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Model Robustness

Rajalingam R

Scope

2) Tools for making models robust

3) Model Identification - DMC

FIR Identification

Subspace identification

4) Model Robustness

Example

Equation

Solution

February 21, 2016

Model Robustness

FIR is Multiple input and Single Output Model (MISO)

Subspace is Multiple input Multiple Output Model (MIMO)

Model Uncertainty:

Time Domain and Frequency Domain Analysis

Correlations:

Auto correlation & Cross correlation analysis

Condition number and RGA:

Condition Number

Relative Gain analysis

Model Identification

Model Identification

Finite Impulse Response Identification (FIR ID)

What is FIR ID?

FIR ID parameters

Subspace Identification (SS ID)

What is SS ID?

SS ID parameters

FIR ID vs. SS ID

Linear Models

Structure

Empirical/data-based

Mathematical Linear/non-linear

form

First principles

Linear/non-linear

Static pressure with respect to depth of liquid

Volume of a vertical cylinder with respect to level

Examples of Non-linear models:

In distillation column, the change in purity with Reboiler Duty will be more when

Reflux Ratio is small; and vice versa

Linearization

If non-linear, then use a suitable transform (like LOG transform) to make the

relation linear.

10

1

A1

A2

12

12

12

12

CV4

CV5

CV6

CV7

9

6

2

CV

CV0

CV1

CV2

CV3

I1 +1 I1,1

I2

+1

I2,1

11

Identification

CV = A * I, I=MV

Calculate

Known

Known

CV1 a1

CV a

2

2

CV3 a3

CV4 a 4

CV5 a 4

CV6 a 4

CV a

7

a1

a2

a3

a4

a4

a4

a1

a2

a3

a4

a4

a1

a2

a3

a 4

I1

I

* 2

I3

I

4

Identification

Preservation of Scale

Response to a change in the independent:

CV4

CV3

CV2

Dep.

CV0

Time

Ind.

a4

a3

CV1

0

CV5

a5

a2

a1

2

CV1 - CV0

CV2 - CV0

CV3 - CV0

CV4 - CV0

CV5 - CV0

CV6 - CV0

Reliance Technology Group APC / RTO

=

=

=

=

=

=

a1

a2

a3

a4

a5

a5

13

* (I)

* (I)

* (I)

* (I)

* (I)

* (I)

For Internal Circulation

Identification

6

4

CV

-1

-2

-5

-7

-7

-8

-12

-14

Time

Ind.

-14

+1

-2

0

2

CV5 CV0 7 * (1) 7 * (0) 6 * (-2) -5

CV6 CV0 7 * (1) 7 * (0) 7 * (-2) -7

CV7 CV0 7 * (1) 7 * (0) 7 * (-2) -7

14

February 21, 2016

15

Output vector can be written as a combination of inputs vector:

y[t] = h0 x[t] + h1 x[t-1] + h2 x[t-3]+ + hk-1 x[t-(k-1)] + hk x[t-k]

x[t] change in independent variable

y[t] change in dependent variable

k = Time to Steady State

t = time

We usually assume that h0= 0, i.e., the system

Now, by least square objective function, we can find

out the step response coefficients {h 0,h1,h2,,hk}

16

17

Any step response can be represented as superposition of various impulses:

{1,1,1.,1} = {1,0,0,,0} + {0,1,0,,0} + {0,0,1,0} + . { 0,0,0,1}

{0,h1,h2,h3,,0} + {0,0,h1,h2,h3,0} + {0,0,0,h1,h2,h3,0} + . { 0,0,0,hn}

Impulse response coefficients

Step-Response coefficients

February 21, 2016

18

Steps to determine the unit step response(s)

During a test period, collect time-stamped process data

from the system for all independent and dependent

variables

From the collected data, calculate CV and I

Solve the control equation, CV = A * I, for the unit step

response coefficients, the A matrix

FIR Identification

Equations for predicting the linear system

CV2 CV0 (I2 I1 ) * a1 (I1 I0 ) * a 2

CV3 CV0 (I3 I2 ) * a1 (I2 I1 ) * a 2 (I1 I0 ) * a3

CV4 CV0 (I4 I3 ) * a1 (I3 I2 ) * a 2 (I2 I1 ) * a3 (I1 I0 ) * a 4

CV5 CV0 (I5 I4 ) * a1 (I4 I3 ) * a 2 (I3 I2 ) * a3 (I2 I1 ) * a 4 (I1 I0 ) * 0

after 4 intervals. So, there are

only 4 a coefficients.

