You are on page 1of 23

CHAPTER 10

SECTIONS 10.1 10.3:


Statistical Hypotheses
Engineering Statistics

Quote

Op
Th

Required Reading
R.E. Walpole, R.H. Myers, S.L.
Myers, and K. Ye. (2012).
Probability & Statistics for
Engineers and Scientists. 9th Ed.
Prentice Hall: New Jersey. Chapter
10.110.3.

Topics
Statistic Hypotheses: General
Concepts
Testing a Statistical Hypothesis
The Use of P-Values for Decision
Making in Testing Hypotheses

Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis statements (i.e. Null Hypothesis
vs. Alternative Hypothesis) either about
parameters of one or more populations.
The Null Hypothesis is denoted as H0, which
refers to any hypothesis we wish to test.
The Alternative Hypothesis is denoted as
H1 .
The objective is to reject or fail to reject the
null hypothesis statement.
The rejection of the null hypothesis leads to
the acceptance of an alternative hypothesis.

Hypothesis Testing
A procedure leading to a decision about a
particular hypothesis.
Hypothesis-testing procedures rely on using
the information in a random sample from the
population of interest.
If this information is consistent with the
hypothesis, then we will conclude that the
hypothesis is true.
If this information is inconsistent with the
hypothesis, we will conclude that the
hypothesis is false.

Figure 10.1 Decision criterion for


testing p = 0.25 versus p > 0.25

Types of Error
Type I Error
Occurs when H0 is rejected when it is true.
Its probability is denoted as .

Type II Error
Occurs when H0 is not rejected when it is false.
Its probability is denoted as .

Power of the Test


Power = 1- = P(reject H0|H0 is false)

Table 10.1 Possible Situations for


Testing a Statistical Hypothesis

Sometimes the Type I Error is called the significance level.


The probability of committing a type I error is denoted by
the Greek letter .
The probability of committing a type II error is denoted by
the Greek letter .
The probability of committing both types of error can be
reduced by increasing the sample size.

The role of Sample Size


Consider the new vaccine but now using
a sample of 100 individuals.
If more than 36 surpass the 2-year
period, we reject the null hypothesis that
p = and accept the alternative
hypothesis that p > .
Critical value is now 36; all outcomes
above 36 constitute the critical region,
and all possible scores less than or equal
to 36 fall in the acceptance region.

Figure 10.2 Probability of a


type I error

Figure 10.3 Probability of a type II


error

Hypothesis Testing
Two-sided Hypothesis
H 0 : 50cm/s
H1 : 50cm/s

One-sided Hypothesis
H
0 : 50cm/s
H1 : 50cm/s

H 0 : 50cm/s
H1 : 50cm/s

2-Sided Hypothesis Testing


Example
Consider the null hypothesis that the
average weight of males students at
Texas State University is 68 kilograms.
H0: = 68 kg
The alternative hypothesis is that the
average weight is not equal to 68
kilograms.
H1: 68 kg, i.e. < 68 kg or > 68 kg

Figure 10.4 Critical region (in blue)

Assume that the standard deviation


of the population of weights to be
= 3.6.

Sample size n = 36.

From the Central Limit Theorem, the


standard deviation of the sample =

Figure 10.5 Critical Region


for testing = 68 versus
68

Figure 10.6 Probability of type II error


for testing = 68 versus = 70

Figure 10.7 Type II error for testing


= 68 versus = 68.5

Important Properties of a
Test of Hypothesis

1.Th
Definition 10.4

The Use of P-Values for Decision


Making in Testing Hyposthses
P-value
The smallest level of significance that
would lead to rejection of the null
hypothesis H0.
For example, the p-value in the Z-test is
given by:

Figure 10.8 Data that are likely


generated from populations having two
different means

Approach to Hypothesis Testing


with Fixed Probability of Type I
Error
1. Take a random sample.
2. State H0 and H1.
3. Select so that the probability of Type
II has a suitable small value.
4. Specify the critical region that leads to the
rejection of H0.
5. Compute the appropriate test statistic.
6. Reject or Fail to reject H0.
7. Draw scientific or engineering conclusions.

Significance Testing
(P-Value Approach)
State null and alternative hypotheses.
Choose an appropriate test statistic.
Compute the P-value based on the
computed value of the test statistic.
Use judgment based on the P-value
and knowledge of the scientific
system.