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Dollar Index (180 minute) y?

-g- alt: y
80.75
80.68

-e-
79.53
w x2?
-c-
-c-
78.45 78.68
-f-

-d-
-a-

-b-
76.60
-a-
-b- x1
Whenever a market makes a very sharp and unidirectional move the way the DXY did today, we must pay
attention. I’ve marked with green arrows the other times, during this advance, that the market made an extremely
sharp move higher. These other instances resulted in higher prices. The model here moves the y-wave
conclusion up a few days from previous models. The move from 76.6080.68 is also entirely consistent with a
“diametric.” It’s possible that the x2 wave has already concluded and we’re on our way for another move higher.
“Amazingly,” the market held classic support into the 79.53 level that was previously identified. Another interesting
tidbit to this model (and a theme that was discussed yesterday): the 61.8% of x1=x2 value was 79.54. Our
previous model for this market remains a consideration as well, that the y-wave did not conclude until 80.75. We
should get a few answers today and tomorrow.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


y
-g-
Dollar Index (180 minute) ~ “Unorthodox model” -e-
80.75

REPRINTED 2/17/2010
-c-

-f- 79.53
w -a-
-c-
78.45
78.68
-d- x2?

-b-

76.94

-a- x1
-b-
It seems as though the “diametric” model has done a good job of predicting the end of the of the wave up from
76.94. As noted on the previous slide, my bias is for an x-wave development from here. On several occasions
I’ve mentioned the idea that waves moving in the same direction, and of the same degree, often relate by a
Fibonacci factor. This includes waves moving in opposition to the prevailing trend. With that in mind, the
following levels might be targets of the next decline:
79.24: 100.0% of x1=x2
78.66: 138.2% of x1=x2 (look how well that aligns with previous chart support)
78.31: 161.8% of x1=x2 (look how well that aligns with the W-Wave peak of 78.45)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


(Z)
“c” S&P 500 (60 min.) - A Triangle Forming off the Lows?
1050

This model is not inspiring much confidence. It’s on it’s last leg…..1098 was a target and it has stopped into that level,
but where is the “rejection?” A resistance level is supposed to trigger a dramatic reversal. Where is it? The area in the
box looks like “congestion” near the high, so not really a reversal. It actually looks like a very small triangle forming into
the highs, which means we might get one more little blast, and then a reversal. The bottom line: If this market does not
reverse today, then I’ll have to rethink this model and probably exit the maximum short position.

(x) (a)
(w)
[c]
1104.7
(c)?
[c]
(x) [b]
-x-
(e)
[a]
[a]
[b] [.d]
[.b]
(y)
[a]
1071.6 [.e] (d)?
(z) [b]
Target for the (c) wave: -w-
1098 = 161.8% of (a) [.c]

[.a]

1044.5
[c]
(b)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


S&P 500 (60 min.) - A Triangle Forming off the Lows?
(Z)
“c”
1050
This model is up against the wall today. This market must peak and reverse very soon. The main target remaining
is 1098, for a 161.8% of (a)=(c). Classic chart resistance is at 1105, so the resistance zone is clearly defined
between 1098 and 1105. If that zone gives way, then this market could retest the highs of 1050.

REPRINTED 2/17/2010
(x)
(a)
(w)
[c]
1104.7 (c)?
[b] [c]
(x)
-x-
(e)
[a]
[a]
[b] [.d]
[.b]
(y)
[a]

1071.6 [.e] (d)?


(z) [b]

Target for the (c) wave: -w-


1098 = 161.8% of (a) [.c]
[.a]

1044.5
[c]
(b)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


Sugar #11 ~ Daily 30.47

“Choppy” move higher

Sharp move down

I’m not going to make any technical comments on this chart. Though, it may be worth noting that
my very first Sugar report (8/10/2009) gave two ultimate targets for the entire advance: 29.68 and
31.47. This market found resistance into 30.47, near the middle of those two numbers. This
current wave down off the highs looks “ugly.”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


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