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Bayesian Theorem for Decision Making

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PROBABILITY – AN

APPLICATION

Dr. Laldinliana

Department of Commerce

Mizoram University

Who is Bayes?

**Thomas Bayes (1701 – 7 April 1761) was an
**

English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian

minister, known for having formulated a specific

case of the theorem that bears his name.

The probability of any event is the ratio between

the value at which an expectation depending on

the happening of the event ought to be computed,

and the value of the thing expected upon its

happening

Why Bayesian? • Bayes’ theorem finds the actual probability of an event from the results of your tests. you can correct for measurement errors. the chance the indicator X happened given that event A occurred. If you know the real probabilities and the chance of a false positive and false negative. . and Pr(X|A). For example. Bayes’ theorem lets you relate Pr(A|X). you can: – Correct for measurement errors. the chance that an event A happened given the indicator X. – Relate the actual probability to the measured test probability.

• An article describes a cancer testing scenario: – 1% of women have breast cancer (and therefore 99% do not).4% correctly return a negative result). you can predict the actual chance of having cancer. . – 9.6% of mammograms detect breast cancer when it’s not there (and therefore 90. – 80% of mammograms detect breast cancer when it is there (and therefore 20% miss it).Example • Given mammogram test results and known error rates.

the probabilities look like this: .• Put in a table.

There’s an 80% chance you will test positive. There’s a 20% chance you will test negative.How do we read it? • 1% of people have cancer • If you already have cancer. • If you don’t have cancer. . you are in the second column. you are in the first column.6% chance you will test positive. There’s a 9.4% chance you will test negative. and a 90.

• The chances of a true positive = chance you have cancer * chance test caught it = 1% * 80% = . What are the chances you have cancer? 80%? 99%? 1%? • Ok.09504 .How Accurate Is The Test? Now suppose you get a positive test result. we got a positive result.6% = 0.008 • The chances of a false positive = chance you don’t have cancer * chance test caught it anyway = 99% * 9. It means we’re somewhere in the top row of our table — it could be a true positive or a false positive.

.

10304 = 0. The chance of getting any type of positive result is the chance of a true positive plus the chance of a false positive (. rather than 80% (the supposed accuracy of the test).008.8%.0776.• Probability = desired event / all possibilities • The chance of getting a real.008 + 0. or about 7. positive result is . our chance of cancer is .8% chance of cancer. It might seem strange at first but it makes sense: the test gives a false positive 10% of the time. so there will be a ton of false positives in any given population.10304). .09504 = . • Interesting — a positive mammogram only means you have a 7.008/. • So.

• Considering all the positive tests. computed above).8% (closer to 1/13. . just 1 in 11 is correct. but we found a reasonable estimate without a calculator. Of the 99 remaining people. about 10% will test positive. • If you take 100 people. only 1 person will have cancer (1%). and they’re nearly guaranteed to test positive (80% chance). The real number is 7. so we’ll get roughly 10 false positives. let’s test our intuition by drawing a conclusion from simply eyeballing the table.Again. so there’s a 1/11 chance of having cancer given a positive test.

• We can turn the process above into an equation. You get the real chance of having the event. It lets you take the test results and correct for the “skew” introduced by false positives. which is Bayes’ Theorem. Here’s the equation: .

This is a false positive.• Pr(A|X) = Chance of having cancer (A) given a positive test (X). This is the chance of a true positive. • Pr(X|~A) = Chance of a positive test (X) given that you didn’t have cancer (~A).6% in our case. • Pr(X|A) = Chance of a positive test (X) given that you had cancer (A). . 9.8%. • Pr(A) = Chance of having cancer (1%). 80% in our case. • Pr(~A) = Chance of not having cancer (99%). This is what we want to know: How likely is it to have cancer with a positive result? In our case it was 7.

• Pr(X) tells us the chance of getting any positive result. and helps us compare against the overall chance of a positive result. . It’s a bit like a weighted average. We can simplify the equation to: • Pr(X) is a normalizing constant and helps scale our equation. we might think that a positive test result gives us an 80% chance of having cancer. whether it’s a real positive in the cancer population (1%) or a false positive in the non-cancer population (99%).• It all comes down to the chance of a true positive result divided by the chance of any positive result. Without it.

