You are on page 1of 42

Waiting Line Models for

Service Improvement
Model Antrian untuk
Perbaikan Pelayanan

Elements Of
Waiting Line Analysis

Queue
a single waiting line

Waiting line system

arrivals
servers
waiting line structures

Calling population

source of customers
an infinite population assumes such a large
number of customers that it is always possible
for one more customer to arrive to be served
a finite population consists of a countable
number of potential customers

Arrival rate,

frequency of customer arrivals to system

typically follows Poisson distribution

Service time

Arrival rate must be less than service rate

or system never clears out

Components Of A Queuing
System
Source of
customers
Arrivals

Waiting Line
or queue

Server

Served
customers

Queue discipline

order in which customers are served

first come, first served is most common

infinite is most common

finite is limited by some physical
structure

Phases denote number of sequential

servers the customer must go through

Single-Channel Structures
Single-channel, single-phase
Waiting line

Server

Single-channel, multiple phases

Waiting line

Servers

Multi-Channel Structures
Multiple-channel, single phase

Waiting line
Servers

Multiple-channel, multiple-phase
Waiting line
Servers

Operating Characteristics

The mathematics of queuing theory does not

provide optimal or best solutions

computed that describe system performance

Steady state provides the average value of

performance characteristics that the system
will reach after a long time

Operating Characteristics
Notation

Description

Average number of customers in the system

(waiting and being served)

Lq

Average time a customer spends in the system

(waiting and being served)

Wq

P0

Pn

system is in use

Expected costs

Analysis
Total cost

Service
cost
Waiting Costs

Level of service

And Quality

Traditional view - the level of service

should coincide with the minimum point on
the total cost curve

TQM view - absolute quality service is the

most cost-effective in the long run

Single-Channel, Single-Phase
Models
All assume Poisson arrival rate
Variations

exponential service times

general (or unknown) distribution of service times
constant service times
exponential service times with finite queue length
exponential service times with finite calling
population

Assumptions:

Poisson arrival rate

exponential service times
first-come, first-served queue discipline
infinite queue length
infinite calling population

= mean arrival rate

= mean service rate

Formulas for Single-Server Model

Probability that no customers P0 =
are in system
Probability of exactly n
customers in system

Pn =
=

Average number of
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

(1 -

()
n
( )

L =

Lq =

P0
(1 -

spends in system

W =

spends in queue

Wq =

Probability that server

is busy, utilization factor

Probability that server is

idle & customer can be served

= = (1 -

) = P0

Single-Server Example
Given: = 24 per hour, = 30 customers per hour
Probability that no customers
are in system

Average number of
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

P0 =

(1 -

) = 1 - (24/30) = 0.20

L =

= 24/(30-24) = 4

Lq =

= 242/30(30-24) = 3.2

= 1(30-24) = 0.167 hr = 10 min
W =

Average time customer

spends in system
Average time customer
spends in queue

Wq =

Probability that server

is busy, utilization factor
Probability that server is
idle & customer can be served

= 24/30(30-24) = 0.133 hr = 8 min

=
I=

= 24/30 = 0.80

= 1 - 0.80 = 0.20

Waiting Line Cost Analysis

Management wants to test two alternatives to
reduce customer waiting time:
1. Hire another employee to pack up
purchases
2. Open another checkout counter

Alternative 1

Extra employee costs \$150 / week

Each one-minute reduction in customer waiting time avoids
\$75 in lost sales
Extra employee will increase service rate to 40 customers per
hour
Recompute operating characteristics
Wq = 0.038 hours = 2.25 minutes, originally was 8 minutes
8.00 - 2.25 = 5.75 minutes
5.75 x \$75/minute/week = \$431.25 per week
New employee saves \$431.25 - 150.00 = \$281.25 / week

Alternative II

New counter costs \$6000 plus \$200 per week for checker
Customers divide themselves between two checkout lines
Arrival rate is reduced from = 24 to = 12
Service rate for each checker is = 30
Recompute operating characteristics
Wq = 0.022 hours = 1.33 minutes, originally was 8 minutes
8.00 - 1.33 = 6.67 minutes
6.67 x \$75/minute/week = \$500.00/wk - 200.00 = \$300/wk
Counter is paid off in 6000/300 = 20 weeks
Counter saves \$300/wk; choose alternative II

Constant service times occur with

machinery and automated equipment

Constant service times are a special

case of the single-server model with
general or undefined service times

Operating Characteristics For

Constant Service Times
Probability that no customers
are in system
Average number of
customers in queue

P0 = (1 -

Lq =

Average number of
customers in system

L = Lq +

spends in queue

Lq
Wq =

spends in system

W = Wq +

Probability that server

is busy, utilization factor

When service time is

constant and = 0,
formula can be simplified

Lq =

Automated car wash with service time = 4.5 min

Cars arrive at rate = 10/hour (Poisson)
= 60/4.5 = 13.3/hour
Lq =

Lq
Wq =

(10)2
2(13.3)(13.3-10)

