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N.

Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich
CHAPTE
R

National Income: Where it


Comes From and Where it
Modified for EC 204
Goes
by Bob Murphy
2010 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved

SEVENTH EDITIO

MACROECONOMICS

In this chapter, you will learn:


what determines the economys total
output/income

how the prices of the factors of production


are determined

how total income is distributed


what determines the demand for goods and
services

how equilibrium in the goods market is


achieved

Outline of model
Dalam ekonomi tertutup (closed economy),
market-clearing model:

Sisi penawaran (Supply side)


factor markets (supply, demand, price)
Penentuan output atau pendepatan
Sisi permintaan (Demand side)
Penentuan dari fungsi konsumsi, investasi, dan
belanja pemerintah (determinants of C, I, and
G)
CHAPTER 3

National Income

Equilibrium

Pasar barang (goods market)


Pasar uang (loanable funds market)

Faktor-faktor produksi
K = capital:
tools, machines, and structures used
in production
L = labor:
the physical and mental efforts of
workers

CHAPTER 3

National Income

The production function: Y =


F(K,L)
Menunjukkan berapa banyak output (Y )
yang bisa dihasilkan oleh suatu perekonomian
dengan modal dan tenaga kerja yang tersedia

Fungsi produksi menunjukkan tingkat teknologi


dari suatu perekonomian

Fungsi produksi diasumsikan constant returns


to scale artinya penambahan input dua kali lipat
akan menghasilkan penambahan output dua
kali lipat.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

Returns to scale: A review


Initially Y1 = F (K1 , L1 )
Scale all inputs by the same factor z:
K2 = zK1 and L2 = zL1
(e.g., if z = 1.2, then all inputs are increased by 20%)

What happens to output, Y2 = F (K2, L2 )?


If constant returns to scale, Y2 = zY1
If increasing returns to scale, Y2 > zY1
If decreasing returns to scale, Y2 < zY1
CHAPTER 3

National Income

Returns to scale: Example 1

constant returns to
scale for any z > 0
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National Income

Returns to scale: Example 2

decreasing returns
to scale for any z
>1
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National Income

Returns to scale: Example 3

increasing returns
to scale for any
z>1

CHAPTER 3

National Income

10

Asumsi-asumsi yang digunakan:


1. Teknologi adalah tetap (fixed).
2. Perekonomian menawarkan modal dan
tenaga kerja pada tingkat yang tetap

CHAPTER 3

National Income

11

Determining GDP
Output ditentukan oleh penawaran faktor
produksi yang tetap dan teknologi yang tetap:

CHAPTER 3

National Income

12

The distribution of national


income
Distribusi pendapatan nasional ditentukan oleh
harga-harga faktor (factor prices), harga faktor
merupakan pembayaran per unit bagi faktor
produksi:

Upah (wage) = price of L


Bunga modal (rental rate) = price of K

CHAPTER 3

National Income

13

Notation
W
W ==nominal
nominalwage
wage
RR ==nominal
nominalrental
rentalrate
rate
PP ==price
priceofofoutput
output
W
W/P
/P ==real
realwage
wage
(measured
(measuredininunits
unitsofofoutput)
output)
RR/P
/P ==real
realrental
rentalrate
rate

CHAPTER 3

National Income

14

How factor prices are determined


Harga faktor produksi ditentukan oleh
penawaran dan permintaan dari pasar faktor
produksi

Recall: Supply of each factor is fixed.


What about demand?

CHAPTER 3

National Income

15

Demand for labor


Diasumsikan pasar tenaga kerja adalah
kompetitif dimana setiap perusahaan
memperlakukan upah, bunga, dan harga adalah
tetap (given).

