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You are on page 1of 59

**Risk and Return
**

Basic return and risk concepts for 1 security

Portfolio (market) risk and return

Stand-alone risk and return

Risk aversion, utility and indifference curves

Markowitz portfolio theory

Capital market theory: Relationship between risk and return:

CAPM/SML

Market model, characteristic line and the diversification

Arbitrage pricing theory

Fama-French 3-factor model

4-2

Introduction

Presence of risk means more than one outcome is possible.

Risk is present virtually in all decisions involving uncertain CF.

Production mgr in selecting equipment

Marketing mgr in deciding advertising campaign

Finance mgr in selecting portfolio of securities

Assessing risks and incorporating the same in final decision is

integral part of financial analysis.

Objective is not avoid or eliminate risk

Determine whether it is worth bearing it

Measure the risk characterizing the future CF

Use an appropriate RADR to convert them into PV

You need an explicit and quantitative understanding of risk

and return and the Nature of relationship between them

4-3

**6.1 What are investment returns?
**

You would spend money today with expectation of earning

even more money in future.

Investment returns measure the financial results of an

investment.

Returns may be historical or prospective (anticipated).

Returns can be expressed in:

Dollar terms. (Profit /Loss)

investments and timing of CF

Percentage terms.

Standardizes the return

Problems of scale of

4-4

**What is investment risk?
**

Typically, invt. returns are not known with certainty.

Prices and returns take various possible values

Likelihood of these possible returns can vary

You should think in terms of probability disbn.

The possible outcomes must be ME and CE

The probability assigned to an outcome varies b/w 0 - 1

Sum of probabilities assigned to outcomes is 1

** Investment risk pertains to the probability of earning
**

a return less than that expected. Dispersion of RV.

The greater the chance of a return far below the

expected return, the greater the risk.

4-5

**Calculate the expected rate of return
**

on each alternative.

^

r = expected rate of return.

r =

n

rP .

i i

i=1

4-6 What is the standard deviation of returns for each alternative? Standard deviation Variance n i 1 2 ri r Pi . 2 .

If the utility of money is represented by a quadratic function ( a function commonly suggested to represent diminishing utility of wealth). Both Mean and SD are measured in same units they can be directly compared. the lesser its effect on SD. Rationale for SD as a measure of risk If variable is normally distributed. then expected utility is a function of mean and SD SD is analytically more tractable . its Mean and SD contain all the information about its Probability Distribution.4-7 Why Standard Deviation? Features of SD The differences are squared values which are far away have a much more effect Squared differences are multiplied by the pblty smaller the pblty.

E(W)]2 + (1-p) [W2 .000 .4-8 Risk .176.4(80=122)2 = 1.Uncertain Outcomes p = .6 W1 = 150 Profit = 50 W = 100 1-p = .4(80) = 122 2 = p[W1 .6 (150-122)2 + .E(W)]2 = .4 W2 = 80 Profit = -20 E(W) = pW1 + (1-p)W2 = 6 (150) + .

4-9 Risky Investments with Risk-Free Risky Inv.6 1-p = . 100 p = .4 Risk Free T-bills Risk Premium = 17 W1 = 150 Profit = 50 W2 = 80 Profit = -20 Profit = 5 .

4 .10 Risk Aversion & Utility Investor’s view of risk Risk Averse Risk Neutral Risk Seeking Utility Utility Function U = E ( r ) ..005 A 2 A measures the degree of risk aversion .

22 T-bill = 5% .4 .22 .005 A (34%) 2 Risk Aversion A High Low Value 5 -6..005 A = 2 ..90 3 4.11 Risk Aversion and Value: U = E ( r ) .66 1 16.

4 .12 Dominance Principle Expected Return 4 2 3 1 Variance or Standard Deviation • 2 dominates 1. has a higher return • 2 dominates 3. has a lower risk • 4 dominates 3. has a higher return .

Example Exp Ret St Deviation U=E ( r ) .0 2 25 33.9 2 .13 Utility and Indifference Curves Represent an investor’s willingness to trade-off return and risk.005A 2 10 20.4 ..5 2 20 30.0 2 15 25.

4 .14 Indifference Curves Expected Return Increasing Utility Standard Deviation .