.

Applying the theorem in testing a hypothesis Hypothesis: “Resurrection of a man named Jesus is historic” Alternate Hypothesis: “Resurrection of a man named Jesus is not historic” .

I conquer’ was mentioned in only 5 works of antiquity . was mentioned by 10 authors within 150 years after his death • Julius Caesar who spoke the famous words ‘I came. while • Tiberius Caesar-a.Historical criteria #1 Multiple. Independent Sources Criterion • 42 authors of antiquity within 150 years mentioned about Jesus. I saw.

Syrian philosopher. traditional jewish texts • Testimony of Saul of Tarsus .Historical criteria #2 Enemy Attestation Criterion • Rome officials.

Historical criteria #3 Principle of Embarrassment Criterion • Women attestation • Disciples have no category of understanding about the coming death of Jesus .

Historical criteria #4 Eyewitness Testimony Criterion • Matthew. Paul. John. Peter • Epistles of Jude and James .

Dio Cassius after 175-200 years . Suetonius and Tacitus after 100 years. except his funeral note. which was at least 90 years after event. • Rome’s Caesar Augustus written in 6 works.Historical criteria #5 Early Source Criterion • The 4 Gospel accounts were written within 35-65 years after the event While. the earliest work was Plutarch’s. Appian after 100-150 years.

Coming to the 4+1 Minimal Facts • Jesus died by crucifixion • His disciples believed they’ve seen the resurrected Jesus • Persecutor of the followers of Jesus. Paul believed he encountered the resurrected Jesus • Skeptic James was converted • The empty tomb .

Minimal facts #1 Jesus died by crucifixion • • • • • • • • • 4 Gospels Suetonius Tacitus Pliny The Younger Thallus Lucian of Samosata Mara Bar Saparion Josephus Talmud .

They proclaimed it • Paul’s epistles • Oral tradition • Gospels and works of early church fathers – Clement of Rome – Polycarp – Letter of Barnabas .Minimal facts #2 His disciples believed they’ve seen the resurrected Jesus A.

Dionysius of Corinth.B. Ignatius. Polycarp. Tertullian and Origen • 11 disciples. Paul and James suffered/martyred • Chance of martyrdom had he not resurrected . They strongly believed it • Cowards turned martyrs for their beliefs • Martardom written in Luke’s.1:1039 . Clement of Rome.

9:2).Minimal facts #3 Paul believed he encountered the resurrected Jesus • Saul’s conversion account in his own works and Luke’s Acts • Martyrdom recorded in Clement of Rome (1 Clem. Dionysius of Corinth (Ecclesiastical History 2:25:8) and Origen (Commentary on Genesis in EH 3:1) .5:2-7). Polycarp (Phil. Tertullian (Scorpiace 15).

brother of Jesus became the Bishop of Jerusalem. became a martyr . ordained by Peter.Minimal facts #4 Skeptic James was converted • Brothers of Jesus did not believe Jesus • They became followers after the resurrection only • James.

Minimal facts #5 Empty tomb • Jerusalem factor • Enemy attestations • Testimonies of women .

10 . 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE (M) • • • • • Jesus died by crucifixion M Value = 1 Disciples believed they encountered M Value = 3 Persecutor Paul converts M Value = 3 Skeptic James converts M Value = 3 Empty tomb M Value = 2 . 1 7 . 2 0 .Probability of Jesus’ resurrection Evidence shows resurrection did not happen (Scale 1-10) Evidence shows resurrection did happen (Scale 1-10) 1/1 0 1/ 9 1/ 8 1/ 7 1/ 6 1/ 5 1/ 4 1/ 3 ½ 1 2/ 1 3/ 1 4/ 1 5/ 1 6/1 7/ 1 8/ 1 9/ 1 10/ 1 . 1 4 . 25 . 11 . 1 3 . 3 3 .

M = P(E|R)/P(E|R*) = 96% THEREFORE. THE OCCURRENCE OF JESUS’ RESURRECTION IS MORE PROBABLE BY 46%(THAT IS 96%-50%) THAN NOT .PBEFORE WHERE.PAFTER = PBEFORE X M/ PBEFORE X M + 100% .

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