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THE FUTURE

OF MOBILITY
Ciobanu Mihai Gabriel
1956 IVPA
Transilvania University of Brasov
=2016=

Table of contents
1.Introduction
2.Demographic change, increased
urbanization, and Social trends
3.Vehicle Technology, and Driverless Operation
4.Sustainable Fuel & Powertrain Technologies,
and Composite Chassis Fabrication
5.Infrastructure Improvements
6.Changing Legal Definitions, and Insurance
7.Summary

INTRODUCTION

Imagine a person getting ready for work in the morning. This person prepares as if
it were any ordinary morning. This person has breakfast, gather their papers,
briefcase, and walks out to their car. It is ready to go by the time the driver pulls on
the door handle.
The driver proceeds to the highway, and isn't paying full attention and attempts to
merge on the highway when the car conducts an avoidance maneuver because
another car was in the blind spot, and a warning is displayed on the instrument
panel. The driver regains control of the vehicle, thinking nothing of it, and continues
on to work. The driver then sets the vehicle's Adaptive Cruise Control to follow the
car ahead, and maintain a reasonable 55 miles per hour. The car ahead slows down,
and stops suddenly due to a traffic jam. The vehicle senses this before the driver,
slows down, and stops thus avoiding a rear end collision, before continuing forward.
The system will also follow the bend in the road. All the vehicle requires is that the
driver keep two hands on the steering wheel, while it pampers the driver with a hot
stone back massage, and a symphony of music from the Burmester sound system.

This might appear to be a story of fantasy, or something that will take place
in the
distant future. The reality is the car outlined in the story above is already
available.
The car is the 2014 Mercedes-Benz S-Class (W222). The technology showcased
in
this car is something called
Intelligent Drive.
The automotive
industry has demonstrated a trend
about technology showcased in the
latest Mercedes-Benz S-Class and
how it will eventually trickle-down
to every car within a couple of
decades. This was previously
demonstrated with Mercedes-Benzs safety innovations such as airbags, ABS, and
traction control in the S-Class (Generations: W116, W126, and W140 respectively)
from the 1980s. (Daimler AG, 2014)
New sustainable powertrain technologies will conserve
limited resources, and decrease emissions while offering better performance to
consumers. While this is happening infrastructure improvements will need to take
place to handle changes in the demographic landscape, and automobile
technology.
Further vehicle automation will spur a debate about changing legal definitions,
about liability of autonomous vehicles, and also how to insure them.

Demographic change, increased


urbanization, and Social trends
In the next fifteen to twenty years there will likely be massive demographic
change
in Romania, UE, and the world. This change will transform the automotive
industry. The questions are: who is going to purchase vehicles in the future, how
are
vehicles going to be sold, and what kind of vehicles will consumers want?
Automobile ownership in the future will not totally stop, but it will evolve. The
future buyers of automobiles will have different expectations, and requirements.
For
example, future buyers will have much higher expectations of customer service
throughout the entire purchase, and ownership process. This means that
dealerships will need to invest in their facilities to be more inviting, and deliver
very
high customer service to be even considered. Research suggests, that among
younger buyers attractive dealership showrooms, along with total experience,
price,
and salesperson attitude are important.
Increased urbanization will increase the cost of automobile ownership, and
decrease the desirability of ownership. Future consumers will still desire

Another form of car use that will likely grow popular will be car sharing, where the
consumer pays a monthly subscription to a company like Zipcar, where they will
have on demand access. The consumer simply finds a Zipcar location, scans a
membership card to unlock the car, and drives away. They only need to ensure the
car is kept clean, and that the fuel level is kept above tank. =====CLUJ=====
Car sharing will likely become popular for many reasons. Firstly, it allows the
consumer freedom to live in an urban area without a car, but possess the ability to
use one on demand. Secondly, it removes much of the responsibility for vehicle
ownership like parking, security, and maintenance. Lastly, it eliminates most of the
cost of owning a vehicle such as insurance, gasoline, maintenance, and depreciation.

