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You are on page 1of 82

Chap 13-2

Learning Objectives

In this chapter, you learn:

How to use regression analysis to predict the value of

a dependent variable based on an independent

variable

The meaning of the regression coefficients b0 and b1

How to evaluate the assumptions of regression

analysis and know what to do if the assumptions are

violated

To make inferences about the slope and correlation

coefficient

To estimate mean values and predict individual values

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-3

relationship between two variables

strength of the association (linear relationship)

between two variables

relationship

Chap 13-4

Introduction to

Regression Analysis

the value of at least one independent variable

variable on the dependent variable

predict or explain

Independent variable: the variable used to predict

or explain the dependent

variable

Chap 13-5

Model

described by a linear function

to changes in X

Chap 13-6

Types of Relationships

Linear relationships

Y

Curvilinear relationships

Y

X

Y

X

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

X

Chap 13-7

Types of Relationships

(continued)

Strong relationships

Y

Weak relationships

Y

X

Y

X

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

X

Chap 13-8

Types of Relationships

(continued)

No relationship

Y

X

Y

X

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-9

Model

Population

Y intercept

Dependent

Variable

Population

Slope

Coefficient

Independent

Variable

Random

Error

term

Yi 0 1Xi i

Linear component

Random Error

component

Chap 13-10

Model

(continued)

Yi 0 1Xi i

Observed Value

of Y for Xi

Predicted Value

of Y for Xi

Slope = 1

Random Error

for this Xi value

Intercept = 0

Xi

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

X

Chap 13-11

Equation (Prediction Line)

The simple linear regression equation provides an

estimate of the population regression line

Estimated

(or predicted)

Y value for

observation i

Estimate of

the regression

Estimate of the

regression slope

intercept

Yi b0 b1Xi

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Value of X for

observation i

Chap 13-12

b0 and b1 are obtained by finding the values of

that minimize the sum of the squared

differences between Y and Y :

2

2

Chap 13-13

Equation

regression results in this chapter, will be

found using Excel or Minitab

who are interested

Chap 13-14

Interpretation of the

Slope and the Intercept

when the value of X is zero

average value of Y as a result of a

one-unit change in X

Chap 13-15

Example

relationship between the selling price of a home

and its size (measured in square feet)

Dependent variable (Y) = house price in $1000s

Independent variable (X) = square feet

Chap 13-16

Example: Data

House Price in $1000s

(Y)

Square Feet

(X)

245

1400

312

1600

279

1700

308

1875

199

1100

219

1550

405

2350

324

2450

319

1425

255

1700

Chap 13-17

Example: Scatter Plot

House price model: Scatter Plot

Chap 13-18

Example: Using Excel

Chap 13-19

Example: Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

41.33032

Observations

ANOVA

10

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 13-20

Example: Minitab Output

The regression

equation is:

Price = 98.2 + 0.110 Square Feet

Predictor

Coef

SE Coef

Constant

98.25

58.03

Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297

T

P

1.69 0.129

3.33 0.010

0.10977 (square feet)

Analysis of Variance

Source

Regression

Residual Error

Total

DF

1

8

9

SS

MS

F

P

18935 18935 11.08 0.010

13666 1708

32600

Chap 13-21

Graphical Representation

House price model: Scatter Plot and Prediction Line

Slope

= 0.10977

Intercept

= 98.248

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-22

Example: Interpretation of bo

house price 98.24833 0.10977 (square feet)

value of X is zero (if X = 0 is in the range of

observed X values)

of 0, b0 has no practical application

Chap 13-23

Example: Interpreting b1

house price 98.24833 0.10977 (square feet)

value of Y as a result of a one-unit

increase in X

house increases by .10977($1000) = $109.77, on

average, for each additional one square foot of size

Chap 13-24

Example: Making Predictions

Predict the price for a house

with 2000 square feet:

98.25 0.1098(200 0)

317.85

The predicted price for a house with 2000

square feet is 317.85($1,000s) = $317,850

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-25

Example: Making Predictions

only predict within the relevant range of data

Relevant range for

interpolation

Do not try to

extrapolate

beyond the range

of observed Xs

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-26

Measures of Variation

SST

SSR

Total Sum of

Squares

Regression Sum

of Squares

SST ( Yi Y )2

SSR ( Yi Y )2

SSE

Error Sum of

Squares

SSE ( Yi Yi )2

where:

i

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-27

Measures of Variation

(continued)

mean Y

(Total Variation)

and Y

Chap 13-28

Measures of Variation

(continued)

