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14

2012/27/


, 5 2016

2012/27/ - .4342/2015
(.14 &
.15 )


:
,


2012/27/ - .4342/2015


20 MW


(20 MW),

(20 MW)



(20 MW),

2012/27/ - .4342/2015
-


(1.500)
(5) ,


,
(20 MW),
( GWh) (
km) / 1,5.

2012/27/ - .4342/2015
:
,
,

, ,
, ,
.

:
(50%)
(50%)
(75%)
(50%)
.



&


-
, 2020 2030



( : 5)

- , :
2013,
2011 (.),

,
.
2013,
, , ,
& , , ,




TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System).
(NUTS 2) ,
.
: ,
,
:

(1).
:
/, , , ,
(.. ). (
)





(Supply):

. :
20 GWh/yr


()
(Demand):
,

(Supply):

(Supply):

(Supply):

-


:
:

-
1:

2:

:
1. &
2. .
3:

.
4:

, .

1

:

500
500-2000
2000-10000
>10000

:


/

1

,
:

>0

10%


(+) :
.
(-) :
.
(+)
:

(+)
:

, , ,

.

(klm)

1
5
10
15
20
30
40
50

(klm)

1
5
10
15
20
30
40
50

500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000

100.000

36%
67%
80%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

21%
55%
70%
78%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

10%
43%
61%
71%
76%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

18%
40%
53%
61%
71%
77%
81%

15%
31%
42%
56%
64%
70%

6%
19%
37%
48%
56%

17%
28%

20.000

50.000

100.000

13%
30%
42%
51%

9%
21%

500

1.000

2.000

34%
64%
77%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

18%
51%
67%
75%
80%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

8%
39%
58%
67%
73%
81%
B/C<1
B/C<1

5.000
10.000

14%
35%
48%
57%
68%
74%
78%

10%
25%
36%
51%
60%
66%

(klm)

1
5
10
15
20
30
40
50

500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000

31%
60%
74%
81%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

15%
46%
63%
72%
77%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

5%
34%
53%
63%
69%
77%
82%
B/C<1

8%
29%
42%
51%
63%
70%
75%

18%
29%
44%
54%
61%

4%
22%
34%
44%

11%

100.00
0

(klm)

1
5
10
15
20
30
40
50

500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000

30%
58%
72%
79%
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1
B/C<1

14%
44%
61%
70%
75%
82%
B/C<1
B/C<1

32%
50%
60%
67%
76%
81%
B/C<1

5%
26%
39%
48%
60%
67%
73%

14%
25%
40%
51%
58%

17%
30%
39%

5%

100.00
0

2
2.1:
2.2:


2

(>100.000 )

2.1:

(klm)

1
5
10
15
20
30
40
50

500

1.000

2.000

5.000

88%
91%
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1

81%
85%
88%
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1

74%
79%
83%
86%
88%
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1

62%
68%
72%
76%
79%
82%
85%
/C<1

2.2:

(klm)

1
5
10
15
20
30
40
50

10.000

20.000

50.000

100.000

50%
56%
61%
65%
68%
73%
77%
80%

38%
43%
48%
52%
56%
62%
66%
70%

17%
22%
27%
32%
36%
43%
48%
53%

4%
9%
13%
17%
24%
30%
35%

500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000

90%
92%
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1

81%
85%
90%
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1

73%
79%
83%
86%
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1
/C<1

62%
68%
73%
77%
80%
84%
/C<1
/C<1

50%
57%
63%
67%
71%
76%
79%
82%

38%
44%
51%
55%
59%
66%
70%
74%

20%
25%
31%
36%
41%
48%
54%
58%

100.00
0
3%
9%
14%
19%
24%
31%
37%
43%

3: -

:
75% ()
25%
:


-

3: -

4:

10

NPV
(euro)
IRR (%)
NPV
(euro)
IRR (%)
B/C

20

NPV
(euro)
IRR (%)
NPV
(euro)
IRR (%)
B/C
%

-9.663,67
-3%

10.731,0
12.238,
5
83
-5%
-10%

13.085,
49
-14%

-1.856

-4.451

-8.120

-10.176

3%
1,39

1%
1,09

-3%
0,67

-7%
0,44

48%

60%

NPV (euro)

-60.831,31

IRR (%)
NPV (euro)
IRR (%)
B/C

1%
23.164
7%
1,92

-51.081,51
37.404,5
3
1%
0%
17.638
9.705
7%
7%
1,90
1,83

20%

21%

25%

29.596,7
6
0%
5.419
6%
1,77
30%

-77.868,95
4%

47.638,
65.272,99
82
3%
3%

37.524,
41
3%

92.096

74.140

48.554

34.482

10%
2,37

10%
2,35

10%
2,30

9%
2,25

12%

13%

16%

18%

NPV
(euro)
IRR (%)
NPV
(euro)
IRR (%)
B/C
%

19.819,5
1
8%

-16.745,24

-12.566,88

-10.001,11

8%

8%

8%

158.886

129.963

88.782

66.089

14%
3,03

14%
3,02

14%
2,98

14%
2,95

15%

15%

15%

15%

4:

10

NPV

-11.586

11.078

IRR
NPV
IRR
B/C

-17%
-9.467
-9%
0,54

-13%
-8.115
-6%
0,63

-10.181

-9.544

-8%
-5.727
-2%
0,77

-6%
-4.031
1%
0,85

20

NPV
IRR

NPV
IRR
B/C

-247.886
-

237.736
-

-213.015
-13%
0,48

185.985
-8%
0,58

-219.802
-12%

-138.225
-3%
0,73

207.06
4
-9%
104.30
4
-1%
0,81

NPV
IRR

-123.517
-

118.442
-22%

NPV
IRR
B/C

-105.884
-12%
0,48

-92.369
-8%
0,58

-109.475
-12%
-68.490
-3%
0,73

103.10
6
-9%
51.529
-1%
0,81

NPV

-238.433

225.302

-201.958

-185.179

IRR

-14%

-8%

-5%

NPV
IRR
B/C

-187.839
-8%
0,57

152.871
-5%
0,69

-90.705
0%
0,84

-46.023
3%
0,93









.
,

( )
( ).


2,
.



,
3
.


15 ( ) 30 (
).
4,

!!!
fkaramani@cres.gr