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**For a Non-repairable item such as a light bulb, a
**

transistor, a rocket motor or an unmanned

spacecraft, reliability is the survival probability over

the item’s expected life, or for a period during its life,

when only one failure can occur.

During the item’s life the instantaneous probability of

the first and only failure is called the hazard rate.

Life values such as the mean life or mean time to

failure (MTTF) are other reliability characteristics that

can be used.

When a part fails in a non-repairable system, the

system fails (usually) and system reliability is,

1

therefore, a function of the time to the first part

**For items which are repaired when they fail, reliability
**

is the probability that failure will not occur in the

period of interest, when more than one failure can

occur. It can also be expressed as the failure rate.

However,

the

failure

rate

expresses

the

instantaneous probability of failure per unit time,

when several failures can occur in a time continuum.

Repairable

system

reliability

can

also

be

characterized by the mean time between failures

(MTBF), but only under the particular condition of a

constant failure rate.

We are also concerned with the availability of

repairable items, since repair takes time. Availability

is affected by the rate of occurrence of failures

2

(failure rate) and by maintenance time.

**Chapter-2 Reliability of Systems
**

GENERAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS RELATED FORMULAS

There are a number of formulas often used in conducting reliability

analysis. This section presents four of these formulas based on the

reliability function.

Failure density function: This is defined by dRt/dt=-f (t )...(2)

where: R(t) is the item reliability at time t, f(t) is the failure (or

probability) density function.

Hazard rate function: This is expressed by λ(t)=f(t)/R(t)…(3)

where: λ(t) is the item hazard rate or time dependent failure rate.

Substituting Equation (2) into Equation (3) yields

λ(t)= - 1/R(t)x d R(t)/dt …(4)

General reliability function: This can be obtained by using Equation

(4).

Thus, we have 1/R(t) x dR(t)=- λ (t)dt …..(5)

Integrating both sides of Equation (5) over the time interval [o, t], we get

R(t)

t

1

1 R ( t )dR (t ) 0 (t )dt...(6)

since at t = 0, R (t) = 1.

3

it can be used to obtain reliability of an item when its times to failure follow any known statistical distribution. Rayleigh. we get t R (t) e ( t ) dt 0 ... exponential..(7) 0 From Equation (7).(8) The above equation is the general expression for the reliability function. Weibull.GENERAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS RELATED FORMULAS Evaluating the left-hand side of Equation (6) yields t ln R ( t ) ( t )dt. for example. 4 . Thus.. and gamma distributions.

....(11) where: MTTF is the item mean time to failure.GENERAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS RELATED FORMULAS Mean time to failure: This can be obtained by using any of the following three formulas: MTTF E (t ) or MTTF or tf (t ) dt. s is the Laplace transform variable.. R(s) is the Laplace transform for the reliability function.. 5 is the failure rate .. R (t)..(10) 0 MTTF Limit R ( s ) s 0 1 ... E(t) is the expected value...(9) 0 R (t ) dt.....

MTBF should be confined to the case of repairable items with constant failure rate MTBF 1 is the failure rate 6 .GENERAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS RELATED FORMULAS Mean time between failure MTBF where MTBF stands for mean operating time between failures.

Discuss the need for reliability.Review Questions: • • • Define the following terms: Reliability. Human error. Downtime. Mission time. Draw the bathtub hazard rate curve and discuss its three important regions. Availability. Human reliability. Redundancy. Mean time to failure (exponential distribution. Useful life. 7 . Failure. Maintainability. Active redundancy.

• During the burn-in region/period. and wearout region. the product hazard rate (i.Bathtub Hazard Rate Curve • Bathtub hazard rate curve is a well known concept to represent failure behavior of various engineering items/products because the failure rate of these items changes with time..e. Its name stem from its shape resembling a bathtub as shown in Figure 1. time dependent failure rate) decreases and some of the reasons for the occurrence of failures during this period are poor 8 . These regions denote three phases that a newly manufactured product passes through during its life span. Three distinct regions of the curve are identified in the figure: burn-in region(early failures). useful life region.

higher random stress than expected. incorrect packaging. Wear due to friction. the product hazard rate remains constant and the failures occur randomly or unpredictably. inadequate debugging. low safety factors. the product hazard rate increases and some of the reasons for the occurrence of “wear-out region” failures are as 9 follows: Poor maintenance.incorrect installation and start-up human error.” “infant mortality region. Other names used for the “burn-in region” are “debugging region. abuse. inadequate processes. and poor handling methods. • During the wear-out region. . unavoidable conditions.” • During the useful life region. and human errors.” and “break-in region. Some of the reasons for their occurrence are undetectable defects.