Basic idea:
Perusahaan menggaji setiap unit tenaga kerja
jika biaya tidak melebihi manfaat yang
diperoleh.
cost = real wage (w/p)
benefit = marginal product of labor (MPL)
CHAPTER 3

National Income

16

Marginal product of labor (MPL )


definition:
The extra output the firm can produce
using an additional unit of labor
(holding other inputs fixed):
MPL = F (K, L +1) F (K, L)

CHAPTER 3

National Income

17

MPL and the production function


Y
output

MPL

As more labor
is added, MPL

MPL
1
MPL
1

CHAPTER 3

National Income

Slope of the
production function
equals MPL

L
labor
18

Diminishing marginal returns


As a factor input is increased,
its marginal product falls (other things equal).

Intuition:
Suppose L while holding K fixed
fewer machines per worker
lower worker productivity

CHAPTER 3

National Income

19

MPL and the demand for labor


Units of
output

Each firm hires labor


up to the point where
MPL = W/P.

Real
wage

MPL, Labor
demand
Units of labor, L
Quantity of labor
demanded
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National Income

20

The equilibrium real wage


Units of
output

equilibrium
real wage

Labor
supply

The real wage


adjusts to equate
labor demand with
supply.

MPL, Labor
demand
Units of labor, L

CHAPTER 3

National Income

21

Determining the rental rate


We have just seen that MPL = W/P.
The same logic shows that MPK = R/P:
diminishing returns to capital: MPK as K
The MPK curve is the firms demand curve
for renting capital.
Firms maximize profits by choosing K
such that MPK = R/P.

CHAPTER 3

National Income

22

The equilibrium real rental rate


Units of
output

equilibrium
R/P

Supply of
capital

The real rental rate


adjusts to equate
demand for capital
with supply.

MPK, demand
for capital
Units of capital, K

CHAPTER 3

National Income

23

The Neoclassical Theory of


Distribution
states that each factor input is paid its marginal
product

a good starting point for thinking about income


distribution

CHAPTER 3

National Income

24

How income is distributed to L


and K
total labor income =
total capital income =
If production function has constant returns to
scale, then

national
income
CHAPTER 3

National Income

labor
income

capital
income
25

The ratio of labor income to total


income in the U.S., 1960-2007
Labors
share of
total
income

Labors
Labors share
share of
of income
income
is
is approximately
approximately constant
constant over
over time.
time.
(Thus,
(Thus, capitals
capitals share
share is,
is, too.)
too.)

The Cobb-Douglas Production


Function
The Cobb-Douglas production function has
constant factor shares:
= capitals share of total income:
capital income = MPK x K = Y
labor income = MPL x L = (1 )Y

The Cobb-Douglas production function is:


where A represents the level of technology.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

27

The Cobb-Douglas Production


Function

Each factors marginal product is proportional to


its average product:

CHAPTER 3

National Income

28

Labor productivity and wages


Theory: wages depend on labor productivity
U.S. data:

CHAPTER 3

period

productivity
growth

real wage
growth

1959-2007

2.1%

2.0%

1959-1973

2.8%

2.8%

1973-1995

1.4%

1.2%

1995-2007

2.5%

2.4%

National Income

29

Outline of model
A closed economy, market-clearing model
Supply side
DONE
factor markets (supply, demand, price)
DONE
determination of output/income
Demand side
Next determinants of C, I, and G
Equilibrium
goods market
loanable funds market
CHAPTER 3

National Income

30

Demand for goods & services


Components of aggregate demand:

C = consumer demand for g & s


I = demand for investment goods
G = government demand for g & s
(closed economy: no NX )

CHAPTER 3

National Income

31

Consumption, C
def: Disposable income is total income minus
total taxes:

Y T.

Consumption function: C = C (Y T )
Shows that (Y T ) C

def: Marginal propensity to consume (MPC)


is the change in C when disposable income
increases by one dollar.

CHAPTER 3

National Income

32

The consumption function


C

C (Y T )

MPC
1

The slope of the


consumption function
is the MPC.

YT

CHAPTER 3

National Income

33

Investment, I
The investment function is I = I (r ),
where r denotes the real interest rate,
the nominal interest rate corrected for inflation.