Vehicle Technology, and


Driverless Operation
Currently the automotive industry is indicating trends in three major areas: vehicle
infotainment/communication systems, and vehicle safety. These three areas seem to
conflict with each other, however more often than not the future automobile will be
safer as a result of improvements in all of these areas.
Apple just recently announced partnerships with several automakers to launch
CarPlay. The user would connect their device to the vehicles infotainment system, and
could use the system just like their iPhone. They could listen to their music from their
iPhone, but also see all of the metadata associated with the song.6 It would also
enable the user to use the navigation system on their iPhone, and other associated
applications.
Blunders like BMWs first generation iDrive lacked a logical user interface, or a
simple controller to input commands.
In addition to improving vehicle infotainment systems, automakers can invest in
making their cars communicate wirelessly with one another to reduce congestion
traffic.
A connected vehicle can provide data to other vehicles about safety hazards, such
as
icy roads, or low visibility. In addition connected vehicles can provide data to each
other on their location to avoid an accident. If an accident were to occur, a
connected vehicle could communicate its location using GPS, and accident data to
emergency responders. Connected vehicles have the potential of preventing around
82% of crash scenarios.

A brief history of these driving systems in the consumer market was first introduced
by Mercedes-Benz, and offered on the W220 S-Class8. This system was called
Distronic, and was referred to as adaptive cruise control. In general, adaptive
cruise control utilizes radar, or laser sensors to determine the distance and speed of vehicle
ahead. The system will vary speed accordingly to maintain a safe distance.

Diagram illustrating the range of Distronic Plus (Daimler AG, 2014)

A successful adaptive cruise control system is the first step in developing a truly
autonomous vehicle. However, a truly autonomous vehicle is reliant upon other systems
to ensure the vehicle is under control. These systems include lane keep assist, blind spot
assist, very accurate GPS, and vision systems.
Autonomous vehicles will be pivotal in improving safety for drivers, passengers, and
the community. For instance, an autonomous vehicle is optimized when it can travel
in a convoy within a dedicated lane on a roadway, separate from manually operated
cars. The fact that an autonomous vehicle eliminates the human variable actually
makes the vehicle become safer not only for the driver but also the community.
The possibilities of these systems in the future are endless. One can imagine the
commute to work could be a time to read news, or simply relax while the car is
driving itself. Another hidden benefit could be that an autonomous vehicle could
drop off a driver at work, return home (or another location), and come back to work
to pick up the driver at the end of shift. Audi has already demonstrated this
kind of technology where the driver exits the car, and activates the system on their
smartphone to park the car.
However, there are some obstacles hindering further implementation of fully
autonomous vehicles. First and foremost is the cost to the automaker for developing
these systems.
Secondly, proper autonomous vehicle infrastructure such as dedicated highway
lanes do not exist. Lastly, changing definitions about legal liability with automated
vehicles will further hinder implementation.
In closing, advancements in both vehicle infotainment and automation will be
beneficial in the coming decades. Innovations in vehicle infotainment systems can
make vehicles safer and easier to use while safely integrating consumer electronics

Sustainable Fuel & Powertrain


Technologies, and Composite Chassis
Fabrication
Concerns about environmental preservation have increasingly been gaining
momentum in the automotive industry. Automakers currently face legislation on
mitigating CO2 emissions9, increasing corporate average fuel economy, and
maximizing vehicle lifecycle sustainability. This trend will likely continue, and CO2
emissions, and corporate fuel economy standards are likely to become more stringent.
Currently there are three trends in the
industry for fuel technology; these include hydrogen, electric, and compressed
natural gas (CNG). Each has its own advantages and disadvantages.
Hydrogen fuel technology is favored by several automakers, so much so that several
have ventured to develop fully functional vehicles for limited release in test markets.
Hydrogen fuel cells offer efficiency, and only emit water emissions. The downside is
safety of the highly flammable fuel cell when there is an accident, and also efficiently
deriving hydrogen from the environment. (Mitchell, Borroni-Bird, & Burns, 2010)
Electric vehicles are currently in vogue, and will likely remain that way for the
foreseeable future. Many manufacturers, and even startups have developed
working, salable vehicles for mass consumption. The greatest success story thus far
is Tesla, not only because of its vehicles, but its charging infrastructure and sales
network.