10 .Figure 1: Bathtub hazard rate curve.

11 .

0002 failures per hour. Calculate the automobile reliability 0 R (time t ) toefailure. the railway engine’s expected time to failure is Example 2 : 5000 h.0004 failures/h. 1 mean time MTTF λ 0. • Assume that the failure rate of an tautomobile is ( t ) dt 0.994 12 . .0004)(15) 0. Calculate the engine’s 1 to failure.Example 1 : • Assume that a railway engine’s constant failure rate λ is 0...(8) for a 15-h mission and mean t e Using the given data in Equation e ( 0.0002 5000h Thus.

. 13 ...994 and 2.500 h.....0004 2.... inserting the specified data for the automobile failure rate into Equation MTTF..Similarly. 0 ( 0.. respectively. we get MTTF MTTF MTTF R (t ) dt.0004) t e dt ..(10) 0 t e dt.. the reliability and mean time to failure of the automobile are 0.500h Thus. 0 1 0.

Depending on the type in which the sub-system and elements are connected to constitute the given system. we will find that it is very difficult to analyze the system as a whole.Reliability Networks An engineering system can form various different configurations in conducting reliability analysis. The failure of the system as a whole can be attributed to the failure of one or more components of the system not functioning in the stipulated manner. 14 . the combinatorial rules of probability are applied to obtain the system reliability. If the reliability factor or the probability of failure of the system is to be determined.

.…. all units must operate normally for the systems success. for i=1.x3......xm 15 .m and P(x1.. • In other words. • The reliability of series systems network is expressed by: Rs P ( x1 x2 x3 . .x2. Rs=series system reliability or probability of success.2.3. • If any one of the units fails..x3. …..x2. • Diagram represents a system with m number of units acting in series.(1) where.xm)=probability of occurrence of events x1. xi=event denoting the success of unit i... the system fails..xm ).Series Network • Each block in the diagram represents a unit/component.

Series Network Diagram 16 .

. for i=1.P( x m ).. Ri=R) eq..2..95 in eq.. (4) becomes R s 1 m(1 R ). 17 ...( 4) by using i 1 For identical units (i.( 2) where P(x) is the occurrence probability of event x i.…. (3)..For independently failing units...(3) i 1 where Ri= is the unit i reliability..... for i=1. (1) becomes R s P( x1 )P( x 2 )P( x 3 ).3.....e.. m For Ri>0..m m i) in eq.(5) where. 1 (1 R i ).. system reliability Rs can be approximated R s eq...... eq. …..m... R is the unit reliability..3.2. (2) it becomes: If we let Ri=P(x R s R i .

Example 1:

• Assume an automobile has four independent and

identical tires. The tire reliability is 0.97. If any one of the

tries is punctured, the automobile cannot be driven.

Calculate the automobile reliability with respect to tires

by using eq. (3) and eq. (5). Comment on the end result.

R s (0.97)(0.97)(0.97)(0.97) 0.8853

Similarly, using the given data values in eq. (5) yields:

**• Both the above reliability results are very close. More
**

specifically, the system reliability value obtained through

using eq. (5) is lower than when the exact eq. (3) was

used.

18

Parallel Network

• This is a widely used network and it represents a system

with m units operating simultaneously. At least one unit

must operate normally for the system success.

