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VII.

Observation-Parameter Statistics
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

7.
8.
9.

Composite scaled sensitivities for estimated parameters


Parameter variances and covariances
Leverage and Influence
Parameter correlation coefficients
Parameter uniqueness
Parameter standard deviations, confidence intervals, and
coefficients of variation
Parameter confidence intervals
Reasonable ranges
Measures of model nonlinearity

For preliminary evaluation, use fit-independent statistics (all


but the influence statistics.

1. Composite Scaled Sensitivities (Book, p. 124-125)

CSS were used initially to help decide which parameters to estimate.


Recall that they indicate the total amount of information provided by the
observations for the estimation of each individual parameter.
Can be also be used as an initial gauge of the reliability with which the
parameters are estimated. Parameters with larger values of CSS are
generally estimated more reliably than those with smaller values of CSS.
After the regression has converged, it is important to recalculate CSS for
all parameters, to check whether the conclusions made for the initial CSS
about which parameters to estimate still apply. Should additional
parameters be estimated? Should changes be made in the use of prior
information?
DO EXERCISE 7.1a (p. 145)

What is the difference between initial and final CSS values?

Effect of model nonlinearity and scaling?

Use CSS to explain small weighted residuals for prior information.

1. Composite Scaled Sensitivities


Composite scaled sensitivities
from the starting steady-state model

An alternative:
The relative
parameter coefficients
of variation can also
be plotted.
- They equal the
parameter standard
deviation divided by
the parameter value.
Composite scaled sensitivities
-Not fit-independent,
from the final steady-state model
but all are multiplied
by the same value of
the standard error of
the regression so
relative values are
(Book, Fig. 7-5a, p. 146)useful.

2. Parameter Variances and Covariances


The variance-covariance matrix for the parameters is:.
(Hill and Tiedeman, 2007, p. 125, eq 7.1)

V(b)=s2(XT X) -1
b is a vector of parameter values
s2 is he calculated error variance (measure of model fit)
X is the matrix of sensitivities of the simulated equivalents
to the observations, calculated at b
is the weight matrix

2. Parameter variance-covariance matrix

V(b)=s2(XT X)-1
Five versions
a.

b.
c.
d.
e.

For versions a and b, s2 is calculated using optimal


parameter values and statistics affected by s2 can be
meaningful

For versions c, d, and e, use statistics for which s2


divides out
For now we will work with version (a)

With optimized parameter values and only optimized


parameters.
With optimized parameter values and all defined parameters
With nonoptimal parameter values
Alternate observation sets observations omitted or added
With predictions

2. Parameter Variances and Covariances


(book p. 126)

The diagonal elements of the matrix are the parameter variances;


the off-diagonal elements are the parameter covariances. For a 3
parameter problem, the matrix is:

Var (1)
Cov (2,1)
Cov (3,1)

Cov(1,2)
Var (2)
Cov (3,2)

Cov(1,3)
Cov (2,3)
Var (3)

2. Parameter Variances and Covariances

(Book, p. 126)

The parameter variance-covariance matrix is used to


evaluate parameter uncertainty and parameter
correlation.
Generally, we use statistics computed from the parameter
variance-covariance matrix, rather than elements of the
matrix itself.

2. Regression Parameter Variances and


Covariances

In regression, the parameter values are estimated indirectly


using observations.
This can be accomplished because the simulation model is
based on equations that relate observations to parameter
values.
Because of this indirect way of estimating parameter values,
parameter variances and covariances are calculated using
sensitivities.
Interpretation of the variance and correlation of parameters
estimated by regression :

The variance indicates the range over which a parameter value could
extend without affecting model fit too adversely.
The parameter correlation coefficients indicate whether coordinated
changes in the parameter values could produce the same simulated
values and, therefore, the same model fit.

