A Vote of Confidence Co in Smartm martmatic?

Roberto V erto Verzola Secretaryetary-General Halalang M lang Marangal rverzola@g la@gn.apc.org

March 8: Smartma full-page ad artmatic

Last March 8, 2010 a full-page ad by S d Smartmatic-TIM came out in severa national dailies. everal The ad was entitled d ³A Vote of Confidence fo the 2010 Elections´ nce for

Hardware / supplies / consumables pplies 

82,200 PCOS manuufactured, delivered 1,722 canvassing and nd consolidation servers rs and printers delivered red 1,722 power generators delivered d  

180,640 compact flash memory cards purchased 82,200 batteries for each PCOS delivered 338,750 rolls for printing 30 copies of ER per pcnt delivered   

82,200 PCOS ma S made, delivered 

Note the careful omission manufactured in ission: Manila, China, delivered in Manil but no mention of full testing and acceptanc by the Comelec eptance Omission creates false im alse impression of readiness In 2004, thorough testing of 1,990 counting machines took 3 months (source: Comelec onths Comm. Mehol Sadain, a HALAL convenor) ain,  

1,722 canvassing a consolidation sing and servers and print d printers delivered

No mention of test results ion or Comelec a elec acceptance

1,722 power gener generators delivered

No mention of test results ion or Comelec a elec acceptance

180,640 compact flash memory mpact cards pur ds purchased 

Each machine uses two memory cards s 82,200 PCOS machines, including backups hines, 82,200 x 2 = 164,400 me 00 memory cards needed 16,240 180,640±164,400 = 16,2 extra memory cards 471 pr There are only 75,471 precinct clusters capability to substitute Warning: potential capab memory cards in 21.5% o PCOS machines 1.5% of     

Hardware / supplies / consumables pplies 

Unknown test results: lts: 


82,200 PCOS and batteri batteries 1,722 canvassing and co nd consolidation servers, printers, generators 

180,640 compact flash m lash memory cards; at least 20% more than necessa cessary

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: SU

80%

Software / cer e certifications / voter education er edu 

Source code customization finished hed Source code in escrow at BSP System audit internationallyrecognized certification entity finished  

Source code public review process opened Successful field tests and mock elections Voter education websites launched Voter educn TV and radio infomercials    

Source code custom customization finished 

³Customization´ included disabling of voter luded verification and confirma firmation feature which is built into the PCOS mach machine. This feature would have displayed the names of candidates marked in the ballot. Voters must then confirm through a C h CAST button that their ballot was scanned accu accurately. It assures voters that their votes were scanned at the accurately. This feature w disabled. ature was  

Source code in e e escrow at BSP 

Source code is Smartma artmatic's general instructions directed to e d every machine No mention of source co certification by rce code Systest, for which Comelec paid P72 million Come No mention of any certific certification document, or of the full Systest report, on its source code review ort, Insiders cite ³series of wr s written exchanges´ between Systest and Co nd Comelec about the review Release the full text of th Systest review NOW t the    

System audit by i it internationallyrecognized certif certification entity
System audit covers m aud not only the so source code but all the five s sub-systems essential to AE success l AES Smartmatic claims ³finishe But no certification, inished´. much less a full report, ha been released to the rt, has public. Full audit report must be released.

Source c urce code public review pro w process opened

Process is high restrictive highly and makes a review extremely difficult eview So far, no group has managed to conduct a c uct code review

Successful f ssful field tests and mock e ock elections 

WHAT A LIE! 

High ballot rejection rates (light shading of ovals allot rejection) should not cause ballot re ems even in Metro Manila Transmission problems e e accuracy/error rates Blackout on machine acc 

 

ill A contractor that will put such a lie in a full-page ything ad can lie about anything

Software / cer e certifications / voter education er edu 

System audit and source code review: no full ource text report or certification released ication Source code public revie no local group has review: done a code review Successful field tests and mock elections: ts
What a lie!  

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: SU

70%

Logistics / Support / Preparations upport 

28 multinational experts at the PMT 327 qualified Filipino organic employees Over 36,000 voting centers surveyed for signal, power, etc. 438 Comelec trainers  

23,000 sqm central warehouse and config facility operational Contracts with logistics providers, forwarders signed Recruitment, training of 48,000 field techs started    

Over 36,000 vo 00 voting centers surveyed for sign power, etc. r signal,

Since there are 48,0 voting centers e 48,000 only 75% have b been covered

904 test and config line employees working tw shifts ing two 

Tests needed 
 

s, batteries, generators, etc. Burn-in of machines, batt ries: will Full testing of batteries: w they last >12 hrs? Testing for failures rates and mean time between failures (MTBF) jection Testing for ballot rejection rates curacy/error rates (should be Testing for scan accuracy ,000 marks) less than 5 per 100,000 m 

 

90 machines took 3 months In 2004, testing 1,990 ma

Contracts with logi th logistics providers, forwarders signed rders 

Relative unknowns. Have you heard of the ff? . (Malaya, 15 March 2010) 


