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Global Warming

Will Human-Induced
Climate Change Destroy
the World?

www.GodAndScience.org
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Introduction
 Is the world getting warmer?
 If so, are the actions of mankind to
blame for earth’s temperature
increases?
 What can/should be done about
these issues?
 Are the potential resolutions worth
the cost to implement them?
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History of Earth’s Climate
 Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago
 Originally very hot
 Sun’s energy output only 70% of
present
 Liquid water present ~4.3 billion
years ago (zircon dating)
 Much of earth’s early history erased
during late heavy bombardment
(~3.9 billion years ago)
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History of Earth’s Climate
 Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago
 Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion
years ago
• Produced oxygen and removed carbon
dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)
• Earth went through periods of cooling
(“Snowball Earth”) and warming
 Earth began cycles of glacial and
interglacial periods ~3 million years
ago
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Earth’s Temperature
Solar
Sun
Energy

Solar

Energy

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Earth’s Temperature

Sun

Solar Radiative
Cooling
Energy

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Earth’s Temperature

Sun
Solar
Radiative
Cooling
Energy

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Earth’s Temperature

Sun

Solar
Radiative
Energy Cooling

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Sun Greenhouse Effect

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Earth’s Atmospheric Gases
Nitrogen (N2) Non-
Greenhouse
99%
Oxygen (O2) Gases

Water (H2O)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Greenhouse


1%
Gases
Methane (CH4)
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Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect

 97% carbon
dioxide
 3% nitrogen
 Water & sulfuric
acid clouds Venus
 Temperature:
860°F

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Carbon Dioxide

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Carbon Dioxide Levels
420 Muana Loa Readings
CO2 Levels Since 1958

CO2 (ppm)
370 370
350
CO2 (ppm)

330
320 310
40 30 20 10 0

270

220
Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core
170 600000 400000 200000 13 0
Time (YBP)
Worldwide Carbon Emissions
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Carbon (109 metric tons)

Total
7 Liquid fuel
6 Solid fuel
Gas fuel
5
4
3
2
1
0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
14

Year
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)
Annual Carbon Emissions
Annual carbon emissions
Atmospheric CO2
6 Atmospheric CO2 average

0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
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Year
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
 Increasing CO2 emissions, especially
in China and developing countries
 Likely to double within 150 years:
• Increased coal usage
• Increased natural gas usage
• Decreased petroleum usage (increased
cost and decreasing supply)

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Kyoto Protocol
 Adopted in 1997
 Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990
levels for 2008-2012
 Symbolic only, since cuts will not
significantly impact global warming

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Past Temperatures

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Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
0.8
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)

0.6

0.4 Decreasing
Flat
0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
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Year
Historic Los Angeles Temperatures
Annual Temperatures Summer Temperatures Winter Temperatures
22 25 17

21 24 16

20 23 15
Temperature (°C)

19 22 14

18 21 13

17 20 12

16 19 11

15 18 10
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
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Year Year Year
2007 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980

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-3 -2.5 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.1 .1 .5 1 1.5 2.5 3.4
Past Temperatures Measurement
 Proxy – a method that approximates
a particular measurement (e.g.,
temperature)
• Ice cores
• Pollen records
• Plant macrofossils
• Sr/Ca isotope data
• Oxygen isotopes from speleothem
calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)
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Temperature History of the Earth
 Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler
 Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C
warmer than today
 Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years
 Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
Atlantic
 Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
circulation →
 Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline
circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a
large lake in Canada flooded the North
Atlantic 23
Main Ocean Currents

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Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2


Temperature History of the Earth
 For the past 3 million years, the earth
has been experiencing ~100,000 year
long cycles of glaciation followed by
~10,000 year long interglacial periods
 These climate periods are largely the
result of cycles in the earth’s orbit –
precession, obliquity, and eccentricity

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Orbital Parameters: Precession

Apehelion Perihelion

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axis of something rotating changes its direction
Orbital Parameters: Obliquity
24.5°
22.5°

the angle between the planes of the earth's equator and orbit 27
Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity
Maximum: 0.061

Minimum: 0.005

Apehelion
Apehelion Perihelion

To Scale!
Not to scale!
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measure of how an orbit deviates from circular.


Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate

Precession
(22 ky)

Obliquity
(41 ky)
Eccentricity
(100 ky)

Temperature

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 29

Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
 For the past 3 million years, the earth
has been experiencing ~100,000 year
long cycles of glaciation followed by
~10,000 year long interglacial periods
 Last ice age began to thaw 15,000
years ago, but was interrupted by the
“Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years
ago

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Younger Dryas Event
-25 Younger 0.35

Snow Accumulation (m/yr)


Dryas
-30 0.30
Temperature (°C)

Medieval Warm
-35 0.25

-40 Ice Age Little Ice Age 0.20


-45 0.15

-50 0.10

-55 0.05
20 15 10 5 0 31

Age (kya)
Younger Dryas Event
-8.0 -34
Younger
-7.5 Dryas -35
-36

O (Greenland)
-7.0
-37
O (China)

-6.5 -38
-6.0 -39
-5.5 -40
18

-41

18
δ

-5.0
-42

δ
-4.5 -43
-4.0 -44
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 32

Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)
 Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.

