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Waiting Line Models for

Service Improvement
Model Antrian untuk
Perbaikan Pelayanan

Elements Of
Waiting Line Analysis

Queue
a single waiting line

Waiting line system


arrivals
servers
waiting line structures

Calling population

source of customers
an infinite population assumes such a large
number of customers that it is always possible
for one more customer to arrive to be served
a finite population consists of a countable
number of potential customers

Arrival rate,

frequency of customer arrivals to system


typically follows Poisson distribution

Service time

often follows negative exponential distribution

average service rate =

Arrival rate must be less than service rate


or system never clears out

Components Of A Queuing
System
Source of
customers
Arrivals

Waiting Line
or queue

Server

Served
customers

Queue Discipline And Length

Queue discipline

order in which customers are served


first come, first served is most common

Length can be infinite or finite

infinite is most common


finite is limited by some physical
structure

Basic Waiting Line Structures

Channels are the number of parallel servers

Phases denote number of sequential


servers the customer must go through

Single-Channel Structures
Single-channel, single-phase
Waiting line

Server

Single-channel, multiple phases


Waiting line

Servers

Multi-Channel Structures
Multiple-channel, single phase

Waiting line
Servers

Multiple-channel, multiple-phase
Waiting line
Servers

Operating Characteristics

The mathematics of queuing theory does not


provide optimal or best solutions

Instead, operating characteristics are


computed that describe system performance

Steady state provides the average value of


performance characteristics that the system
will reach after a long time

Operating Characteristics
Notation

Description

Average number of customers in the system


(waiting and being served)

Lq

Average number of customers in the waiting line

Average time a customer spends in the system


(waiting and being served)

Wq

Average time a customer spends waiting in line

P0

Probability of no (zero) customers in the system

Pn

Probability of n customers in the system

Utilization rate; the proportion of time the


system is in use

Expected costs

Cost Relationship In Waiting Line


Analysis
Total cost

Service
cost
Waiting Costs

Level of service

Waiting Line Analysis


And Quality

Traditional view - the level of service


should coincide with the minimum point on
the total cost curve

TQM view - absolute quality service is the


most cost-effective in the long run

Single-Channel, Single-Phase
Models
All assume Poisson arrival rate
Variations

exponential service times


general (or unknown) distribution of service times
constant service times
exponential service times with finite queue length
exponential service times with finite calling
population

Basic Single-Server Model

Assumptions:

Poisson arrival rate


exponential service times
first-come, first-served queue discipline
infinite queue length
infinite calling population

= mean arrival rate


= mean service rate

Formulas for Single-Server Model


Probability that no customers P0 =
are in system
Probability of exactly n
customers in system

Pn =
=

Average number of
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

(1 -

()
n
( )

L =

Lq =

P0
(1 -

Average time customer


spends in system

W =

Average time customer


spends in queue

Wq =

Probability that server


is busy, utilization factor

Probability that server is


idle & customer can be served

= = (1 -

) = P0

Single-Server Example
Given: = 24 per hour, = 30 customers per hour
Probability that no customers
are in system

Average number of
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

P0 =

(1 -

) = 1 - (24/30) = 0.20

L =

= 24/(30-24) = 4

Lq =

= 242/30(30-24) = 3.2


= 1(30-24) = 0.167 hr = 10 min
W =

Average time customer


spends in system
Average time customer
spends in queue

Wq =

Probability that server


is busy, utilization factor
Probability that server is
idle & customer can be served

= 24/30(30-24) = 0.133 hr = 8 min

=
I=

= 24/30 = 0.80

= 1 - 0.80 = 0.20

Waiting Line Cost Analysis


Management wants to test two alternatives to
reduce customer waiting time:
1. Hire another employee to pack up
purchases
2. Open another checkout counter

Alternative 1

Extra employee costs $150 / week


Each one-minute reduction in customer waiting time avoids
$75 in lost sales
Extra employee will increase service rate to 40 customers per
hour
Recompute operating characteristics
Wq = 0.038 hours = 2.25 minutes, originally was 8 minutes
8.00 - 2.25 = 5.75 minutes
5.75 x $75/minute/week = $431.25 per week
New employee saves $431.25 - 150.00 = $281.25 / week

Alternative II

New counter costs $6000 plus $200 per week for checker
Customers divide themselves between two checkout lines
Arrival rate is reduced from = 24 to = 12
Service rate for each checker is = 30
Recompute operating characteristics
Wq = 0.022 hours = 1.33 minutes, originally was 8 minutes
8.00 - 1.33 = 6.67 minutes
6.67 x $75/minute/week = $500.00/wk - 200.00 = $300/wk
Counter is paid off in 6000/300 = 20 weeks
Counter saves $300/wk; choose alternative II

Constant Service Times

Constant service times occur with


machinery and automated equipment

Constant service times are a special


case of the single-server model with
general or undefined service times

Operating Characteristics For


Constant Service Times
Probability that no customers
are in system
Average number of
customers in queue

P0 = (1 -

Lq =

Average number of
customers in system

L = Lq +

Average time customer


spends in queue

Lq
Wq =

Average time customer


spends in system

W = Wq +

Probability that server


is busy, utilization factor

When service time is


constant and = 0,
formula can be simplified

Lq =

Constant Service Time Example

Automated car wash with service time = 4.5 min


Cars arrive at rate = 10/hour (Poisson)
= 60/4.5 = 13.3/hour
Lq =

Lq
Wq =

(10)2
2(13.3)(13.3-10)

