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# Waiting Line Models for

Service Improvement
Model Antrian untuk
Perbaikan Pelayanan

Elements Of
Waiting Line Analysis

Queue
a single waiting line

## Waiting line system

arrivals
servers
waiting line structures

Calling population

source of customers
an infinite population assumes such a large
number of customers that it is always possible
for one more customer to arrive to be served
a finite population consists of a countable
number of potential customers

Arrival rate,

## frequency of customer arrivals to system

typically follows Poisson distribution

Service time

## Arrival rate must be less than service rate

or system never clears out

Components Of A Queuing
System
Source of
customers
Arrivals

Waiting Line
or queue

Server

Served
customers

Queue discipline

## order in which customers are served

first come, first served is most common

## infinite is most common

finite is limited by some physical
structure

## Phases denote number of sequential

servers the customer must go through

Single-Channel Structures
Single-channel, single-phase
Waiting line

Server

## Single-channel, multiple phases

Waiting line

Servers

Multi-Channel Structures
Multiple-channel, single phase

Waiting line
Servers

Multiple-channel, multiple-phase
Waiting line
Servers

Operating Characteristics

## The mathematics of queuing theory does not

provide optimal or best solutions

## Instead, operating characteristics are

computed that describe system performance

## Steady state provides the average value of

performance characteristics that the system
will reach after a long time

Operating Characteristics
Notation

Description

## Average number of customers in the system

(waiting and being served)

Lq

## Average time a customer spends in the system

(waiting and being served)

Wq

P0

Pn

system is in use

Expected costs

Analysis
Total cost

Service
cost
Waiting Costs

Level of service

And Quality

## Traditional view - the level of service

should coincide with the minimum point on
the total cost curve

## TQM view - absolute quality service is the

most cost-effective in the long run

Single-Channel, Single-Phase
Models
All assume Poisson arrival rate
Variations

## exponential service times

general (or unknown) distribution of service times
constant service times
exponential service times with finite queue length
exponential service times with finite calling
population

Assumptions:

## Poisson arrival rate

exponential service times
first-come, first-served queue discipline
infinite queue length
infinite calling population

## = mean arrival rate

= mean service rate

## Formulas for Single-Server Model

Probability that no customers P0 =
are in system
Probability of exactly n
customers in system

Pn =
=

Average number of
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

(1 -

()
n
( )

L =

Lq =

P0
(1 -

spends in system

W =

spends in queue

Wq =

## Probability that server

is busy, utilization factor

## Probability that server is

idle & customer can be served

= = (1 -

) = P0

Single-Server Example
Given: = 24 per hour, = 30 customers per hour
Probability that no customers
are in system

Average number of
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

P0 =

(1 -

) = 1 - (24/30) = 0.20

L =

= 24/(30-24) = 4

Lq =

= 242/30(30-24) = 3.2

= 1(30-24) = 0.167 hr = 10 min
W =

## Average time customer

spends in system
Average time customer
spends in queue

Wq =

## Probability that server

is busy, utilization factor
Probability that server is
idle & customer can be served

## = 24/30(30-24) = 0.133 hr = 8 min

=
I=

= 24/30 = 0.80

= 1 - 0.80 = 0.20

## Waiting Line Cost Analysis

Management wants to test two alternatives to
reduce customer waiting time:
1. Hire another employee to pack up
purchases
2. Open another checkout counter

Alternative 1

## Extra employee costs \$150 / week

Each one-minute reduction in customer waiting time avoids
\$75 in lost sales
Extra employee will increase service rate to 40 customers per
hour
Recompute operating characteristics
Wq = 0.038 hours = 2.25 minutes, originally was 8 minutes
8.00 - 2.25 = 5.75 minutes
5.75 x \$75/minute/week = \$431.25 per week
New employee saves \$431.25 - 150.00 = \$281.25 / week

Alternative II

New counter costs \$6000 plus \$200 per week for checker
Customers divide themselves between two checkout lines
Arrival rate is reduced from = 24 to = 12
Service rate for each checker is = 30
Recompute operating characteristics
Wq = 0.022 hours = 1.33 minutes, originally was 8 minutes
8.00 - 1.33 = 6.67 minutes
6.67 x \$75/minute/week = \$500.00/wk - 200.00 = \$300/wk
Counter is paid off in 6000/300 = 20 weeks
Counter saves \$300/wk; choose alternative II

## Constant service times occur with

machinery and automated equipment

## Constant service times are a special

case of the single-server model with
general or undefined service times

## Operating Characteristics For

Constant Service Times
Probability that no customers
are in system
Average number of
customers in queue

