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Demographic features of

indian population,size and


growth of population and
economic development.
Problem of over population ,
population policy

THE THREE STAGES OF


DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
According to neo-Malthusians, population problem is an
inevitable result of the reproductive behaviour of man .
However, the theory of Demographic Transition rejects
this.
According to the Theory of Demographic Transition, every
country passes through three stages of demographic
transition. These stages are empricially verifiable.

First Stage:
In first stage, both birth and death rates are high . Hence, the
population remains more or less stable.
HIGH MORTALITY RATE

HIGH BIRTH RATE

For example, children contribute at an early age to


agrarian production and are traditional source of security
in the old age of parents
In the first stage of demographic transition, high birth
rate is matched by an equally high death rate, and thus,
population remains stable over a long period.

Second Stage
The Second Stage of demographic transition is characterised by rapid
growth of population because despite substantial reduction in the
mortality rate there is no corresponding decline in the birth rate.
REDUCTION IN MORTALITY RATE

Government makes special efforts to check smallpox, malaria, cholera,


plague etc bring down the mortality rate.
HIGH BIRTH RATE
As soon as society remains agrarian and the education remains confined to
a narrow section of the society, attitude of the family towards the size of
the family does not change and the birth rate remains high. In this
situation population increases at a alarming rate.

In a country where economy has not grown adequately for a long


time and a sizable section of population has remained below the
poverty line, this is really a grave situation . Economists call in
population explosion.

Third Stage:

SIZE AND GROWTH OF POPULATION


SIZE OF POPULATION
In terms of population India ranks second in the world next to
China.
Indias landscape is just 2.4 percent of the total world area whereas
its population is nearly 17.5 percent of the world population.
The national income of India is presently even less than 1.2 percent
of the total world income.
Indias population according to the census of 2011 is 121.09 crore .
According to the census of 1901 the population of the country was
23.83 crore. Since than in a period of 110 yrs the population of the
country has increased by more than 97 crore.

Current
year

Population in
crore

1901

23.83

1951

36.11

1961

Decadal growth Average annual


(percent)
growth rate
(percent)
---------

Density of
population
(per sq. km)

0.18

77

13.31

1.25

117

43.92

21.64

1.96

142

1971

54.82

24.80

2.20

177

1981

68.33

24.66

2.22

216

1991

84.64

23.87

2.16

267

2001

102.87

21.54

1.97

325

2011

121.09

17.72

1.64

382

RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH


1950s :- There has been rapid decline in the mortality rate due to

improved medical facilities. So growth rate of population was 1.25


percent.
1951-1961 :- The planning commission and the census
commissioner had envisaged a continuation of 1941-51 trend in
1951-61 . So the population growth turned out to be 1.96 percent.
1961-1971 :- The rate of population growth was 2.20 percent per
annum.
1981-1991 :- The rate of population growth was 2.16 percent
which was more less same as 1960s-1970s population growth
rate . Thus the expectations that the rate of population growth
would decline significantly in responses to the family planning
programme of the government did not come true .

Registrar Generals population projections said that population


growth rate will decline by 1.84 percent during 1990s, these
projection turned out to be incorrect.
2001 :- The growth rate of population remained as high as 1.97
percent per annum.
2001-2011 :- The growth rate of population has come down to
1.64 percent per annum.

BIRTH AND DEATH RATE


From 1951 to 2013 there was only some decline in the
birth rate . However death rate declined significantly.

From 1901 to 1921 birth rate and death rate were almost equal .
That is why population did not rise in this period.
In the second decade of 20th century infant mortality rate was
218 per 1000 lives births, whereas in 2013 it was 40 per 1000
live births . Small pox which took heavy toll of lives has been
completely eradicated . Other child diseases have also being
checked and thus infant mortality rate has come down .
Death rate brought down due to improved medical facilities.
During the last six decades, in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerela,
Goa the birth rate decline significantly . Due to socio-economic
conditions the birth rate still remain high in other states.

Population growth and


economic development
In India, the existing population is an
obstacle to economic development,
considering the available utilisable resources
and the level of technological progress.
However, there are certain economist who
argue the population growth is not an
obstacle.

POPULATION GROWTH IS AN OBSTACLE


In India some of the gains of economic growth have
been wasted on supporting the growing population.
If India's population growth had been modest ,the
countrys development performance would have
looked far more impressive.
The rapid population growth adversely affect the
employment situations ,standard of living etc.