= 1.14 cars waiting

=1.14/10 = .114 hour or 6.84 minutes

Finite Queue Length

A physical limit exists on length of queue


M = maximum number in queue
Service rate does not have to exceed arrival rate to
obtain steady-state conditions ()

Probability that no
customers are in system
Probability of exactly n
customers in system
Average number of
customers in system

P0 =
Pn =
L =

M
(P0 )

()

for n M
(M + 1() M + 1
1 - ( )M+1

Let PM = probability a customer will not join the system

Average number of
customers in queue

Lq =

(1- PM)

Average time customer


spends in system

W =

(1 - PM)

Average time customer


spends in queue

Wq =

Finite Queue Example


Quick Lube has waiting space for only 3 cars
= 20, = 30, M = 4 cars (1 in service + 3 waiting)
Probability that no
cars are in system
Probability of exactly
n cars in system
Average number of
cars in system

P0 =

Pm = (P0 )
L =
=

n=M

()

20/30
1 -20/30

1 - 20/30
20/30
= (0.38)

20

( 30 )

= 0.38
4

= 0.076

(M + 1() M + 1
1 - ( )M+1
(5(20/30) 5
1 - (20/30)

= 1.24

Average number of
cars in queue

Average time car


spends in system
Average time car
spends in queue

(1- PM)

20(1-0.076)
= 1.24 = 0.62
30

Lq = L
L
W =

(1 - PM)

1.24
20 (1-0.076)

= 0.67 hours
= 4.03 min

Wq = W

= 0.067 -

30

= 0.033 hours
= 2.03 min

Finite Calling Population

Arrivals originate from a finite (countable) population


N = population size

Probability that no
P0 =
customers are in system

N!

n = 0 (N - n)!

Probability of exactly n
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

Pn =

Lq =

N!

()

(N - n)!

P0

where n = 1, 2, ..., N

(1- P0)

Average number of
customers in system

Average time customer


spends in queue

Average time customer


spends in system

L =

Wq =

W =

Lq + (1- P0)

Lq
(N - L)

Wq +

Finite Calling Popn Example

20 machines which operate an average of 200 hrs


before breaking down
= 1/200 hr = 0.005/hr
Mean repair time = 3.6 hrs
= 1/3.6 hr = 0.2778/hr

Probability that no
P0 =
machines are in system

1
N

N!

n = 0 (N - n)!

1
20

20!

n = 0 (20 - n)!

= 0.652
(0.005/0.2778)n

Average number of
machines in queue

Lq = N

= 20
Average number of
machines in system

(1- P0)

0.005 + 0.2778
0.005

(1- 0.652) = 0.169

L = Lq + (1-P0) = 0.169 + (1-0.62) = 0.520

Average time machine


Wq =
spends in queue

Average time machine


spends in system

0.169

Lq
(N - L)

W = Wq +

(20 - 0.520) 0.005

= 1.74 +

1
0.278

= 1.74

= 5.33 hrs

Multiple-Channel, Single-Phase Models

Two or more independent servers serve a single


waiting line

Poisson arrivals, exponential service, infinite calling


population

s>
P0 =

n= 0

n=s-1

1
n!

()

]+

1
s!

()(

s
s -

Probability of exactly n
customers in system

Pn =

Pn =

Probability an arriving
customer must wait

Average number of
customers in system

Pw =

L =

()

n!

()

1
s! s

n-s

for n > s

P0,

for n <= s

() (

s!

P0,

s
s -

(s - 1 ! (s -

P0 +

)P

()

Average time customer


spends in system

Average number of
customers in queue

Average time customer


spends in queue

W =

Lq =

Wq =

Lq

Utilization factor

/s

Multiple-Server Example
Customer service area
= 10 customers/area
= 4 customers/hour per service rep
s = (3)(4) = 12
P0 =

1
0!

n= 0

n=s-1

0 1
+
1!

( )

1
n!

()

]+

1
s!

()(

s
s -

1
1 1
+

2!

( )

( )

] + ( )(
1
3!

3 3(4)
3(4)-10

= 0.045

Average number of
customers in system

L=

Average time customer


spends in system

W =

P0 +
(s - 1 ! (s -
(10)(4) (10/4) 3

(3-1)! [3(4)-10]

()

(0.045) + (10/4) = 6

= 6/10 = 0.60 hr = 36 min

Average number of
customers in queue
Average time customer
spends in queue

Lq = L

Wq =

Pw =
Probability an arriving
customer must wait

Lq

= 3.5/10 = 0.35 hrs = 21 min

= 6 - 10/4 = 3.5

(
s! ( )
1

10 3

(
3! ( 4 )

s
s -

)P

3(4)
3(4)-10

) (0.45) = 0.703

Improving Service

Add a 4th server to improve service


Recompute operating characteristics
Po = 0.073 prob of no customers
L = 3.0 customers
W = 0.30 hour, 18 min in service
Lq = 0.5 customers waiting
Wq = 0.05 hours, 3 min waiting, versus 21 earlier
Pw = 0.31 prob that customer must wait