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CASE STUDY FINANCIAL PLANNING WITH SIMULATION

Aprila Wiguna

2401150016

CASE STUDY FINANCIAL PLANNING WITH SIMULATION Aprila Wiguna 2401150016
CASE STUDY FINANCIAL PLANNING WITH SIMULATION Aprila Wiguna 2401150016

INFORMASI

Creative Infographic

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AWAL

Current Asset $ 1.000.000

Current age 65

Desired retirement salary $ 60.00

Expected ROI 10%

Life expectancy is age 95

Expected ROI 10%

INFORMASI Creative Infographic Put a relevant subtitle in this line AWAL Current Asset $ 1.000.000 Current

Rencana

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Return

Beginning

Withdraw

Ending

Year

(%)

balance

al

balance

 
  • 1 10%

1,000,000 60,000.00 1,034,000.00

 
  • 2 10%

1,034,000 61,800.00 1,069,420.00

 
  • 3 10%

1,069,420 63,654.00 1,106,342.60

 
  • 4 1,106,343 65,563.62 1,144,856.88

10%

 
  • 5 1,144,857 67,530.53 1,185,058.98

10%

 
  • 6 1,185,059 69,556.44 1,227,052.79

10%

 
  • 7 1,227,053 71,643.14 1,270,950.62

10%

 
  • 8 1,270,951 73,792.43 1,316,874.01

10%

 
  • 9 1,316,874 76,006.20 1,364,954.58

10%

  • 10 1,364,955 78,286.39 1,415,335.01

10%

  • 11 1,415,335 80,634.98 1,468,170.03

10%

  • 12 1,468,170 83,054.03 1,523,627.60

10%

  • 13 1,523,628 85,545.65 1,581,890.14

10%

  • 14 1,581,890 88,112.02 1,643,155.93

10%

  • 15 1,643,156 90,755.38 1,707,640.60

10%

  • 16 1,707,641 93,478.04 1,775,578.81

10%

  • 17 1,775,579 96,282.39 1,847,226.07

10%

  • 18 1,847,226 99,170.86 1,922,860.73

10%

 

102,145.9

  • 19 10%

1,922,861

8

2,002,786.22

 

105,210.3

  • 20 10%

2,002,786

6

2,087,333.45

 

108,366.6

  • 21 10%

2,087,333

7

2,176,863.45

 

111,617.6

  • 22 10%

2,176,863

7

2,271,770.35

 

114,966.2

  • 23 10%

2,271,770

0

2,372,484.56

 

118,415.1

  • 24 10%

2,372,485

9

2,479,476.31

 

121,967.6

  • 25 10%

2,479,476

5

2,593,259.53

 

125,626.6

deterministic

  • Jika henry wafat pada usia 95 tah

  • Inflasi 3%

  • Withdrawal awal 60.000 dan

meningkat 3% tiap tahun

  • Rata-rata stock market 10%

  • Portofolio $ 3.285.670,46

Rencana Put a relevant subtitle in this line Return Beginning Withdraw Ending Year (%) balance al

Actual Return

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Return

Year

(%)

 
  • 1 -20%

 
  • 2 -10%

 
  • 3 9%

 
  • 4 8%

 
  • 5 12%

 
  • 6 -10%

 
  • 7 -2%

 
  • 8 25%

 
  • 9 27%

10

61%

Average

10%

Return aktual berbeda setiap

Tahun dalam 10 tahun

Rata-rata dari return dalam

10 tahun adala 10%

Actual Return Put a relevant subtitle in this line Return Year (%) 1 -20% 2 -10%

Portofolio Balance

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Analysis

Return

(%)

Beginning

balance

Withdraw

al

Ending

balance

-20%

1,000,000

60,000.0

0

752,000.00

   

61,800.0

 

-10%

752,000

0

621,180.00

   

63,654.0

 

9%

621,180

0

607,703.34

   

65,563.6

 

8%

607,703

2

585,510.90

   

67,530.5

 

12%

585,511

3

580,138.01

   

69,556.4

 

