=0.6741
Nepal
4,000,000
United States
2,843,391
3 Malaysia
2,400,000
Myanmar
2,000,000
5 Saudi Arabia
England
7
U AE
8
South Africa
9
Canada
10
Mauritius
11
Kuwait
12
Trinidad and Tobago
13
Oman
14
Australia
15
Singapore
1,500,000
1,414,100
1,400,000
1,160,000
1,000,000
855,000
580,000
525,000
450,000
405,000
400,000
13.33
9.48
8.00
6.67
5.00
4.71
4.67
3.87
3.33
2.85
1.93
1.75
1.50
1.35
US$(Billion)
% growth
2008-09
46.9
----
2009-10
53.6
14
2010-11
55.6
2011-12
66.1
19
STATES
TOTAL
TOTAL
REMITTANCES
REMITTANCES
(Rs.Crores)
AS A % OF GSDP
KERALA
51211
35.3
MAHARASHTRA
26481
5.2
TAMIL NADU
17277
6.4
PUNJAB
16505
12.9
ANDHRA PRADESH
9512
3.3
DELHI
8392
6.4
GUJARAT
8305
3.2
KARNATAKA
7564
3.6
UTTAR PRADESH
6553
2.2
10
RAJASTAN
5689
3.7
11
GOA
3574
21.6
12
WEST BENGAL
3197
1.2
Demographic
Determinants of Growth
Rate of GNP
S. No.
Independent Variables
Beta Coefficient
1
Constant
-2.83 (4.94)
2
Dependency rate
-0.81 (1.72)
3
Life expectancy
-0.76 (1.15)
4
Adult literacy
5.23* (4.88)
5
Female work participation
1.62* (3.47)
6
% of working age population
3.35* (4.86)
7
Growth rate of population
-2.28* (3.96)
R-Square = 0.68, F value=16.52
t-values are provided in parenthesis.
* Significant at 1 per cent level.
INDIAs FUTURE
INDIAS PROBLEMS
Low women work participation
(poor HRD)
Black Money and acute
corruption
Rigid Education System
(Curriculum)
Lack of skilled training
Poor employability
INDIAS PROBLEMS(contd)
INDIA'S ADVANTAGE
Demographic and geographic
Societal Building Block (family as an
institution)
English Language (largest number of English
speaking population)
Affinity to mathematics and science subjects
Credible IT image (India is world leader)
Steady Growth Trajectory
Strong will, enthusiasm and spirituality that
gives honesty & commitment to workforce.
WORKFORCE SHORTAGE IN
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES BY 2020
Maximum projected shortage
United States - 6.1 millions
Canda - 1.7 millions
Spain - 2 millions
Japan 2.8 millions
Over 50% shortage predicted in
English speaking countries.
REALITY CHECK
1210 million population with a 582 million
workforce. Unemployment at 9.2%.
By 2020 60 million unemployed, more
than entire population of UK, France & Italy.
90% of workforce in the unorganized
sector.
Low skill levels among women causing rise
in unemployment rate for women.
India Story
1900
1950
1980
2002
2006
1950
1980
2002
2006
2011
1.0
3.5
6.0
8.0
6.9
India Story
2) Population growth is
slowing down
% average annual growth
1901
1951
1981
1991
2001
1950
1980
1990
2000
2011
1.0
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.4
Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)
India Story
3. Literacy is rising
%
17
1951
1991
2001
2011
52
65
74
India Story
4. Middle class is
exploding %
Million
People
1980
2000
22
2011
33
65
220
Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002
438
5. Poverty is declining
India Story
1980
46%
2000
2010
26%
16%
6. Productivity is rising
India Story
1,178
2000
3,051
2011
2011
3,627
Rs. 53,331(at current prices)
India Story
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Asia
Domestic
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Asia
Domestic
Services
Manufacturing
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Asia
Domestic
Exports
Services
Manufacturing
Consumption
Investment
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Domestic
Exports
Services
Manufacturing
Consumption
Investment
Low tech, labor
High tech,
capital
intensive industry
intensive
industry
Domestic led
Insulation from global
downturns
Less volatality
Services led
Have we skipped the
industrial revolution?
How do we take people
from farms to cities?
IMPLICATION OF INDIA
MODEL
Consumption led
India
Europe
China
India
U.S
China
Brazil
64
58
42
33
41
45
59
Reasons for
Success
Indias success is market led
whereas Chinas is state
induced. The entrepreneur
is at centre of the Indian
model
MOMENTUM
THANK YOU
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