Coefficient of variation is an alternative measure of stand-alone risk. are approximately normally distributed. .4 . PDs are commonly regarded as continuous. even though they may actually be discrete. Standard deviation measures the stand-alone risk of an investment. at least over short time intervals. Probabilities are assigned to intervals b/w two points on a continuous curve • What is the pblty that return is 10%-20%? It appears that stock returns.15 Continuous Probability Distributions In finance.

16 Skewness and Kurtosis of PD Skewness characterizes the degree of asymmetry of a distribution around its mean.4 . Positive kurtosis relatively peaked PD Negative Kurtosis relatively flat PD . Positive skewness indicates a distribution with an asymmetric tail extending toward more positive values Negative skewness indicates a distribution with an asymmetric tail extending toward more negative values Kurtosis characterizes the relative peakedness of flatness of a distribution compared to the normal distribution.

6)(0.7)(0.72 (0.17 Portfolio Risk and Return: 2 stocks ^ rp is a weighted average: n ^ ^ rp = wiri i=1 p WA2 2A (1 WA )2 2B 2WA (1 WA ) AB A B 0.32 (0.4 .2)( 0.320 .4) 0.22 ) 0.3)( 0.42 ) 2(0.

but ^rp would remain relatively constant.19 What would happen to the risk of an average 1-stock portfolio as more randomly selected stocks were added? p would decrease because the added stocks would not be perfectly correlated. .4 .

000+ # Stocks in Portfolio . p 20 Market Risk 0 10 20 30 40 2.20 Relationship b/w Diversification & risk p (%) Company Specific (Diversifiable) Risk 35 Stand-Alone Risk.4 .

spending. Market risk is also called as systematic risk. . IR structure. inflation etc.4 .21 Stand-alone Market Diversifiable = risk + . money supply. Attributable to economy-wide factors such as GNP growth. Govt. risk risk Market risk is that part of a security’s standalone risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification.

labor strike. . etc. or diversifiable.22 Stand-alone Market Diversifiable = risk + . Unique risk. emergence of new competitor.4 . •Stems from firm-specific factors like new product devpt. •Averages out across the securities Stand-alone risk is also called as total risk. risk risk Firm-specific. risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by diversification.

. so prices and returns reflect this lower risk.4 . Rational investors will minimize risk by holding portfolios. The one-stock investor bears higher (stand-alone) risk.23 Can an investor holding one stock earn a return commensurate with its risk? No. so the return is less than that required by the risk. They bear only market risk.

For stock i. is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall riskiness of the portfolio. It is measured by a stock’s beta coefficient.24 How is market risk measured for individual securities? Market risk.4 . which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified portfolios. its beta is: bi = ( iM i) / M .

5 1.0 1.25 Impact of Inflation Change on SML Required Rate of Return r (%) I = 3% New SML SML2 SML1 18 15 Original situation 11 8 0 0.4 .0 .5 2.

bi .0 Risk.26 Impact of Risk Aversion Change Required Rate of Return (%) After increase in risk aversion SML2 rM = 18% rM = 15% SML1 18 15 RPM = 3% 8 Original situation 1.4 .

E (r ) P( s )r ( s ) s Rule 2 : The variance of an asset’s return is the expected value of the squared deviations from the expected return.27 Summary Rule 1 (Expected Return) : The return for an asset is the probability weighted average return in all scenarios. 2 s P( s )[r ( s ) E (r )] 2 .4 .

4 .28 Summary Rule 3: The rate of return on a portfolio is a weighted average of the rates of return of each asset comprising the portfolio. rp = W1r1 + W2r2 W1 = Proportion of funds in Security 1 W2 = Proportion of funds in Security 2 r1 = Expected return on Security 1 r2 = Expected return on Security 2 . with the portfolio proportions as weights.

4 .29 Portfolio Risk with Risk-Free Asset Rule 4: When a risky asset is combined with a risk-free asset. the portfolio standard deviation equals the risky asset’s standard deviation multiplied by the portfolio proportion invested in the risky asset. p wriskyasset riskyasset .

30 Portfolio Risk Rule 5: When two risky assets with variances 12 and 22. respectively. are combined into a portfolio with portfolio weights w 1 and w2.4 . the portfolio variance is given by: p 2 = w12 12 + w22 22 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2) Cov(r1r2) = Covariance of returns for Security 1 and Security 2 . respectively.

4 .31 Summary Principle of risk diversification in a portfolio Total risk = Sys risk + unsys risk Estimation of required return (SML) ri = rRF + (RPM)bi .

