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# N.

Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich
CHAPTE
R

## National Income: Where it

Comes From and Where it
Modified for EC 204
Goes
by Bob Murphy

SEVENTH EDITIO

MACROECONOMICS

## In this chapter, you will learn:

what determines the economys total
output/income

are determined

## how total income is distributed

what determines the demand for goods and
services

## how equilibrium in the goods market is

achieved

Outline of model
Dalam ekonomi tertutup (closed economy),
market-clearing model:

## Sisi penawaran (Supply side)

factor markets (supply, demand, price)
Penentuan output atau pendepatan
Sisi permintaan (Demand side)
Penentuan dari fungsi konsumsi, investasi, dan
belanja pemerintah (determinants of C, I, and
G)
CHAPTER 3

National Income

Equilibrium

## Pasar barang (goods market)

Pasar uang (loanable funds market)

Faktor-faktor produksi
K = capital:
tools, machines, and structures used
in production
L = labor:
the physical and mental efforts of
workers

CHAPTER 3

National Income

## The production function: Y =

F(K,L)
Menunjukkan berapa banyak output (Y )
yang bisa dihasilkan oleh suatu perekonomian
dengan modal dan tenaga kerja yang tersedia

## Fungsi produksi menunjukkan tingkat teknologi

dari suatu perekonomian

## Fungsi produksi diasumsikan constant returns

to scale artinya penambahan input dua kali lipat
akan menghasilkan penambahan output dua
kali lipat.
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National Income

## Returns to scale: A review

Initially Y1 = F (K1 , L1 )
Scale all inputs by the same factor z:
K2 = zK1 and L2 = zL1
(e.g., if z = 1.2, then all inputs are increased by 20%)

## What happens to output, Y2 = F (K2, L2 )?

If constant returns to scale, Y2 = zY1
If increasing returns to scale, Y2 > zY1
If decreasing returns to scale, Y2 < zY1
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National Income

## Returns to scale: Example 1

constant returns to
scale for any z > 0
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National Income

## Returns to scale: Example 2

decreasing returns
to scale for any z
>1
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National Income

## Returns to scale: Example 3

increasing returns
to scale for any
z>1

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National Income

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## Asumsi-asumsi yang digunakan:

2. Perekonomian menawarkan modal dan
tenaga kerja pada tingkat yang tetap

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National Income

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Determining GDP
Output ditentukan oleh penawaran faktor
produksi yang tetap dan teknologi yang tetap:

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National Income

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## The distribution of national

income
Distribusi pendapatan nasional ditentukan oleh
harga-harga faktor (factor prices), harga faktor
merupakan pembayaran per unit bagi faktor
produksi:

## Upah (wage) = price of L

Bunga modal (rental rate) = price of K

CHAPTER 3

National Income

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Notation
W
W ==nominal
nominalwage
wage
RR ==nominal
nominalrental
rentalrate
rate
PP ==price
priceofofoutput
output
W
W/P
/P ==real
realwage
wage
(measured
(measuredininunits
unitsofofoutput)
output)
RR/P
/P ==real
realrental
rentalrate
rate

CHAPTER 3

National Income

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## How factor prices are determined

Harga faktor produksi ditentukan oleh
penawaran dan permintaan dari pasar faktor
produksi

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National Income

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## Demand for labor

kompetitif dimana setiap perusahaan
memperlakukan upah, bunga, dan harga adalah
tetap (given).

Basic idea:
Perusahaan menggaji setiap unit tenaga kerja
jika biaya tidak melebihi manfaat yang
diperoleh.
cost = real wage (w/p)
benefit = marginal product of labor (MPL)
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National Income

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## Marginal product of labor (MPL )

definition:
The extra output the firm can produce
using an additional unit of labor
(holding other inputs fixed):
MPL = F (K, L +1) F (K, L)

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National Income

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## MPL and the production function

Y
output

MPL

As more labor

MPL
1
MPL
1

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National Income

Slope of the
production function
equals MPL

L
labor
18

## Diminishing marginal returns

As a factor input is increased,
its marginal product falls (other things equal).

Intuition:
Suppose L while holding K fixed
fewer machines per worker
lower worker productivity

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National Income

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Units of
output

## Each firm hires labor

up to the point where
MPL = W/P.

Real
wage

MPL, Labor
demand
Units of labor, L
Quantity of labor
demanded
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National Income

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Units of
output

equilibrium
real wage

Labor
supply

## The real wage

labor demand with
supply.

MPL, Labor
demand
Units of labor, L

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National Income

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## Determining the rental rate

We have just seen that MPL = W/P.
The same logic shows that MPK = R/P:
diminishing returns to capital: MPK as K
The MPK curve is the firms demand curve
for renting capital.
Firms maximize profits by choosing K
such that MPK = R/P.