However, there are several disadvantages to electric vehicles, but Tesla has
seemed
to overcome most them. Most consumers are quite apprehensive about range
anxiety or running out of battery power. Tesla has overcome this objection by
investing in superchargers along highways for owners to refuel their vehicles in
about thirty minutes. Secondly, battery technology is still being refined in terms of
weight and size, which is something Tesla is tirelessly working on. Electric vehicles
will likely be popular in the future as fears of range anxiety subside, and battery
technology is improved.
There is also a third category of vehicle fueling technology: Compressed Natural
Gas
(CNG). A few manufacturers have developed, and are currently selling CNG powered
vehicles.10 CNG powered vehicles can offer lower CO2 emissions than both gasoline,
and diesel vehicles. These types of vehicles offer more range than electric vehicles,
and overcome consumer range anxiety. CNG is often cheaper than gasoline and
diesel, and since most homes have natural gas piped in for heating, consumers could
refuel their vehicles at home. This fuel type could see foreseeable growth in the
future.
Hybrid technologies will likely remain popular into the future. This type of vehicle
is
similar to the Toyota Prius which has a small displacement gasoline motor with an
electric motor to supplement the power the of the gasoline motor. These types of
vehicles offer efficiency at a low cost, and several automakers have started offering
a
hybrid variant to complement each of their existing models.

Infrastructure
Improvements
Automobiles in the future will likely require different infrastructure than what is
currently available. This includes new fueling stations, dedicated lanes for automated
vehicles, and redesigning urban areas for new types of mobility. A delay in developing
new infrastructure will reduce the benefits of automated and green vehicles. These
include changes in services, and roadway infrastructure to support new types of
transportation.
Electric vehicles will require charging stations every 100-200 miles, or at least at a
consistent interval to ensure the vehicle doesnt run out of charge. Each charging
center could be an opportunity for entrepreneurs to have rest areas, food, or shopping
for occupants to relax while their car is charging. Parking areas will also likely need to
consider the increase demand for electric vehicles and offer built in charging stations.
Automated vehicles perform best in convoys
travelling faster and separate from normal traffic. It is likely in the future that the
concept pioneered by the HOV lane, might spawn the creation of an autonomous
vehicle lane. Nevertheless highway planners should investigate ways to incorporate
dedicated lanes for autonomous vehicles in the future.

Solutions are available to roadway planners on how to best design roads that
separate various mobility types and optimize use. One specific example calls for
creating separate lanes for pedestrians, bikes/city cars/segways, public
transportation, and normal traffic
There are solutions available to roadway planners on how to best design roads that
separate various mobility types and optimize use. One specific example calls for
creating separate lanes for pedestrians, bikes/city cars/segways, public
transportation, and normal traffic

Changing Legal Definitions, and


Insurance
It is likely in the future that automated driving systems will be offered by more
automakers making vehicles much safer. However that means there should also be
changes to the legal, and insurance fee structure. There are already technologies
being introduced by automakers that are changing the costs of insurance. Societys
increasing willingness to release data will also change how insurance works.
Autonomous vehicles pose a problem of liability in an accident because it is not the
driver who was driving, it was the car. In todays current legal structure liability
would place blame on the driver for not paying attention. However further
automation will likely place potential liability on the automakers, or the company
developing/manufacturing/souring the automation system. This change in liability
will encourage automakers to make the systems more redundant, and foolproof.
Already several automakers have developed, and sold vehicle active collision
avoidance technology to mitigate the risk of an accident.15 Such technology can
prevent 48 percent of rear-end, and lane change accidents. Some European insurers
acknowledge the benefits of these systems and have offered discounts of around 20
percent off insurance premiums to equipped vehicles.

Summary
The concepts expressed in this paper are likely the best estimates of what to expect
from the global automotive industry in the next 20-30 years. The change will likely
be gradual, but steady as vehicle automation technology diffuses through the
industry. This technology will help improve the safety of automobiles for occupants
and also the community.
However automakers, and retailers must be cognizant of impending demographic
change, and ensure to adapt their product portfolio to evolving consumer needs, and
tastes. Increased urbanization will also prompt firms to rethink car ownership and
use, along with environmental awareness. Regulatory bodies will need to adapt
vehicle classification criteria, and roadway planning to be ready for autonomous
vehicles, and derivatives of personal mobility. Autonomous vehicles, and active
safety systems will likely prompt legal entities, and insurers to rethink liability, and
insurance pricing.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR


ATTENTION!!