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Chapter 3

Probability &
Counting Rules

Reference: Allan G. Bluman (2004) Elementary Statistics: A Step-by Step Approach.


New York : McGraw Hill

Objectives

Determine Sample Spaces and find the probability of


an event using classical probability or empirical
probability.
Find the probability of compound events using the
addition rules and the multiplication rules.
Find the conditional probability of an event.
Find the total number of outcomes in a sequence of
events, using the fundamental counting rule.
Find the number of ways r objects can be selected
from n objects using the permutation rule.
Find the number of ways r objects can be selected
from n objects without regard to order using the
combination rule.
Find the probability of an event, using the counting
rule.

Sample Spaces and Probability

A probability experiment is a process that leads


to well-defined results called outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
An event consists of a set of outcomes of a
probability experiment.
NOTE: A tree diagram can be used as a
systematic way to find all possible outcomes of
a probability experiment.

Tree Diagram for Tossing Two Coins


H
H

T
Second Toss
H

T
First Toss

Sample Spaces - Examples

Formula for Classical Probability

Classical probability assumes that all


outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur.
That is, equally likely events are events
that have the same probability of
occurring.

Formula for Classical Probability

The probability of any event E is


number of outcomes in E
.
total number of outcomes in the sample space
This probability is denoted by
n( E )
P( E ) =
.
n( S )
This probability is called classical probability ,
and it uses the sample space S .

Classical Probability - Examples

For a card drawn from an ordinary deck, find the


probability of getting (a) a queen (b) a 6 of clubs
(c) a 3 or a diamond.
Solution:
(a) Since there are 4 queens and 52 cards,
P(queen) = 4/52 = 1/13.
1/13
(b) Since there is only one 6 of clubs, then P(6 of
clubs) = 1/52.
1/52

Classical Probability - Examples

(c) There are four 3s and 13 diamonds, but


the 3 of diamonds is counted twice in the
listing. Hence there are only 16
possibilities of drawing a 3 or a diamond,
thus P(3 or diamond) = 16/52 = 4/13.
4/13

Classical Probability - Examples

When a single dice is rolled, find the probability


of getting a 9.
Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 6, it is impossible to get a 9.
Hence, P(9) = 0/6 = 0.
0
NOTE: The sum of the probabilities of all
outcomes in a sample space is one.

Complement of an Event
The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not included in the outcomes
of event E . The complement of E is denoted by E ( E bar ).

Complement of an Event - Example

Find the complement of each event.


Rolling a dice and getting a 4.
Solution: Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.
Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting
a vowel.
Solution: Getting a consonant.

Complement of an Event - Example

Selecting a day of the week and getting a


weekday.
Solution: Getting Saturday or Sunday.
Selecting a one-child family and getting a
boy.
Solution: Getting a girl.

Rule for Complementary Event

P(E ) 1 P(E )
or
P(E ) = 1P(E )
or
P ( E ) + P ( E ) = 1.

Empirical Probability

The difference between classical and


empirical probability is that classical
probability assumes that certain outcomes
are equally likely while empirical probability
relies on actual experience to determine the
probability of an outcome.

Formula for Empirical Probability

Given a frequency distribution,


the probability of an event being
in a given class is
frequency for the class
P( E ) =
total frequencies in the distribution
f
.
n
This probability is called the empirical
probability and is based on observation.

Empirical Probability - Example

In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O


blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B
blood, and 2 had AB blood. Set up a
frequency distribution.

Empirical Probability - Example

Type
A
B
AB
O

Frequency
22
5
2
21
50 = n

Empirical Probability - Example

Find the following probabilities for the


previous example.
A person has type O blood.
Solution: P(O) = f /n = 21/50.
A person has type A or type B blood.
Solution: P(A or B) = 22/50+ 5/50
= 27/50.

Subjective Probability

- uses a probability value used on


an educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact
information. In subjective
probability, a person or group
makes educated guess at the
chance that an event will occur. This
guess is based on the persons
experience and evaluation of a
solution.