• Each block in the diagram denotes a unit. The failure

probability of the parallel system/network is given by:

Fp P( x1 x 2 x 3 ......x m )

...(6)

**where: Fp=failure probability of the parallel system,
**

x i event denoting the failure of unit i; for i=1,2,3,…,m

=

P ( x1=probability

x 2 x 3 ......x m ) of occurrence of events

x1 x 2eq.

x 3(6)

......

xm

For independently failing units,

becomes

Fp P x1 x 2 x 3 ...... x m

...(7)

where:

P( x1 )is the probability of occurrence of failure event xi

, for i=1,2,3,…,m

19

Parallel Network Diagram

20

(7) it yields: ..... ….((10) 11) is rewritten to the following form: where: R is the unit reliability.... where: F is the unit failure probability.(9) i 1 where Rp is the parallel system reliability.Parallel Network m Fp Fi • If we let Fi=P(xi) in eq.(10 ) (9) becomes For pidentical units. 21 . Since R p R+F=1. m R 1 F ..m Subtracting eq...(8) i 1 where: Fi is the failure probability of unit i for i=1.2. (8) from unity yields the following expression mfor parallel network reliability: R p 1 Fp 1 Fi . eq.3. 1 (1 R ) meq.

The plots of eq. (11) shown in Figure 1 (parallel system reliability plots) clearly demonstrates that as the unit reliability and the number of redundant units increase. 22 . the parallel system reliability increases accordingly.

23 . we get • Thus.Example 2: • A computer has two independent and identical Central Processing units (CPUs) operating simultaneously. the computer reliability with respect to CPUs is 0.96. If the CPU reliability is 0. At least one CPU must operate normally for the computer to function successfully. calculate the computer reliability with respect to CPUs.96) 2 0.9984 • By substituting the specified data values into eq. (11).9984. R p 1 (1 0.

Series-Parallel Network This network represents a system having m number of subsystems in series.e.. each subsystem contains k number of active (i. Figure 2 (below) shows series-parallel network/system. operating) units in parallel. In turn. the system fails. If any one of the subsystems fails. 24 . Each block diagram in the diagram represents a unit.

m k For identical units. (13) into eq.(15) Where F is the unit failure probability..(13) j1 where Rpi is the reliability of the parallel subsystem i and Fij is the ith subsystem’s jth unit’s failure probability..(16) 25 .(14) i 1 j1 where Rsp is the series-parallel network/system reliability... (3) yields the following expression for series-parallel network/system reliability: R sp 1 Fij . (15) is rewritten to the following form: R sp 1 1 R k m .Figure 2 . eq. eq.. Substituting eq. (9) we write the following equation for ith subsystem’s reliability. Since R+F=1... (14) becomes (where R is the unit reliability) R sp 1 F k m . k R pi 1 Fij .For independent units. using eq..

as the number of units k increases.8. (16) are shown in Figure 3 (below). the system reliability decreases. On the other hand. the system reliability also increases. accordingly. the plots of eq. These plots indicate that as the number of subsystems m increase.For R=0. 26 .

the system reliability is 0.94. Calculate the system reliability.e. independent. k=2.9928.Example 3: • Assume that a system has four active. • By substituting 2 2 the given data values into R sp (16) 1 1yields: 0.9928 eq. 27 . Each unit’s reliability is 0. m=2). • Thus. and identical units forming a series-parallel configuration (i.94 0..

. k inRFigure R4 : . (3). we get the following equation for the i ’th subsystems reliability.. In turn.e. At least one subsystem must function normally for the system success..(18) (17) j1 where Fsi is the failure probability of the series subsystem 28 i. By subtracting eq..Parallel-Series Network • This network represents a system having m number of subsystems in parallel. . each subsystem contains k number of active (i. operating) units in series. k Fsi from 1 R siunity.. Each block in the diagram denotes a unit. 1 weR ijget.(17) si ij j1 where Rsi is the reliability of the series subsystem i and Rij is the ith subsystems jth units reliability. using eq. The network/system block diagram is shown in Figure 4. • For independent and identical units.

ure 4 Parallel-series network system. 29 .

(19) where Rps is the parallel-series network/system reliability..Using eq. 30 ..(20) where R is the unit reliability. (9) yields: m k R ps 1 1 Rij i 1 j 1 . (19) simplifies to R ps 1 1 R k m . (18) in eq. For identical units eq...