Germalin Enterprises (P2 es (P2.3M 2006 net income) Agro Intl Forwarders (P3. s (P3.7M 2008 retained earnings) dwide ACF Logistics Worldwide (P1.1M 2008 cash balance)  

ry Assuming a delivery team of 3, at least 200,000 needed delivery personnel neede for 75,471 clusters

Recruitment training itment, of 48,000 field t techs started

48,000 field technicians f 75,471 machines? ians for

438 Comelec trainers melec

For 226,000 BE members? 00 BEI

Logistics / Support / Preparations upport 

Over 36,000 voting cente surveyed: 75% centers coverage 438 Comelec trainers: 26 ers: 260,000 BEIs to train Logistics providers, forwa , forwarders: unknowns ng 48,000 field techs: only Recruitment, training of 4 started   

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: SU

80%

Telecommunic munications and Transmis nsmission 

48,000 modems delivered 46,000 SIM cards secured 5,500 BGAN mobile e sat xmtrs purchased d 680 VSAT mobile sat at xmtrs leased  

2 data centers for backup of nationwide results with redundancy secured Contract with major telcos to provide VPN for transmitting results secured   

48,000 modem delivered odems

For 75,471 m ,471 machines? (63.6%) (63.6 How many of them can actually get f a signal in t field? al the

46,000 SIM car secured IM cards
False security: lse se Smartmatic generates pa tes passwords, issues digital certificates, verifies the ce certificates, and operates the machines e mac This is like merging in a single person the ing functions of accounta cashier, auditor, ountant, operator an vendor! tor and

5,500 BGAN mo N mobile sat xmtrs purcha urchased

48,000 + 5,50 = 53,500 5,500

680 VSAT mobile sat xmtrs leased obile s

53,500 + 680 = 54,180 (for 75,471 mach machines, or 71.8%)

2 data centers for b s backup of results with redundan secured ndancy
Data centers in secr locations which n secret the Comelec refuses to reveal to the public ses This is equivalent to co t conducting a canvass in a secret place o lace only the Comelec and Smartm martmatic know

Contract with major telcos to provide VPN for transmitting results secured mitting

According to Smartmati own field surveys, rtmatic's only 70% of voting center have reliable signals centers

Telecommunic munications and Transmis nsmission 

46,000 SIM cards: for 48 48,000 modems? 48,000 modems; 5,500 B ,500 BGAN; 680 mobile sat transmitters: for 75,741 machines? (72%) ,741 m Contract with major telco 70% coverage r telcos: ackup: 2 data centers for backup secret locations   

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: SU

70%

Ballot Printing In ting Infrastructure Delivered to COME COMELEC and NPO 

4 high-speed digital printers 1,500 metric tons of ballot paper 9,380 liters of ink  

Over 10 million ballots with security marks (invisible ultraviolet mark and unique barcode) printed 

Over 10 million ball n ballots with security marks (invisible ultra le ultraviolet mark and unique barcod printed barcode)
Ballot printing begins after a half-day delay s afte
C. LAPEÑA, K. J. TAN, GMANews. News.TV 02/08/2010 | 02:11 PM The printing of ballots for the May 2 2010 elections has finally begun after ³technical considerations" ham " hampered the process, the Commission on Elections (Comelec said Monday. melec) This was announced by Commissio missioner Gregorio Larrazabal at 1 p.m. after printing was delayed by m d more than half a day.

Confidential Marc 1 Comelec l March memo on ballot pr llot printing problem
... The Comelec memorandum noted that a of March 1, some 7.9 million ballots as for the electronic balloting had been printe Of the number, 5.3 million were printed. accepted as ³good ballots,´ while the rest h have yet to be checked. ³Granting that 7,878,480 are all good ballo we still have to print a total of ballots, 42,845,254 for a period of 54 days. This means, we should be able to have a his m daily production of 793,430,629, more or le re less, per day from four printers, which d. is impossible!´ the memorandum read. Smartmatic-TIM has leased to the commis mmission four Kodak VersaMark VL 4000 printers, each capable of printing 200,000 ballots. 0,000 Ladra said the printers¶ daily output was on 650,000 or 162,500 each. At this as only capacity, she said only 34.1 million ballots would be printed by April 25, when allots the Comelec starts to ship out the ballots. (PDI report, 10Mar2010) llots.

7.9 million ball n ballots printed from Feb. 8 to Mar. 1 eb.
ays Ballots Days Rate ate 2/8 ± 3/1 20 7.9 million 394,000/day assuming the sam printing rate... e same 3/2 ± 4/30 60 21. million 21.3 7.9 million + 21.3 mi 1.3 million = 39.2 million If the remaining 10.8 millio ballots are printed at million the same rate, they will be finished on May 27 Dates

1,600 print jobs in 80 days nt
Each municipality/city has its own ballot design ity Each ballot design is one print job esign 1,600 print jobs in 80 days nt is 20 print job per day int jobs What if a printing error is made? inting e Do candidates verif if their names s verify are accurately positione (Due diligence!) sitioned?