2. Parameter Variances and Covariances

b2

Linear objective function:


No correlation, b1 less sensitive

~Var(b2)

minimum

Can change b1 and have little


change in the objective
function. Objective function
changes more quickly with b2

~Var(b1)

b1

2. Parameter Variances and Covariances

b2

Linear objective function


Strong, negative correlation
Can change b1 and b2
together and have little
change in the objective
function

minimum

b1

3. Leverage and Influence

Based on V(b)
Important to understand the role that observations
play in the regression
Estimates can be largely affected by very few
observations
Two characteristics are important
Leverage depends only on the type, location,
and time of the observation
Influence depends on the observed value as well

3. Leverage (p. 134)

Leverage Statistics identify observations for which observed


values potentially have a big effect on regression results
If the observation is inconsistent with other observations,
the observation will dominate the estimated parameter
values if it has high leverage.
Measures a potential effect.

May or may not be an actual effect.

hi x i X X x i
T

where
hi is leverage of ith parameter
x i is a vector composed of the scaled sensitivities of the ith
parameter or the transpose of the ith row of the X matrix

3. Leverage for linear regression

Leverage = (1/n) + [(xi-(x/n))2]/SSx


Leverage is large when the X for an observation is far from
the mean of the Xs.
In linear regression, the X values are equivalent to our
sensitivities.
The idea that high leverage parameters are those for which
the sensitivities are somehow different carries over to
multiple, nonlinear regression.

3. Influence: Cooks D and DFBETAS

Influence Statistics incorporate calculated residuals to


determine the actual effect of the observation in the
regression

Cooks D is a measure of how a set of parameter


estimates would change with omission of an observation,
relative to how well the parameters are estimated given
the entire set of observations (in file with extension ._rc)
DFBETAS measures the importance of one observation to
one parameter. Specifically, the influence of observation i
on parameter j, scaled by the variance of parameter j
when estimated using all observations (in file with ._rb)

residual_analysis.exe calculates these measures


and prints them in UCODE_2005 data-exchange files

3. Leverage vs. Influence


High leverage
LowHighinfluence
leverage, low influence

10

130

19

19

120

8
110

100

90

Exclude obs 18
Observations excluding 18

High leverage, high influence

80

3
70

All obs

All observations

Observations excluding 19

Exclude obs 19

60

High leverage
High influence

18

18

50
0

10

20

30

40

0
50

10

15

20

25

Regression line when the more influential of the


points considered is omitted from the regression

30

Exercises

EXERCISE 7.1b: Evaluate leverage statistics (p. 146)


Statistics needed are in ex5.2c_ucode._so
EXERCISE 7.1c: Evaluate importance of using influence
statistics (p. 146)
DFBETAS are in file ex5.2c_ucode._rb
Cooks D are in file ex5.2c_ucode._rc
Produced in exercise 6.2e by running the
residual_analysis computer program
Use the equations in Hill and Tiedeman (2007) to
calculate the critical values. Compare them to the
graphs to identify influential observations.
Cood
Cooks D: 4/(ND+NPR) DFBETAS: 2/(ND+NPR) 1/2

4. Parameter Correlation Coefficients (Book, p. 127)

Parameter correlation coefficients (from the _pcc file) are used primarily
to assess parameter uniqueness
Computed from parameter variance-covariance matrix values

cor bi , b j

cov bi , b j

var bi

var b j

Correlation coefficients are typically presented as a matrix.


Independent of model fit (s2 cancels out in calculation). Correlation
coefficients depend only on sensitivities of the simulated equivalents to
the parameters, and weights.
Because of model nonlinearity, parameter correlation coefficients are a
function of parameter values.
Variances are always positive, covariances (and therefore, correlation
coefficients) can be positive or negative.

4. Parameter Correlation Coefficients

If the absolute value of a correlation for a parameter pair


is greater than about 0.95, then it may not be possible to
estimate the 2 parameters uniquely using the available
regression data. Changing the parameter values in a
coordinated manner may produce very similar model
results.
In this case, it is essential to restart the regression with
different initial parameter values and check whether the
regression converges to the same estimates. If not, then
the parameter estimates are not unique
Absolute values close to 1.0 may also cause failure of the
regression to converge to a set of optimal values.
DO EXERCISE 7.1d (p. 148)

4. Correlation Coefficients and Inaccurate Sensitivities

If using a perturbation method to calculate sensitivities using, for


example, UCODE_2005 or PEST, the sensitivities generally are less
accurate than those computed using the sensitivity equation method
using, for example, MODFLOW-2000.
Inaccurate sensitivities produce parameter correlation coefficients close
to 1.0 that are reliable, but correlation coefficients far from 1.0 that may
be inaccurate. The problem becomes worse as one or both of the
parameters involved in the correlation become less sensitive.

Correlation coefficients far from 1.0 may mean either there is a lack
of correlation or the correlations are not accurate enough.

It is important to test for nonuniqueness even if the calculated


correlations are not close to 1.0
FINISH EXERCISE 7.1d

4. Parameter Correlation Coefficients

EXERCISE 7.2: Consider all the different correlation


coefficients presented (p. 155)

R=

R N2 =

(6.11a)

m
e 0 m T e o m T
T

cov j , k
pcc j , k
1/ 2
1/ 2
var j var k

(6.18)
(7.5)

5. Further tests for nonunique parameters

While useful, for a variety for reasons parameter correlation


coefficients can fail to detect nonunique solutions.
Furthe investigation methods include starting the regression
from alternative starting values of the parameters and using
global sensitivity analysis and regression methods.
In this class we consider alternative starting values of the
parameters.

Exercise 7.1e. Detecting non-unique parameter


estimates instructions for MFI2005

First, perform a regression run without flow observation and prior information:

In MFI2K, save the ex5.2c dataset as dataset ex7.1e and use the ex7.1e dataset in
this exercise
To omit the flow observation, click on Deactivate under the Options menu in MFI,
and deactivate RVOB
In Observations>Single-Head Observations, make the name of the output file
ex7.1e._os
From the UCODE menu, remove the prior information equations
Perform regression
Do part 1 of the Problem on p. 150 of Hill and Tiedeman
Run UCODE_2005 with SensitivityAnalysis=yes to obtain a parameter correlation
matrix

Next, include the flow observation and prior information, and start the
regression from different initial values:

Include the flow observation by activating RVOB


In the PES file, include the prior information equations, and change MAX-ITER to 10
In the SEN file, change the starting parameter values to the values in set 1 of table
10, perform nonlinear regression, and rename the _ot file from this run. Then, change
the values to those in set 2 of table 10, and perform nonlinear regression
Do part 2 of the Problem on p. 151 of Hill and Tiedeman

6. Parameter Standard Deviation and


Coefficient of Variation (Book, p. 127)

The parameter standard deviation () for parameter bj is the square root


of the parameter variance (on the diagonal of the parameter variancecovariance matrix):

parameter standard deviation variance


The parameter standard deviation is easier to interpret than the
parameter variance, because it is in the same units as the parameter
value.
The parameter coefficient of variation is:

coeff of var standard deviation


parameter value

The coefficient of variation is dimensionless, and can be used to


compare the relative precision of different parameter estimates

7. Individual Linear Confidence Intervals

The linear individual confidence interval (CI) on a parameter is calculated as:

bj t n,1.0 sb
2

where

(Book, p. 138)

t n,1.0 the Student - t statistic for n degrees of freedom


2

and a significance level of


n ND NPR - NP'
A 95 1percent
linear
CI the
on atrue
parameter
hasvalue
a 95 percent
probability
.0 individual
probabilit
y that
parameter
lies in the
CI

of containing the true parameter value (when the model is sufficiently linear with
respect to the parameters)

7. Individual Linear Confidence Intervals


Student-t probability distribution: Similar to normal distribution
except adjusts for smaller sample sizes. As n becomes large,
the distribution approaches the normal distribution

Width of a confidence interval can be thought of as precision


of estimate

Three important assumptions are made in deriving the linear


confidence intervals:

a.

The model is correct

b.

The parameter values are normally distributed

c.

