Recent Trends and Challenges in Civil

Engineering-2014
MNNIT Allahabad
Paper Title: A Novel Freight Traffic Forecasting Algorithm
using Econometric Modeling as per IRC Guidelines

Presented By:
Mukul Garg
Student, National Institute of Technology, Raipur

Traffic Forecasting
WHAT IS IT??

Predicting, number of vehicles using

a particular road in horizon years

Importance
Predicts economic feasibility of a project
Helpful in pavement design
Helps maintain require level of serviceability
of pavement

Econometric Model
An

econometric

model

specifies

thestatistical relationship that is believed

to hold between the various economic
quantities

pertaining

to

particular

economic phenomenon under study.

Pitfalls of an inaccurate forecasting

model
Irrelevant parameters
Incorrect or inconsistent data set
Too many parameters

Various Freight Demand

Models
Statistical-descriptive models
Network-based Spatial Price Equilibrium (SPE)
models
Multi-sectorial multi-regional macro-economic
models

Approach : Modified IRC

Identifying growth rate as function of
elasticity of demand and economic
factor
Traffic growth rate (G) = Elasticity (E) Economic
factor (F)

Calculation of base year Economic

factor and Elasticity
Projection of Elasticity values for
future years
Economic factor remains constant as

Parameters under
consideration
Global Parameters
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Net state domestic product (NSDP)
Gross national product (GNP)

Local Parameters
Per Capita net district domestic product(PCNDDP)
Net district domestic product (NDDP)
Commodity wise sectorial growth

Methodology
For Elasticity, Cumulative Average
Growth Rate (CAGR) is calculated
using time-series analysis of
registration data of previous years
(ln-ln Regression)
Economic factor is calculated using
weighted commodity-wise sectorial
growth rate of economic factor

Flow Chart of Proposed

Model

Case Study
The developed algorithm has been
validated with a selected project stretch of
National highway NH-56 in the state of
Uttar Pradesh in India.

Data Collection
Primary Data Sources:
surveys like registration plate survey and
O-D survey was carried out to identify the
Secondary Data Sources:
Socio-Economic Review of PIA states
Road transport year book

Results

Growth rates of economic factor (sectorial Growth) for the base year _PIAcommodity influence

Results

Elasticity of Demand for Freight Vehicles

Results
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
Traffic Growth rate, %
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%

2011-2015

2016-2020

2021-2025

2026-2030

2031-2035

-2.00%
-4.00%
LM V NSDP-Sectorwise LM V NSDP
3AT NSDP

LCV NSDP-Sectorwise LCV NSDP 2AT NSDP-Sectorwise 2AT NSDP 3AT NSDP-Sectorwise

M AV NSDP-Sectorwise M AV NSDP

Conclusions
The model prepared is more robust
which is primarily due to inclusion of
local parameters and commodity
wise growth.
Limitations:
Economic Factor remains constant

Future scope of work

Varying economic factor
Inclusion of land use pattern
Inclusion of policy indicators

References

IRC SP: 19-2001, Manual for Survey, Investigation

and Preparation of Road Projects Published by Indian
Road Congress, Jamnagar house, Shahjahan Road,
New Delhi.

Vieira, L.F., The value of service in freight

transportation, PHD thesis, MIT Cambridge Mass.,
USA, 1993.

Cascetta, E.et.al., Multi-regional input-output model

with elastic trade coefficients for the simulation of
freight transport demand in Italy, Proceedings of 7 th
WCTR, Sidney.

THANK YOU