-X(Z) “c”

S&P 500 (120 min.)
-y1154

(c)?

61.8% of -w- from -w-’s conclusion

(a)

-w(c)
1112.3 [3]

[5]

(b)
[4]

(b)

[1] [2]

(a) (a)
1086

(c)

-x-

(b)

With 1140 being taken out, the next and last target for this model is 1154. That level would be -w-=-y- and also an (a)=(b) within -y-. This would produce a marginally higher high on the S&P 500. One wonders if this is what the market is going for: a new high that brings in a new wave buyers before the actual conclusion?

1044.5

a

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 (120 min.)
??
If 1154 doesn’t produce the reversal, then we’re likely dealing with this shorter term model. This would require a reworking of the medium term wave counts to see how it “fits” into the bigger picture. This setup opens up much more near term upside.

(3)?

(1)

-a1112.3

(2)

-x-

(b)

-w-

(d)

1086

(c) -bThis move would be considered an “Double Combination,” a correction that ends with a Triangle.

(a) (e) -y-

??

(c)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (Weekly)
(A)

“b”
89.62

This model has been excellent for giving us a feel for medium term direction, so we will stick with it. While the DXY has clearly stopped going higher, one cannot say it has shown signs of a “reversal.” It looks like to be just congesting nearer the highs, typically a signal that another new high is likely.

“d” Z x y
81.70?

w w
77.69

x

x x y
74.33

“a”

“e” (B)

z of “c”
The “b” wave lasted 11 weeks (54 trading days) on this chart and was very “brief” in comparison to the “c” wave that followed. It would make sense for the “d” wave to be longer lasting to provide some “alternation.” For instance, it if were to be 161.8% of “b”, that would make this “d” wave 88 trading days long for an 18 week move. We’re currently on trading day 67, so maybe another 2-3 weeks to go?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (240 min)
z of “d”
Dollar Bulls have had little to “fret over” the last few weeks. This market seems to be congesting in a triangle type pattern while key support at 79.53 hasn’t been “sniffed” for awhile. It looks like we have another high coming. However, the next new high could be a bull trap--the price action on setting a new high will be crucial. Does it just slice through and keep powering? Or, does it just poke to a new high and then reverse on itself?

-c-?

y
-g80.68

-a-

-e-

-b-?

w
-c-a-

-c-f-d-

x2?

79.53 KEY SUPPORT

-a-b-

-b76.60

I have yet to see a legitimate “five wave” count for this move (y-wave) on the blogosphere, so I’ll continue to call it a “correction” of some kind. If the “diametric” labeling makes one queasy, then consider it a “double.”

x1

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (Weekly)
“b”
89.62

This has been my model for several months now and so far there is nothing to suggest anything different. The “b”-wave lasted 54 trading days, so an 80+ day “d” wave might be nice “alternation.” So far, we’re only half way there, so perhaps this “d” wave persists until early April. The minimum objective of this pattern would be 81.70, for 61.8% of “b.” A decisive break of 81.70 would open the door to 83.71, the 78.6% of “b” target. Interestingly, the 61.8% retrace of “c” comes in at 83.78, so we may not see any strong selling until 83.70’s

(A)

REPRINTED 2/7/2009
“d” Z
81.70 or 83.71?

x w
77.69

y

w y

x x

x “e” (B)

“a”

74.33

z of “c”
There is compelling evidence that we’re in the tail end of a triangle (B)-Wave. The “a”-wave was an “elongated flat.” These patterns exclusively show up as legs in a triangle. The “c”-wave is VERY difficult to classify as a “five,” therefore it must be a correction, which supports a triangle idea. Lastly, the “c” was almost exactly 138.2% of “a”wave, which is a nice Fibonacci relationship required in a triangle.

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Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1“ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro