Systems Reliability Growth Modeling

Systems Engineering Program
Department of Engineering Management, Information and Systems
EMIS 7305/5305
Systems Reliability, Supportability and Availability Analysis
Systems Reliability Growth Modeling

and Analysis
Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow

Leadership in Engineering
Stracener_EMIS 7305/5305_Spr08_02.14.08
Reliability Development Test Definitions

MIL-STD-785 Definition
A series of tests conducted to disclose deficiencies
and to verify that corrective actions will prevent
recurrence in the operational inventory (also
known as TAAF testing)
Definition - Narrow View
A reliability development test (RDT) is a dedicated
and specifically designed and conducted test under
usage and maintenance environments that the
equipment is expected to experience during its
service life
Reliability Development Test Definitions - continued

Definition - General View
A reliability development test is any test where
results are designed to improve equipment
reliability
Reliability Growth Test Objective and Purpose

Objective - identify reliability problems early
in the development phase and incorporate
corrective action to preclude recurrence during
service usage
Purpose - improve the reliability of production
equipment by identifying and correcting
deficiencies in the design, selection of parts,
and manufacturing processes
Test, Analyze and Fix (TAAF)

A technique for reliability development and growth that
requires that a series of tests be conducted, problems
identified and analyzed, and corrective actions be taken.
TAAF and other reliability growth techniques require a
closed loop feedback and corrective action system and
follow a common problem solving process:
1. Detect failures
2. Feed back problems to designer
3. Analyze and redesign to correct problem
4. Incorporate redesign into system
5. Verify fix by operating system
The TAAF Process

Test analyze and fix (TAAF) is a philosophy
that can be applied to any test
- Data for all failures/problems should
be used for TAAF
- This approach decreases the likelihood
of major problems in service
Data from each failure/problem from every
test conducted on an item should be analyzed
for corrective action, positive fix and verification
of the fix
TAAF Benefits
TAAF provides the means to accelerate design
and reliability maturity through the corrective
actions taken for design performance/reliability
problems identified.
TAAF provides advanced information related
to how the design will work in the field during
the early years of deployment.
Selection Criteria for RDT

Major contributor to system (end-item) failure rate
New development or application
High unit cost
Experience indicates need for improvement
Reliability Test Length

Fixed length
- 400 to 10,000 hours (chamber hours)
various tests over past 10 years mostly avionics
and electronics
- Easy to price
- Avoids numbers game of when to stop testing
Truncated
- Stop testing when corrective action rate
reaches a specified level
- Difficult to price
- Analysis of data becomes more important
Reliability Growth Management

Planning the reliability growth necessary to
meet program objectives as a function of
program schedule
Planning of tasks and program resources
necessary to achieve the planned growth
- Reliability test data
- Failure analysis
- Corrective action
Assessment and forecast of reliability growth
relative to plan
- Provides early warning of program
reliability problem
10
Reliability Growth
Reliability growth is the positive improvement
of system reliability through the systematic and
permanent removal of the reasons for failure
Reliability improvements can be achieved
through testing to identify deficiencies and/or
weaknesses, followed by positive actions to
correct them. Test, analyze, and fix (TAAF) is
one process for achieving reliability growth.
11
Reliability Growth - continued

Growth curves are management tools; they
show the manager where the system reliability
is now and where is must go
Air Force Regulation 800-18, Air Force reliability
and maintainability program, requires the use of
reliability growth curves to track improvements
to achieve reliability requirements
12
Reliability Growth Curves
Decision makers can use reliability growth curves

to assess the need to reallocate resources or
change schedules to achieve R&M requirements
13
DOD Policy on Reliability Growth and Testing

DOD 5000.40 requires that a period of testing
be scheduled with each intermediate milestone
for purposes of finding design and manufacturing
defects
AFR 800-18 is intended to implement the
requirements of DOD 5000.40 and implies
reliability growth by such statements as terms
are expressed in mature system values along
with interim thresholds
14
DOD Policy on Reliability Growth and Testing
MIL-STD-785 states that a properly balanced

reliability program will emphasize ESS and
RD/GT. It also notes that RD/GT must not
include accept/reject criteria because the
contractors interest in passing a test would be
in conflict with the purpose of doing a RD/GT
MIL-HDBK-781
15
Reliability Growth Models

AMSAA/Duane
ARIMA
ARINC
Aroef
Barlow-Scheuer
Cox-Lewis
Endless-Burn-In (EBI)
Exponential single term
Extended Cox-Lewis
General Random Point
Process
Gompertz
Homogeneous Poisson
process models
IBM
Linear
Lloyd-Lipow
Logistic
Modified Duane
Modified Geometric
Modified Gompertz
Simple exponential
16
Reliability Growth Model Types
Engineering
models
Statistical
models
Deterministic Models
Poisson Process
models
Time Series
Endless-Burn-In
AMSAA/Duane
Cox-Lewis
Modified Duane
ARIMA
17
The Duane Model

In 1964 J.T Duane, with General Electric Company, published a
paper in the IEEE Transactions on Aerospace (Vol. 2, No. 2, April
1964) titled Learning Curve Approach to Reliability Monitoring.
Duane formulated a mathematical relationship for forecasting and
monitoring reliability improvement as a function of cumulative
time.
The model was based on concluding, from analysis of data, that a
straight line provided a reasonably good fit to cumulative MTBF
vs. cumulative time when plotted on a log-log scale.
18
Reliability Growth Analysis

To meet reliability goals, a technique must be
used to track reliability and signal when corrective
action should be taken
J.T. Duane
(1964) noticed
that in many
cases this
relationship
followed a
straight
line on a
log-log plot
19
Jet Engine Control System Reliability - Growth
20
The Duane Model

The Duane Model can be formulated in two different,
but mathematically equivalent, ways: MTBF as a
Function of time and failure rate as a function of time.
In terms of MTBF, the Duane Model is:
MTBFC t t
where MTBFc(t) is the cumulative MTBF at cumulative
time t, t is cumulative time, and and are
parameters of the model.
21
The Duane Model

The parameter is the reliability improvement, or
growth, rate and is cumulative MTBF at t=1 hour.
Notice that the graph of the Duane Model on log-log
scale is a straight line since
log MTBF(t) = log k + log t
which is of the form
y = a + bx
22
The Duane Model

Since
t
MTBFC t
rc
where rc=the cumulative number of failures in time t,
t
rc
MTBFC t
t

t
1 1
t
23
The Duane Model

Then
drc d ( 1 t1 )
dt
dt
1
(1 - )t
1-

t
1
MTBFi (t)
But since
t MTBFc (t)
MTBFc (t)
MTBFI (t)
1
24
The Duane Model

The instantaneous MTBF as a function of
cumulative test time is obtained mathematically
from MTBFC(t) and is given by
K
MTBFi t
t
1
1
MTBFC (t)
1
where MTBFi(t) is the instantaneous MTBF at time
t and is interpreted as the equipment MTBF if
reliability development testing was terminated after
a cumulative amount of testing time, t.
25
MTBF Growth Curves
1000
MTBF
Instantaneous
100
10
10
Cumulative
1000
100
Cumulative Test Hours

26
10000
The Duane Model

The Duane Model may also be formulated in
terms of equipment failure rate as a function of
cumulative test time as follows:
C (t) * t -
and
i (t) (1 ) * t -
(1 ) C (t)
where
C(t) is the cumulative failure rate after test time t
k* is the initial failure rate and k*=1/k,
B is the failure rate growth (decrease rate)
i(t) is the instantaneous failure rate at time t
27
The Duane Model
The initial MTBF or failure rate at the beginning of

RDT depends on a number of other factors including
type of equipment (electronics, structure, etc.)
complexity of the design and equipment operation,
technology, in terms of MTBF of failure rate,
depends on the same factors as does the starting
value, and this in addition depends on management
FRACAS and TAAF implementation.
28
Failure Rate and MTBF
29
AMSAA/Duane Model - plotted with group data
30
AMSAA/Duane Model - plotting the data and solving for and
31
AMSAA/Duane Model - plotting by MTBF
32

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Systems Engineering Program

Department of Engineering Management, Information and Systems

Systems Reliability Growth Modeling

Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow

Reliability Development Test Definitions

Reliability Development Test Definitions - continued

Reliability Growth Test Objective and Purpose

Test, Analyze and Fix (TAAF)

The TAAF Process

Selection Criteria for RDT

Reliability Test Length

Reliability Growth Management

Reliability Growth - continued

Reliability Growth Curves

Decision makers can use reliability growth curves

DOD Policy on Reliability Growth and Testing

DOD Policy on Reliability Growth and Testing

MIL-STD-785 states that a properly balanced

Reliability Growth Models

Reliability Growth Model Types

The Duane Model

Reliability Growth Analysis

Jet Engine Control System Reliability - Growth

The Duane Model

The Duane Model

The Duane Model

where rc=the cumulative number of failures in time t,

The Duane Model

The Duane Model

MTBF Growth Curves

Cumulative Test Hours

The Duane Model

The Duane Model

The initial MTBF or failure rate at the beginning of

Failure Rate and MTBF

AMSAA/Duane Model - plotted with group data

AMSAA/Duane Model - plotting the data and solving for and

AMSAA/Duane Model - plotting by MTBF

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