You are on page 1of 148

Countries and Concepts: Politics, Geography, Culture, 13e

Michael G. Roskin

Chapter 12
Iran

© 2016, 2013, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Persian domes inspired architecture far and wide,
even in Russia.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning Objectives
12.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its
neighboring countries.
12.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic
political system.
12.3 Demonstrate the relationship between
Islam and modernization.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning Objectives 12. 2008 by Pearson Education.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. . Inc. 2012. © 2016. 12. All rights reserved.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy.

. Inc.Iran © 2016. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012.

but also has to deal with the problems associated with sudden oil wealth. 2012.Why Iran Matters • Studying Iran allows us to understand a Middle East caught between Islam and modernization. • Iran differs from its neighbors in terms of language and religion. . All rights reserved. © 2016. Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education.

is another on the way? • Is Iran’s theocracy a solution to the problem of modernization in Muslim lands? If not. 2012.Why Iran Matters • Can the Middle East and Iran safely move to democracy? – The elections of 2013 showed how much people want change. All rights reserved. Inc. • Iran has experienced one revolution. . what is? © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education.

Inc. – Ranges from rainless desert to sheep pastures.Impact of the Past 12. 2012. © 2016. . • Much of Iran is an arid plateau about 4. a major crossroads of civilization and a great civilization itself. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved.000 feet above sea level. • Irrigation made civilization possible. • Persia’s location made it an important trade route between East and West.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.

Impact of the Past 12. Arabs. and laid the basis for future Persian culture. Mongols • A pattern of invasion. • Being at the crossroads makes you a target for conquest. 2008 by Pearson Education. new dynasties. 2012.C. Turks.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • Indo-European-speaking invaders took over Persia in the 15th century B. © 2016. . All rights reserved. and falling apart set up Iran for more easy conquests. Inc. – Greeks.

partly at the hands of outsiders. • Iran. • Both were once great civilizations that.” – When Iran awoke.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.Impact of the Past 12. which it views as an adversary. 2008 by Pearson Education. . 2012. Inc. it was far behind the West. fell into “the sleep of nations. All rights reserved. resembles China. known as Persia for most of its history. © 2016.

2008 by Pearson Education.Impact of the Past 12. 2012. or Persian. • Farsi is the majority language in Iran today.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. – Being a descendent of a non-Persian minority is sometimes held against politicians. Inc. is a part of the IndoEuropean language group. . – Non-Farsi speakers have at times become discontent with rule by Persians. All rights reserved. © 2016. • Farsi.

Inc. • Islam arrived in Persia by military conquest. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. • By 637. 2012. Zoroastrianism. • The Arab Conquest – Allah’s prophet Muhammad died in Arabia in 632. but his new faith spread like wildfire.Impact of the Past 12. . fled to India.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. © 2016. Persia was mostly Muslim and those of the old faith.

as Islam taught that all Muslims were spiritually equal. All rights reserved. – Persia adopted Arabic script and Persian culture influenced Arab culture. • The Arab Conquest – This was a major break with Persia’s past. Inc.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. . © 2016. 2012.Impact of the Past 12. 2008 by Pearson Education.

• Genghis Khan took over in 1219. All rights reserved. leading many Iranians to proclaim that even conquerors adopt their superior culture. © 2016. Inc. 2012.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • One of his descendents who ruled Persia embraced Islam.Impact of the Past 12. • The Arab Conquest – In 1055. . 2008 by Pearson Education. the Seljuk Turks invaded from Central Asia and conquered most of the Middle East.

1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.Impact of the Past 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. • The Arab Conquest – The Safavid dynasty helped to create a distinct Iran in 1501. • The Safavids practiced a minority version of Islam called Shia and decreed it Persia’s state religion. . • The attacks allowed the new regime to consolidate its control and develop a distinctly Persian Islam. All rights reserved. Inc. © 2016. • When most Persians switched from Sunni Islam. neighboring Sunni powers immediately attacked Safavid Persia.

• Western Penetration – It is too simple to say Western penetration brought down the Persian empire. – Safavid Persia was attacked from several directions. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. .Impact of the Past 12. Inc.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • Ottoman Turks from the west • Uzbeks from the north • Afghans from the east © 2016.

Impact of the Past 12. © 2016. 2012. • Western Penetration – In fighting the Ottomans. – As before.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. the Safavids made common cause with early European sea traders. a pattern continued today. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. the outsiders were able to invade because local kingdoms were weakened by war. Inc. .

Inc. after much chaos.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. Afghan invaders ended the Safavid dynasty. the Qajar clan emerged as the leading dynasty. © 2016. • Western Penetration – In 1722. – In 1795. All rights reserved. . 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. – Britain and Russia soon became dominant in Russia.Impact of the Past 12. No one was able to rule the entire country.

Persia took on semi-colonial status. Inc. • Political and economic life became dependent on imperial designs. . Western ideas about government crept into Persian society. • At the same time. All rights reserved. 2012.Impact of the Past 12. • Many Persians and Muslim clerics resented imperial influence. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Western Penetration – Like China. © 2016.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.

Inc.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. 2012. All rights reserved. .Impact of the Past 12. or the Majlis. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016. • Western Penetration – The Constitutional revolution of 1906–1907 brought Persia’s first constitution and first elected parliament.

Inc. © 2016. . All rights reserved. 2012.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • Western Penetration – Two opposing forces grew out of Persia’s relations with outsiders: • Liberals who hated the monarchy and wanted Western-type institutions.Impact of the Past 12. – Today these two strands have turned against each another over the future of Iran. – This same combination ended the Shah’s rule in 1979. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Clerics who also dislike the monarchy but wanted a stronger role for Islam.