-10%

580,138

4

459,523.41

   

71,643.1

 

-2%

459,523

4

380,122.67

   

73,792.4

 

25%

380,123

3

382,912.80

   

76,006.2

 

27%

382,913

0

389,771.37

   

78,286.3

 

61%

389,771

9

501,490.82

Rata-rata return 10%

Portofolio balance di 10 tahun

Adalah $501.490,82

Withdrawal 60.000 pada setiap tahun

Dan meningkat 3% tahunan

Portofolio Balance Put a relevant subtitle in this line Analysis Return (%) Beginning balance Withdraw al

Reversed Return

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Return

Beginning

Withdraw

Ending

(%)

balance

al

balance

   

60,000.0

1,513,400.0

61%

1,000,000

0

0

   

61,800.0

1,843,532.0

27%

1,513,400

0

0

   

63,654.0

2,224,847.5

25%

1,843,532

0

0

   

65,563.6

2,116,098.2

-2%

2,224,848

2

0

   

67,530.5

1,843,710.9

-10%

2,116,098

3

1

   

69,556.4

1,987,053.0

12%

1,843,711

4

0

   

71,643.1

2,068,642.6

8%

1,987,053

4

5

   

73,792.4

2,174,386.7

9%

2,068,643

3

4

   

76,006.2

1,888,542.4

-10%

2,174,387

0

8

   

78,286.3

1,448,204.8

-20%

1,888,542

9

7

Rata-rata return 10%

Portofolio balance di 10 tahun

Adalah $1.448.207.87

Withdrawal 60.000 pada setiap tahun

Dan meningkat 3% tahunan

Reversed Return Put a relevant subtitle in this line Return Beginning Withdraw Ending (%) balance al

Return analysis tanpa withdrawals

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Return

Beginning

Withdraw Ending

(%)

balance

al

balance

-20%

1,000,000

800,000.00

-10%

800,000

720,000.00

9%

720,000

784,800.00

8%

784,800

847,584.00

12%

847,584

949,294.08

-10%

949,294

854,364.67

-2%

854,365

837,277.38

     

1,046,596.7

25%

837,277

2

     

1,329,177.8

27%

1,046,597

4

     

2,139,976.3

61%

1,329,178

2

Simulasi dimana Henry tidak pernah meng

Withdrawal dari portofolionya.

Return analysis tanpa withdrawals Put a relevant subtitle in this line Return Beginning Withdraw Ending (%)

Resersed return analysis without Withrawals

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Return

Beginning

Withdra

Ending

Year

(%)

balance

wal

balance

       

1,610,000.

  • 1 61%

1,000,000

00

       

2,044,700.

  • 2 27%

1,610,000

00

       

2,555,875.

  • 3 25%

2,044,700

00

       

2,504,757.

  • 4 -2%

2,555,875

50

       

2,254,281.

  • 5 -10%

2,504,758

75

       

2,524,795.

  • 6 12%

2,254,282

56

Simulasi bahwa henry

Tidak pernah mengambil dari

portofolionya

dan revers return

Resersed return analysis without Withrawals Put a relevant subtitle in this line Return Beginning Withdra Ending

Portofolio

Creative Infographic

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Survival

Expected Return 10%

Standar Deviation 17,5%

Henry has 64% chance that his Portofolio will last 30 years if withdraw $ 60.000

The chance would increase to 70 Decreasing withdrawal by $50.00

$55.000

Portofolio Creative Infographic Put a relevant subtitle in this line Survival Expected Return 10% Standar Deviation

Simulation

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Simulation Put a relevant subtitle in this line

Grafik simulasi ending balance henry tirement

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25,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
25,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
15,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
5,000,000.00
0.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
  • Ending Balance 1

  • Ending Balance 2

  • Ending Balance 3

  • Ending Balance 4

Inflasi 3%

SD 4.3%

Rata-rata Return 10

Grafik simulasi ending balance henry tirement Put a relevant subtitle in this line 25,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 15,000,000.00
THANK YOU

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THANK YOU