An efficient portfolio is one that offers: the most return for a given amount of risk. or the least risk for a give amount of return. The collection of efficient portfolios is called the efficient set or efficient frontier. The feasible set of portfolios represents all portfolios that can be constructed from a given set of stocks.4 .32 Markowitz portfolio theory Infinite number of portfolios can be formed from 2 or more securities. Efficient Frontier (EF) is represented by heavy darkline Portfolios along curve EF dominate all other invt possibilities Portfolio F is the only portfolio that is likely a 1-asset portfolio Curvature of EF depends on correlations of asset returns EF is convex towards E(r) as –1 < correlations < 1 .

33 Markowitz portfolio theory Assumptions The investor seeks to maximize expected utility of total wealth All investors have the same expected singleperiod investment horizon Investors are risk-averse Investors base their decisions on the Expected return and standard deviation.4 . Perfect markets are assumed • No taxes and transaction costs .

p .34 Efficient Set Feasible Set Feasible and Efficient Portfolios Risk. rp 4 .Expected Portfolio Return.

They differ among investors because of differences in risk aversion. . An investor’s optimal portfolio is defined by the tangency point between the efficient set and the investor’s indifference curve.35 Indifference curves reflect an investor’s attitude toward risk as reflected in his or her risk/return tradeoff function.4 .

Expected Return. rp 4 .36 IB2 I B 1 IA2 IA1 Optimal Portfolio Investor B Optimal Portfolio Investor A Optimal Portfolios Risk p .

37 Markowitz portfolio theory Implications Investor hold a portfolio along the efficient frontier Exact location depends on investor’s risk-return preference • A set of indifference curves for each investor will show his or her risk-return trade-off • More risk-averse investors chose a portfolio along lower-end of EF The chosen portfolio is optimal because no other portfolio along EF can dominate another in terms of risk and return.4 . .

It is based on the premise that only one factor affects risk.4 . What is that factor? .38 Capital market theory The CAPM is an equilibrium model that specifies the relationship between risk and required rate of return for assets held in well-diversified portfolios.

Investors all think in terms of a single holding period All investors have identical / homogenous expectations (idealized uncertainty) Investors can borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the risk-free rate stated differently.4 .39 What are the assumptions of the CAPM? Individuals are risk averse They seek to maximize expected utility of their portfolio over a single period planning horizon. Var(R) = 0 .

that is. investors’ buying and selling won’t influence stock prices. No inflation exists Capital markets are in equilibrium. All assets are perfectly divisible The market is competitive All investors are price takers. Quantities of all assets are given and fixed. .4 .40 What are the assumptions of the CAPM? The market is perfect: There are no taxes and no transactions costs.

the tangency point between the line and the old efficient set.4 . .41 What impact does rRF have on the efficient frontier? When a risk-free asset is added to the feasible set. becomes the new efficient frontier. investors can create portfolios that combine this asset with a portfolio of risky assets. The straight line connecting rRF with M.

42 Efficient Set with a Risk-Free Asset Expected Return. . B A .4 . M The Capital Market Line (CML): New Efficient Set Risk. p . rp Z M ^r M rRF .

Portfolios below the CML are inferior. . All investors will choose a portfolio on the CML. It is all linear combinations of the risk-free asset and Portfolio M.43 What is the Capital Market Line? The new efficient frontier is the CML.4 . The CML defines the new efficient set.

44 The CML Equation ^ rp = rRF + Intercept ^ rM .rRF M Slope p.4 . Risk measure .

45 What does the CML tell us? The expected rate of return on any efficient portfolio is equal to the risk-free rate plus a risk premium. . The optimal portfolio for any investor is the point of tangency between the CML and the investor’s indifference curves.4 .

46 Expected Return. . rp CML I2 ^r M ^r R I1 .4 . p . M R R = Optimal Portfolio rRF R M Risk.

4 . unsystematic risk approaches zero Market-related systematic risk can’t be reduced .47 Simple diversification reduces risk This is the random selection of securities that are added to a portfolio As more and more are added.

rm)/ Var(rm) .4 . • Normally characteristic line is written as ri = ai + bi rm • Ai and bi are called as alpha and beta of the security • Beta = Cov(ri.48 Characteristic Line Systematic risk can be measured statistically by using the OLS simple regression analysis A financial model called Characteristic Line is used to measure both systematic risk and unsystematic risk rit = ai + bi rmt + eit The above is also called as Market model OLS regressions are formulated so that the error term will average out to zero.

bi.49 What is the Security Market Line (SML)? The CML gives the risk/return relationship for efficient portfolios. The Security Market Line (SML). The measure of risk used in the SML is the beta coefficient of company i. also part of the CAPM. The SML equation: ri = rRF + (RPM) bi .4 . gives the risk/return relationship for individual stocks.