• 20°C higher at high latitudes


• 1°C higher at the Equator
 Sea levels were 100 ft higher
 Causes
• CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher
• Increased thermohaline circulation

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Temperature History of the Earth
Eocene (41 million years ago)
 Opening of the Drake Passage

(between South America and


Antarctica).
 Increased ocean current exchange

• Strong global cooling


• First permanent glaciation of Antarctica
~34 million years ago

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Temperature History of the Earth
Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)
 Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C

 Causes

• Increased volcanism
• Rapid release of methane from the
oceans

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Temperature History of the Earth
Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)
 Much warmer

 Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland

 Causes

• Different ocean currents (continental


arrangement)
• higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times
higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
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Recent Temperature
Changes

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“Hockey Stick” Controversey
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)

Direct temperature measurements


0.4 Mann et al. 1999
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year 38
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
2
Temperature Change (°C)

Mann et al. 1999


Esper et al. 2002
1

-1

-2
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year 39
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
0.4
Temperature Change (°C)

0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Mann et al. 1999
-0.8 Esper et al. 2002
-1.0 Moberg et al. 2005
Mann et al. 2008
-1.2
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
Year 40
U.S. National Academy of
Sciences: June 2006
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)

“2:1 chance of being right” “high level of confidence”


0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year 41
Atmospheric Temperatures
Troposphere Stratosphere
0.8 1.5
Temperature Cgange (°C)

0.6
1.0
0.4
0.2 0.5

0.0 0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6 -1.0
1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 42
Year Year
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
370

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific


CO2 (ppm) Antarctica

320 31
30
270 29
28
220 27
26
170
600000 400000 200000 025 43

Time (YBP)
Consequences of
Global Warming

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Global Warming Primarily Impacts the
Northern Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
1.0
Temperature Change (°C)

Northern Hemisphere Land


0.8 Southern Hemisphere Ocean
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1920 1960 2000 1920 1960 2000
Year Year 45
2007 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980

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-3 -2.5 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.1 .1 .5 1 1.5 2.5 3.4


Ice Sheets Melting?
 GRACE (gravity measured by
satellite) found melting of Antarctica
equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4
mm/year (2 in/century)
 Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar
altimetry)
• confirmed Antarctica melting
• Greenland ice melting on
exterior, accumulating inland
(higher precipitation) 47
Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro

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Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass
1000
800
600
Ice Mass (km3)

400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
2003 2004 2005 49

Year
Rise in Sea Levels?
 Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century)
 Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ±
0.006 mm/yr2
 If acceleration continues, could result
in 12 in/century sea level rise
 Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more
rise are unrealistic
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Changing Sea Levels
20

Global Temperature Change


Relative Sea Level (cm)

10

-10 Amsterdam, Netherlands


Brest, France
Swinoujscie, Poland
-20
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 200051

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5


Sea Levels for 450,000 Years
20 31

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific


0 30
Sea Level (m)

-20
29
-40
28
-60
-80 27
-100 26
-120 25
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Time (KYBP)
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Increase in Hurricanes?
15
Two studies showed the total number
Data Unreliable
SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)

of hurricanes has not changed


 However, the intensity of hurricanes
10
has increased (more category 4 and
5 hurricanes and cyclones)
5Probably due to higher sea surface

temperatures (more energy)


Scaled August-October
Sea-Surface Temperature
 Difficult to know if Adjusted
this trend will
Atlantic Storm
Power Dissipation Index
0continue
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
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How Much Temperature Increase?
 Some models propose up to 9°C
increase this century
 Two studies put the minimum at
1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or
6.2°C
 Another study puts the minimum at
2.5°C

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Wildlife Effects
 Polar Bears
• Require pack ice to live
• Might eventually go extinct in the wild
 Sea turtles
• Breed on the same islands as
their birth
• Could go extinct on some islands
as beaches are flooded
 Other species may go extinct as rainfall
patterns change throughout the world
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Effect on Humans
 Fewer deaths from cold, more from
heat
 Decreased thermohaline circulation
• Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
 CO2 fertilization effect
 Precipitation changes
 Droughts and famine (some areas)
 Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

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Potential Worldwide Precipitation
Changes

-50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50 57


Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad

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Cost to Stabilize CO2
1800
Concentrations
Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
450 550 650 750
59

Carbon Dioxide (ppm)


Possible Solutions
to Global Warming

60
Mitigation of Global Warming
 Conservation
• Reduce energy needs
• Recycling
 Alternate energy sources
• Nuclear
• Wind
• Geothermal
• Hydroelectric
• Solar
• Fusion? 61
Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations
1.
1. Depleted
Depleted oiloil and
and gas
gas reservoirs
reservoirs
2.
2. CO
CO22 in
in enhanced
enhanced oil
oil and
and gas
gas recovery
recovery
3.
3. Deep
Deep saline
saline formations
formations –– (a)
(a) offshore
offshore (b)
(b) onshore
onshore
4.
4. CO
CO22 in
in enhanced
enhanced coal
coal bed
bed methane
methane recovery
recovery
1 4
3
3 b
2
a

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Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7


Conclusions
 Global warming is happening
 Most warming is probably the result of
human activities
 There will be positive and negative
(mostly) repercussions from global
warming
 The costs to mitigate global warming
will be high – better spent elsewhere?

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