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Probability &

Counting Rules

New York : McGraw Hill

Objectives

an event using classical probability or empirical

probability.

Find the probability of compound events using the

addition rules and the multiplication rules.

Find the conditional probability of an event.

Find the total number of outcomes in a sequence of

events, using the fundamental counting rule.

Find the number of ways r objects can be selected

from n objects using the permutation rule.

Find the number of ways r objects can be selected

from n objects without regard to order using the

combination rule.

Find the probability of an event, using the counting

rule.

to well-defined results called outcomes.

An outcome is the result of a single trial of a

probability experiment.

An event consists of a set of outcomes of a

probability experiment.

NOTE: A tree diagram can be used as a

systematic way to find all possible outcomes of

a probability experiment.

H

H

T

Second Toss

H

T

First Toss

outcomes in the sample space are

equally likely to occur.

That is, equally likely events are events

that have the same probability of

occurring.

number of outcomes in E

.

total number of outcomes in the sample space

This probability is denoted by

n( E )

P( E ) =

.

n( S )

This probability is called classical probability ,

and it uses the sample space S .

probability of getting (a) a queen (b) a 6 of clubs

(c) a 3 or a diamond.

Solution:

(a) Since there are 4 queens and 52 cards,

P(queen) = 4/52 = 1/13.

1/13

(b) Since there is only one 6 of clubs, then P(6 of

clubs) = 1/52.

1/52

the 3 of diamonds is counted twice in the

listing. Hence there are only 16

possibilities of drawing a 3 or a diamond,

thus P(3 or diamond) = 16/52 = 4/13.

4/13

of getting a 9.

Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,

and 6, it is impossible to get a 9.

Hence, P(9) = 0/6 = 0.

0

NOTE: The sum of the probabilities of all

outcomes in a sample space is one.

Complement of an Event

The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the

sample space that are not included in the outcomes

of event E . The complement of E is denoted by E ( E bar ).

Rolling a dice and getting a 4.

Solution: Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.

Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting

a vowel.

Solution: Getting a consonant.

weekday.

Solution: Getting Saturday or Sunday.

Selecting a one-child family and getting a

boy.

Solution: Getting a girl.

P(E ) 1 P(E )

or

P(E ) = 1P(E )

or

P ( E ) + P ( E ) = 1.

Empirical Probability

empirical probability is that classical

probability assumes that certain outcomes

are equally likely while empirical probability

relies on actual experience to determine the

probability of an outcome.

the probability of an event being

in a given class is

frequency for the class

P( E ) =

total frequencies in the distribution

f

.

n

This probability is called the empirical

probability and is based on observation.

blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B

blood, and 2 had AB blood. Set up a

frequency distribution.

Type

A

B

AB

O

Frequency

22

5

2

21

50 = n

previous example.

A person has type O blood.

Solution: P(O) = f /n = 21/50.

A person has type A or type B blood.

Solution: P(A or B) = 22/50+ 5/50

= 27/50.

Subjective Probability

an educated guess or estimate,

employing opinions and inexact

information. In subjective

probability, a person or group

makes educated guess at the

chance that an event will occur. This

guess is based on the persons

experience and evaluation of a

solution.

Ex:

A

has 90% chance of winning against

Marquez.

cannot occur at the same time (i.e. they

have no outcomes in common).

Addition Rule 1

mutually exclusive, the probability

that A or B will occur is

P ( A or B ) P ( A ) P ( B )

(R), 13 Democrats (D), and 6 Independents

(I). If a person is selected, find the probability

that he or she is either a Democrat or an

Independent.

Solution: P(D or I) = P(D) + P(I)

= 13/39 + 6/39 = 19/39.

A day of the week is selected at random.

Find the probability that it is a weekend.

Solution: P(Saturday or Sunday)

= P(Saturday) + P(Sunday)

= 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7.

Addition Rule 2

When two events A and B

are not mutually exclusive, the

probabilityy that A or B will

occur is

P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B) P ( A and B )

Addition Rule 2

A and B

(common portion)

five physicians. Seven nurses and three

physicians are females. If a staff person is

selected, find the probability that the subject

is a nurse or a male.

The next slide has the data.

