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*** One widely used probability distribution of a
**

discrete random variable.

*Named after Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli.

*Known as the outcome of Bernoulli process.

* Binomial distribution describes discrete, not

continuous ,data , resulting from an experiment

known as Bernoulli process.

Binomoial distribution

the process includes_

1.The process is performed under the same

conditions for a fixed & finite number of

trials,n.

2.Each trial is independent from other trials.

3.Each trial has only two possible outcome

4.The probablity of success,p,remains constant

from trial to trial.

.

05 r= 2 n=3 . p=0.Problem • If we toss a coin 3 times then chances of getting exactly 2 heads will be_ As.5 p+q=1 q=.

prolem .

Binomial distribution .

Condition for Binomial distribution .

n=number of trial p=probability of success .

Mean of binomial .

Mean.binomial .

n=number of trials p=probability of success q=probability of failure .

Variance-binomial .

binomial .Variance.

9020-0.2712 =0.6308 c)At least 2 will be defective d) At most 3 will be defective . If a random sample of 25 products are drawn from the output.9666 b) Two.Problem 1. Find the probability that: a) Five or fewer will defective P(X≤ 5) = p(x=0)+ p(x=1) + p(x=2) + p(x=3) + p(x=4) + p(x= 5) =. In a certain factory10% of the products are defective. three or four will be defective P(2 ≤ X ≤ 4)=P(X ≤4) – P(X ≤ 1) = p(x=0)+ p(x=1) + p(x=2) + p(x=3) +p(x=4) –(p(x=0)+ p(x=1) ) =0.

3).7. About 30% of the production are defective in a factory.5 the distribution is symmetrical # When p is larger than 0. # This is true for any pair of complemetary p and q values (0.6. 0. . the skewness is less noticeable. Among the 1000 packets find the probability that i) no bulb is defective ii) at best one bulb is defective and find such kind of expected number of packets. the distribution is skewed to the right.8). 10 bulbs are packed in one packet. # When p= 0.Problem 2.1).3 and .2 and 0.5 the distribution is skewed to the left. # As p increases (0. and 0. * We can make the following generalizations: # When p is small (0.4 and 0.

area etc. distance. area. the dist produces successes. the dist operates continuously over some given amount of time. . distance.POISSON DISTRIBUTION The second important discrete probability distribution named after the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson(1781-1840 ). which occur at random points in the specified time. Poisson distribution differs from the binomial dist in two aspects: i) Rather than consisting of discrete trials. ii) Rather than producing a sequence of uccess and failures.

Poisson distribution .

.the probability of two or more occurrences of the event is negligible. That is the occurance of an event in an interval of space or time has no effect on the probability 2)An infinite number of occurrences of the event must be possible in the interval 3)The probability of single occurrence in a given interval is proportional to the length of the interval 4)In any infinitesimal(extremely small) portion of interval.Characteristics of Poisson Distribution 1)The occurrence of the events is independent.

Differs from the binomial distribution in important aspects 1)Rather than consisting of discrete trials.area. distance. area etc 2)Rather than producing a sequence of successes & failures.The distribution produces successes which occur at random points in the specified time. 3)The mean &variance of poisson distribution are Same.distance. .the distribution operates continuously over some given amount of time.

05 .Conditions for which Poisson Distribution as an approximation of the Binomial Distribution: 1)When the number of trials are large that means n is large 2)The Binomial Probability of success is small that means p is small * The rule most often used by statisticians is that the Poisson is a good approximation of Binomial when n is greater than or equal to 20 & p is less than or equal to 0.

Business application of Poisson Distribution: 1)The demand for a product 2)Typographical errors occurring on the pages of a book 3)The occurrence of accident in a factory 4)The arrival pattern in a departmental store 5)The occurrences of flaws in a bolt in a factory 6)The arrival of calls at a switch board .

find the probability that in a sample of 100 bulbs i) 1 bulbs ii) at most 2 bulbs will be defective. 2. e-m = . what is the probability that a page observed at random will contain at least three misprints? • M=np=1.0802 . What probability model is appropriate to describe a situation where 100 misprints are distributed randomly throughout the 100 pages of a book? For this model.problem 1.3679 • P[x>/ 3]= . If 3% of the electric bulbs manufactured by a company are defective.

Normal distribution Normal distribution is the most important continuous probability distribution. It is between ∫fxdx=1 -∞<x < ∞. f(x)= . The probability of single point is not possible. It is continuous means it accept all the value between a given range.

• First and third quartiles are equidistant • All odd moments are zero. the two halves will concide • The no of cases below the mean and above the mean is same. • Two tails normal distribution are extended forever and never touches horizontal axis. mode are all equal. Thus Mean. ( skewness=0) If the curve is folded along its vertical axis.one max point thus it is unimodal.Properties of normal distribution • The curve has a single peak . skewness=0. Also the height of the normal curve is at its maximum at the mean. median. • It is symmetrically distributed about the mean. kurtosis=3 . which makes mean and median same.

. ii)Approximately 95.5% of all the values in a normally distributed population led within ± 2 standard deviation from the mean.7% of all the values in a normally distributed population led within ± 3 standard deviation from the mean.Properties of normal distribution *Areas under the normal curve: i)Approximately 68% of all the values in a normally distributed population led within ± 1 standard deviation from the mean. iii) Approximately 99.

Distribution function of Normal : .

Standard normal distribution: .

assuming normal distribution. A workshop produces 2000 units per day. The average daily sales of 500 branch offices was tk 150 thousad and the sd tk 15thousand.5 and 46. In a normal distribution. A random sample of 100 tyres is selected. Assuming the dist to be normal. indicate how many branches have sales between Tk 120 thous and tk 145 thousand 2. What is the probability that the mean of this sample lies between 42. how many units are expected to weight less than 142 kg? 4.4 kg? 3. The weight of a certain type of a car tyre is normally distributed with a mean of 45 kg and a variance of 4 kg. The average weight of units is 130 kg with a sd of 10 kg. 31% of the items are under 45 and 8% are over 64.Problems 1. . Find the mean and sd of the distributions.

problem .

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