The real interest rate is


the cost of borrowing
the opportunity cost of using ones own
funds to finance investment spending
So, r I

CHAPTER 3

National Income

34

The investment function


r

Spending on
investment goods
depends negatively on
the real interest rate.

I (r )
I
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National Income

35

Government spending, G
G = govt spending on goods and services.
G excludes transfer payments
(e.g., social security benefits,
unemployment insurance benefits).

Assume government spending and total taxes


are exogenous:

CHAPTER 3

National Income

36

The market for goods & services


Aggregate demand:
Aggregate supply:
Equilibrium:
The real interest rate adjusts
to equate demand with supply.

CHAPTER 3

National Income

37

The loanable funds market


A simple supply-demand model of the financial
system.

One asset: loanable funds


demand for funds: investment
supply of funds: saving
price of funds: real interest rate

CHAPTER 3

National Income

38

Demand for funds: Investment


The demand for loanable funds

comes from investment:


Firms borrow to finance spending on plant &
equipment, new office buildings, etc.
Consumers borrow to buy new houses.

depends negatively on r,
the price of loanable funds
(cost of borrowing).

CHAPTER 3

National Income

39

Loanable funds demand curve


r

The
The investment
investment
curve
curve is
is also
also the
the
demand
demand curve
curve for
for
loanable
loanable funds.
funds.

I (r )
I
CHAPTER 3

National Income

40

Supply of funds: Saving


The supply of loanable funds comes from
saving:

Households use their saving to make bank


deposits, purchase bonds and other assets.
These funds become available to firms to
borrow to finance investment spending.

The government may also contribute to saving


if it does not spend all the tax revenue it
receives.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

41

Types of saving
private saving = (Y T ) C
public saving

T G

national saving, S
= private saving + public saving
= (Y T ) C +
=

CHAPTER 3

TG

Y C G

National Income

42

Notation: = change in a variable

For any variable X, X = the change in X


is the Greek (uppercase) letter Delta
Examples:

If L = 1 and K = 0, then Y = MPL.


More generally, if K = 0, then

(YT ) = Y T , so
C

CHAPTER 3

= MPC (Y T )
= MPC Y MPC T

National Income

43

Budget surpluses and deficits


If T > G, budget surplus = (T G )
= public saving.

If T < G, budget deficit = (G T )


and public saving is negative.

If T = G , balanced budget, public saving = 0.


The U.S. government finances its deficit by
issuing Treasury bonds i.e., borrowing.

CHAPTER 3

National Income

44

U.S. Federal Government


Surplus/Deficit, 1940-2007

U.S. Federal Government Debt,


1940-2007
Fact:
Fact: In
In the
the early
early 1990s,
1990s, about
about 18
18
cents
cents of
of every
every tax
tax dollar
dollar went
went to
to
pay
pay interest
interest on
on the
the debt.
debt.
(In
(In 2007,
2007, itit was
was about
about 10
10 cents)
cents)

Loanable funds supply curve


r
National
National saving
saving
does
does not
not depend
depend
on
on r,r,
so
so the
the supply
supply
curve
curve is
is vertical.
vertical.

S, I

CHAPTER 3

National Income

47

Loanable funds market


equilibrium
r

Equilibrium real
interest rate

I (r )
Equilibrium level
of investment
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National Income

S, I

48

The special role of r


rr adjusts
adjusts to
to equilibrate
equilibrate the
the goods
goods market
market and
and the
the
loanable
loanable funds
funds market
market simultaneously:
simultaneously:
IfIf L.F.
L.F.market
market in
in equilibrium,
equilibrium, then
then
Y
Y C
C G
G == II
Add
Add (C
(C +G
+G )) to
to both
both sides
sides to
to get
get
Y
Y == C
C ++ II ++ G
G (goods
(goods market
market eqm)
eqm)
Thus,
Thus,