STAFF

STAFF

FEMALES

FEMALES

MALES

MALES

TOTAL

TOTAL

NURSES

NURSES

77

11

88

PHYSICIANS

PHYSICIANS

33

22

55

TOTAL

TOTAL

10

10

33

13

13

= P(nurse) + P(male) P(male nurse) =

8/13 + 3/13 1/13 = 10/13.

driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of a

person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the

probability of a person having a driving accident

while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of

a person driving while intoxicated or having a

driving accident?

Solution:

P(intoxicated or accident)

= P(intoxicated) + P(accident)

P(intoxicated and accident)

= 0.32 + 0.09 0.06 = 0.35.

Probability

fact that A occurs does not affect the

probability of B occurring.

Example: Rolling a dice and getting a 6,

and then rolling another dice and getting a 3

are independent events.

Multiplication Rule 1

When two events A and B

are independent , the

probability of both

occurring is

P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B ).

then a second card is drawn. Find the

probability of getting a queen and then an

ace.

Solution: Because these two events are

independent (why?), P(queen and ace) =

(4/52)(4/52) = 16/2704 = 1/169.

they suffer great stress at least once a week. If

three people are selected at random, find the

probability that all three will say that they suffer

stress at least once a week.

Solution: Let S denote stress. Then

P(S and S and S) = (0.46)3 = 0.097.

show positive is 0.32. If four people are tested,

find the probability that all four will show

positive.

Solution: Let T denote a positive test result.

Then P(T and T and T and T) = (0.32)4 = 0.010.

Probability

event affects the outcome or occurrence of the

second event in such a way that the probability

is changed, the events are said to be

dependent.

Example: Having high grades and getting a

scholarship are dependent events.

Probability

relationship to an event A is the probability that an

event B occurs after event A has already occurred.

The notation for the conditional probability of B

given A is P(B|A).

NOTE: This does not mean B A.

Multiplication Rule 2

When two events A and B

are dependent , the

probability of both

occurring is

P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B| A).

Probability - Example

defective. If two ovens are randomly selected

and tested, find the probability that both are

defective if the first one is not replaced after it

has been tested.

Solution: See next slide.

Probability - Example

dependent,

P(D1 and D2) = P(D1)P(D2| D1)

= (2/25)(1/24)

= 2/600

= 1/300.

Probability - Example

the residents of a city had homeowners insurance

with its company. Of these clients, 27% also had

automobile insurance with the company. If a

resident is selected at random, find the probability

that the resident has both homeowners and

automobile insurance.

Probability - Example

dependent,

P(H and A) = P(H)P(A|H) = (0.53)(0.27)

= 0.1431.

Probability - Example

Box 2 contains three blue balls and one red

ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1

is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails

up, box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find

the probability of selecting a red ball.

P(R|B1) 2/3

P(B1) 1/2

P(B2) 1/2

Red (1/2)(2/3)

Box 1

Blue (1/2)(1/3)

P(B|B1) 1/3

P(R|B2) 1/4

Box 2

Red (1/2)(1/4)

P(B|B2) 3/4 Blue (1/2)(3/4)

Probability - Example

= 2/6 + 1/8 = 8/24 + 3/24 = 11/24.

given that the first event A has occurred can be

found by dividing the probability that both events

occurred by the probability that the first event has

occurred . The formula is

P ( A and B )

P ( B | A) =

.

P ( A)

zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the

probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking

space and has to park in the no-parking zone is

0.2. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to

park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability that

he will get a ticket.

zone and T = getting a ticket.

Then P(T |N) = [P(N and T) ]/P(N) =

0.06/0.2 = 0.30.

thought women in the armed forces

should be permitted to participate in

combat. The results are shown in the

table on the next slide.

Gender

Gender

Yes

Yes

No

No

Total

Total

Male

Male

32

32

18

18

50

50

Female

Female

88

42

42

50

50

Total

Total

40

40

60

60

100

100

yes given that the respondent was a female.

Solution: Let M = respondent was a male;

F = respondent was a female;

Y = respondent answered yes;

N = respondent answered no.

4/25.

Find the probability that the respondent was a

male, given that the respondent answered no.