The plots show that as the number of units k increases. the plots the eq. 31 .For R=0. On the other hand. the system reliability also increases. the system/network reliability decreases accordingly.8. as the number of subsystems m increases. (20) are shown in Figure (below).

and identical units forming a parallel-series configuration (i. (20). Calculate the system reliability. if each units reliability is 0. 32 .9865. By substituting the given data into eq.9865 we get Thus.e. 2 2 R ps 1 1 0.Example 4: A system is composed of four active. k=m=2).94 0. independent..94. parallel-series system reliability is 0.

• Assume that an automobile has four independent and identical tires. independent.91. 33 .93.05. • An aircraft has four active.Review Questions: • • • • • Compare series and parallel networks. Compare series-parallel and parallel-series networks. The tire reliability is 0. If any one of the tires is punctured. Prove the reliability of a parallel-series network. if the engine probability of failure is 0. Calculate the automobile reliability with respect to tires. Calculate the reliability of the aircraft flying at 35000 ft. identical. Calculate the system reliability. Prove the reliability of a series and parallel network/system. At least two units must operate normally for the system success. At 35000 ft above ground at least one engine must operate normally for the aircraft to fly successfully. The reliability of each unit is 0. A system has three independent. and identical engines. the automobile cannot be driven. and active units.

Reliability allocation may simply be described as the process of assigning reliability requirements to individual parts or components to achieve the specified system reliability.Reliability Allocation The process by which the failure allowance for a system is allocated in some logical manner among its sub-systems and elements is termed as reliability allocation. 34 .

35 . • Lack of detailed information on many of the above factors in the early design stage.The reliability allocation problem is bit complex and not straight forward. • Component complexity. • Approaches available for accomplishing the given allocation task. Some of the associated reasons are as follows: • Role the component plays for the operation of the system. • The chargeable or assignable component reliability with the type of function to be conducted.

and systems. 36 manufacturing approaches. and cost. it forces the design engineer to seriously consider reliability equally with other design parameters such as performance. and it ensures satisfactory design. there are many benefits of the reliability allocation because it forces individuals involved in design and development to clearly understand and develop the relationships between reliabilities of components. subsystems. weight. and test .Nonetheless.

The basis for the similar familiar systems reliability allocation approach is the familiarity of the designer with similar systems or sub-systems.Two reliability allocation described as follows: methods are (1) HYBRID METHOD: This method is the result of combining two approaches: similar familiar systems and factors of influence. In addition. failure data collected on similar systems from various sources can also be used during the allocation process. The resulting method incorporates benefits of these two methods. 37 The main drawback of this approach is to .

some auxiliary instrument failure in an aircraft may not be as critical as the engine failure. In using the above influence factors. humidity. • State-of-the-Art: This factor takes into consideration the advancement in the state-of-the-art for a specific item. For example.The factors of influence method is based upon the following factors that are considered to effect the system reliability: • Complexity/Time: The complexity relates to the number of subsystem parts and the time to the relative operating time of the item during the entire system functional period. • Environment: This factor takes into consideration the susceptibility or exposure of items to environmental conditions such as temperature. • Failure criticality: This factor considers the criticality of the item failure on the system. each item is rated with respect to each of these influence factors38 by . and vibration.

If the system required failure rate is λsr. • Time to component failure is exponentially distributed.(1.. for i=1. Thus.(2) FAILURE RATE AllOCATION METHOD: This method is concerned with allocating failure rates to system components when the system required failure rate is known. λs is the system failure rate. 2. 3. then allocation 39 component failure rate such that: . The following assumptions are associated with this method: • System components form a series configuration. the system failure rate is n s i .n. λi is the failure rate of system component I. • System components fail independently..3) i 1 where: n is the number of components in the system. ….

7) is subject to the condition that 40 the equality holds in eq.5) It isi 1to be noted that θi denotes the relative failure vulnerability of the component i and n i 1 .. Estimate the component failure rates λi for i=1.. …. ….7) It must be remembered that eq.n …(1.n. for i=1.(1.(1. 2. .. The following steps are associated with this method: 1.4) i 1 where: λ*i is the failure rate allocated to component i. 2.(1. θi . (1. (1.. n . for i 1.4). 3.. 2. using the past data.….6) i 1 3.. Calculate the relative weight.n * i sr . of component i using the preceding step failure rate data and the following equation: i i n i . 2. Allocate failure rate to component i using the following relationship: λ*i = θi λsr .. 3..2.n.. for i=1..