Step-Response Form of the Identification Problem

CV1 CV0 (I1 I0 ) * a1

CV2 CV0 (I2 I1 ) * a1 (I1 I0 ) * a 2

CV3 CV0 (I3 I2 ) * a1 (I2 I1 ) * a 2 (I1 I0 ) * a3

CV4 CV0 (I4 I3 ) * a1 (I3 I2 ) * a 2 (I2 I1 ) * a3 (I1 I0 ) * a 4

CV5 CV0 (I5 I4 ) * a1 (I4 I3 ) * a 2 (I3 I2 ) * a3 (I2 I1 ) * a 4

CV1 a1

CV a

2

2

CV3 a3

CV4 a 4

CV5 a 4

CV6 a 4

CV a

7

a1

a2

a3

a4

a4

a4

a1

a2

a3

a4

a4

a1

a2

a3

a 4

I1

I

* 2

I3

I

4

CV1 I1

CV I

2

2

CV3 I3

CV4 I4

CV5 I5

CV6 I6

CV I

7

Complete equations

(useful)

I1

I2

I3

I4

I5

I6

I1

I2

I3

I4

I5

I1

I2

I3

I4

a1

a

* 2

a3

a4

A period of bad data should not invalidate the entire data set

In the step-form of the algorithm

CV0 appears in each equation

Only one continuous section of data can be analyzed using this algorithm step

response algorithm

Bad data within a data set invalidates the data set

Process problem/upset

Computer problem

Hardware/instrumentation failure

Valve saturation

Atypical disturbance

CV1 CV0 (I1 I0 ) * a1

CV2 CV0 (I2 I1 ) * a1

- CV1 CV0

(I1 I0 ) * a 2

(I1 I0 ) * a1

(I1 I0 ) * (a 2 - a1 )

(I2 I1 ) * a 2

- CV2 CV0

Subtract pairs of

(I2 I1 ) * a1

equations to

(I1 I0 ) * a3

(I1 I0 ) * a 2

(I2 I1 ) * (a2 a1 )

(I1 I0 ) * (a3 a 2 )

(I3 I2 ) * a 2

(I2 I1 ) * a3

- CV3 CV0

(I3 I2 ) * a1

(I2 I1 ) * a 2

remove CV0

(I1 I0 ) * a 4

(I1 I0 ) * a3

(I3 I2 ) * (a 2 a1 )

(I2 I1 ) * (a3 a 2 )

(I1 I0 ) * (a 4 a3 )

(I4 I3 ) * a 2

(I3 I2 ) * a3

(I2 I1 ) * a 4

(I1 I0 ) * a 4

(I2 I1 ) * a3

(I1 I0 ) * a 4

- CV4 CV0

CV5 CV4 (I5 I4 ) * a1

(I4 I3 ) * a1

(I4 I3 ) * (a 2 a1 )

(I3 I2 ) * a 2

(I3 I2 ) * (a3 a 2 )

(I2 I1 ) * (a 4 a3 )

Define bi as the impulse coefficient: ai - ai-1

b1 a1

b 2 a 2 a1

b3 a3 a 2

b 4 a 4 a3

CV1 CV0 (I1 I0 ) * b1

CV2 CV1 (I2 I1 ) * b1 (I1 I0 ) * b 2

CV3 CV2 (I3 I2 ) * b1 (I2 I1 ) * b 2 (I1 I0 ) * b3

CV4 CV3 (I4 I3 ) * b1 (I3 I2 ) * b 2 (I2 I1 ) * b3 (I1 I0 ) * b 4

CV5 CV4 (I5 I4 ) * b1 (I4 I3 ) * b 2 (I3 I2 ) * b3 (I2 I1 ) * b 4

Characteristics

Benefit:

Data Slicing is Allowed: Change in the dependent variable is only a

function of the past changes in independent variables for a time equal

to the time to steady-state

Penalty:

Additional noise results from taking the derivative of the dependent

variable

FIR Identification:

Simultaneous Independent Variable Moves

for a full time to steady-state without other movement in other independent

variables

Operations needs to make a move

Feedforward, disturbance, variable moves

these additional moves

We need a solution method that is tolerant of multiple moves within a single

Tss

FIR Identification:

Simultaneous Identification of Models

CV1 I1,1

CV I

2

1,2

CV3 I1,3

CV

4

I1,4

CV5 I1,5

CV6 I1,6

CV I

7

1,7

CV8 I1,8

CV I

9

1,9

I1,1

I1,2

I1,3

I1,4

I1,5

I1,6

I1,7

I1,8

I1,1

I1,2

I1,3

I1,4

I1,5

I1,6

I1,7

I1,1

I1,2

I1,3

I1,4

I1,5

I1,6

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

I2,7

I2,8

I2,9

Simultaneous

identification

of model

coefficients

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

I2,7

I2,8

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

I2,7

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

b1,1

b

1,2

b1,3

b

1,4

*

b2,1

b

2,2

b

2,3

b2,4

FIR Identification:

Simultaneous Identification of Models

residual form: CV - A * I = R

CV1 I1,1

CV I

2

1,2

CV3 I1,3

CV

4

I1,4

CV5 I1,5

CV6 I1,6

CV I

7

1,7

CV8 I1,8

CV I

9

1,9

I1,1

I1,2

I1,3

I1,4

I1,5

I1,6

I1,7

I1,8

I1,1

I1,2

I1,3

I1,4

I1,5

I1,6

I1,7

I1,1

I1,2

I1,3

I1,4

I1,5

I1,6

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

I2,7

I2,8

I2,9

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

I2,7

I2,8

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

I2,7

I2,1

I2,2

I2,3

I2,4

I2,5

I2,6

r1

b1,1

b r2

1,2 r

b1,3 3

r4

b

1,4

*

r

b2,1 5

r6

b

2,2

b r7

2,3 r8

b2,4

r9

the response coefficients while minimizing R2

Calculate the sum of the squared residual terms:

ri 2

Sum of Squared Residuals

Summary

Benefit

Simultaneous solution allows for changes in more than one

independent at a time during the test

Implication/Penalty

Identifying the individual responses requires uncorrelated movement in

the independent variables during the plant test

Models are identified simultaneously so changing the list of

independents may change the model coefficients

A period of bad data should not invalidate the entire

data set

Solve the impulse-form rather than the step-form of the

algorithm

to change at the same time

Solve

for

all

independent/CV

response

coefficients

FIR parameters

1. Time to steady state (TTSS)

2. Number of coefficients

3. Smoothing factor

33

Process settling time (steady-state time)

Length of the step response models in time

Number of coefficients

More coefficients required for accurate modeling of fast responses (less time

between coefficients)

Smoothing

Penalty for change from one coefficient to next

Model fit is not significantly degraded

The number of model coefficients, or the number of points used to draw the

line is related to the controller execution frequency and the T ss:

Controller Execution

Interval

Data

* Collection

Number of Model Coefficients

Interval

Control interval needs to be fast enough so that the controller can respond to

the fastest measured/ unmeasured independent disturbances in the system

Ideally, the controller is running fast enough that it has 5 to 10 executions to handle

a disturbance before it becomes a problem

It decides oversampling ratio in model identifications.

Sampling time = Settling time / Step-response coefficients

37

Oversampling Ratio = 1

Oversampling Ratio = 2

38

FIR smoothing algorithm will adversely affect model responses with faster initial

dynamics, like valve positions. We can use un-smoothed response models

instead, and use curve operations to remove noise and squiggles from the model.

39

SF= 5

SF= 0.01

40

FIR ID is time domain approach. Consider the following equations:

Given the complexity of differential equations, why would we ever want to work in the time

domain?

The Laplace transform moves us out of the time-domain into the complex frequency domain, so

that

we can study and manipulate our systems as algebraic polynomials instead of linear ODEs.

(1 + 2s + 5s2)X(s) = (1 + s)Y(s)

That's right, the Laplace transform is hiding the fact that we are actually dealing with second-order

differential equations. In the Laplace or time domain, if we want to account for systems with

multiple inputs and multiple outputs, we are going to need to rely on the principle of

superposition to create a system of simultaneous Laplace equations (or time-domain based

equations) for each output and each input. For such systems, the classical approach doesn't

simplify the situation in MIMO case.

FIR models are Single input single output models (SISO) and can be extended for

Multiple input single output (MISO). So, a case containing multiple CVs is run as

combination of MISO models for each CV.

February 21, 2016

41

State-space Approach

It turns out that if we decompose our higher-order differential equations into multiple first-order

equations, we can find a new method for easily manipulating the system in MIMO models. The

solution to this problem is state space approach.

State

Central to the state-space notation is the idea of a state. A state of a system is the current value

of internal elements of the system, that change separately to (but not completely unrelated to)

the output of the system. Here are some examples:

Consider a chemical reaction where certain reagents are poured into a mixing container, and the output is the amount of the

chemical product produced over time. The state variables may represent the amounts of un-reacted chemicals in the container,

or other properties such as the quantity of thermal energy in the container (that can serve to facilitate the reaction).