Y

Yi

SSE = (Yi - Yi )2

_

SSR = (Yi - Y)2

Xi

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

_

Y

X

Chap 13-29

Coefficient of Determination, r2

of the total variation in the dependent variable

that is explained by variation in the

independent variable

The coefficient of determination is also called

r-squared and is denoted as r2

SSR regression sum of squares

r

SST

total sum of squares

2

note:

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

0 r 1

2

Chap 13-30

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

Y

r2 = 1

r2 = 1

explained by variation in X

r =1

2

between X and Y:

Chap 13-31

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

Y

0 < r2 < 1

between X and Y:

Some but not all of the

variation in Y is explained

by variation in X

X

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-32

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

r2 = 0

No linear relationship

between X and Y:

r2 = 0

depend on X. (None of the

variation in Y is explained

by variation in X)

Chap 13-33

Coefficient of Determination, r2 in Excel

SSR 18934.9348

r

0.58082

SST 32600.5000

2

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

41.33032

Observations

ANOVA

house prices is explained by

variation in square feet

10

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 13-34

Coefficient of Determination, r2 in Minitab

The regression equation is

Price = 98.2 + 0.110 Square Feet

Predictor

Coef

SE Coef

Constant

98.25

58.03

Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297

T

P

1.69 0.129

3.33 0.010

r2

Analysis of Variance

Source

Regression

Residual Error

Total

DF

1

8

9

SS

MS

F

P

18935 18935 11.08 0.010

13666 1708

32600

SSR 18934.9348

0.58082

SST 32600.5000

house prices is explained

by variation in square feet

Chap 13-35

observations around the regression line is

estimated by

n

SSE

S YX

n2

i 1

(Yi Yi ) 2

n2

Where

SSE = error sum of squares

n = sample size

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-36

Standard Error of Estimate in Excel

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

41.33032

Observations

ANOVA

S YX 41.33032

10

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 13-37

Standard Error of Estimate in Minitab

The regression equation is

Price = 98.2 + 0.110 Square Feet

Predictor

Coef

SE Coef

Constant

98.25

58.03

Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297

T

P

1.69 0.129

3.33 0.010

S YX 41.33032

Analysis of Variance

Source

Regression

Residual Error

Total

DF

1

8

9

SS

MS

F

P

18935 18935 11.08 0.010

13666 1708

32600

Chap 13-38

SYX is a measure of the variation of observed

Y values from the regression line

Y

small SYX

large SYX

size of the Y values in the sample data

i.e., SYX = $41.33K is moderately small relative to house prices in

the $200K - $400K range

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-39

Assumptions of Regression

L.I.N.E

Linearity

The relationship between X and Y is linear

Independence of Errors

Error values are statistically independent

Normality of Error

Error values are normally distributed for any given

value of X

Equal Variance (also called homoscedasticity)

The probability distribution of the errors has constant

variance

Chap 13-40

Residual Analysis

ei Yi Yi

between its observed and predicted value

residuals

(homoscedasticity)

Chap 13-41

Y

Not Linear

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

residuals

residuals

Linear

Chap 13-42

Independence

Not Independent

residuals

residuals

residuals

Independent

X

Chap 13-43

Residuals

Examine the Boxplot of the Residuals

Examine the Histogram of the Residuals

Construct a Normal Probability Plot of the

Residuals

Chap 13-44

When using a normal probability plot, normal

errors will approximately display in a straight line

Percent

100

0

-3

-2

-1

Residual

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-45

Equal Variance

Y

x

Non-constant variance

residuals

residuals

Constant variance

Chap 13-46

Example: Excel Residual Output

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Predicted

House Price

Residuals

251.92316

-6.923162

273.87671

38.12329

284.85348

-5.853484

304.06284

3.937162

218.99284

-19.99284

268.38832

-49.38832

356.20251

48.79749

367.17929

-43.17929

254.6674

64.33264

10

284.85348

-29.85348

any regression assumptions

Chap 13-47

Measuring Autocorrelation:

The Durbin-Watson Statistic

detect if autocorrelation is present

time period are related to residuals in

another period

Chap 13-48

Autocorrelation

(residuals) over time

cyclic pattern, not

random. Cyclical

patterns are a sign of

positive autocorrelation

residuals are random and independent

Chap 13-49

autocorrelation

H0: residuals are not correlated

H1: positive autocorrelation is present

n

(e e

i 2

i 1

2

e

i

i1

D should be close to 2 if H0 is true

D less than 2 may signal positive

autocorrelation, D greater than 2 may

signal negative autocorrelation

Chap 13-50

Autocorrelation

H0: positive autocorrelation does not exist

H1: positive autocorrelation is present

Calculate the Durbin-Watson test statistic = D

(The Durbin-Watson Statistic can be found using Excel or Minitab)

(for sample size n and number of independent variables k)

Reject H0

0

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Inconclusive

dL

Do not reject H0

dU

2

Chap 13-51

Autocorrelation

(continued)

Is there autocorrelation?

Chap 13-52

Autocorrelation

(continued)

Excel/PHStat output:

Durbin-Watson Calculations

Sum of Squared

Difference of Residuals

3296.18

Sum of Squared

Residuals

3279.98

Durbin-Watson

Statistic

1.00494

n

(e e

i 2

ei

i1

)2

3296.18

1.00494

3279.98

i 1

Chap 13-53

Autocorrelation

(continued)

significant positive autocorrelation exists

Decision: reject H0 since

D = 1.00494 < dL

Reject H0

Inconclusive

dL=1.29

Do not reject H0

dU=1.45

2

Chap 13-54

coefficient (b1) is estimated by

S YX

Sb1

SSX

S YX

(X X)

where:

Sb1

S YX

SSE

n2

Chap 13-55

t Test

H 0 : 1 = 0

H 1 : 1 0

(linear relationship does exist)

Test statistic

t STAT

b1 1

Sb

d.f. n 2

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

where:

b1 = regression slope

coefficient

1 = hypothesized slope

Sb1 = standard

error of the slope

Chap 13-56

t Test Example

House Price

in $1000s

(y)

Square Feet

(x)

245

1400

312

1600

279

1700

308

1875

199

1100

219

1550

405

2350

324

2450

319

1425

255

1700

house price 98.25 0.1098 (sq.ft.)

Is there a relationship between the

square footage of the house and its

sales price?

Chap 13-57

t Test Example

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

b1

Predictor

Coef

SE Coef

Constant

98.25

58.03

Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297

T

P

1.69 0.129

3.33 0.010

b1

Sb1

Sb1

t STAT

b1 1

Sb

0.10977 0

3.32938

0.03297

Chap 13-58

t Test Example

Test Statistic: tSTAT = 3.329

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

d.f. = 10- 2 = 8

/2=.025

Reject H0

/2=.025

Do not reject H0

-t/2

-2.3060

Reject H0

t/2

2.3060

3.329

Decision: Reject H0

There is sufficient evidence

that square footage affects

house price

Chap 13-59

H: =0

t Test Example

0

H1: 1 0

From Excel output:

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

Predictor

Coef

SE Coef

Constant

98.25

58.03

Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297

T

P

1.69 0.129

3.33 0.010

p-value

There is sufficient evidence that

square footage affects house price.

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-60

F Test statistic:

where

MSR

FSTAT

MSE

MSR

SSR

k

MSE

SSE

n k 1

denominator degrees of freedom

(k = the number of independent variables in the regression model)

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-61

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

41.33032

Observations

ANOVA

MSR 18934.9348

FSTAT

11.0848

MSE 1708.1957

10

df

of freedom

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

p-value for

the F-Test

Significance F

0.01039

Chap 13-62

Minitab Output

Analysis of Variance

Source

Regression

Residual Error

Total

DF

1

8

9

SS

MS

F

P

18935 18935 11.08 0.010

13666 1708

32600

of freedom

FSTAT

p-value for

the F-Test

MSR 18934.9348

11.0848

MSE 1708.1957

Chap 13-63

(continued)

Test Statistic:

H 0 : 1 = 0

H 1 : 1 0

= .05

df1= 1

FSTAT

df2 = 8

Decision:

Reject H0 at = 0.05

Critical

Value:

F = 5.32

Conclusion:

= .05

Do not

reject H0

Reject H0

MSR

11.08

MSE

house size affects selling price

F.05 = 5.32

Chap 13-64

for the Slope

Confidence Interval Estimate of the Slope:

b1 t / 2 S b

d.f. = n - 2

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

the slope is (0.0337, 0.1858)

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-65

for the Slope

(continued)

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

$1000s, we are 95% confident that the average

impact on sales price is between $33.74 and

$185.80 per square foot of house size

This 95% confidence interval does not include 0.