λ2=0.0005) 0. and 5 are λ1=0.0004) (0.0006 failures/h.1333. θ2=(0. λ4=0.0015 failures / h i 1 Thus. λ3=0.0003÷0.5) and calculated and given values.0005÷0. (1. 3.0001) (0. the given data.0001 failures/h.0015)=0. θ4=(0.2667.0004÷0.0015)=0. θ5=(0.0002 failures/h. we get the system failure rate to five following estimated military system failure rate: 5 λ s λ i (0.3) and subsystems. The estimated failure rates from past experience for subsystems 1. 2.0004 failures/h.. Allocate the specified Answer: Using eq.0015)=0. (1. 4.2. 3.. utilizing eq. we get the following relative weights for subsystems 1.0001÷0. and λ5=0.0002÷0. 2..composed of five independent subsystems in series and its specified failure rate is 0. 4.0002) (0. θ3=(0.3333 41 .0005 failures/h.0003) (0. and 5.0015)=0.0667. respectively.0015)=0.0003 failures/h. respectively: θ1=(0.

3. 4.00012 failures/h λ*4=θ4 λsr =(0.2667)(0.00004 failures/h λ*2=θ2 λsr =(0. are as follows: λ*1=θ1 λsr =(0.Using eq.333)(0.0006) =0.7) and calculated and given values. the subsystems 1.1333)(0. and 5 allocated failure rates.0006) =0.00019 failures/h 42 .0006) =0.00007 failures/h λ*3=θ3 λsr =(0.0006) =0. respectively.00016 failures/h λ*5=θ5 λsr =(0. (1. 2.2)(0.0667)(0.0006) =0.

Subsystems 1. 0. and 0. Allocate the specified system failure rate to seven subsystems. 0.002 failures/h. 4.009 failures/h.005 failures/h. 2.006 failures/h.SAME LIKE ABOVE PROBLEM Problem: An aerospace system is made up of seven independent subsystems in series and it specified failure rate 0. and 7 estimated failure rates from previous experience are 0. 0. 6. 0. 3.001 failures/h.007 failures/h.003 failures/h. 5. respectively. 0. 43 .004 failures/h.

the specific . the type 44 of project under consideration. • The use of these methods for a particular application depends on various factors including the specified requirement. Over the years. Markov method. network reduction method. • Some examples of these methods and techniques are fault tree analysis (FTA). failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA).Reliability Evaluation Methods • Introduction: Reliability evaluation is an important activity for ensuring the reliability of engineering products. many reliability evaluation methods and techniques have been developed. It normally begins right from the conceptual design stage of products with specified reliability. and decomposition method.

in the real world application the network reduction method is probably the easiest to use and it does not really require any specific experience from its users. Different types of reliability evaluation methods are discussed below. FMEA and FTA are relatively more demanding to perform and require considerable experience of analysts in the area of design. In contrast.The ease of use and the requirement of specific experience of users (analysts) may vary from one method to another. For example. .

Network Reduction Method • • • This is probably the simplest method for evaluating the reliability of systems composed of independent series and parallel subsystems. and C of the network as shown in Figure 1(i). The bridge configurations or subsystems (if any) in the system can be converted to series and parallel equivalents by using delta-star conversions or the decomposition method. 3. First we have identified subsystems A. 2. for j = 1. Determine the network reliability by using the network reduction method. . It sequentially reduces the parallel and series subsystems to equivalent hypothetical single units until the complete system itself becomes a single hypothetical unit.. The main advantage of this approach is that it is easy to understand and apply. Each block in the figure denotes a unit. The subsystem A has 46 . The reliability R J of unit j. .. B. The method is demonstrated through the following example: Example 1: A network representing an engineering system with independent units is shown in Figure (1). 7 is given.

