Menyongsong Jalan Baru Pembangunan Ekonomi

:

SAATNYA MENGAKHIRI CAMPUR TANGAN DAN SUB-ORDINASI ASING
Hendri Saparini, PhD

ECONIT Advisory Group

2

Macro-economy Assumption on APBN
2007 (realization Economic Growth (%)* Inflation (%) Exchange Rate (Rp/US$) Interest Rate SBI-3 months Oil Price (US$/barrel) Lifting (million barrel/day) 6,3 6,59 9.140 8,04 72,31 0,899 APBN 6,8 6,0 9,100 7,5 60,0 1,034 2008 APBN-P 6,4 6,5 9.150 7,5 95,0 0,910

3

Increasing Budget Allocation Share For Poverty Reduction
51 Anggaran Pengentasan Kemiskinan (Rp Triliun) Jumlah Penduduk Miskin (Juta Jiwa) 42 39.3 36.1 35.1

37.2

23 1 8 2004 2005

Menurun karena dilakukan perubahan metodologi dan "pembersihan" sampel data. (Baca paper Tim Indonesia Bangkit, " Angka Kemiskinan Tahun 2007: Apakah Mungkin Lebih Rendah?", Juli 2007)

2006

2007
Sumber: Laporan Pemerintah, BPS

4

High Unemployment Rate
Un p m t R te (% em loy en a )
10.3% 10.4% 9.8%

9.6% 9.1% 8.1%

9.9%

2007 Aug = 9,1% 2008 Feb = 8,4%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 2007*)
S ource: BPS

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Indonesia Economic Situation (#1)
1. Prosperity level of people is far behind other Asian countries (indicators: per capita income, education level, health level, etc) 3. Wide disparity in economic and social: a. Among population b. Between regions c. Between foreign and domestics 4. Weak structure of manufacturing industry (highly dependency on imported raw materials, declining competitiveness, accelerated de-industrialization, domestic market attacked by low value-added and low technology goods, etc).

6

Human Development Index

Human Development Index of Indonesia ranked on number 107 out of 177 countries (2007), while Singapore 25, Brunei 30, Malaysia 78, Thailand 78, and Philipina 90, Vietnam 105. HDI covers infants mortality 35/1000 births (2007), basic education attendance of children, public access to clean water (119 million people without access, 2005), sanitation service only 52% of population (2005)

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Per Capita Income of Indonesian Far Below Those of Other Asian Countries

In terms of competitiveness in 2008, Indonesia ranked on number 59, Singapore 1, Thailand 27, Malaysia 28, China 31, India 39, Filipina 49
(source: Institute for Management Development)

In the mid of 1960s per capita GNP of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, China were relatively at the same lavel, around US$ 100 per kapita. In 2007, the per capita GNP of those countries have grown above Indonesian, which only at US$ 1.946; while, Malaysia US$ 6.947, South Korea US$ 14.000 (2004), Thailand US$ 3.736, Taiwan US$ 14.590 (2004) and China US$ 2.460 (current price).

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Disparity Among People

There were 37,2 million people that live with Rp 5.565 per capita per day (2007). There were also 10,5 million people included into open-unemployment group, while 40 million people. A very small number of individuals has the power to control the largest portion of national economic. It was published that 150 richest persons in Indonesia own more than Rp. 624 trilion of assets. As a comparison, Indonesian National Budget in 2008 is Rp. 854 trilions. Gini ratio data published by BPS showed that social-economic disparity has been widening, in 1991 the gini ratios was 0.18; 1983 (0.21); 1997 (0.24) and 0.36 in 2007.

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Asset Change of the Poor
(40% of poor population)
22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 2002 2006

Asset Change of the Riches
(20% of rich population)
46% 46% 46% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 44% 44% 44% 2002 2006

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Regional Disparity: GDP of Java-Bali vs National GDP (2005)

19%
Luar Jawa Bali

Jawa Bali

81%

Real GDP Indices vs Manufacture Production Indices:

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A Widening Gap
1 60 1 50
Indeks (2000=00) 1

Indeks GDP riil

1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008F
S ber: B , proyeksi E um PS conit

Indeks Produksi Manufaktur

Indices of Manufacture Production Indices by Commodities Q1-Q3 2007 (YoY)
Furnitur Mesin Listrik Pakaian Jadi Barang-Barang dari Logam Kayu dan barang dari kayu Karet, Barang dari Karet Alat Angkutan (selain mobil) Kulit dan Barang dari Kulit Barang Galian Bukan Logam Makanan dan Minuman Jumlah / Total Tembakau Tekstil Batu Bara dan migas Logam Dasar Kertas Kendaraan Bermotor Bahan Kimia Alat ukur dan kesehatan Mesin Alat komunikasi

12

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%
Sumber: BPS

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Indonesia Economic Situation (#2)
 Foreign control on various strategic sectors, such as oil & gas, mining, finance and banking, etc.  Government’s high-dependency upon foreign financing, loan, obligation, direct investment, etc; as a result of economic policy a la Washington Consensus that government income are only from taxes, loans and privatization.  Government’s Debt increasing Rp. 1.306 trillions (2006), and Rp. 1.330 trillion (2008). High Debt to GDP Rasio 37,7% while max 30%.

Ownership and Marketshare:

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Foreign Domination, Less Controlled
National/domestic ownership and market share is small or has declined in some sectors, such as

Oil mining Pertamina: 14.6%, foreign: 85.4% Banks Ownership (2007) Government: 37,45%, Private National: 14,05%, and foreign: 48,5% Domestic textile market National products: 30%, imported: 70%

Foreign market and ownership in Indonesia are not well regulated (not pro-national corporations), for example in Japan, foreign retail limited to 1%, in South Korea foreign retail share only 3%. In Indonesia, foreign retailers have 10% market share.

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Foreign Ownership in Finansial Indonesia Instrument:

Sharply Increasing

(Rp trillion)
Dec-06

Foreign Ownership
Nov-07 Feb-08

Saham SUN SBI TOTAL

522.3 54.9 18.1 595.3

772.4 76.7 42.7 891.8 83.19 17.38% 46.6 16.8% 129.79 34.18%
Source: BI, Depkeu, KSEI

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Government Budget Position (% GDP)

Indonesia Perancis Amerika Serikat Jepang

1975 21.6 43.5 34.6 27.3

1980 25.2 46.4 33.7 32.6

1985 1990 1995 23.5 19.6 14.7 52.2 49.9 54.3 36.4 32.3 36.6 32.3 36.7 36.7

Budget allocation of European Union for agriculture amounted to: USD 100 billion (2000) and USD 112.6 billion (2002)