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10 FAQ’s

(Frequently Asked Questions)


About Wind Energy Integration
…and Answers
State of the Electric
Industry
Missouri Public Service
Commission
August 24, 2009

Michael Milligan
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, Colorado USA

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
10 FAQ’s about Wind

1) How much wind is currently installed


in the US?
2) What are the benefits of wind energy
to the power system?
3) How can wind’s variability be
incorporated into power system
operations
4) Does wind plant output start/stop
suddenly?
5) Can wind be predicted?
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10 FAQ’s about Wind

6) Can the power system be reliably


operated with wind energy?
7) Does wind need backup or storage?
8) Is there a limit to how much wind can
be accommodated on the grid?
9) Can wind power plants be controlled?
10)Can wind energy make effective use
of transmission lines?
11)Bonus Question: How can more wind
be accommodated on the grid?
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Where do the Answers Come From?
• Extensive analysis
– Power system simulations that mimic real-time
operations
– Statistical analysis of wind and load data
– Experience operating power systems with wind
• International Energy Agency Task 25 Report:
Design and operation of power systems with large
amounts of wind power State of the art report.
– http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/workingpapers/2007/W82.pdf
• Utility Wind Integration Group www.uwig.org
• NREL Systems Integration
– http://www.nrel.gov/wind/systemsintegration/
– http://www.nrel.gov/publications

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1) How much wind is currently installed in the US?

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1) How much wind is currently installed in the US?

Colorado/Xcel: Iowa: Approx 18%


Approx 20% wind wind penetration
penetration (wind (wind energy/annual
capacity/system peak) demand, est. 2009)

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1b) How much wind is currently installed in Europe?

MW Installed End 2006 Installed 2007 End 2007

Total EU-12 419 263 675

Total EU-15 47,651 8,291 55,860

Total EU-27 48,069 8,554 56,535

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2) What are the benefits of wind energy to the
power system?

• Wind energy displaces


– Fuel
– Emissions; carbon
• Wind provides a hedge
against rising fuel prices
(natural gas, coal)
• Wind is an energy source
with limited capacity
contribution  other
generation is also required
• Wind can be cost-
competitive with other
forms of generation and
may reduce electricity cost
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3) How can wind’s variability be
incorporated into power system operations?

15 Turbines Stdev = 1.21, Stdev/Mean = .184


200 Turbines Stdev = 14.89, Stdev/Mean = .126
215 Turbines Stdev = 15.63, Stdev/Mean = .125
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
Output Normalized to Mean

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30x10
Seconds

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(Approximately 8 hours)
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3) How can wind’s variability be incorporated into
power system operations?
• Electric load (without wind) varies considerably
• Power system operating practices are built around
meeting the variable load with dispatchable generators
that can change their output level
• Wind adds more variability to the system
• Existing operating practice can be used/expanded
upon with wind

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3) How can wind’s variability be incorporated into
power system operations?

3
14x10 6,600 Hours of 5-minute Electric Load and Wind

12

Lo

Load (MW)
10

5-minute changes
3
1000
500

14x10
0
-500
-1000
0

5-Minute Periods for Approximately 9 Months

• Minnesota 25% wind energy penetration (by energy)


12
causes an increase in variability that must be met by
power system operators and the non-wind generation fleet
• 5-minute variability does not increase as much as
variability over 10’s of minutes to a few hours
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Comparison of Cost-Based Integration Studies

* 3-year average; total is non-market cost


** highest integration cost of 3 years; 30.7% capacity penetration corresponding to 25% energy penetration;
24.7% capacity penetration at 20% energy penetration
*** found $4.37/MWh reduction in UC cost when wind forecasting is used in UC decision
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4) Can wind power start and stop suddenly?

• Large wind farms


2500
Tot al W IND

Total W IND

have many individual 2000

wind turbines 1500

• The turbines are 1000

spread over many 500

miles and do not 0


2/2 4/0 7 9:00 2/24/0 7 9 :28 2/24/07 9:57
2 Hours
2/24/07 10:26 2/ 24/07 10:55 2/24/07 11:24 2/24/07 11:52 2/24/07 12:21 2/24/07 12:50

experience the same


wind at the same
time
• TX event Feb 24,
2007: drop of 1,500
MW over 2 hours is
similar to behavior of
load www.osei.noaa.gov

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5) Can wind be predicted?