8369 (Figure 1(v)). this network is made up of two parallel subsystems B and C acting in series.8369 where Rn is the reliability of the whole network shown in Figure 1 (i). 47 . subsystem B has been reduced to a single hypothetical unit having reliability 0.Network Reduction Method… • The reduced network is shown in Figure 1(ii).7)(1-0. representing subsystem B.8)(10.842)=0. In similar manner to subsystem B. Thus. the Figure 1(i) network was reduced to a single hypothetical unit having reliability 0.842 Similarly.994. in series. by using the network reduction method. This network contains subsystem C and a hypothetical unit. we reduce subsystem B to a single hypothetical unit as follows: RB(reliability of subsystem B)=1-(1-R 5)(1-R6)(1-R7)=1-(1-0.8)=0. All in all. which is the whole network's reliability.21)(1-0. we reduce subsystem C to a single hypothetical unit: RC(reliability of subsystem C)=1-(1-R A)(1-R4)=1-(1-0.9)=0. the reduced network is shown in Figure 1(iv). in series. This network is composed of two hypothetical units. The reliability of this network is given by Rn=RCRC=(0.994 Thus. The reduced network is shown in Figure 1(iii). Now.994)(0. representing subsystems B and C.

(iii) reduced network. (iv) reduced network.Figure 1: Diagrammatic steps of the network reduction: (i) original network. (ii) reduced network. 48 . (v) single hypothetical unit.

The method begins by first selecting the key element or unit to be used to decompose a given network/system. it is completely removed from the system or network). the method assumes that the key element/unit.e. First. It decomposes complex systems into simpler subsystems by applying the conditional probability measures of subsystems. Under this scenario. the overall system/network reliability is given by Rs=P(x)P(system good/x good)+P( )P(system good/ x fails) X …(10) 49 . The poor choice of this key element leads to poor efficiency of computing system reliability.e. 100% reliable) and then it assumes that the key element is 100% unreliable (i. say x. the past experience usually plays an instrumental role in selecting the right key element.. is replaced by another element that never fails (i.Decomposition Method This method is used to evaluate reliability of complex systems.. Nonetheless.

P(system good/ x fails)=reliability of the system when x is 100% unreliable P(x)=reliability of the key element x P( )=unreliability of the key element x X Similarly. the overall system/network unreliability is expressed by: X URs=P(x)P(system fails/x good)+P( )P(system fails/x fails) where: URs=system unreliability P(system fails/ x good)=unreliability of the system when x is 100% reliable P(system fails/x fails)=unreliability of the system when x is 100% unreliable 50 .Decomposition Method… where: Rs=system reliability P(system good/x good)=reliability of the system when x is 100% reliable.

say x.Example5: A five independent unit bridge network is shown in Figure 6.2. • First of all. 51 . Each block in the diagram denotes a unit and each unit’s reliability is denoted by R i.5. thus.3.…. by replacing the key element in Figure 6 with 100% reliable unit and then with 100% unreliable unit results in Figure 7(a) and Figure 7(b) diagrams. Develop an expression for the network by utilizing the decomposition method. for i=1. in this example we identify the Figure 6 unit with reliability R3 as our key element. respectively.

we get the following reliability expression for Figure 7(b): Rps=1-(1-R1R2)(1-R4R5) …...e..(14) 52 . by utilizing the network reduction approach. R1=R2=R4=R5=R) eq. (12) becomes Rsp=[1-(1-R)2]2=(2R-R2)2 …. Using the network reduction method.. Similarly.e.(12) where: Rsp is the series=parallel network reliability (i.Figure 7: Reduced networks of Figure 6 diagram: (a) For a 100% reliable key element. we obtain the following reliability expression for Figure 7(a): Rsp=[1-(1-R1)(1-R4)][1-(1-R2)(1-R5)] …. (b) For 100% unreliable key element..(13) where: R is the unit reliability. the system reliability when the key element is 100% reliable) For identical units (i.