REASONS FOR WHICH POPULATION GROWTH IS REGARDED


AS AN OBSTACLE TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT :

POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DECLINING LAND-MAN RATIO

In the first place , it is asserted that the pressure of population on


land has been steadily increasing and with it land- man ratio is
becoming increasingly adverse.
According to 2011 census, the density of population in the country is
382 per sq.km. as against 117 per sq.km.
This increase in density of population is an alarming situation.
Due to rapid growth of population over the years , its pressure on
agriculture land has increased and cultivable land per capita has
declined.

The growing pressure of population on land has also


resulted in sub- division and fragmentation of holdings.
On these fragmented holdings, there is not much scope
for raising the farmer productivity.

ADVERSE IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT


SITUATIONS
The rapidly increasing population of the
developing country has resulted in large-scale
unemployment.
Because of the failure of the secondary and
tertiary sectors to expand employment
opportunities at a fast rate , more and more
people have to fall back on agriculture to eke out
of living.
This lead to disguised unemployment.

ADVERSE IMPACT ON PER CAPITA


INCOME AND STANDARD OF LIVING
Rapid growth of population in the developing countries has made it
difficult to raise the level of per capita income and the standard of
living of masses.
The pressure of population on land has increased leading, in turn, to
low agricultural productivity and large scale disguised unemployment.
Hence it will result in low per capita income and low standard of
living.
Due to rapid growth of population the aim of self reliance can not not
be achieved .

SHORTAGE AND IMPORT OF FOOD


GRAINS
Because of the rising population , the demand for food in

many developing countries is increasing rapidly.


However because of low agricultural productivity the
supply of food grains has failed to keep pace with their
increasing demand.
This will lead to serious food crisis.
This has forced the developing countries to resort to large
scale imports of food grains off and on.
Sometimes it leads to serious balance of payments crisis
due to more imports and less exports.

ADVERSE EFFECT OF FEEDING


GROWING POPULATION
With rapidly growing population , it become necessary for the
government to arrange for adequate surplus of food grains for
growing masses.
The price incentives have to be provided to farmers to encourage
them to produce more.
At the same time it become necessary to provide ample quantity
of food grains at low prices to a large number of people whose
incomes are very low.
As a result the burden of food subsidy increases to very high level
and the resources that could have been used for increasing
production and productivity level in the economy are used up
just to provide for the consumption need of the population..

PREVENTS CHANGE IN OCCUPATIONAL


DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
Rapid population growth prevents change in occupational
distribution of population in a backward economy.
Since most low income economies can not afford to risk large-scale
unemployment , rapid population growth in these countries
postpones the transformation of traditional economy into one
dominated by manufacturing sector.
This is not only because of the agricultural requirement of growing
numbers, but also because of the relative investment costs of job
creation in agriculture and manufacturing.

POPULATION GROWTH IS NOT AN


OBSTACLE

Some economist argue that the


population growth is not an obstacle to
economic growth.

The propositions put forward by the economists who


argue that population growth is not an obstacle to
economic development are :
THE PROBLEM IS NOT POPULATION GROWTH BUT , RATHER,
OTHER ISSUES
Some economists argue that the real problem is underdevelopment and not the

population growth .
Some economist argue that the developed countries having one-fourth of worlds
population consume almost 80% of the world resources.
Therefore, an average consumer of the developed countries uses up almost sixteen
times as much of the worlds food , energy and material resources .
The low level of living in the developing countries are due to over consumption by
rich countries .
Therefore it is the rich nation who need to curb their overconsumption.
Hence the consumption habit in rich countries is the problem, and not the population
growth.

FALSE ISSUE DELIBERATELY CREATED BY


DOMINANT RICH- COUNTRY
Population growth is an false issue created by dominant
rich country agencies and institution to keep the less
developed countries in their underdeveloped , dependent
conditions .
By blaming the poor countries for their own poverty , the
rich nations get an easy escape for their own misdeeds
and imperialist policies which have been responsible
historically , to a large extent, for the underdevelopment
of the poor countries.

POPULATION GROWTH IS
DESIRABLE
For many developing countries and regions population
growth is desirable.
A number of countries in Africa and Latin America have
small population. It is under population that is holding
back growth because it leads to non utilization of
cultivable land, low demand for industrial goods resulting
in low industrial production etc.
Hence in those countries development has been held back
due to deficiency of aggregate demand.

PROBLEM OF OVER
POPULATION

POPULATION POLICY