P0 = (1 -

Lq =

Average number of
customers in system

L = Lq +

spends in queue

Lq
Wq =

spends in system

W = Wq +

## Probability that server

is busy, utilization factor

## When service time is

constant and = 0,
formula can be simplified

Lq =

## Automated car wash with service time = 4.5 min

Cars arrive at rate = 10/hour (Poisson)
= 60/4.5 = 13.3/hour
Lq =

Lq
Wq =

(10)2
2(13.3)(13.3-10)

## A physical limit exists on length of queue

M = maximum number in queue
Service rate does not have to exceed arrival rate to
obtain steady-state conditions ()

Probability that no
customers are in system
Probability of exactly n
customers in system
Average number of
customers in system

P0 =
Pn =
L =

M
(P0 )

()

for n M
(M + 1() M + 1
1 - ( )M+1

## Let PM = probability a customer will not join the system

Average number of
customers in queue

Lq =

(1- PM)

spends in system

W =

(1 - PM)

spends in queue

Wq =

## Finite Queue Example

Quick Lube has waiting space for only 3 cars
= 20, = 30, M = 4 cars (1 in service + 3 waiting)
Probability that no
cars are in system
Probability of exactly
n cars in system
Average number of
cars in system

P0 =

Pm = (P0 )
L =
=

n=M

()

20/30
1 -20/30

1 - 20/30
20/30
= (0.38)

20

( 30 )

= 0.38
4

= 0.076

(M + 1() M + 1
1 - ( )M+1
(5(20/30) 5
1 - (20/30)

= 1.24

Average number of
cars in queue

spends in system
Average time car
spends in queue

(1- PM)

20(1-0.076)
= 1.24 = 0.62
30

Lq = L
L
W =

(1 - PM)

1.24
20 (1-0.076)

= 0.67 hours
= 4.03 min

Wq = W

= 0.067 -

30

= 0.033 hours
= 2.03 min

## Arrivals originate from a finite (countable) population

N = population size

Probability that no
P0 =
customers are in system

N!

n = 0 (N - n)!

Probability of exactly n
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

Pn =

Lq =

N!

()

(N - n)!

P0

where n = 1, 2, ..., N

(1- P0)

Average number of
customers in system

spends in queue

spends in system

L =

Wq =

W =

Lq + (1- P0)

Lq
(N - L)

Wq +

## 20 machines which operate an average of 200 hrs

before breaking down
= 1/200 hr = 0.005/hr
Mean repair time = 3.6 hrs
= 1/3.6 hr = 0.2778/hr

Probability that no
P0 =
machines are in system

1
N

N!

n = 0 (N - n)!

1
20

20!

n = 0 (20 - n)!

= 0.652
(0.005/0.2778)n

Average number of
machines in queue

Lq = N

= 20
Average number of
machines in system

(1- P0)

0.005 + 0.2778
0.005

Wq =
spends in queue

spends in system

0.169

Lq
(N - L)

W = Wq +

= 1.74 +

1
0.278

= 1.74

= 5.33 hrs

waiting line

## Poisson arrivals, exponential service, infinite calling

population

s>
P0 =

n= 0

n=s-1

1
n!

()

]+

1
s!

()(

s
s -

Probability of exactly n
customers in system

Pn =

Pn =

Probability an arriving
customer must wait

Average number of
customers in system

Pw =

L =

()

n!

()

1
s! s

n-s

for n > s

P0,

for n <= s

() (

s!

P0,

s
s -

(s - 1 ! (s -

P0 +

)P

()

## Average time customer

spends in system

Average number of
customers in queue

## Average time customer

spends in queue

W =

Lq =

Wq =

Lq

Utilization factor

/s

Multiple-Server Example
Customer service area
= 10 customers/area
= 4 customers/hour per service rep
s = (3)(4) = 12
P0 =

1
0!

n= 0

n=s-1

0 1
+
1!

( )

1
n!

()

]+

1
s!

()(

s
s -

1
1 1
+

2!

( )

( )

] + ( )(
1
3!

3 3(4)
3(4)-10

= 0.045

Average number of
customers in system

L=

## Average time customer

spends in system

W =

P0 +
(s - 1 ! (s -
(10)(4) (10/4) 3

(3-1)! [3(4)-10]

()

(0.045) + (10/4) = 6

## = 6/10 = 0.60 hr = 36 min

Average number of
customers in queue
Average time customer
spends in queue

Lq = L

Wq =

Pw =
Probability an arriving
customer must wait

Lq

## = 3.5/10 = 0.35 hrs = 21 min

= 6 - 10/4 = 3.5

(
s! ( )
1

10 3

(
3! ( 4 )

s
s -

)P

3(4)
3(4)-10

) (0.45) = 0.703

Improving Service

## Add a 4th server to improve service

Recompute operating characteristics
Po = 0.073 prob of no customers
L = 3.0 customers
W = 0.30 hour, 18 min in service
Lq = 0.5 customers waiting
Wq = 0.05 hours, 3 min waiting, versus 21 earlier
Pw = 0.31 prob that customer must wait