We denote the input variables with u, the output variables with y, and the state variables with x. In essence,

we have the following relationship:

y = f(x, u)

Where f(x, u) is our system. Also, the state variables can change with respect to the current state and the

system input:

x' = g(x, u)

Where x' is the rate of change of the state variables.

42

State Definition

State variables = memory elements = contains all the information from the

past that is relevant for predicting the future

If we describe system as an operating mapping from the space of input to

the space of output, then we may need the entire input-output history of

the systems together with the planned input in order to compute future

output values. Alternatively, we may use state variables which has all

history of input and Output variables.

Order of model = number of states (n)

43

Subspace is MIMO model identification; but when number of unrelated CVs are large in

case, then it increases computation time, and benefits were limited compared to running

multiple smaller cases.

The subspace identification algorithm can optimize case runs by using CV grouping. The

CV cross correlation is used to determine groups of CV that share common dynamics,

and create internal sub-case for those related CVs (MIMO for each internal sub case).

By keeping related CVs together the underlying states will be identified with more

certainty. By removing unrelated CVs the computation time per subgroup is decreased.

CV grouping alternatives

1)Group Related CVs (Auto-grouping, Default) maximum of 10 CVs for one sub-case

2)One CV per Group (Forced MISO ID) with this option, the users are able to compare

the MISO subspace ID with the FIR ID in a similar internal setup

3)All CVs in One Group (Forced Large MIMO ID) set as one large MIMO

4)Set Maximum CV Group Size (MIMO ID with certain number CVs per group) gives

flexibility to modify the default maximum CVs of 10 per group

Allows users to gain/validate their knowledge about the CVs correlation in their

process, compare models with different setups, and retune the default parameters when

necessary.

February 21, 2016

44

45

Theoretically, TTSS value have no direct impacts on the subspace ID, because TTSS is

not a dependent parameter in subspace ID and it only determines how many model curve

coefficients will be generated from a subspace model identified.

However, Detrending filters that will be calculated upon TTSS values affect Subspace ID

for different TTSS.

46

except TTSS.

47

48

States do not necessarily have a direct physical interpretations, but they have a

conceptual relevance.

Maximum states per CV group, which is an upper bound of the model order (i.e.

maximum number of states allowed) for each CV group sub-case.

This parameters allows user to set a model order search range, or force the subspace

algorithm to fit a low-order model with truncation error

When to reduce the maximum states per CV group?

49

50

High-frequency dynamic behavior of model is caused by a high model order, and a model

reduction can help to damp the high frequency noise.

51

52

This parameter is the identification horizon used in the identification. It is exactly

the number of data points in the future and past data horizon. The larger the

Maximum order per I/O pair, the higher order model will be identified in order to

cover longer (complex) dynamics. The computation will also be heavier.

53

If very different maximum order per I/O are used in subspace case, then even if the same

final model order is selected, the calculated models are bound to be different

.

The amount of data used for initializing the identification run depends on maximum order

(not the final order it eventually selects), so if you select a high max order, more data is

lost. If useful data is lost, (e.g. the only big step you have) then the model can degrade. If

bad data is lost, then the model can actually improve. So as before with DMI, be careful

with slicing. At least you lose much less data than before.

Let's assume max order = n. Then n previous n data points are then used to predict the

next n steps into the future. The cost function is determined from the difference between

predicted CV's and observed CV's over these n steps. This means that a high max order

favors the long term prediction accuracy, while lower max orders will favor the short term

prediction accuracy of the models.

54

55

56

57

All process units are disturbed by

several drift disturbances.

Drift disturbances are kind of

disturbances for which you dont

have measure, and it is not possible to

include them as FF signal. Because of

these drift disturbances, your process

gain changes over time.

Example: in heat exchanger, process

stream is being heated by MP steam.

Now, heat exchanger will be

progressively fouling. So over a

period time , heat transfer coefficient

will come down, and for the same

amount of steam change (say 1tph);

temperature change of the outlet

process steam will not be the same

(will be the less as more and more

fouling happens).

58

Available option on data preprocessing are listed below:

1)Detrending

2)Differencing

3)Zero-mean

4)Double Diff

Detrending: Process test data often contains low frequency drift that is introduced by unknown disturbances. These low

frequency disturbances will create negative impacts on identification and has to be eliminated. The option Detrending is

designed to do that job.

Assume a measured signal can be divided into a process signal and a trend signal.

The pre-process of data with Detrending will estimate the trend signal and remove it from the system . By default, the timeconstant of Detrending filter is calculated based on the cases TTSS:

Basis for 3*TTSS and 6*TTSS - how much Detrending filter should be used?