. Inc. 2012. All rights reserved.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • They only pretended to deliver. 2008 by Pearson Education.Impact of the Past 12. increasing mass discontent. © 2016. • Western Penetration – At almost the same time—1905 in Russia and 1906 in Iran—corrupt and weak monarchies offered somewhat-democratic reforms.

Impact of the Past
12.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.

• Western Penetration
– In 1907, a new shah took the throne and shut
down the Majlis with the aid of his Russiantrained guards.
• This resulted in mass protest and the last Qajar
shah fled to Russia in 1909.
– He tried to return in 1911, at a time when Russia
occupied Tehran, but was forced back to Russia.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Past
12.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.

• Western Penetration
– A 1907 Anglo-Russia treaty split Persia in two,
with the Russians in the north and British in
the south.
• Britain exploited the oil resources it found there.

– During WWI, Persia was neutral, but its
strategic location caused contention and
chaos.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Past
12.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.

• The First Pahlavi
– In 1921, an illiterate army officer named Reza
Khan seized power and had himself crowned
shah in 1925.
– This was the start of the short-lived Pahlavi
dynasty.
• Reza Khan took the pre-Islamic surname Pahlavi.
• He also renamed the country Iran.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

and became a modernizing tyrant. Inc. but also kept the press and Majlis obedient. All rights reserved. • He built an effective army. and exploited oil revenues.Impact of the Past 12. adopted Western codes of justice.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • The First Pahlavi – Reza Shah was determined to modernize his country. . 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016.

Impact of the Past 12. – Reza Shah tilted toward Germany and in 1941 was exiled by the British to South Africa. Iran was too strategic to leave alone during WWII. © 2016. . • His son. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Again the Russians took over the north. • The First Pahlavi – As in WWI. and the British. took over.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. Muhammad Reza Pahlavi. controlled the south. Inc. 2012. and later the Americans. All rights reserved.

The oil deal was then canceled. – The Soviets did not leave. © 2016. as Stalin believed northern Iran should be a part of the Soviet empire. Iran’s PM offered Russia an oil deal and they left.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • The First Pahlavi – The Americans and British left in 1945. • In 1946. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. .Impact of the Past 12. Inc.

2012. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. . and made AIOC pay higher royalties. – The Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC) was a joint venture with Britain. – Iran benefited very little from the oil deal. • Reza Shah ended the lopsided concession with AIOC in 1932. Inc. All rights reserved.Impact of the Past 12.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • The Last Pahlavi – Oil determined much of Iran’s 20th-century history after 1908.

Inc. 2012. © 2016. All rights reserved. .Impact of the Past 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. and turned to the radical nationalist PM Muhammad Mossadeq in the early 1950s.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. • The Last Pahlavi – Iranians were still unhappy with the arrangement with the AIOC. He nationalized AIOC holdings.

© 2016. the CIA set out to destabilize the Iranian government and restore the Shah. 2008 by Pearson Education.S. • The Last Pahlavi – Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi fled in 1953 amidst turmoil and a potential tilt toward the Soviet Union. • A coup was encouraged. 2012.Impact of the Past 12.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. containment policies. . Inc. the Shah flew back and was restored. All rights reserved. – As part of U.

Inc. were very good. – Relations with the U.Impact of the Past 12. • Promoted the “White Revolution” from above. 2008 by Pearson Education. • The Last Pahlavi – Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi was a modernizing tyrant like his father.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. © 2016. 2012.S. All rights reserved. .

– Unrest and dislike of the Shah went unnoticed by the U. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. and was rapidly modernizing his country. the U.Impact of the Past 12.S. • He was a tyrant. was too close to the Shah because he was Western educated.S.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. anticommunist. • The Last Pahlavi – However. . Inc.S. All rights reserved. support alienated many Iranians. U. 2012.

• The Last Pahlavi – Not until the Islamic Revolution did the U. • U.S. 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. . © 2016. had been obsessed with communism’s threat.S. learn what the Iranian people really thought of the Shah.Impact of the Past 12. All rights reserved. Inc.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.

All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education.Impact of the Past 12. © 2016. 2012. • Revenues surged and the Shah spent the money in ways that did not benefit the people. Inc. • As a prime mover of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. . • The Last Pahlavi – Too much oil money did in the Shah. the Shah boosted prices and took over production from foreign companies.

© 2016. • The Last Pahlavi – This new wealth created resentment and great disruption. – The Shah promoted education.Impact of the Past 12. All rights reserved. . 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. but this only allowed people to see him as a tyrant.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. Inc.

2008 by Pearson Education. and the mullahs hated the influence of American culture. Inc. • The Muslim clerics had been alienated by the Shah. © 2016.1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. . some people got rich quickly while most stayed poor.Impact of the Past 12. All rights reserved. • With the oil wealth. 2012. – Corruption became worse than ever. – Many went from the countryside to the cities and turned to the mosque when they were left rootless and confused.

© 2016. – Khomeini was exiled to Iraq in 1964. • While in Paris. Ayatollah Khomeini. Khomeini taped his messages and sent them to Iran. Inc. .1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. where they were spread throughout the mosques. 2008 by Pearson Education. and then to France in 1978. 2012. • The Last Pahlavi – One critic. All rights reserved. criticized the Shah and incurred his wrath.Impact of the Past 12.