Conclusion: There is a significant relationship between

house price and square feet at the .05 level of significance

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-66

Hypotheses

H0: = 0 (no correlation between X and Y)

H1: 0 (correlation exists)

Test statistic

r -

t STAT

(with n

2 degrees of freedom)

2

1 r

n2

where

r r 2 if b1 0

r r 2 if b1 0

Chap 13-67

(continued)

between square feet and house price at

the .05 level of significance?

H0: = 0

(No correlation)

H1: 0

(correlation exists)

=.05 , df = 10 - 2 = 8

t STAT

r

1 r2

n2

.762 0

1 .762 2

10 2

3.329

Chap 13-68

(continued)

t STAT

r

1 r2

n2

.762 0

1 .762 2

10 2

3.329

Conclusion:

There is

evidence of a

linear association

at the 5% level of

significance

d.f. = 10-2 = 8

/2=.025

Reject H0

-t/2

-2.3060

/2=.025

Do not reject H0

Decision:

Reject H0

Reject H0

t/2

2.3060

3.329

Chap 13-69

Predicting Individual Values

Goal: Form intervals around Y to express

uncertainty about the value of Y for a given Xi

Confidence

Interval for

the mean of

Y, given Xi

Y = b0+b1Xi

Prediction Interval

for an individual Y,

given Xi

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Xi

Chap 13-70

the Average Y, Given X

Confidence interval estimate for the

mean value of Y given a particular Xi

Confidence interval for Y|X X :

i

Y t / 2 S YX hi

Size of interval varies according

to distance away from mean, X

1 (Xi X)2 1

(Xi X)2

hi

n

SSX

n (Xi X)2

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-71

an Individual Y, Given X

Confidence interval estimate for an

Individual value of Y given a particular Xi

Confidence interval for YX X :

i

Y t / 2 S YX 1 hi

the added uncertainty for an individual case

Chap 13-72

Example

Confidence Interval Estimate for Y|X=X

of 2,000 square-foot houses

1

t

Y

S

0.025 YX

n

(X i X) 2

(X i X) 2

317.85 37.12

or from $280,660 to $354,900

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-73

Example

Prediction Interval Estimate for YX=X

house with 2,000 square feet

1

t

Y

S

1

0.025 YX

n

(X i X) 2

(X i X) 2

317.85 102.28

or from $215,500 to $420,070

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-74

Prediction Intervals in Excel

PHStat | regression | simple linear regression

Check the

confidence and prediction interval for X=

box and enter the X-value and confidence level

desired

Chap 13-75

Prediction Intervals in Excel

(continued)

Input values

Y

Confidence Interval Estimate for Y|X=Xi

Prediction Interval Estimate for YX=Xi

Basic Business Statistics, 11e 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc..

Chap 13-76

Prediction Intervals in Minitab

Confidence Interval Estimate for Y|X=Xi

Predicted Values for New Observations

New

Obs Fit SE Fit

95% CI

95% PI

1 317.8 16.1 (280.7, 354.9) (215.5, 420.1)

New Square

Obs Feet

1

2000

Input values

Chap 13-77

underlying least-squares regression

Not knowing how to evaluate the assumptions

Not knowing the alternatives to least-squares

regression if a particular assumption is violated

Using a regression model without knowledge of

the subject matter

Extrapolating outside the relevant range

Chap 13-78

the Pitfalls of Regression

possible relationship

Perform residual analysis to check the

assumptions

assumptions such as homoscedasticity

Use a histogram, stem-and-leaf display, boxplot,

or normal probability plot of the residuals to

uncover possible non-normality

Chap 13-79

the Pitfalls of Regression

(continued)

alternative methods or models

If there is no evidence of assumption violation,

then test for the significance of the regression

coefficients and construct confidence intervals

and prediction intervals

Avoid making predictions or forecasts outside

the relevant range

Chap 13-80

Chapter Summary

Reviewed assumptions of regression and

correlation

Discussed determining the simple linear

regression equation

Described measures of variation

Discussed residual analysis

Addressed measuring autocorrelation

Chap 13-81

Chapter Summary

(continued)

Discussed correlation -- measuring the strength

of the association

Addressed estimation of mean values and

prediction of individual values

Discussed possible pitfalls in regression and

recommended strategies to avoid them

Chap 13-82

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