• Wind forecasts
are derived
from weather
prediction
models
• Wind forecast
accuracy is
improving
• Several wind
forecasting
firms in U.S.
Courtesy: WindLogics, Inc. St. Paul, MN

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Are wind forecasts being used?
• Forecasts must be tuned to the needs of the system
operator and integrated in control room
• Forecasts of potentially large ramp events?
• High-wind warning systems?
• Aggregate wind forecast error is reduced with large
geographic aggregation
• Geographic dispersion can reduce forecast errors by
30-50% (WindLogics, UWIG Forecasting Workshop, Feb 2008)

Mean Absolute Error (Percent)


Next day hourly wind power forecast 10-14% of rated capacity
Next day total energy forecast 20% of energy delivered
Next 2-3 hour power schedule 5-7% of rated capacity

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Wind Forecasts in the Control Room

• UWIG/WindLogics RDF
• Xcel/CO

http://www.ercot.com/meetings/ros/keydocs/2008/0313/07._ERCOT_OPERATIONS_REPORT_EECP022608_pub

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6) Can the power system be reliably operated with
wind energy?
• Yes – additional flexible generation (operating reserves)
may be necessary at higher wind penetrations
• This additional operating reserve has a modest cost,
typically about 10% of the cost of the wind energy itself
• Graph shows this level of operating reserve (blue) is a
relatively small, varying fraction of wind generation
• Split between spinning and non-spinning reserves

EnerNex: Minnesota 20% Wind study


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7) Does wind need backup or storage?
• Increased operating reserves may be
necessary, but not dedicated backup
• Although new storage has value, it may
not be cost effective
• There is typically already storage on the
system
– Natural gas in the pipeline or storage
facility
– Controllable hydro
• A recent study by Xcel Energy in
Colorado found
– existing pumped storage provided
$1.30/MWh offset to wind integration
cost
– Enlarging existing gas storage facility EnerNex: Xcel Colorado
was economic at large wind penetration Wind Integration Study

Wind Penetration 10% 15%

$/ MWH Gas Impact No Storage Benefits $2.17 $2.52


$ / M WH Gas Impact With Storage Benefits $1.26 $1.45
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8) Is there a limit to how much wind can be
accommodated on the grid?

• Current studies in the


U.S. have analyzed up
to 25% of all electric
energy from wind
• Based on work done so
far, the question is not
whether wind can be
accommodated at high
penetrations, the
question is how and at
what cost of integration

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8) Is there a limit to how much wind can be
accommodated on the grid?
Recent International Energy Agency Report:

Design and operation of power systems with


large amounts of wind power

International Energy Agency Report: Wind Integration Studies

100
90
Percent Penetration

80
70
60
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Peak Energy

http://www.uwig.org/IEA_Annex25-State_of_the_Art_Report.pdf Denmark has access to large export markets


Lennart Söder,KTH, Sweden, presented at UWIG,
Oct 23-25, 2006

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9) Can wind power plants be controlled?
• New low-voltage ride-through (LVRT) grid codes in the U.S. will
help wind turbines contribute to grid reliability
• Wind turbines can be controlled but not to the extent that
conventional generation can be controlled
– Ramp rate limits
– Up-regulation (operate below potential so that wind output can be
increased if needed) [Kirby and Milligan, forthcoming]
– Curtailment, if necessary and economic, at low-load/high-wind
conditions

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10) Can wind energy make effective use of
transmission lines?

• Conditional-firm
transmission tariff (recent
FERC ruling)
• Wind does not need
transmission all of the
time
• Most transmission paths
have some open capacity
most of the time
• Adding wind can result in
more efficient usage of
existing transmission

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11) Bonus: How can more wind be accommodated
on the grid?
• Utility balancing areas
can combine or Operating separate balancing areas causes
extra ramping compared to combined operations.

cooperate – large
1000
Blue: up-ramp
Green: down-ramp
500

electricity markets
Yellow: combined ramp

Ramp (MW/hr)
0

• Example: Ramping, or -500

changing output of -1000


400
Some areas are ramping up nearly 1000 MW/hr
while other areas are ramping down nearly 500 MW/hr

Excess Ramping and Ramp Penalty (MW/hr)


generators that can be
200
0
-200

eliminated with larger -400


Ramping that could be eliminated by combining operations

balancing areas
400
200
0
-200
-400

5280 5286 5292 5298 5304


Hour of Year (one day)

Milligan & Kirby 2007, Impact of Balancing Areas


Size, Obligation Sharing, and Ramping Capability
on Wind Integration .
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41809.pdf

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11) Bonus: How can more wind be accommodated
on the grid?
• Power system operations
practices and wind farm
control/curtailment
• Integration of wind
forecasting and real time
measurements into control
room operations – ongoing
work at ERCOT, AESO
• Coordination between BAs
• Bi-lateral agreement • Responsive load
• Fast scheduling • Hydro dispatch, pumped
• Pseudo-tie or dynamic hydro
schedule
• Longer term: other storage
• Virtual BA (ACE Diversity
Interchange, Joint Initiative) and markets (plug-hybrid
electric vehicles, hydrogen)
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Large-Scale Studies in Process
• Western Wind & Solar Integration Study
– 30% wind + % solar in footprint, 20% in WECC
• Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study,
20-30% in study footprint
Control areas:
APS
El Paso
Nevada Power
PNM
Sierra Pacific
SRP
Tristate
Tucson
Xcel
WAPA