© 2016. .1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries.Impact of the Past 12. when secular intellectuals and Islamic clerics alike grew tired of the Shah. – When President Carter criticized the Shah’s record on human rights. the Shah relaxed his grip and chaos took over. Inc. 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. • The Last Pahlavi – Things came to a head in the late 1970s. All rights reserved.

• The Last Pahlavi – The problem was made worse when Carter showed support for the Shah’s efforts by exchanging visits. 2008 by Pearson Education. .1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. was supporting the tyrant Shah. All rights reserved. Inc.Impact of the Past 12. • This proved to Iranians that the U. © 2016.S. 2012.

1 Compare and contrast Iran with its neighboring countries. 1979. Inc. All rights reserved. the Shah was facing huge demonstrations and dying of cancer. • The Last Pahlavi – By late 1978. – On January 16. the last Pahlavi left Iran. © 2016. . 2012.Impact of the Past 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. The Shah was finished.

© 2016. Inc. practice Shia. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. • A minority branch of 100 million. scattered unevenly throughout the Muslim world. 2012. .Geography: Sunni and Shia • Over 80 percent of the world’s Muslims practice a mainstream branch called Sunni.

– Shias follow the Prophet’s cousin Ali. © 2016. – However.Geography: Sunni and Shia • The two branches are divided over the true successor of Muhammad. . All rights reserved. mystical. – No more fundamentalist than other strict Muslims. 2008 by Pearson Education. and crazy. Inc. 2012. Sunnis regard Shias as extremist.

2012. All rights reserved.Geography: Sunni and Shia • Only in Iran is Shia the state religion. 2008 by Pearson Education. willing to martyr themselves. . © 2016. – Iranians feel isolated but right. Inc.

• A Theocracy – Two-and-a-half millennia of monarchy ended in Iran with a 1979 referendum that introduced the Islamic Republic of Iran and a new constitution. All rights reserved.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. . • This development was carefully supervised by Khomeini. Inc. © 2016.The Key Institutions 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012.

All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. Inc. • Iran’s religious chief is far more powerful than its president. . 2012. which makes Iran a theocracy. © 2016.The Key Institutions 12. • A Theocracy – Head of state and head of government are split between the leading religious figure and a president.

2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016. • A Theocracy – Theocracy is rare and tends not to last.The Key Institutions 12.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. – For centuries. 2012. • Disliked any shah but practiced separation of church and state. . Inc. All rights reserved. Persia’s Shia clerics ignored politics.

• Clerics must now rule an Islamic republic. Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016.The Key Institutions 12. .2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. 2012. All rights reserved. • A Theocracy – Khomeini’s radical design overturned the idea that clerics and politics existed in separate spheres.

© 2016. serves for life. . the faqih. • The leading jurist or legal scholar. • A Western equivalent would be canon law of medieval Europe. or rule of the Islamic jurist. 2012. Inc.The Key Institutions 12.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. • A Theocracy – Khomeini developed the principle of the velayat-e faqih. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved.

Inc.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. even those having nothing to do with religion. • A Theocracy – Allegedly.The Key Institutions 12. • An Islamist would say everything is connected to religion. All rights reserved. . the faqih (“Supreme Leader”) can use the Koran to settle all issues. © 2016.

– Successors are chosen by the Assembly of Experts of 86 Muslim clerics every eight years. the first and founding faqih. 2012. one rank lower than an ayatollah. the clerics chose Ali Khameni. 2008 by Pearson Education. He died in 1989. – In 1989.The Key Institutions 12. was nearly all-powerful. a hojatollah. All rights reserved.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. Inc. • A Theocracy – Khomeini. © 2016. .

he is very powerful. Inc.The Key Institutions 12. but lacked Khomeini’s charisma and Islamic authority. . © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. 2012. All rights reserved. • A Theocracy – Khameini was immediately promoted to ayatollah. – Nonetheless.

2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. All rights reserved. armed forces. Inc. 2012. • A Theocracy – Khameni names all heads of major state and religious organizations and can declare war. intelligence. – He controls the judiciary. © 2016. and media.The Key Institutions 12. security police. 2008 by Pearson Education. .

. • The president may serve two four-year terms. 2012. • A Theocracy – He is more powerful than the president and can veto presidential appointments. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. – Below the Supreme Leader is an ordinary president. © 2016. • The president is elected.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system.The Key Institutions 12. Inc. but from a short list of those approved by the Council of Guardians.

• A Theocracy – The president is elected. – The president may serve two four-year terms. 2012. All rights reserved. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. .2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. – In 1997.The Key Institutions 12. Inc. but from a short list of those approved by the Council of Guardians. a relatively liberal cleric named Muhammad Khatami was elected. but his efforts to reform the system were blocked by the Supreme Leader.

© 2016. Inc. a power struggle broke out between Khameni and Ahmadinejad. but accomplished little. 2008 by Pearson Education. a moderate cleric.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. Hassan Rouhani.The Key Institutions 12. 2012. All rights reserved. was elected with vague promises to liberalize. • A Theocracy – The current president is the radical Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. . • In 2013. • In 2011. unfairly elected in 2005 and reelected in a fake landslide in 2009.

All rights reserved.The Key Institutions 12. • The Majlis sometimes disagrees with presidents and can block presidential proposals. . 2012. Inc. © 2016. • Iran’s Legislature – Iran has a unicameral legislature called the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis). 2008 by Pearson Education.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. – The Majlis has 290 deputies elected to fouryear terms.