Subjective Probability - Example

Ex:
A

sportscaster may say that Pacquiao


has 90% chance of winning against
Marquez.

The Addition Rules for Probability

Two events are mutually exclusive if they


cannot occur at the same time (i.e. they
have no outcomes in common).

The Addition Rules for Probability

A and B are mutually exclusive

Addition Rule 1

When two events A and B are


mutually exclusive, the probability
that A or B will occur is
P ( A or B ) P ( A ) P ( B )

Addition Rule 1- Example

At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans


(R), 13 Democrats (D), and 6 Independents
(I). If a person is selected, find the probability
that he or she is either a Democrat or an
Independent.
Solution: P(D or I) = P(D) + P(I)
= 13/39 + 6/39 = 19/39.

Addition Rule 1- Example


A day of the week is selected at random.
Find the probability that it is a weekend.
Solution: P(Saturday or Sunday)
= P(Saturday) + P(Sunday)
= 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7.

Addition Rule 2
When two events A and B
are not mutually exclusive, the
probabilityy that A or B will
occur is
P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B) P ( A and B )

Addition Rule 2

A and B

(common portion)

Addition Rule 2- Example

In a hospital unit there are eight nurses and


five physicians. Seven nurses and three
physicians are females. If a staff person is
selected, find the probability that the subject
is a nurse or a male.
The next slide has the data.

Addition Rule 2 - Example

STAFF
STAFF

FEMALES
FEMALES

MALES
MALES

TOTAL
TOTAL

NURSES
NURSES

77

11

88

PHYSICIANS
PHYSICIANS

33

22

55

TOTAL
TOTAL

10
10

33

13
13

Addition Rule 2 - Example

Solution: P(nurse or male)


= P(nurse) + P(male) P(male nurse) =
8/13 + 3/13 1/13 = 10/13.

Addition Rule 2 - Example

On New Years Eve, the probability that a person


driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of a
person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the
probability of a person having a driving accident
while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of
a person driving while intoxicated or having a
driving accident?

Addition Rule 2 - Example

Solution:
P(intoxicated or accident)
= P(intoxicated) + P(accident)
P(intoxicated and accident)
= 0.32 + 0.09 0.06 = 0.35.

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability

Two events A and B are independent if the


fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.
Example: Rolling a dice and getting a 6,
and then rolling another dice and getting a 3
are independent events.

Multiplication Rule 1
When two events A and B
are independent , the
probability of both
occurring is
P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B ).

Multiplication Rule 1 - Example

A card is drawn from a deck and replaced;


then a second card is drawn. Find the
probability of getting a queen and then an
ace.
Solution: Because these two events are
independent (why?), P(queen and ace) =
(4/52)(4/52) = 16/2704 = 1/169.

Multiplication Rule 1 - Example

A Harris pole found that 46% of Americans say


they suffer great stress at least once a week. If
three people are selected at random, find the
probability that all three will say that they suffer
stress at least once a week.
Solution: Let S denote stress. Then
P(S and S and S) = (0.46)3 = 0.097.

Multiplication Rule 1 - Example

The probability that a specific medical test will


show positive is 0.32. If four people are tested,
find the probability that all four will show
positive.
Solution: Let T denote a positive test result.
Then P(T and T and T and T) = (0.32)4 = 0.010.

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability

When the outcome or occurrence of the first


event affects the outcome or occurrence of the
second event in such a way that the probability
is changed, the events are said to be
dependent.
Example: Having high grades and getting a
scholarship are dependent events.

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability

The conditional probability of an event B in


relationship to an event A is the probability that an
event B occurs after event A has already occurred.
The notation for the conditional probability of B
given A is P(B|A).
NOTE: This does not mean B A.

Multiplication Rule 2
When two events A and B
are dependent , the
probability of both
occurring is
P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B| A).

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability - Example

In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens, two are


defective. If two ovens are randomly selected
and tested, find the probability that both are
defective if the first one is not replaced after it
has been tested.
Solution: See next slide.