LEGEND
WestConnect Lines
California Lines
LADWP Lines
DC Lines

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Increasing Attention in North America

•IEEE Transactions on Power


Systems (2007)
•IEEE Power Engineering Society
Magazine, November/December
2005
•Updated in 2007 and upcoming
Nov-Dec issue in 2009
•Wind Power Coordinating
Committee Wind Super-Session,
Summer 2008
•Utility Wind Integration Group
(UWIG): Operating Impacts and
Integration Studies User Group
• www.uwig.org

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Discussion (if time/interest)

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Impact of 25% Wind Energy Penetration:
5-minute data

3
3
14x10 6,600 Hours of 5-minute Electric Load 14x10 6,600 Hours of 5-minute Electric Load and Wind

12 12

10

Load (MW)
10
Load (MW)

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

5-minute changes
1000
5-minute changes

1000
500
500
0 0
-500 -500
-1000 -1000
0 0

5-Minute Periods for Approximately 9 Months 5-Minute Periods for Approximately 9 Months

• Ramp requirements increase with 25% wind energy


penetration. The upper panel also shows the
importance of being able to achieve lower minimum
loads by the conventional generation fleet.

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Lower Turn-down is required
3
14x10

12 Load Only
Load and Wind

10

8
MW

0
0
5-Minute Periods for Approximately 9 Months

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Can the non-wind fleet ramp quickly enough?

3200

Energy Price $10/MWh Energy Price Increases


Energy Price $10/MWh
to $90/MWh because
base unit can't ramp
3000 fast enough

Peaking -
$90/MWh
2800

2600

Base Load - $10/MWh

2400
4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM
dat

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Better use of existing flexibility
• Tap into maneuverable 5000%

generation that may be CA ISO PJM WAPA

Measured Fossil Ramping Capacity vs Load Need


42,400 55,600 3,087 MW Peak Load
Generation

“behind the wall”1 4000% 21,900


13,100
4,600
47,000
2,500
13,500
2,911 Fossil (measured)
700 Hydro
0 Nuclear

• Provide a mechanism 3000%


PJM
3,700 600 11 Other
2002 Hourly Data and Generation Capacity

(market, contract, other) 2000% WAPA

that benefits system CA ISO

operator and generator 1000%

• Fast energy markets help 0%


0 2000 4000 6000 8000

provide needed flexibility2 Hours/Year

and can often supply load


following flexibility at no
cost3
1
Kirby & Milligan, 2005 Methodology for Examining Control Area Ramping Capabilities with Implications for Wind
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy05osti/38153.pdf
2
Kirby & Milligan, 2008 Facilitating Wind Development: The Importance of Electric Industry Structure.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/43251.pdf
3
Milligan & Kirby 2007, Impact of Balancing Areas Size, Obligation Sharing, and Ramping Capability on Wind Integration .
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41809.pdf
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Acquire additional flexibility across BAs
• Reduce the need for ramping by combined BAs (real or virtual)
– Ramping capability adds linearly
– Ramping need adds less than linearly

Operating separate balancing areas causes


1000 extra ramping compared to combined operations.

Blue: up-ramp
500 Green: down-ramp
Yellow: combined ramp
Ramp (MW/hr)

-500
Some areas are ramping up nearly 1000 MW/hr
Excess Ramping (MW/hr)

while other areas are ramping down nearly 500 MW/hr


-1000

400 Ramping that could be eliminated by combining operations


200
0
-200
-400

5280 5286 5292 5298 5304


Hour of Year (one day)

Milligan & Kirby 2007, Impact of Balancing Areas Size, Obligation Sharing, and Ramping
Capability on Wind Integration . http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41809.pdf
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BA Consolidation Reduces Ramp Requirements
2000 Combined ramp requirements, Load+Wind
Combined Ramp (MW/hr)

1000

-1000

-2000 Excess ramping required by separate operations


400
200
Excess Ramp (MW/hr)

0
-200
-400

400 Hourly data Excess ramp duration


200
0
-200
-400

0 2000 4000 6000 8000


Hour of Year

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Large, infrequent 5-

Excess Ramp Comparison: Separate vs. Combined Operations


600
This graph shows the difference in excess ramping
requirements between wind and no-wind cases.

Minute Ramps can be 400

significantly reduced 200

E xcess R am p C om parison: S eparate vs. C om bined O p erations


-200

-400 Load and Wind


600 Load Only

-600
400
0 2 4 6 8 10
5-Minute Periods
200

-200

-400 Load and W ind


Load O nly

-600

0 20 0 4 00 600 800 1000


5-M in ute P eriods

Milligan & Kirby 2008, An Analysis of Sub-Hourly Ramping Impacts


of Wind Energy and Balancing Area Size .
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