2012. • A limited number of additional seats are held for non-Muslim deputies. Inc. © 2016.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. . 2008 by Pearson Education. – All 18-year-olds can vote.The Key Institutions 12. • Iran’s Legislature – Iran uses SMD with plurality to elect 265 deputies. All rights reserved.

2008 by Pearson Education. . – MPs are constitutionally immune from arrest.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. but those who speak too loudly for reforms are often jailed. • Iran’s Legislature – The Speaker of parliament is an important position. All rights reserved. 2012. Inc. © 2016.The Key Institutions 12.

– The Council of Guardians must approve all candidates. 2008 by Pearson Education. thousands who might be critical are disqualified. 2012.The Key Institutions 12. Inc. but permission to run is tightly controlled.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. except in 2009. . is generally free and fair. © 2016. All rights reserved. • Iran’s Legislature – Electoral balloting.

the High Court of Justice. All rights reserved. electoral commission.The Key Institutions 12. no openly liberal candidates were allowed. and religious institution. • In 2012. – The Council has 12 members. . Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Iran’s Legislature – The Council of Guardians is like a mixture of an upper house. six selected by the faqih and six by Iran’s supreme court. supreme court.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. – Members of the Council serve six years each. 2012. © 2016.

.The Key Institutions 12. Inc. • Without Council approval. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. © 2016. 2012. a bill is vetoed. • All reform-oriented bills are blocked this way.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. • Iran’s Legislature – The Council evaluates each Majlis bill to make sure it does not violate Islamic principles.

All rights reserved. 2012. Expediency Council appointed by the Supreme Leader is like another legislature. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Iran’s Legislature – To settle disputes between the Majlis and the Council. • Since 2005. . the Expedience Council oversees the president. Inc. © 2016.The Key Institutions 12.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system.

2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. Inc.The Key Institutions 12. 2012. • This makes the Iranian system unreformable. All rights reserved. The Council of Guardians will have to go if there is to be serious change in Iran. . • Iran’s Legislature – The Council of Guardians approves or rejects all candidates.

but they are not allowed. Iranian elections are often decided by late swings that come out of nowhere. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016. All rights reserved. . as voters cannot discern what candidates stand for without party affiliation. – Only individual candidates are allowed to run. • Emerging Parties? – Parties are not illegal under Iran’s constitution. 2012. – Lack of parties make Iranian election less than free.The Key Institutions 12. Inc. – Without party IDs.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system.

2012. . Inc. candidates are linked to informal parties called “fronts” or “coalitions. All rights reserved. • Emerging Parties? – Informally.” – These may eventually turn into legal parties.The Key Institutions 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system.

• Radicals preach populist help for the poor and hatred of the U. • Conservatives want a nonfanatic Islamic Republic with economic growth. © 2016. 2012. • Emerging Parties? – Observers see four main political groupings plus factions and individual viewpoints.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system.S. Inc.The Key Institutions 12. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. .

2012. civil rights. • Reformists favor privatization. open elections. . and totally free elections. © 2016. Inc. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Liberals emphasize democracy. • Emerging Parties? – Observers see four main political groupings plus factions and individual viewpoints.The Key Institutions 12.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. and a weaker Council. but are a mixed bag economically.

2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016. • Emerging Parties? – Some of the regime’s sharpest critics were leaders of the 1979 revolution who now dislike its authoritarianism.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. All rights reserved. Inc. .The Key Institutions 12. 2012.

the power of the Supreme Leader will have to be reduced. the Council of Guardians will need to be abolished. institutional changes will have to be made. • First. However. • Emerging Parties? – Iran is a political system waiting to be free. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. • Second. . Inc.The Key Institutions 12.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. 2012.

and a free press. a multiparty system. • Emerging Parties? – With these changes. Iran could turn into a real democracy with an executive president.2 Outline the difficulties of a theocratic political system. .The Key Institutions 12. a critical Majlis. © 2016. – Iran has the greatest democratic potential of any Persian Gulf country. 2012. All rights reserved. Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education.

won 51 percent of the first-round vote. © 2016. 2012. All rights reserved.Democracy: Iran’s Half-fair Presidential Election • There was hope for change with Iran’s 2013 election. – Hassan Rouhani. Inc. – The possibility of change energized Iranian liberals. . 2008 by Pearson Education. a moderate and pragmatist.

– Iranians turned out to protest this fraud. he was declared winner. Ahmadinejad was behind in polls.Democracy: Iran’s Half-fair Presidential Election • The 2013 election was not completely democratic. dissent was put down. – Just before the 2009 election. © 2016. but immediately after the polls closed. . but much better than 2009. 2012. All rights reserved. Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education.

he proved to be uninterested in change. – However. the regime allowed the moderate Rouhani to win. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016.Democracy: Iran’s Half-fair Presidential Election • In 2013. . All rights reserved. Inc. 2012.

– Rouhani was elected to the Majlis in 1980 and served there for 20 years in various important positions as a rigid Islamist. © 2016. . Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education.Personalities Hassan Rouhani • Hassan Rouhani won the 2013 presidential election. he resigned many of his positions. – Under Ahmadinejad. – His years of study at Scotland’s Glasgow University seem to have changed him and made him more moderate. 2012. All rights reserved.

• However. 2008 by Pearson Education. . © 2016. he was unable or unwilling to implement promised and much-needed reforms. Rouhani has entered into negotiations to settle the nuclear issue in hopes of reopening foreign trade.Personalities Hassan Rouhani • As president. 2012. Inc. All rights reserved.

. © 2016. • Many Iranians do not want their traditional culture replaced in favor of Western culture.Iranian Political Culture 12.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. Inc. All rights reserved.