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability - Example

Solution: Since the events are


dependent,
P(D1 and D2) = P(D1)P(D2| D1)
= (2/25)(1/24)
= 2/600
= 1/300.

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability - Example

The WW Insurance Company found that 53% of


the residents of a city had homeowners insurance
with its company. Of these clients, 27% also had
automobile insurance with the company. If a
resident is selected at random, find the probability
that the resident has both homeowners and
automobile insurance.

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability - Example

Solution: Since the events are


dependent,
P(H and A) = P(H)P(A|H) = (0.53)(0.27)
= 0.1431.

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability - Example

Box 1 contains two red balls and one blue ball.


Box 2 contains three blue balls and one red
ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1
is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails
up, box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find
the probability of selecting a red ball.

Tree Diagram for Example


P(R|B1) 2/3
P(B1) 1/2

P(B2) 1/2

Red (1/2)(2/3)

Box 1
Blue (1/2)(1/3)
P(B|B1) 1/3
P(R|B2) 1/4
Box 2
Red (1/2)(1/4)
P(B|B2) 3/4 Blue (1/2)(3/4)

The Multiplication Rules and Conditional


Probability - Example

Solution: P(red) = (1/2)(2/3) + (1/2)(1/4)


= 2/6 + 1/8 = 8/24 + 3/24 = 11/24.

Conditional Probability - Formula

The probability that the second event B occurs


given that the first event A has occurred can be
found by dividing the probability that both events
occurred by the probability that the first event has
occurred . The formula is
P ( A and B )
P ( B | A) =
.
P ( A)

Conditional Probability - Example

The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking


zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the
probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking
space and has to park in the no-parking zone is
0.2. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to
park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability that
he will get a ticket.

Conditional Probability - Example

Solution: Let N = parking in a no-parking


zone and T = getting a ticket.
Then P(T |N) = [P(N and T) ]/P(N) =
0.06/0.2 = 0.30.

Conditional Probability - Example

A recent survey asked 100 people if they


thought women in the armed forces
should be permitted to participate in
combat. The results are shown in the
table on the next slide.

Conditional Probability - Example

Gender
Gender

Yes
Yes

No
No

Total
Total

Male
Male

32
32

18
18

50
50

Female
Female

88

42
42

50
50

Total
Total

40
40

60
60

100
100

Conditional Probability - Example

Find the probability that the respondent answered


yes given that the respondent was a female.
Solution: Let M = respondent was a male;
F = respondent was a female;
Y = respondent answered yes;
N = respondent answered no.

Conditional Probability - Example

P(Y|F) = [P( F and Y) ]/P(F) = [8/100]/[50/100] =


4/25.
Find the probability that the respondent was a
male, given that the respondent answered no.
Solution: P(M|N) = [P(N and M)]/P(N) = [18/100]/
[60/100] = 3/10.

Tree Diagrams

A tree diagram is a device used to list all


possibilities of a sequence of events in a
systematic way.

Tree Diagrams - Example

Suppose a sales person can travel from


New York to Pittsburgh by plane, train, or
bus, and from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati by
bus, boat, or automobile. Display the
information using a tree diagram.

Tree Diagrams - Example


Bus
Boat

Plane, boat

Auto

Plane

New
York

Plane, Bus

Train

Bus
Boat
Auto

Bus

Bus
Boat

Pittsburgh

Auto

Plane, auto
Train, bus
Train, boat
Train, auto
Bus, bus
Bus, boat
Bus, auto

Cincinnati

The Multiplication Rule for Counting

Multiplication Rule : In a sequence of n


events in which the first one has k1
possibilities and the second event has k2
and the third has k3, and so forth, the total
possibilities of the sequence will be
k1k2k3kn.

The Multiplication Rule for Counting Example

A nurse has three patients to visit. How


many different ways can she make her
rounds if she visits each patient only
once?