respectively. (12). (16). (15). (17) become: P(x)=R …(18) and P( X )=(1-R) …(19) Substituting eq. eq. (10). X )=1-R3…(17) P(x)=R3 …(16) and P( For R3=R. and eq. eq. (18) and eq..(15) The reliability and unreliability respectively. eq. (17) into eq.. 53 . eq. are given by: of the key element x. (13). (14).where: Rps is the parallel-series network reliability (i.. For identical units. eq. (16) and eq. we get: Rs=R(2R-R2)2+(1-R)(2R2-R4)=2R2+2R3-5R4+2R5 …(21) Thus. eq. (14) becomes: Rps=1-(1-R)2=2R2-R4 . inserting eq. (10) yields: Rs=R3[1-(1-R1)(1-R4)][1-(1-R2)(1-R5)]+(1-R3)[1-(1-R1R2) (1-R4R5)]…(20) For identical units. (19) into eq. eq. (20) and eq.e. the system reliability when the key element is 100% unreliable). (21) are reliability expressions for Figure 6 network with non-identical and identical units.

but for practical purposes it should be neglected. However. • Once a bridge network is transformed to its equivalent parallel and series form.) the respective unit reliability. and 3 denote nodes.Delta-Star Method • This is the simplest and very practical approach to evaluate reliability of bridge networks.2. the blocks the units. • In Figure 8. it is assumed that three units of a system with reliabilities R12. 2. • Using Equations (3) and (9) and Figure 8. The delta-star method can easily handle networks containing more than one bridge configurations. respectively: 54 . and R3. the transformation process introduces a small error in the end result. The numbers 1. we write down the following equivalent reliability equations for network reliability between nodes 1. R13. it can be applied to bridge networks composed of devices having two mutually exclusive failure modes. and R23 form the delta configuration and its star equivalent configuration units' reliabilities are R1. and I. and R (. This technique transforms a bridge network to its equivalent series and parallel form. 2. 3. the network reduction approach can be applied to obtain network reliability. • Figure 8 shows delta to star equivalent reliability diagram. R2. Furthermore. 3.

55 . Delta to star equivalent reliability diagram.Figure 8.

. we get AC R1 B .(57) 56 . (49) through (51)...(52) where: A=1-(1-R12)(1-R13R23) …(53) B=1-(1-R23)(1-R12R13) …(54) C=1-(1-R13)(1-R12R23) …(55) R2 AB C ..(56) R3 BC A ...R1R2=1-(1-R12)(1-R13R23)…(49) R2R3=1-(1-R23)(1-R12R13) …(50) R1R3=1-(1-R13)(1-R12R23) …(51) Solving eqs.

c. with Figure 9. A five unit bridge specified unit reliabilities. b. Calculate the network reliability by using the delta-star method and also use the specified data in eq.Example: A five independent unit bridge network with specified unit reliability Ri. (3) and (9) to obtain the bridge network Compare bothnetwork results. 57 . for i=a. d. and e is shown in Figure 9.reliability.

for practical purposes the delta-star approach is quite effective 58 .9633 Using the above results.In Figure 9 nodes labeled 1. and 3 denote delta configurations.9126 and 0. All in all.9114 Both the reliability results are basically same. is Rbr=R3[1-(1-R1Rd )(1-R2Re)]=0. (21). we get Rbr=2(0. we get the following star equivalent reliabilities: AC R1 0. The reliability of Figure 10 network. Using eqs. (56) and (57) and the given data.9114.8)4+2(0. R br.8)2=0.8)]=0.8)5-5(0.8)(0.8)[1-(0. 0.9126 By substituting the given data into eq.9633 B where: A=B=C=1-(1-0. i..9280 R2=0. the equivalent network to Figure 9 bridge network is shown in Figure 10. (52).9633 and R3=0. 2.8)3+2(0.e.

Figure 10. network to bridge 59 . Equivalent configuration of Figure 9.

Similar to above problem • Calculate the reliability of the network using the delta-star Assume that each block in the figure unit with reliability 0. Figure A approach.8 and all independently. denotes a units fail Figure A 60 .