Inc. All rights reserved. as with Japan. 2012. – Flexibility.Iranian Political Culture 12. 2008 by Pearson Education.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. may be the key factor. © 2016. • A key question today: can Third-World countries become modern while preserving their old culture? – Islamic nations have had little success in doing this. .

gave meaning and solace to the lives of most Persians. Inc. the mosque. All rights reserved. 2012. • Persian society. . conservative and stable. and the mullah.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. was successful in keeping its traditions during change. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. – Islam.Iranian Political Culture 12. the Koran.

petroleum development.Iranian Political Culture 12. © 2016. • Modernization. and the Pahlavi shahs. Inc. All rights reserved. under foreign pressure. . 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. changed everything.

Inc. All rights reserved. • Modernization theory is said to work like this. 2008 by Pearson Education. .3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. – People consume more mass media and become aware. – The economy goes through several transitions. 2012. © 2016. – Education levels rise.Iranian Political Culture 12. – With urbanization people move into the cities.

• Modernization theory is said to work like this.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. All rights reserved. and resent being treated like children. Inc. • Optimistically. – Interest groups emerge. 2012. this process leads to democracy. – A large middle class emerges. . © 2016.Iranian Political Culture 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. – People begin to want to participate in politics.

2012. © 2016. All rights reserved. • Iran’s Islamic Revolution makes us question the inevitability of secularization.Iranian Political Culture 12. Inc.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. • It was long believed that secularization comes with modernization. 2008 by Pearson Education. .

All rights reserved. many intellectuals embraced socialism and nationalism. • In the Muslim world. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. only to despair and return to Islam. .Iranian Political Culture 12. people may turn to religion with renewed fervor. 2012.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. • When things change too fast and the economy declines. Inc. – Religion gives stability and meaning to life.

Iranian Political Culture 12. a corrupt and rigid elite may block reforms until chaos is unleashed. • However. . Inc. • An old elite that understands the changes will gradually allow democratization and avoid destabilization. 2012. • The time of modernization is a risky one in the life of a nation. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016. All rights reserved.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization.

– The Shah was arrogant.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. . scorned democracy.Iranian Political Culture 12. All rights reserved. © 2016. Inc. and thought his despotism would lead to Iran surpassing the West. • Iran under the Shah is an example of how acting too late fosters instability and simply leads to tyranny by another. 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education.

Iranian Political Culture
12.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization.

• When a country is poor and ignorant,
absolute rule works.
• When a country begins to modernize,
absolute rule is bound to fail.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Iranian Political Culture
12.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization.

• Islam as a Political Ideology
– Some object to the term “Islamic
fundamentalism.”
• Fundamentalism refers to strict interpretation of
Scripture.
• This is how nearly all Muslims view the Koran.

– A better name may be Islamic integralism,
indicating a move to integrate the Koran and
sharia with government.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Iranian Political Culture
12.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization.

• Islam as a Political Ideology
– Khomeini devised an interesting ideology that
resonated with many Iranians.
• Shia Islam disdains politics. Khomeini felt religious
leaders should assume political power while
awaiting the return of the Twelfth Imam.
• Some called this Islamism, and it was economic,
social, and nationalistic.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

• Islam as a Political Ideology – Khomeini blamed the Shah for abandoning Islam and turning away from social and economic justice by selling out Iran to Americans. . 2012. All rights reserved. © 2016.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization.Iranian Political Culture 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. Inc.

2012. • It is a potent mix. All rights reserved. • Islamism preaches leveling class differences through the mosque. not through the party. Inc. but probably can’t work. . Iranians would cleanse themselves spiritually and build a just society of equals.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Islam as a Political Ideology – By returning to the Koran. – This is a catchall ideology offering an answer to most things that made Iranians discontent.Iranian Political Culture 12. © 2016.

3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. . 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. – Even if the mullahs could be overthrown.Iranian Political Culture 12. • Democracy and Authority – Observers estimate only a minority of Iranians support the current regime. could Iranians establish a stable democracy? – The Iranian Revolution in 1979 saw secularist intellectuals come together with Islamists. 2012. © 2016. Inc.

• Since 1979. • Democracy and Authority – But after the overthrow of the Shah.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. Inc. All rights reserved.Iranian Political Culture 12. the Islamists took power and many secular democrats fled. © 2016. over two million have left Iran. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. .

2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. they strongly supported Rouhani. © 2016. . • Democracy and Authority – However. All rights reserved.Iranian Political Culture 12. they speak poorly of the regime. They believe the system was hijacked by Islamists. but that the impulse for democracy rather than theocracy remains. many secular democrats also stayed behind. • In 2013. Inc. • In private.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. – These people believe Iranians are capable of democracy.

• Democracy and Authority – If the regime ever opens up. All rights reserved.S. most remain quiet. © 2016. secular democrats will demand free and open elections.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. – For now. listening for critical views from the large Iranian community in the U. . 2012. Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education.Iranian Political Culture 12.

All rights reserved. Inc. • Ahmadinejad tried to fuse Shia Islam with Iranian nationalism. – Like China. 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. where it has always been strong.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. © 2016. .Iranian Political Culture 12. • Iranian Nationalism – Nationalism is making a comeback in Iran. • Iran may now be more motivated by nationalism than by religious fervor. Iran is looking to increase its power and prestige.

© 2016.Iranian Political Culture 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. Inc. – By adopting Shia. All rights reserved. 2012.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. recalling the days of the Arab conquest and seeing them as culturally inferior. . Iran distinguished itself from its mostly Sunni neighbors. • Iranian Nationalism – Iranians dislike Arabs.