Solution: P(M|N) = [P(N and M)]/P(N) = [18/100]/

[60/100] = 3/10.

Tree Diagrams

possibilities of a sequence of events in a

systematic way.

New York to Pittsburgh by plane, train, or

bus, and from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati by

bus, boat, or automobile. Display the

information using a tree diagram.

Bus

Boat

Plane, boat

Auto

Plane

New

York

Plane, Bus

Train

Bus

Boat

Auto

Bus

Bus

Boat

Pittsburgh

Auto

Plane, auto

Train, bus

Train, boat

Train, auto

Bus, bus

Bus, boat

Bus, auto

Cincinnati

events in which the first one has k1

possibilities and the second event has k2

and the third has k3, and so forth, the total

possibilities of the sequence will be

k1k2k3kn.

many different ways can she make her

rounds if she visits each patient only

once?

visit and choose from two patients for the

second visit, since there are two left. On the

third visit, she will see the one patient who is

left. Hence, the total number of different

possible outcomes is 3 2 1= 6.

issued special coded identification cards.

The card consists of 4 letters of the

alphabet. Each letter can be used up to 4

times in the code. How many different ID

cards can be issued?

spaces to fill ( _ _ _ _ ). Since there are 26

different letters to select from and each

letter can be used up to 4 times, then the

total number of identification cards that can

be made is 26 2626 26= 456,976.

4-digit ID card. How many different cards are

possible if repetitions are permitted?

Solution: Since there are four spaces to fill

and five choices for each space, the solution

is 5 5 5 5 = 54 = 625.

the previous example?

Solution: The first digit can be chosen in five

ways. But the second digit can be chosen in

only four ways, since there are only four digits

left; etc. Thus the solution is 5 4 3 2 =

120.

Permutations

a, b, and c.

The possible arrangements are: abc, acb, bac, bca,

cab, cba.

If the order of the arrangement is important then we

say that each arrangement is a permutation of the

three letters. Thus there are six permutations of

the three letters.

Permutations

specific order is called a permutation of the

objects.

Note: To determine the number of possibilities

mathematically, one can use the multiplication

rule to get:

3 2 1 = 6 permutations.

Permutations

objects in a specific order using r objects at

a time is called a permutation of n objects

taken r objects at a time. It is written as nPr

and the formula is given by

r)!

nPr = n! / (n r)!.

Permutations - Example

and an assistant chairperson be selected for a

research project if there are seven scientists

available?

Solution: Number of ways

= 7P2 = 7! / (7 2)! = 7!/5! = 42.

42

Permutations - Example

How many different ways can four books

be arranged on a shelf if they can be

selected from nine books?

Solution: Number of ways

=9P4 = 9! / (9 4)! = 9!/5! = 3024.

3024

Combinations

a, b, and c.

The possible arrangements are: abc, acb, bac, bca,

cab, cba.

If the order of the arrangement is not important

then we say that each arrangement is the same.

We say there is one combination of the three

letters.

Combinations

combinations of of r objects from n

objects is denoted by nCr and the formula

is given b nCr = n! / [(n r)!r!] .

Combinations - Example

How many combinations of four objects

are there taken two at a time?

Solution: Number of combinations:

4C2

= 4! / [(4 2)! 2!] = 4!/[2!2!] = 6.

Combinations - Example

local malls, a researcher decides to select 5 malls

from a total of 12 malls in a specific geographic

area. How many different ways can the selection

be made?

Solution: Number of combinations:

12C5 = 12! /

[(12 5)! 5!] = 12!/[7!5!] = 792.

Combinations - Example

committee of 3 women and 2 men is to be chosen.

How many different possibilities are there?

Solution: Number of possibilities: (number of

ways of selecting 3 women from 7) (number of

ways of selecting 2 men from 5) = 7C3 5C2 = (35)

(10) = 350.

Combinations - Example

selected from 5 men and 8 women. How

many ways can the selection be made if

there are at least 3 women on the

committee?

Combinations - Example

women and 2 men, or 4 women and 1 man, or

5 women. To find the different possibilities, find

each separately and then add them:

8C3 5C2 + 8C4 5C1 + 8C5 5C0

= (56)(10) + (70)(5) + (56)(1)

= 966.

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