CHAPTER 3

National Income

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Units of
output

equilibrium
R/P

Supply of
capital

## The real rental rate

demand for capital
with supply.

MPK, demand
for capital
Units of capital, K

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National Income

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## The Neoclassical Theory of

Distribution
states that each factor input is paid its marginal
product

distribution

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National Income

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## How income is distributed to L

and K
total labor income =
total capital income =
If production function has constant returns to
scale, then

national
income
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National Income

labor
income

capital
income
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## The ratio of labor income to total

income in the U.S., 1960-2007
Labors
share of
total
income

Labors
Labors share
share of
of income
income
is
is approximately
approximately constant
constant over
over time.
time.
(Thus,
(Thus, capitals
capitals share
share is,
is, too.)
too.)

## The Cobb-Douglas Production

Function
The Cobb-Douglas production function has
constant factor shares:
= capitals share of total income:
capital income = MPK x K = Y
labor income = MPL x L = (1 )Y

## The Cobb-Douglas production function is:

where A represents the level of technology.
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National Income

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Function

## Each factors marginal product is proportional to

its average product:

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National Income

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## Labor productivity and wages

Theory: wages depend on labor productivity
U.S. data:

CHAPTER 3

period

productivity
growth

real wage
growth

1959-2007

2.1%

2.0%

1959-1973

2.8%

2.8%

1973-1995

1.4%

1.2%

1995-2007

2.5%

2.4%

National Income

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Outline of model
A closed economy, market-clearing model
Supply side
DONE
factor markets (supply, demand, price)
DONE
determination of output/income
Demand side
Next determinants of C, I, and G
Equilibrium
goods market
loanable funds market
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## Demand for goods & services

Components of aggregate demand:

## C = consumer demand for g & s

I = demand for investment goods
G = government demand for g & s
(closed economy: no NX )

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Consumption, C
def: Disposable income is total income minus
total taxes:

Y T.

Consumption function: C = C (Y T )
Shows that (Y T ) C

## def: Marginal propensity to consume (MPC)

is the change in C when disposable income
increases by one dollar.

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National Income

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C

C (Y T )

MPC
1

## The slope of the

consumption function
is the MPC.

YT

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National Income

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Investment, I
The investment function is I = I (r ),
where r denotes the real interest rate,
the nominal interest rate corrected for inflation.

## The real interest rate is

the cost of borrowing
the opportunity cost of using ones own
funds to finance investment spending
So, r I

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National Income

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## The investment function

r

Spending on
investment goods
depends negatively on
the real interest rate.

I (r )
I
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Government spending, G
G = govt spending on goods and services.
G excludes transfer payments
(e.g., social security benefits,
unemployment insurance benefits).

are exogenous:

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## The market for goods & services

Aggregate demand:
Aggregate supply:
Equilibrium:
to equate demand with supply.

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## The loanable funds market

A simple supply-demand model of the financial
system.

## One asset: loanable funds

demand for funds: investment
supply of funds: saving
price of funds: real interest rate

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National Income

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## Demand for funds: Investment

The demand for loanable funds

## comes from investment:

Firms borrow to finance spending on plant &
equipment, new office buildings, etc.
Consumers borrow to buy new houses.

depends negatively on r,
the price of loanable funds
(cost of borrowing).

CHAPTER 3

National Income

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r

The
The investment
investment
curve
curve is
is also
also the
the
demand
demand curve
curve for
for
loanable
loanable funds.
funds.

I (r )
I
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National Income

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## Supply of funds: Saving

The supply of loanable funds comes from
saving:

## Households use their saving to make bank

deposits, purchase bonds and other assets.
These funds become available to firms to
borrow to finance investment spending.

## The government may also contribute to saving

if it does not spend all the tax revenue it
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National Income

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Types of saving
private saving = (Y T ) C
public saving

T G

national saving, S
= private saving + public saving
= (Y T ) C +
=

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TG

Y C G

National Income

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## For any variable X, X = the change in X

is the Greek (uppercase) letter Delta
Examples:

## If L = 1 and K = 0, then Y = MPL.

More generally, if K = 0, then

(YT ) = Y T , so
C

CHAPTER 3

= MPC (Y T )
= MPC Y MPC T

National Income

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## Budget surpluses and deficits

If T > G, budget surplus = (T G )
= public saving.

## If T < G, budget deficit = (G T )

and public saving is negative.

## If T = G , balanced budget, public saving = 0.

The U.S. government finances its deficit by
issuing Treasury bonds i.e., borrowing.