If central average is calculated over a period of 3*TTSS, then filter operation tends to remove only slow drift

disturbances and leave dynamic information mostly intact. A too small TTSS value for a case may lead to an overDetrending that may remove useful dynamic information from the data and cause inaccurate models.

59

60

Differencing: y=x(t+1) x(t)

Similar to Detrending, differencing is also intended to remove slow drifts from the process data. The

FIR model ID has been using differencing as a data pre-processing strategy since the DMC was first

built. Differencing can remove the slow disturbance, but it reduces Signal to Noise (S/N) ratio.

Therefore, for better model gains and less stringent requirements on S/N, the Detrending is

recommended in place of differencing.

Zero mean: It simply removes only an offset from raw data. It should be aware that there will be

multiple offsets if data consists of several slices. The Zero-mean operation will be performed on each

data slices.

61

Double Differencing: z = y (t+1) y (t) = x(t+1)- x(t) x(t) +x (t-1)

= x(t+1) 2 x(t) + x (t-1)

Double differencing was originally designed for Ramp and Pseudo-Ramp CV in FIR

ID operation. For subspace ID, it is no longer the only way to preprocess Ramp

CVs. Either Differencing or Double Differencing as an option was selected, a single

Differencing will be first applied to a Ramp or Pseudo-Ramp CV.

In addition, Ramp CV or Pseudo-Ramp CV are always put into one or more Ramp

CV group by the Auto-grouping algorithm in order to separate Ramp CVs from nonRamp CVs.

62

high frequency sampling and the final model for on-line

control will be run in slower control sampling frequency, a

value of greater than one can be used to match the

models

sampling

rate

with

the

controllers

measurements. Eg GC analyzers

63

SR=10, and it is lagging

behind SR=1 curve

The model you get by setting Over-Sampling Ratio = 1 will

have less precise gain but less delay with the dynamics.

Dynamic delay means the model calculated by SS is

slower than real system

64

65

66

67

In subspace algorithm, how much data loss will happen on data

slicing depends on the maximum order (n) per I/O pair. n data points

are lost after each bad slice.

In FIR algorithm, how much data loss will happen on data slicing

depends on the time to steady state (Tss). Data of time period equal

to one Time to Steady state is lost after each bad slice.

68

Subspace identification takes more computation time than the FIR

identification, in particular for models with a large number of independent

and dependent variables.

This occurs because the subspace identification does a true multi-input

multi-output (MIMO) model identification that needs more intensive

computation than the multi-input single-output (MISO) FIR identification.

The benefit is that a true MIMO model has less uncertainty, and is

statistically more accurate.

The computation time has a cubical relation with the Maximum Order.

69

FIR ID / SS ID Summary

FIR algorithm is like curve-fitting (non-parametric) , Subspace

algorithm is finding parameter for pre-defined model structure.

Automatic model order determination- SS ID auto-determines the

optimal model order, to capture balanced high and low frequency

dynamics , without over-fitting; whereas in FIR ID model order is pre.

specified

based on TTSS and number of coefficients. The goodness of

data fitting is the only objective of FIR ID.

FIR is MISO, SS is truly MIMO.

FIR fails when S/N is low, SS performs better

Efficient Slicing SS ID is more efficient in term of slicing.

However, because of high degree of freedom that a FIR model can

offer when fitting a model to a dataset, the FIR models can easily

capture high order effects.

70

Model Robustness

71

Model Uncertainty

When we measure some physical quantity with an instrument and obtain a

numericalvalue,wewanttoknowhowclosethisvalueistothe truevalue.

The difference between the true value and the measured value is the error.

Unfortunately,thetrue valueisingeneralunknownandunknowable.Since

thisisthecase,theexacterrorisneverknown.Wecanonlyestimateerror.

72

Bode plot (or frequency response) of any dynamic system, is defined as the

magnitude (same as amplitude) of the sine wave observed in a specific CV, for a

constant frequency sine wave with a peak amplitude of 1.0 in the particular MV. As

the frequency of sine wave varies from the real slow (smaller TTSS) to very fast

(larger TTSS), the amplitude of the sine wave varies in the CV significantly.

For simple first order system

G(s) = Kp/(s+1)

Output will be : y(t) = A sin(t + )

Where A = f( A, ,, Kp)

73

74

75

Uncertainty Results

76

Uncertainty Results

77

Uncertainty Results

as dead time.

78

1) Used to monitor how accurate step test is going on

2) Used to find out when to slice out data

3) Retuning step size

4) Used to find out missing Feed forward variables

5) Used to take decision to windup step test

79

80

81

82

83

84

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