3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. • If Islam got in the way. it would be pushed aside. the Shah’s true spirit was secularization and nationalism: to rebuild the glory of ancient Persia. Inc. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. • He was Muslim and had himself photographed during his haji (pilgrimage). • Iranian Nationalism – The Shah stressed Persian nationalism in his drive to modernize.Iranian Political Culture 12. . • However. All rights reserved. 2012.

2012. • Baha’is are Iran’s largest minority religion.Iranian Political Culture 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. but since the Revolution. © 2016. – For centuries. non-Muslims have been treated harshly. and they are regarded as dangerous heretics. • Iranian Nationalism – The Shah was tolerant of non-Muslims. Iran’s sense of Persianness coexisted uneasily with Islam. – The Shah’s modernization programs brought the two strands into open conflict. Inc. . All rights reserved.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization.

but was second to religion. • Iranians were fighting for faith and country. – The long and horrible war with Iraq in the 1980s brought out the regime’s Persian nationalism. 2008 by Pearson Education. Inc. .Iranian Political Culture 12.3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. • Iranian Nationalism – Nationalism did not fade with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. © 2016. 2012. All rights reserved.

© 2016. Iran celebrates Persian holidays. • Iranian Nationalism – Today. which are happy. 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. mostly mournful.Iranian Political Culture 12. Inc. and Islamic holidays. .3 Demonstrate the relationship between Islam and modernization. All rights reserved.

© 2016. • Religion as a Political Tool – Khomeini manipulated.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. Inc. • The Islamists enlisted all kinds of anti-Shah groups. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. and discarded those who helped win the Iranian Revolution in 1979. . All rights reserved.Patterns of Interaction 12. • The Islamists hijacked the Revolution as it unfolded. used. had them do the dirty work. and then crushed any democratic growth after the overthrow of the Shah.

© 2016. to gain authority and command obedience. . • Through all of this. 2008 by Pearson Education. Inc. and to consolidate power. 2012. used.Patterns of Interaction 12.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. • Religion as a Political Tool – Khomeini manipulated. All rights reserved. and discarded those who helped win the Iranian Revolution in 1979. the Islamists used their religion as a tool to recruit and mobilize.

2012. © 2016. Inc.Patterns of Interaction 12. . • This leads to regime decay as the ruling group turns into a self-serving new class.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. • Religion as a Political Tool – The Islamists were serious about Islam. • Regimes based on ideology and/or religion have finite life spans and eventually lose legitimacy. All rights reserved. • After some time immersed in politics. the uses of their faith were less devotional and more instrumental. – Iran’s Islamic Revolution is burning itself out. 2008 by Pearson Education. the power side takes over and dominates the religious side. but during the Revolution.

S. Student militants seized the embassy and held 52 people hostage for 444 days. All rights reserved. 2012. Inc. • The incident was really a domestic power play manipulated by Khomeini. 2008 by Pearson Education.Patterns of Interaction 12. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 is an example of this. • This seemed to prove that fanatics governed Iran. .4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. © 2016. • Religion as a Political Tool – The seizure of the U.

All rights reserved. • Religion as a Political Tool – Islamic activists stirred up anti-American hysteria to consolidate their power. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Khomeini’s followers enjoyed watching President Carter’s weakness. which later cost him the 1980 election. . 2012.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. Inc.Patterns of Interaction 12. and forced the moderate PM out of office along with other moderates.

© 2016. All rights reserved.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.Patterns of Interaction 12. . 2012. Inc. • Religion as a Political Tool – Eventually the ordeal came to an end when holding the hostages was no longer of any utility for Khomeini. 2008 by Pearson Education.

Moderates and Islamists in Iran © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. 2012. . Inc.

All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Much of Iranian politics is an unseen clash between conservative moderates and radical Islamists. but the former are more pragmatic and the latter more revolutionary. • Both are conservative. . • However. the conservatives support a free market. 2012.Patterns of Interaction 12. • Both are strongly Muslim and support the Revolution. © 2016.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. while radicals want state controls. Inc.

2008 by Pearson Education.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. All rights reserved. • 1986 Iran-Contra fiasco © 2016. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Regime change may come from the struggle within and not from outside pressures. Inc. 2012. .Patterns of Interaction 12.

all clerics. 2012. .4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. • Conservatives are typified by Presidents Rafsanjani. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Conservative moderates want to preserve the Republic but consider the radicals reckless and dangerous. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. All rights reserved. but after the rigged 2009 election. Khatami. Inc. publicly denounced Anmadinejad.Patterns of Interaction 12. – Conservatives prefer to exercise their influence quietly. and Rouhani.

. 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. Inc. – The alienation of conservatives from the current regime spelled serious trouble for him. © 2016.Patterns of Interaction 12. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Ahmadinejad relied more and more on the Revolutionary Guard and less on the clergy. All rights reserved.

© 2016. Inc.Patterns of Interaction 12. . 2008 by Pearson Education. • Liberalizing reforms and dissent are blocked. 2012. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Militant Islamists like Ahmadinejad want a truly Islamic Republic. Anything else means giving to Iran’s enemies.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. All rights reserved.

© 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education.Patterns of Interaction 12. • They have their own army. . and air force. and supervise Iran’s nuclear program. who are now separate from the regular armed forces. • Former Guard members occupy one-third of the Majlis. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Radical Islamists tried to control the Revolutionary Guards. navy. All rights reserved. Inc. dominate defense and intelligence. run industries.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. 2012.