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National Income

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## U.S. Federal Government

Surplus/Deficit, 1940-2007

1940-2007
Fact:
Fact: In
In the
the early
early 1990s,
18
cents
cents of
of every
every tax
tax dollar
dollar went
went to
to
pay
pay interest
interest on
on the
the debt.
debt.
(In
(In 2007,
2007, itit was
10 cents)
cents)

r
National
National saving
saving
does
does not
not depend
depend
on
on r,r,
so
so the
the supply
supply
curve
curve is
is vertical.
vertical.

S, I

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## Loanable funds market

equilibrium
r

Equilibrium real
interest rate

I (r )
Equilibrium level
of investment
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National Income

S, I

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## The special role of r

to equilibrate
equilibrate the
the goods
goods market
market and
and the
the
loanable
loanable funds
funds market
market simultaneously:
simultaneously:
IfIf L.F.
L.F.market
market in
in equilibrium,
equilibrium, then
then
Y
Y C
C G
G == II
(C +G
+G )) to
to both
both sides
sides to
to get
get
Y
Y == C
C ++ II ++ G
G (goods
(goods market
market eqm)
eqm)
Thus,
Thus,

CHAPTER 3

Eqm in L.F.
market

National Income

Eqm in goods
market
49

## Digression: Mastering models

To master a model, be sure to know:
1. Which of its variables are endogenous and
which are exogenous.
2. For each curve in the diagram, know:
a. definition
b. intuition for slope
c. all the things that can shift the curve
3. Use the model to analyze the effects of each
item in 2c.
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## Mastering the loanable funds

model
Things that shift the saving curve
public saving
fiscal policy: changes in G or T
private saving
preferences
tax laws that affect saving
401(k)
IRA
replace income tax with consumption tax
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CASE STUDY:

## The Reagan deficits

Reagan policies during early 1980s:
increases in defense spending: G > 0
big tax cuts: T < 0
Both policies reduce national saving:

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National Income

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CASE STUDY:

1.
1. The
The increase
increase in
in
the
the deficit
deficit reduces
reduces
saving
saving
2.
2. which
which causes
causes the
the
real
real interest
interest rate
rate to
to
rise
rise
3.
3. which
which reduces
reduces
the
the level
level of
of
investment.
investment.
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National Income

r2
r1
I (r )
I2

I1

S, I
53

results?
variable

1970s

1980s

TG

2.2

3.9

19.6

17.4

1.1

6.3

19.9

19.4

## TG, S, and I are expressed as a percent of GDP

All figures are averages over the decade shown.
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## Mastering the loanable funds

model, continued
Things that shift the investment curve:

## some technological innovations

firms must buy new investment goods

## tax laws that affect investment

e.g., investment tax credit

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National Income

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## An increase in investment demand

r
raises the
interest rate.

r2

An increase
in desired
investment

r1
But the equilibrium
level of investment
cannot increase
because the
supply of loanable
funds is fixed.
CHAPTER 3

National Income

I1

I2

S, I

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## Saving and the interest rate

Why might saving depend on r ?
How would the results of an increase in
investment demand be different?

## Would r rise as much?

Would the equilibrium value of I change?

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## An increase in investment demand

when saving depends on r
An increase in
investment demand
raises r,
which induces an
increase in the
quantity of saving,
which allows I
to increase.

r2
r1
I(r)2
I(r)
I1 I2

CHAPTER 3

National Income

S, I
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Crisis

## In the real world, firms have several options for

raising funds they need for investment, including:
borrow from banks
sell bonds to savers
sell shares of stock (ownership) to savers

## The financial system includes:

bond and stock markets, where savers directly
provide funds to firms for investment
financial intermediaries, e.g. banks, insurance
companies, mutual funds, where savers
indirectly provide funds to firms for investment
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National Income

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Crisis

## Intermediaries can help move funds to their

most productive uses.

## But when intermediaries are involved,

savers usually do not know what investments
their funds are financing.

crisis of 2008.

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National Income

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## FYI: Markets, Intermediaries, the 2008

Crisis
A few details on the financial crisis:

## July 06 to Dec 08: house prices fell 27%

Jan 08 to Dec 08: 2.3 million foreclosures
Many banks, financial institutions holding
mortgages or mortgage-backed securities
driven to near bankruptcy

## Congress authorized \$700 billion to help shore

up financial institutions

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Chapter Summary
Total output is determined by:
the economys quantities of capital and labor
the level of technology
Competitive firms hire each factor until its
marginal product equals its price.

## If the production function has constant returns

to scale, then labor income plus capital income
equals total income (output).

Chapter Summary
A closed economys output is used for:
consumption
investment
government spending
The real interest rate adjusts to equate
the demand for and supply of:
goods and services
loanable funds

Chapter Summary
A decrease in national saving causes the
interest rate to rise and investment to fall.

## An increase in investment demand causes the

interest rate to rise, but does not affect the
equilibrium level of investment
if the supply of loanable funds is fixed.