COMMERCE 341

OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Learning Curves
Fall 2015
Geoff Pond

Agenda
Learning Curves
How to plot them
How to call them
Theoretical Curves
Class Experiment
Empirical Curves
Learning Curve Algebra
Learning Curves in Practice
Homework

Plotting Learning Curves

Typically plotted using cumulative averages
Example
Unit
#

Productio
n Time
(hr)

Cumulative
Average
(hr)

140

120

120.0

120

110

115.0

100

95

108.3

80

72

99.3

60

91.4

55

85.3

10

53

80.7

20

52

77.1

30

52

74.3

100

51

72

110

50.5

70

120

50.5

68.4

Introduction and Overview

Time per Unit

Linear-Linear
Graph

60
40
20
0
0

Unit Number

10

12

14

Plotting Learning Curves

140

Linear-Linear
Graph

120
100
80
Time per Unit

60
40
20
0
0

10

12

14

Unit Number
1000

100
Time per Unit
10

Log-Log
Graph

1
0.2

20
Unit Number

Introduction and Overview

200

Naming Learning Curves

Curves are named for the efficiency improvement at
every DOUBLING of production volume.
Example
Unit 1:
Unit 2:
Unit 4:
Unit 8:

4,000 hours
3,000 hours
(25% reduction)
2,250 hours(25% reduction)
1,687.5 hours (25% reduction)

This is a 75% learning curve (at every doubling of

production, a 25% reduction in effort required is
realized).

Introduction and Overview

Log-Log Scales
Learning curves are typically plotted in log-log space.

Learning Curves

Stanford Curve
Stanford Curve: CUMULATIVE AVERAGE time/unit is linear in log-log
space

Learning Curves

Crawford Curve
Crawford Curve: time/unit is linear in log-log space

Learning Curves

Which of these better reflects reality?

Stanford Curve

Learning Curves

Crawford Curve

Real Life
Task dependent
User dependent
Environment dependent
meaning?
Labour Intensive Operations
- 80% Learning Curve
Machine Intensive
Operations
- 95% Learning Curve

Learning Curves

Specific curves by application

Cochran, E.B., Planning Production Costs: Using the Improvement

Curve, San Francisco: Chandler Publishing, 1968.

Learning Curves

Historical Empirical Curves

Cochran, E.B., Planning Production Costs: Using the Improvement

Curve, San Francisco: Chandler Publishing, 1968.

Learning Curves

Historical Empirical Curves

Cochran, E.B., Planning

Production Costs: Using the
Improvement Curve, San
Francisco: Chandler
Publishing, 1968.

Learning Curves

Learning Curve Algebra

Since these are logarithmic curves, they can be expressed using
the power law:

where:
is the effort to produce the very first
unit
cumulative average time at any unit,
is the unit number; and
is the power of the learning curve

Learning Curves

Example
Completion of a task on the first attempt required 1200 hours of total
effort. Management anticipates an improvement of 11% based on
historical performance for similar projects. Determine the projected
effort over the first 50 units and the subsequent 100 units.
SOLUTION

but we dont know n yet!

Learning Curves

Example (continued)
Completion of a task on the first attempt required 1200 hours of total
effort. Management anticipates an improvement of 11% based on
historical performance for similar projects. Determine the projected
effort over the first 50 units and the subsequent 100 units.
SOLUTION

For :

Learning Curves

Example (continued)
Completion of a task on the first attempt required 1200 hours of total
effort. Management anticipates an improvement of 11% based on
historical performance for similar projects. Determine the projected
effort over the first 50 units and the subsequent 100 units.
SOLUTION
This is the cumulative average over the first 50 units

Therefore,
to determine the total effort over all 50 units,
we simply multiply by the 50:
hours

Take a few minutes to try and solve for the second part of the
problem on your own.

Learning Curves

In Excel

Learning Curves

In Excel

1) Right-click
on dataseries

2) Left-click on
Add
Trendline

Introduction and Overview

In Excel

3) Select a
Power
trend

4) Check this box

to display the
trendlines
equation

Introduction and Overview

In Excel
50
45

f(x) = 45.83 x^-0.23

40

35

30
Time (minutes)

25
20

15

)
= 0.07044

10

0.85027

0
0

Unit Number

Introduction and Overview

This is a 85% learning

curve.

Importance
Estimating production costs
Manual labour
Estimating business costs
Software proficiency
Knowledge of corporate processes
Capacity planning
Manufacturing
Health-services (surgical team proficiency)

Learning Curves

Learning - variability

For this task, what accounts for

variability early becomes
significantly less important as
training progresses

Learning Curves

Learning one dimension at a time!

For this task (a flight simulator),

participant performance
improved as they focused on
one dimension at a time
(improvement in position
control declines in subsequent
trials while improvements in
acceleration control increases
over subsequent trials)

Learning Curves

Team Learning
What makes one team learn a new process faster
than another?
- managers must become leaders
- leaders must create a positive learning
environment
- must give up dictatorial authority (often difficult
for technical experts (surgeons, engineers))
- instead must behave as team partners rather
than managers
- promote psychological safety
- leaders should be chosen based on leadership
skills, NOT technical authority
Edmondson, A., Bohmer, R., and Pisano, G.,
- leaders must be active participants in training &
Speeding up Team Learning, Harvard Business
learning
Review,
October 2001.
Learning Curves

Before next class.

Read the supplemental chapter on Learning Curves
posted to D2L.
Let me know if you have questions!!!
Try the following problems from the end of the
supplemental chapter posted on D2L:
Problem 1
Problem 9
Problem 10
Problem 19
Read Chapter 5 in preparation for next class.

Introduction and Overview