CHAPTER 3

Eqm in L.F.
market

National Income

Eqm in goods
market
49

Digression: Mastering models


To master a model, be sure to know:
1. Which of its variables are endogenous and
which are exogenous.
2. For each curve in the diagram, know:
a. definition
b. intuition for slope
c. all the things that can shift the curve
3. Use the model to analyze the effects of each
item in 2c.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

50

Mastering the loanable funds


model
Things that shift the saving curve
public saving
fiscal policy: changes in G or T
private saving
preferences
tax laws that affect saving
401(k)
IRA
replace income tax with consumption tax
CHAPTER 3

National Income

51

CASE STUDY:

The Reagan deficits


Reagan policies during early 1980s:
increases in defense spending: G > 0
big tax cuts: T < 0
Both policies reduce national saving:

CHAPTER 3

National Income

52

CASE STUDY:

The Reagan deficits


1.
1. The
The increase
increase in
in
the
the deficit
deficit reduces
reduces
saving
saving
2.
2. which
which causes
causes the
the
real
real interest
interest rate
rate to
to
rise
rise
3.
3. which
which reduces
reduces
the
the level
level of
of
investment.
investment.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

r2
r1
I (r )
I2

I1

S, I
53

Are the data consistent with these


results?
variable

1970s

1980s

TG

2.2

3.9

19.6

17.4

1.1

6.3

19.9

19.4

TG, S, and I are expressed as a percent of GDP


All figures are averages over the decade shown.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

54

Mastering the loanable funds


model, continued
Things that shift the investment curve:

some technological innovations


to take advantage some innovations,
firms must buy new investment goods

tax laws that affect investment


e.g., investment tax credit

CHAPTER 3

National Income

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An increase in investment demand


r
raises the
interest rate.

r2

An increase
in desired
investment

r1
But the equilibrium
level of investment
cannot increase
because the
supply of loanable
funds is fixed.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

I1

I2

S, I

56

Saving and the interest rate


Why might saving depend on r ?
How would the results of an increase in
investment demand be different?

Would r rise as much?


Would the equilibrium value of I change?

CHAPTER 3

National Income

57

An increase in investment demand


when saving depends on r
An increase in
investment demand
raises r,
which induces an
increase in the
quantity of saving,
which allows I
to increase.

r2
r1
I(r)2
I(r)
I1 I2

CHAPTER 3

National Income

S, I
58

FYI: Markets, Intermediaries, the 2008

Crisis

In the real world, firms have several options for


raising funds they need for investment, including:
borrow from banks
sell bonds to savers
sell shares of stock (ownership) to savers

The financial system includes:


bond and stock markets, where savers directly
provide funds to firms for investment
financial intermediaries, e.g. banks, insurance
companies, mutual funds, where savers
indirectly provide funds to firms for investment
CHAPTER 3

National Income

59

FYI: Markets, Intermediaries, the 2008

Crisis

Intermediaries can help move funds to their


most productive uses.

But when intermediaries are involved,


savers usually do not know what investments
their funds are financing.

Intermediaries were at the heart of the financial


crisis of 2008.

CHAPTER 3

National Income

60

FYI: Markets, Intermediaries, the 2008

Crisis
A few details on the financial crisis:

July 06 to Dec 08: house prices fell 27%


Jan 08 to Dec 08: 2.3 million foreclosures
Many banks, financial institutions holding
mortgages or mortgage-backed securities
driven to near bankruptcy

Congress authorized $700 billion to help shore


up financial institutions

CHAPTER 3

National Income

61

Chapter Summary
Total output is determined by:
the economys quantities of capital and labor
the level of technology
Competitive firms hire each factor until its
marginal product equals its price.

If the production function has constant returns


to scale, then labor income plus capital income
equals total income (output).

Chapter Summary
A closed economys output is used for:
consumption
investment
government spending
The real interest rate adjusts to equate
the demand for and supply of:
goods and services
loanable funds

Chapter Summary
A decrease in national saving causes the
interest rate to rise and investment to fall.

An increase in investment demand causes the


interest rate to rise, but does not affect the
equilibrium level of investment
if the supply of loanable funds is fixed.