The Multiplication Rule for Counting Example

She can choose from three patients for the first


visit and choose from two patients for the
second visit, since there are two left. On the
third visit, she will see the one patient who is
left. Hence, the total number of different
possible outcomes is 3 2 1= 6.

The Multiplication Rule for Counting Example

Employees of a large corporation are to be


issued special coded identification cards.
The card consists of 4 letters of the
alphabet. Each letter can be used up to 4
times in the code. How many different ID
cards can be issued?

The Multiplication Rules for Counting Example

Since 4 letters are to be used, there are 4


spaces to fill ( _ _ _ _ ). Since there are 26
different letters to select from and each
letter can be used up to 4 times, then the
total number of identification cards that can
be made is 26 2626 26= 456,976.

The Multiplication Rule for Counting Example

The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in a


4-digit ID card. How many different cards are
possible if repetitions are permitted?
Solution: Since there are four spaces to fill
and five choices for each space, the solution
is 5 5 5 5 = 54 = 625.

The Multiplication Rule for Counting Example

What if the repetitions were not permitted in


the previous example?
Solution: The first digit can be chosen in five
ways. But the second digit can be chosen in
only four ways, since there are only four digits
left; etc. Thus the solution is 5 4 3 2 =
120.

Permutations

Consider the possible arrangements of the letters


a, b, and c.
The possible arrangements are: abc, acb, bac, bca,
cab, cba.
If the order of the arrangement is important then we
say that each arrangement is a permutation of the
three letters. Thus there are six permutations of
the three letters.

Permutations

An arrangement of n distinct objects in a


specific order is called a permutation of the
objects.
Note: To determine the number of possibilities
mathematically, one can use the multiplication
rule to get:
3 2 1 = 6 permutations.

Permutations

Permutation Rule : The arrangement of n


objects in a specific order using r objects at
a time is called a permutation of n objects
taken r objects at a time. It is written as nPr
and the formula is given by
r)!
nPr = n! / (n r)!.

Permutations - Example

How many different ways can a chairperson


and an assistant chairperson be selected for a
research project if there are seven scientists
available?
Solution: Number of ways
= 7P2 = 7! / (7 2)! = 7!/5! = 42.
42

Permutations - Example
How many different ways can four books
be arranged on a shelf if they can be
selected from nine books?
Solution: Number of ways
=9P4 = 9! / (9 4)! = 9!/5! = 3024.
3024

Combinations

Consider the possible arrangements of the letters


a, b, and c.
The possible arrangements are: abc, acb, bac, bca,
cab, cba.
If the order of the arrangement is not important
then we say that each arrangement is the same.
We say there is one combination of the three
letters.

Combinations

Combination Rule : The number of


combinations of of r objects from n
objects is denoted by nCr and the formula
is given b nCr = n! / [(n r)!r!] .

Combinations - Example
How many combinations of four objects
are there taken two at a time?
Solution: Number of combinations:
4C2
= 4! / [(4 2)! 2!] = 4!/[2!2!] = 6.

Combinations - Example

In order to survey the opinions of customers at


local malls, a researcher decides to select 5 malls
from a total of 12 malls in a specific geographic
area. How many different ways can the selection
be made?
Solution: Number of combinations:
12C5 = 12! /
[(12 5)! 5!] = 12!/[7!5!] = 792.

Combinations - Example

In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A


committee of 3 women and 2 men is to be chosen.
How many different possibilities are there?
Solution: Number of possibilities: (number of
ways of selecting 3 women from 7) (number of
ways of selecting 2 men from 5) = 7C3 5C2 = (35)
(10) = 350.

Combinations - Example

A committee of 5 people must be


selected from 5 men and 8 women. How
many ways can the selection be made if
there are at least 3 women on the
committee?

Combinations - Example

Solution: The committee can consist of 3


women and 2 men, or 4 women and 1 man, or
5 women. To find the different possibilities, find
each separately and then add them:
8C3 5C2 + 8C4 5C1 + 8C5 5C0
= (56)(10) + (70)(5) + (56)(1)
= 966.