4 high-speed di ed digital printers

According to insiders, ding these special K cial Kodak printers are not available off-the-shelf. ailable Kodak mak them k makes only when orders are received

Over 10 million ball n ballots with security marks (invisible ultra le ultraviolet mark and unique barcod printed barcode)
Ultraviolet scann scanning capability disabled, according to CJ Panganiban rding (UV mark is a security feature) se ARMM ballots minus NPO security mark inus

Over 10 million ball n ballots with security marks (invisible ultra le ultraviolet mark and unique barcod printed barcode)

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: SU

80%

Expected probabili babilities of success, as of March 8 Smartmatic ad h Sm
Sub-project Hardware and supp d supplies Software and certif certifications support Logistics and supp nd transmission Telecomms and tra Ballot printing PoS 80% 70% 80% 70% 80%

Basic Prin ic Principle of Project Ma ct Management (and Reliability E bility Engineering)
To get the overall pro all probability of success of a project with a ser series of sub-projects, each one essential to ov l overall project success, multiply to ltiply together each sub-project's pro t's probability of success: .8 x .7 x .8 x .7 x .8 = ?

If each subproje had 99% bproject chances of s s success...

.99 x .99 x .99 x .99 x .99

= .95 .9

If each subproje had 95% bproject chances of s s success...

.95 x .95 x .95 x .95 x .95

= .77 .7

If each subproje had 90% bproject chances of s s success...

.9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 9

= .59 .5

If each subproje had 87% bproject chances of s s success...

.87 x .87 x .87 x .87 x .87

= .498 .49

If each subproje had 80% bproject chances of s s success...

.8 x .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 8

= .33 .3

Estimated AES chan S chances of success, as of March 8 ad by Smartmatic

.8 x .7 x .8 x .7 x .8 7

= .25 .2

Will Smartmatic vo on behalf of atic vote the Filipino people? lipino
The March 8 ad implies that voters have given plies Smartmatic solid vo lid votes of confidence in each of their five auto e automation sub-projects. Smartmatic marked those ovals, not the voters. , Will Smartmatic, a foreign company, pino also speak for Filipino voters on May 10?

I. The COMELE should ... MELEC 

Make public test protocols a test results of every cols and he mean machine, particularly the me time between failures, scan ballot rejection rates, and sc accurary rates st some Allow pol parties to test som machines themselves for Not accept, deploy or pay fo machines which do not meet specifications ± simple due diligence ndomly: Distribute machines random what if bad machines bailiwicks? are sent to opposition bailiw Embargo the 16,240 extra m xtra memory cards    

II. The COMELE should ... MELEC 

Reenable voter verificatio and confirmation if rification accurately by the machine ballot was scanned accu st certification and full reports Make public Systest cert on the system audit and source code review it Provide stakeholder acce to the source code r access on the same terms and c conditions as Systest Make public the series of exchanges between ries Comelec and its Technic Evaluation chnical Committee (TEC) and Sy nd Systest   

III. The COMELE should ... MELEC 

Make public the transmis nsmission and power availability survey report of Smartmatic t field Make public the list of fie offices of all ntracted forwarding firms contract by Smartmatic ntracts Make public the contract with forwarding firms est version of its machine Make public the latest ve ing, delivery and training testing, ballot printing, de timelines   

IV. The COMELE should ... MELEC 

Make public detailed con d continuity plan for areas nals, with weak or no signals, or where transmission failures occur f contracts with telcos Make public copy of cont Come Open to the public Comelec data servers site urity management from Transfer digital security m pendent Smartmatic to independe third party (DOST?)   

V. The COMELE should ... MELEC 

Grant observer status to political parties in the tus mittee ballot printing committee sting Conduct random testing of ballots for quality, machine readability and rejection rates y Allow political parties to i es inspect and test ballot batches themselves s  

To political pa tical parties and the public: be lic: beware of ... 

Location-specific ³proble roblems´, authentic or not:
delivery capabilities, Regional variations in deliv counting quality/reliability of counti machines, modems, lectricity, generators, telco batteries, servers, electric ilability, signals, ballots availability conduct of trainings, etc. voter turnout in favor of These variations can bias v iliwicks some candidate bailiwick over others 

ons: Ballot fraud in millions: it is easier with shading ames ovals than writing names

Reducing the ri of failure risk 

All proposals for ensuring transparency in the suring AES must be heeded ed Every precinct must be a t authorized and prepared to count votes m manually in cases of machine delay or failure, valid but rejected ailure, ballots and for a post-ele st-election manual audit Full parallel count by a co consortium of citizens' groups based on one of t 8 official ER copies ne the must be authorized and d done in public  

Options in case of failure... n 

Orderly constitutional tra al transition must be ensured, if no president, vice-president or ident, senators are proclaimed imed Clarify the role of such in uch interim post-GMA government in settling el ling election disputes or even possibly conducting new credible elections g new, 

Turbulent times are coming

Pray for th best y the Prepare for the worst re

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful