Adverse Weather and

Aviation Safety

Daniel Hunn, Nigel Johnstone, Simon Proud

The Air Safety Group (ASG)

A voluntary organisation
Wide-ranging membership across the aviation community
The ASG aims to promote air safety through:
Understanding of the current risks
Improved Regulation
Realisation of new standards for operations and training
A particular focus on areas that are given insufficient attention by airlines and the regulators
One such area in need of attention is adverse weather:
We believe that currently there are deficiencies in pilot training and airline operations that
can
result in reduced safety margins when flying in or near adverse weather.
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

What is adverse weather?

Convection and
thunderstorms

Low Visibility

Heavy rain and flooding

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Strong Wind

Lightning Strikes
Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

The effects of adverse weather

Loss of aircraft

Engine malfunctions

Severity

Sensor malfunctions
Aircraft damage
Lightning strike

Cabin damage due to severe turbulence

Turbulence
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

The effects of adverse weather

Loss of aircraft

Engine malfunctions

Severity

Sensor malfunctions
Aircraft damage
Lightning strike

A lightning strike costly and potentially dangerous

Turbulence
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

The effects of adverse weather

Loss of aircraft

Engine malfunctions

Severity

Sensor malfunctions
Aircraft damage
Lightning strike

Hail damage to radar dome and windscreen poor visibility!

Turbulence
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

The effects of adverse weather

Loss of aircraft

Engine malfunctions

Severity

Sensor malfunctions
Aircraft damage
Lightning strike

A speed sensor being blocked by ice causes bad data

Turbulence
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

The effects of adverse weather

Loss of aircraft

Engine malfunctions

Severity

Sensor malfunctions
Aircraft damage
Lightning strike

Ice build-up on a jet engine, can cause loss of power

Turbulence
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

The effects of adverse weather

Loss of aircraft

Engine malfunctions

Severity

Sensor malfunctions
Aircraft damage
Lightning strike

Recovering the remains of Air France flight 447

Turbulence
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

The anatomy of a storm cloud

The various hazards to air safety that are associated with different regions of a large storm cloud.
SCLW: Super-cooled liquid water
Introduction

Weather Hazards

IC Icing: Ice Crystal Icing

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

10

Global distribution of lightning strikes per year

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

11

Bad weather over Europe an example

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

12

Weather incident statistics

19

18.5

18

17.5 to Storm (km)

Distance
17

16.5

16

Night
Introduction

Twilight

Time of Day

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Low Sun

Radar Training

Daylight
Suggestions

13

Weather incident statistics

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

14

Managing the risk posed by adverse weather

Pre-flight, strategic:
Adequate weather information
Good planning team
Trade-off between weather avoidance and added flight distance
In-flight, tactical:
Updated weather info from operations team
Correct usage of weather radar
Coordination with air-traffic control and other aircraft

Operational control and supervision

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

15

What is Operational Control and Supervision (OCS)?

The European Aviation Safety Agency defined operational control as:
The Initiation, Continuation, Termination or Diversion of a flight
While the International Civil Aviation Organisation states that a flight operations
officer should:
Assist the pilot-in-command (PIC) in flight preparation and provide the
relevant information
And
Furnish the PIC while inflight by appropriate means, with information
which may be necessary for the safe conduct of the flight
Large difference between what EASA and ICAO say!

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

16

How can OCS help?

3 Lines of Defence in the Avoidance of Severe Weather:
1. Pre Flight Planning, strategic avoidance
2. Flight Watch or Flight Following, tactical avoidance
3. Airborne Weather Radar, the last line of defence

1st and 2nd are key components of OCS

Pre-flight planning to avoid bad weather is ideal, but not always possible:
. Inaccurate forecasts or rapidly evolving weather.
. Inadequate planning techniques they are often automated.
. Lack of flexibility
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

17

How can OCS help?

3 Lines of Defence in the Avoidance of Severe Weather:
1. Pre Flight Planning, strategic avoidance
2. Flight Watch or Flight Following, tactical avoidance
3. Airborne Weather Radar, the last line of defence

1st and 2nd are key components of OCS

Pre-flight planning to avoid bad weather is ideal, but not always possible:
. Inaccurate forecasts or rapidly evolving weather.
. Inadequate planning techniques they are often automated.
. Lack of flexibility
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

18

OCS: Flight watch

The second line of defence.
Flight watch requires a ground-based flight dispatcher to
follow the progress of a flight.
Dispatchers can see over-the-horizon, giving a view of
weather threats across the whole flightpath - not just that
seen by the flight crew.
Crew are notified of threats so that avoiding action
can be taken.
Flight watch may have prevented many weather-related incidents,
eg: SQ836 (2015), AF447 (2009), U27103 (2015)

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

19

OCS: Flight watch and Training

Flight watch is a significant benefit to flight safety, especially for long haul flights
Flight Watch is mandatory in the USA but not in Europe
EASA say their regulations - ORO.GEN.110(c) - do not imply a requirement for licensed flight
dispatchers or a flight watch system.
How to comply with Continue and Terminate or Divert a flight flight watch?
Personnel training: In the USA flight dispatchers must gain follow a specific training
syllabus, not so in Europe.
EASA only requires dispatchers to receive training that is
based on relevant parts of ICAO Doc 7192 training Manual, Part D-3.
This produces non-standard training and relies on an 18 year-old document.
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

20

OCS: Conclusions
Proper avoidance of adverse weather requires consideration both pre-flight and in-flight.
Pilots should not be expected to act on information from non-qualified and poorlytrained personnel
EASA should make Flight watch a regulatory requirement for all European operators
EASA should adopt the FAA system of licensed flight dispatchers
As a demonstration, how easy is it to plan a flight without any training?
You can try for yourselves after this presentation.

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

21

Tactical weather avoidance: The radar

The last line of defence is the weather radar, used directly by the pilots.

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

22

Aircraft weather radar use and training

Modern commercial aircraft are fitted with weather radar

Crew receive theoretical instruction at flying school

Crew receive further instruction during line training

Simulators not always able to replicate weather radar use

No requirement for refresher training

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

23

Low altitude scanning of wet part of storm

cloud

Normal radar use

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

24

Low altitude saturated radar display

Incorrect radar use

Need to adjust the gain
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

25

Low altitude unsaturated radar display

Correct radar use

Gain is now adjusted
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

26

High altitude scanning of wet part of storm

cloud

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar works well for wet

part
Storm shows
Radar Training
Suggestions up well

27

High altitude scanning of icy part of storm cloud

Radar less good for ice part

Difficult to see the storm
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

28

Radar attenuation

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Big storm hides what is

behind
Flying into
the unknown
Radar Training
Suggestions

29

Radar example

30

Weather Radar: Conclusions

The standard of basic training should be improved

Weather radar training should be provided through

dedicated software packages

Recurrent training should be required

Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

31

Suggestions
Regulations governing commercial flights in Europe/UK are lacking:
Flight watch should be mandatory.
Dispatchers should be licensed under a standard system.
Pilot training regarding weather radar should be improved.
A dedicated radar training package should be available.
Regulations should keep-pace with latest knowledge.
Introduction

Weather Hazards

Operational Control

Radar Training

Suggestions

32

Comments and questions?