0.0. Most stocks have betas in the range of 0. stock is less risky than average.0. If beta > 1. stock is average risk.5 to 1. If beta < 1.5.4 .50 If beta = 1. . stock is riskier than average.

j M e2 = variance of error term j = diversifiable risk of Stock j. . j M j j 2 = variance = stand-alone risk of Stock j.4 . and diversifiable risk? 2 j = b2 2 + e2. market. b2 2 = market risk of Stock j.51 What is the relationship between standalone.

52 What are our conclusions regarding the CAPM? It is impossible to verify. the SML may not produce a correct estimate of ri. Investors seem to be concerned with both market risk and stand-alone risk. but it still provides a good framework for thinking about risk and return. Recent studies have questioned its validity. Other models are being developed that will one day replace the CAPM. CAPM/SML concepts are based on expectations.4 . . Therefore. yet betas are calculated using historical data. A company’s historical data may not reflect investors’ expectations about future riskiness.

.53 What is the difference between the CAPM and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)? The CAPM is a single factor model. The APT proposes that the relationship between risk and return is more complex and may be due to multiple factors such as GDP growth. The foundation for APT is the law of one price if two identical goods are sold at differing prices. expected inflation. and dividend yield. tax rate changes. then one could engage in arbitrage to make riskless profit Arbitrage causes prices to be revised to ensure same expected return.4 .

.54 Arbitrage pricing for one risk factor E(ri) = 0 + 1 bi Provides the arbitrage pricing line for one risk factor where E(ri) is expected return on the security 0 is the return for a zero-beta portfolio bi is the sensitivity of ith asset to the risk factor 1 is the factor’s risk premium The above one factor model is equivalent to the CAPM where 0 is equivalent to the risk-free rate.4 .

55 The assumptions of the CAPM and APT models are different Both models assume investors Prefer more wealth to less wealth Are risk averse Have homogenous expectations. APT does not assume the following A one-period investment horizon Returns are normally distributed A particular type of utility function A market portfolio. or That the investors can borrow or lend at risk-free rate One factor unique to APT is that unrestricted short selling exists.4 . . and The capital markets are perfect However.

only systematic risk has the pricing implications. As with CAPM. .56 2-factor APT E(ri) = 0 + 1 bi1 + 2 bi2 The above 2-factor model describes the returns where E(ri) is expected return on the security 0 is the return for a zero-beta portfolio bi2 is the factor beta coefficient for factor 2 2 is the risk premium associated with factor 2 Factor 1 and factor 2 are uncorrelated.4 .

rj = required rate of return on a portfolio sensitive only to economic Factor j. + (rj . bj = sensitivity of Stock i to economic Factor j..57 Multi-factor Arbitrage pricing ri = rRF + (r1 ..4 . .rRF)bj.rRF)b1 + (r2 .rRF)b2 + .

58 Multi-factor Arbitrage pricing The APT does not tell us how many factors we should have or what they might be.4 . This is something that shall be determined through empirical research Roll and Ross (1984) reports the following risk factors Unanticipated changes in inflation Unanticipated changes in industrial production Unanticipated changes in risk premium (difference between the low-grade bonds and high-grade bonds) Unanticipated changes in the slope of the yield curve Other researchers have reported more and different risk factors .

More research on risk and return models is needed to find a model that is theoretically sound.59 What is the status of the APT? The APT is being used for some real world applications. Its acceptance has been slow because the model does not specify what factors influence stock returns. . empirically verified.4 . and easy to use.

S. the return on. for S minus B. a portfolio of firms with low book-to-market ratios. rM-rRF. a portfolio of small firms (where size is based on the market value of equity) minus the return on B. for H minus L. This return is called rSMB. the return on. . a portfolio of firms with high book-to-market ratios (using market equity and book equity) minus the return on L. This return is called rHML. a portfolio of big firms.4 .60 Fama-French 3-Factor Model Fama and French propose three factors: The excess market return. H.

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