Hydroinformatics in Transition, UNESCO-IHE, May 2008

Whole System Modelling
- the Future of Hydroinformatics
Professor Ian Cluckie

Water and Environmental Management Research Centre (WEMRC)
University of Bristol

A General Scenario
Water Resources
Applications

Coupled
Ocean-Atmosphere
Models

Mesoscale
Models
E
P
Qs

 Ss
Ig

 Sg

SVATs

Sorooshian, HEPEX,
2004

Qg

Hydrologic/Routing
Models

- Sunday Times magazine
11.3.2007

The other
type of
flooding…
If the Greenland
ice sheet were to
melt it would
raise global sea
levels by around
7m. – Met Office
(2006)

Climate Change Impact

BOSCASTLE FLASH FLOOD

BOSCASTLE FLASH FLOOD

Configuration for NWP
• MM5 V3 comes with
mature code to deal with
mesoscale dynamics

Configured to run on
PC/LINUX
cluster
to
produce
5Km
weather
prediction over the UK
domain. (higher resolution
possible)

Potential to conduct
ensemble
run
with
powerful HPC facility

Domain 1

Domai n 2
Domain 3

Domain 4

Why Gridmatching?
Projection

mismatch for two
systems
• Areas covered
are not the same

MM5 Forecast

Nimrod Forecast

Nimrod Actuals

Changes in Height of 50 year
Storm Surge
• Sea levels set to rise
by 10 cm this century

Changes in storm
surges also important,
very
dependent
on
change in circulation
pattern

Changes
in
circulation
are
very
uncertain
• More detailed work
required
to
provide
reliable information

Climate Change Impact

Surge Ensemble Mean
(contours) and Spread

© Crown

Thames Tidal Barrier

The Storm from Hell! > 1000yr

54x54km

6x6k
m

18x18km

2x2km

Enhanced Ensemble
Water Levels at
Sheerness

Mike 11 simulation close to high tide at the barrier

Inundation Map for Extreme
Event

Source: FRMRC Co-location Workshop 2006

Inundation for Extreme Event

Source: FRMRC Co-location Workshop 2006

Weather Radar Animation 20 July

Photo by David Hughes http://news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07

Floods in Lower Severn
July 20, 2007

Tewkesbury
Sunday 22 July 2007
http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire

Picture source: http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk

Walham Switching
Station, near
Gloucester, serving
500,000 people.

Picture source: http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk

Ensemble Prediction
of Inundation Risk
and Uncertainty Arising
from Scour
(EPIRUS)
NERC FREE PROGRAM

Tide, Surge & Wave
Modelling Framework
Meteorological
Models

Tide, Surge
and Wave
Models

Surf Zone
Models

Continental Model
WAM
[Grid size ~ 12km]

Regional Model
POLCOMS
[Grid size ~1.8km]

Coastal Zone Model
COAST2D
[Grid size ~250m]

Extreme Surges in the Southern
North Sea: The Events of 1953
Could a larger
surge occur at
high water?
Port

HW

HAT 2015
wrt ODN

1953 surge
at local HW

Total
ODN

Sheerness

13.0
0

3.41

1.86

5.27

Woolwich

14.0
0

3.91

1.86

5.77

Height of Thames Barrier is 6.9 m aODN

Defra/EA, TE2100 Phase 2

‘The Great
Storm’
1987 MM5

Rainfall
and

20 July 2007 Storm – 10 MM5 ensembles + control

Local POL models for the Bristol
Channel and Severn Estuary

Tidal Current Modelling

Without Barrage

With Barrage

Mean Flood - Spring Tide
Source: Falconer, HRC, Cardiff

Coastal Zone Model –
COAST2D

Regional
Models

WPA option

COAST2D

Hydrodynamic
Module

Waves
IWP option

Currents

Morphological
Module

wave diffraction
wave refraction
bottom diffusion
wave breaking

wave reflection

Transport
Module

Surf Zone
Models

Source: Reeve, Plymouth

QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

Source: Reeve, Plymouth

SW Floods
October 2000

I Hope
You
Enjoyed
the Talk