A physical limit exists on length of queue

M = maximum number in queue
Service rate does not have to exceed arrival rate to

Probability that no
customers are in system
Probability of exactly n
customers in system
Average number of
customers in system

P0 =
Pn =
L =

M
(P0 )

()

for n M
(M + 1() M + 1
1 - ( )M+1

Let PM = probability a customer will not join the system

Average number of
customers in queue

Lq =

(1- PM)

spends in system

W =

(1 - PM)

spends in queue

Wq =

Finite Queue Example

Quick Lube has waiting space for only 3 cars
= 20, = 30, M = 4 cars (1 in service + 3 waiting)
Probability that no
cars are in system
Probability of exactly
n cars in system
Average number of
cars in system

P0 =

Pm = (P0 )
L =
=

n=M

()

20/30
1 -20/30

1 - 20/30
20/30
= (0.38)

20

( 30 )

= 0.38
4

= 0.076

(M + 1() M + 1
1 - ( )M+1
(5(20/30) 5
1 - (20/30)

= 1.24

Average number of
cars in queue

spends in system
Average time car
spends in queue

(1- PM)

20(1-0.076)
= 1.24 = 0.62
30

Lq = L
L
W =

(1 - PM)

1.24
20 (1-0.076)

= 0.67 hours
= 4.03 min

Wq = W

= 0.067 -

30

= 0.033 hours
= 2.03 min

Arrivals originate from a finite (countable) population

N = population size

Probability that no
P0 =
customers are in system

N!

n = 0 (N - n)!

Probability of exactly n
customers in system
Average number of
customers in queue

Pn =

Lq =

N!

()

(N - n)!

P0

where n = 1, 2, ..., N

(1- P0)

Average number of
customers in system

spends in queue

spends in system

L =

Wq =

W =

Lq + (1- P0)

Lq
(N - L)

Wq +

20 machines which operate an average of 200 hrs

before breaking down
= 1/200 hr = 0.005/hr
Mean repair time = 3.6 hrs
= 1/3.6 hr = 0.2778/hr

Probability that no
P0 =
machines are in system

1
N

N!

n = 0 (N - n)!

1
20

20!

n = 0 (20 - n)!

= 0.652
(0.005/0.2778)n

Average number of
machines in queue

Lq = N

= 20
Average number of
machines in system

(1- P0)

0.005 + 0.2778
0.005

Wq =
spends in queue

spends in system

0.169

Lq
(N - L)

W = Wq +

= 1.74 +

1
0.278

= 1.74

= 5.33 hrs

waiting line

Poisson arrivals, exponential service, infinite calling

population

s>
P0 =

n= 0

n=s-1

1
n!

()

]+

1
s!

()(

s
s -

Probability of exactly n
customers in system

Pn =

Pn =

Probability an arriving
customer must wait

Average number of
customers in system

Pw =

L =

()

n!

()

1
s! s

n-s

for n > s

P0,

for n <= s

() (

s!

P0,

s
s -

(s - 1 ! (s -

P0 +

)P

()

Average time customer

spends in system

Average number of
customers in queue

Average time customer

spends in queue

W =

Lq =

Wq =

Lq

Utilization factor

/s

Multiple-Server Example
Customer service area
= 10 customers/area
= 4 customers/hour per service rep
s = (3)(4) = 12
P0 =

1
0!

n= 0

n=s-1

0 1
+
1!

( )

1
n!

()

]+

1
s!

()(

s
s -

1
1 1
+

2!

( )

( )

] + ( )(
1
3!

3 3(4)
3(4)-10

= 0.045

Average number of
customers in system

L=

Average time customer

spends in system

W =

P0 +
(s - 1 ! (s -
(10)(4) (10/4) 3

(3-1)! [3(4)-10]

()

(0.045) + (10/4) = 6

= 6/10 = 0.60 hr = 36 min

Average number of
customers in queue
Average time customer
spends in queue

Lq = L

Wq =

Pw =
Probability an arriving
customer must wait

Lq

= 3.5/10 = 0.35 hrs = 21 min

= 6 - 10/4 = 3.5

(
s! ( )
1

10 3

(
3! ( 4 )

s
s -

)P

3(4)
3(4)-10

) (0.45) = 0.703

Improving Service

Add a 4th server to improve service

Recompute operating characteristics
Po = 0.073 prob of no customers
L = 3.0 customers
W = 0.30 hour, 18 min in service
Lq = 0.5 customers waiting
Wq = 0.05 hours, 3 min waiting, versus 21 earlier
Pw = 0.31 prob that customer must wait