© 2016. an Islamist militia under the Guards with branches in most mosques. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education.Patterns of Interaction 12. 2012. Inc. . • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Another radical support is the Basij.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

which selects the next Supreme Leader. • Reformists and conservatives beat Ahmadinejad supporters for seats on municipal councils and the Majlis in 2008. All rights reserved. Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education. .4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. 2012. © 2016. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Recent Iranian opinion has trended against the radicals.Patterns of Interaction 12. • Conservatives won control of the Assembly of Experts.

• Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Recent Iranian opinion has trended against the radicals. Inc. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Populist Ahmadinejad likely would have likely lost a fair election in 2009. • Moderate Rohani won in 2013 with the Ayatollah’s support. 2012. . All rights reserved.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.Patterns of Interaction 12.

© 2016. Inc. All rights reserved. but stand no chance of having success.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.Patterns of Interaction 12. • Moderates and Islamists in Iran – Other Iranians look to get rid of the whole Islamic Revolution. 2008 by Pearson Education. . 2012. but are unlikely to succeed. – A few monarchists wish to restore the son of the last Pahlavi.

Patterns of Interaction
12.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

• Moderates and Islamists in Iran
– Other Marxist-type revolutionaries, the
Mujahedin-e Khalq, are a minority group who
try to overthrow the Islamists.
• Some of this group fought with the Revolutionaries
in 1979, only to be executed by Khomeini after the
Revolution. Even Washington now considers them
a crazy cult.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of Interaction
12.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

• The Revolution Burns Out
– Iran illustrates Crane Brinton’s 1938 theory of
revolution.
• Antiregime groups form and the Shah leaves.
• Moderates take power, but are driven out by
ruthless Islamists.
• Eventually there is a Thermidor, or calming-down
period.
• Khatami’s 1997 election may actually mark the
Thermidor.
© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of Interaction
12.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

• The Revolution Burns Out
– No revolution lasts forever.
• In Iran there is an effort to become more stable
and normal.
• This is opposed by Islamic radicals, but time is
probably on the side of the normalizers.

– Many mullahs have become rich, powerful,
and corrupt.

© 2016, 2012, 2008 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

All rights reserved. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. and can vote at 18.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution.Patterns of Interaction 12. Inc. • The Revolution Burns Out – Many Iranians want the mullahs to return to the mosques and get out of government and the economy. . 2012. – Younger Iranians do not remember the Shah and have no connection to the Revolution. • Many mullahs also wish this. • Young Iranians want jobs and freedom.

but Khatami was blocked from doing this.Patterns of Interaction 12. Rouhani started a dialog with Washington in 2013. . • International inspection of Iran’s nuclear sites would be another indicator. Inc.S. 2008 by Pearson Education.4 Apply Brinton’s theory of revolution to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. 2012. © 2016. would be an indicator. • The Revolution Burns Out – When can we can the Iranian Revolution is finally over? • Reestablishment of diplomatic relations with the U. All rights reserved.

What Iranians Quarrel About 12. © 2016. • Infant mortality. and literacy have improved dramatically. • Rural areas are much better off. 2012. .5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education. life expectancy. All rights reserved. • The Political Economy of Iran – Iran has changed rapidly under both the Shah and the Islamic Revolution.

5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. war. © 2016. 2012. 2008 by Pearson Education. sanctions. Inc. and mismanagement. All rights reserved. • The Political Economy of Iran – However. the Iranian economy was hurt by revolution. . – Although oil revenues have increased. only recently has per capita GDP recovered to pre1979 levels.What Iranians Quarrel About 12.

. unemployment. • Which Way for Iran’s Economy – Iran depends totally on oil. • Wages are low.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. and poverty are major problems. 2008 by Pearson Education. Lower oil prices mean trouble. © 2016. and many business dealings happen off the books. • There is growth. Inc.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. 2012. but inflation. with many people holding 2–3 jobs. All rights reserved.

– Iran has given its people a high welfare ceiling.S. oil production has dropped. • Which Way for Iran’s Economy – Iran depends totally on oil. • The oil industry lacks up-to-date technology.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. Ahmadinejad had to drastically cut subsidies. but it is accompanied by budget deficits and inflation. All rights reserved. • In 2011. . With U. Lower oil prices mean trouble. and EU sanctions. Inc. © 2016.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. 2008 by Pearson Education. as did Rouhani in 2014. 2012.

2012.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. with 60 percent being under state control. Inc.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. • Only about 20 percent of the economy is in private hands. should it become one? © 2016. – Iran’s is not a free-market economy. All rights reserved. • Which Way for Iran’s Economy – The economy is still statist. .

5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. • Which Way for Iran’s Economy – The Majlis debates economic policy. and Islam draws from socialist practices. . All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Many moderates argue against socialism and/or statism. because they keep Iran poor and backward. which is a thinly veiled way to argue the future of Islamic rule. © 2016. 2012. Inc. • Islamism and socialism share a certain connection.What Iranians Quarrel About 12.

2012.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. 2008 by Pearson Education. so will the army and Iran’s ability to defend itself. © 2016. • That there is no Koranic basis for a state-controlled economy. All rights reserved. • That if the economy keeps declining.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. • Which Way for Iran’s Economy – Moderates also make the following arguments. Inc. • That they want free-market reforms. . which would not interfere with the social justice that Islam requires.

© 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. • That the Shah tried state ownership of industry. All rights reserved. Inc. – Rejection of the Islamic Revolution is not one of their points. 2012.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. . and this is not the way to go. • That if unemployment stays high.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. • Which Way for Iran’s Economy – Moderates also make the following arguments. especially petroleum. the republic could end.