(58) i 1 where: λE is the equipment failure rate.. (Note: From table you will get λg and Fq values) 61 . m is the number of different generic part/component classifications in the equipment under consideration.Parts Count Method This is a very practically inclined method used during bid proposal and early design phases to estimate equipment failure rate. Under single use environment. and equipment use environment.. part quality levels. λg is the generic failure rate of generic part I expressed in failure/106h. the equipment failure rate can be estimated by using the following equation: λ E Q i λ g Fq i m . expressed in failure/10 6h. Qi is the quantity of generic part i. The information required to use this method includes generic part types and quantities. Fq is the quality factor of generic part i.

in the case of electronic parts. The failure rates are added to obtain total equipment failure rate. An equation of the following form is used to estimate failure rates of many electronic parts: λp=λbθeθq……(59) where: λp is the part failure rate. This number provides a better picture of the actual failure rate of the equipment under consideration than the one obtained through using eq. 62 .Failure rate estimation of an electronic part: As the design matures. more information becomes available. θq is the factor that accounts for part quality level. the failure rates of equipment components are estimated. the MIL-HDBK-217 is used to estimate the failure rate of electronic parts. Usually. (58). λb is the base failure rate and is normally defined by a model relating the influence of temperature and electrical stresses on the part under consideration. θe is the factor that accounts for the influence of environment.

(60) where: C is a constant E is the activation energy for the process. 63 . T is the absolute temperature..For many electronic parts. is calculated by using the following equation: E λ b C exp kT . the base failure rate.. λb. K is the Boltzmann’s constant.

where λ is the transition rate (e. (λΔt) (λΔt)→0). constant failure or repair rate of an item) from one system state to another.g. The method is named after a Russian mathematician.g. Markov method is quite useful to model systems with dependent failure and repair modes and is based on the following assumptions: The probability of transition from one system state to another in the finite time interval Δt is given by λΔt. The probability of more than one transition in time interval Δt from one state to the next state is negligible (e. 64 The occurrences are independent of each other. Andrei Andreyevich Markov (1856-1922)..Markov Method • • • • This is a widely used method in industry to perform various types of reliability analysis. ..

we write down the following equations for the Figure 5 diagram for state 0 and state 1. 65 .: P0(t+Δt) = P0(t)(1-λΔt) …. i=0 (working normally) i=1 (failed). i=1 (failed). (1-λΔt)=probability of no failure in time interval Δt when the system is in state 0. respectively. Pi(t)=probability that at time t the system is in state i.(4) where: Pi(t+Δt)=probability that at time (t+Δt) the system is in state i.With the aid of Markov method.(3) and P1(t+Δt) = P1(t)+(λΔt)P0(t)…. λ=system constant failure rate. λΔt=probability of system failure in finite time interval Δt. i=0 (working normally).

In the limiting case.. we get P0(t)=Rs(t)=e –λt …(7) P1(t)=URs(t)=(1-e –λt ) …(8) 66 . (6). (3) and eq... P0(0)=1 and P1(0)=0 Solving eq.. (4) become Limit t 0 P0 ( t t ) P0 ( t ) dP0 ( t ) λP0 t t dt .(5) and Limit t 0 P1 ( t t ) P1 ( t ) dP1 ( t ) P1t t dt .(6) At time t=0. eq. (5) and eq.

The system mean time to failure is given by: 1 MTTFs R s ( t )dt e dt λ 0 0 λt . respectively. Thus.Figure 5. 67 . unreliability.. eq. and eq. (8). System state space diagram. where Rs(t) is the system reliability at time t and UR s (t) is the system unreliability at time t. (7). and mean time to failure are given by eq. (9).. expressions for system reliability.(9) where MTTFs is the system mean time to failure.

68 . Allocate the specified system failure rate to seven subsystems.005 failures/h. 6. Figure A • An aerospace system is made up of seven independent subsystems in series and it specified failure rate 0. 0. and 7 estimated failure rates from previous experience are 0. 3. 0. 0. 5.007 failures/h. Subsystems 1. 0. 0. respectively.004 failures/h.Review Questions: • Calculate the reliability of the Figure A network using the deltastar approach.002 failures/h.001 failures/h. 2.8 and all units fail independently. 4.003 failures/h.009 failures/h. Assume that each block in the figure denotes a unit with reliability 0. and 0.006 failures/h.

69 .

• A bridge network is composed of five independent and identical units. Similar to above problem 70 . The constant failure rate of a unit is 0.0005 failures/h. Calculate the network reliability for a 300-h mission and mean time to failure.

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