The model is linear near the optimal values

7. Individual Linear Confidence Intervals

For a linear model, the parameter estimates are normally


distributed if the true observation errors are normally
distributed.
However, because the true errors are unknown, we
analyze the weighted residuals instead, by constructing a
normal probability plot and evaluating RN2.
Model linearity can be evaluated using the modified
Beales measure (exercise 7.3)
DO EXERCISE 7.1f (p. 151): Evaluate precision by
examining standard deviations, linear confidence
intervals, and coefficients of variation

7. Linear 95% Confidence Intervals on


Estimated Parameter Values

there is a 95%
chance that the
true parameter
values vall within
the calculated
ranges.

Fig. 7.7, p. 153

If the model and


weighting are
correct and the
mean of the true
errors is zero,

8. Comparing Estimated Parameter Values with


Reasonable Ranges (Book, p. 140)

It is important to compare the regression estimates of the parameter and


the calculated confidence intervals with the reasonable ranges of
parameter values. (But you set the reasonable ranges, so be careful.)
3 common situations:
Range of
Reasonable
Values

Parameter
Value

Situation

1: Parameter estimate and most of confidence intervals lie within reasonable range
2: Parameter estimate and confidence intervals lie outside reasonable range
3: Parameter estimate lies outside the range but part of confidence intervals lies
within the range

8. Comparing Estimated Parameter Values with


Reasonable Ranges
Parameter
Value

Range of
Reasonable
Values

Situation 1: Desirable enough information to estimate the parameter


precisely, and the estimate is consistent with independent information (we
have learned something: the probable range is smaller than the original
range of reasonable values)
Situation 2: Problematic enough information to estimate the parameter
precisely, but the estimate is inconsistent with independent information (we
need to reconsider model, choice of parameters, measurements : why
does the outcome go against our expectations)
Situation 3: Inconclusive - there is enough information to estimate the
parameter, but not with much precision (we did not learn anything new)

8. Comparing Estimated Parameter Values with


Reasonable Ranges
Range of
Reasonable
Values

Parameter
Value
1

Situation 3: Modeler needs to think about (1) what additional data could provide
more information towards estimating the parameter, and (2) improvements to the
conceptual model of the system.

2
Situation

Consider adding more observation data, such as flows or concentrations


Regression estimate of parameter may become more reasonable and CI may become
smaller

Situations 2 and 3: Adding prior does not address the fundamental problem. There
is enough information for the regression to converge to a particular parameter value.
The modeler needs to think about what is causing the unreasonable estimates.
DO EXERCISE 7.1g (p. 153) Compare estimated values with reasonable ranges

Confidence intervals,
starting, final, and true
values, compared to
reasonable ranges
(Book, Figure 7-7,
p.153)

GW_Chart can
make graphs like
these.

_pc

9. Test linearity of model

Linear confidence intervals are only valid when the


model is sufficiently linear.
Model linearity is evaluated by using the modified Beales
measure and total and intrinsic model linearity measures

Modified Beales Measure. ex7.3_ucode.#modlin

USING FSTAT = 3.8660


, BEALES MEASURE = 35.435
IF BEALES MEASURE IS GREATER THAN
0.26
, THE MODEL IS NONLINEAR.
IF BEALES MEASURE IS LESS THAN
0.23E-01, THE MODEL IS EFFECTIVELY LINEAR,
AND LINEAR CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ARE FAIRLY ACCURATE IF THE RESIDUALS ARE
NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED.

From output file ex7.3_ucode.#modlinadv_conf


##########################################################
###########
########### TOTAL NONLINEARITY (BNT).......... = 45.433
########### INTRINSIC NONLINEARITY (BNI)...... = 0.12908
###########
###########CRITICAL VALUES FOR BOTH MEASURES:
########### >1.0 highly nonlinear
########### 0.09 to 1.0 non-linear
########### 0.01 to 0.09 moderately nonlinear
########### <0.01 effectively linear
##########################################################

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

7.
8.
9.

Composite scaled sensitivities for estimated parameters


Parameter variances and covariances
Leverage and Influence
Parameter correlation coefficients
Parameter uniqueness
Parameter standard deviations, confidence intervals, and
coefficients of variation
Parameter confidence intervals
Reasonable ranges
Measures of model nonlinearity

End of VII. Parameter Statistics