Inc. 2008 by Pearson Education. • A Veiled Debate on Islam – Iran will always be a Muslim country.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. . but what kind of Islam will it have—moderate or militant? © 2016.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. All rights reserved. 2012.

• However. blue jeans have been frowned upon as too American. © 2016. often in the form of debates about permissible Muslim dress. .5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. • A Veiled Debate on Islam – Recent elections suggest most Iranians prefer the moderate path. Inc. public debate on the religion question is muted. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. All rights reserved.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. • Because the Council of Guardians bars liberal candidates. such discussion does happen. – Even for men.

suddenly they had to wear the veil and the head-to-toe chador. 2012. © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. . urban Iranian women dressed as fashionably as European women.What Iranians Quarrel About 12.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. – After the Revolution. • A Veiled Debate on Islam – Before the Islamic Revolution. All rights reserved. Inc.

2008 by Pearson Education.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. • Young people suspected of having a good time may be beaten by Basij. urban Iranian women are pushing these limits. – These restrictions alienate young urban and educated Iranians. 2012. All rights reserved. • They do risk Islamic morals police stopping them on the street and sending them home or to jail. © 2016. • A Veiled Debate on Islam – In subtle ways.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. Inc. .

All rights reserved. 2012. Inc.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. © 2016. . and tries to spread its revolutionary influence. • Iran as a Regional Power – Iran made no secret about wanting to become the Persian Gulf’s dominant power. – Tehran sees itself as the leader of the Islamic world. 2008 by Pearson Education. – Much of what Iran does internationally is to advance its power and acquire prestige.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. but this is increasingly unlikely.

where Shias.S. Sunni Muslims resent and fear Iran’s growing power. long a suppressed 60 percent of the population. 2012. • Iran as a Regional Power – However. 2008 by Pearson Education. now rule.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. – Thanks to the 2003 U. Inc. © 2016.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. They despise Shias. invasion of Iraq. . Iran is the most influential power in Iraq. All rights reserved.

• Iran as a Regional Power – The Sunni Arabs of central Iraq traditionally monopolized power.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. • Today. as well as in several other countries. . – The Shia connection between Iran and Iraq dates back to the Revolution. Inc.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. © 2016. 2012. Iran continues to work through its Shia brethren in Iraq.

All rights reserved.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. . Inc. Iran helps funds Hezbollah against Israel. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. © 2016. but this changed after the Revolution. • Iran as a Regional Power – Iran also proclaims its leading role in destroying Israel.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. • The Shah had good relations with Israel. • Today.

• In 2006.S. Inc. © 2016. but most do not trust its ambitions. the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) referred the matter to the United Nations. 2008 by Pearson Education. and Sunni-ruled lands of the Persian Gulf. All rights reserved. – Iran’s stonewalling on its nuclear program alienated important European countries. .What Iranians Quarrel About 12. 2012. • Iran as a Regional Power – Iran has isolated itself and has angered the U. • Iran says it needs nuclear power.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy.

2008 by Pearson Education. 2012. All rights reserved. .What Iranians Quarrel About 12. © 2016. • Iran as a Regional Power – Iran’s isolation harms its economic growth and requires it to maintain armed forces it cannot afford. Inc.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy.

They want to avoid conflict and improve relations with the the West. © 2016. Inc. .5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. 2008 by Pearson Education. no matter the cost. • Iran as a Regional Power – Many Iranians dislike being isolated.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. All rights reserved. even with America. – Radicals want to keep up militant foreign policies. 2012.

. 2012. Iran created enemies. Inc. – By expanding its power and influence. All rights reserved.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. 2008 by Pearson Education.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. • Assassinations of Iranian leaders and regime opponents. • Iran as a Regional Power – Iran has been both the victim and practitioner of terrorism. © 2016.

2012.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. © 2016. All rights reserved. The Shah was a dictator. – Iran is a good example. but the mullahs are worse. • Do Revolutions End Badly? – Edmund Burke was right. Inc. Revolution brings in its wake tyranny far worse than that of the regime it toppled. 2008 by Pearson Education. .5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy.

5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. • Crane Brinton said that revolutions fall into the hands of the most ruthless element until replaced by a Thermidor. . • Do Revolutions End Badly? – Why do revolutions end badly? • Burke argued that the destruction of institutionals and political restraints leaves a vacuum easily filled by dictators. All rights reserved. 2008 by Pearson Education. • Hannah Arendt wrote that revolution goes astray when revolutionary leaders try to address social issues. © 2016. Inc. 2012.What Iranians Quarrel About 12.

5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. © 2016. • The mullahs and others do well while others live in poverty. • Do Revolutions End Badly? – Many in Iran know the Revolution has gone wrong. • Today there is economic stagnation and unemployment. All rights reserved. . – There was economic growth and modernization under the Shah. Inc.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. 2008 by Pearson Education. 2012.

the greater the danger of violence. 2008 by Pearson Education. time and economic difficulties will calm the Iranian revolution.What Iranians Quarrel About 12. . • Do Revolutions End Badly? – Iran is caught in a stalemate between moderate and radical forces. – Most likely. the longer the regime stonewalls. All rights reserved. 2012.5 Evaluate the possibilities of Iran turning into a democracy. – However. © 2016. Inc. • The status quo is unsustainable.

Geography: Bound Israel © 2016. 2008 by Pearson Education. . Inc. 2012. All rights reserved.