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You are on page 1of 72

6th Edition

Chapter 12

Simple Regression

Chap 12-1

Chapter Goals

After completing this chapter, you should be

able to:

Explain the correlation coefficient and perform a

hypothesis test for zero population correlation

Explain the simple linear regression model

Obtain and interpret the simple linear regression

equation for a set of data

Describe R2 as a measure of explanatory power of the

regression model

Understand the assumptions behind regression

analysis

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-2

Chapter Goals

(continued)

able to:

Explain measures of variation and determine whether

the independent variable is significant

Calculate and interpret confidence intervals for the

regression coefficients

Use a regression equation for prediction

Form forecast intervals around an estimated Y value

for a given X

Use graphical analysis to recognize potential problems

in regression analysis

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-3

Correlation Analysis

Correlation analysis is used to measure

strength of the association (linear relationship)

between two variables

Correlation is only concerned with strength of the

relationship

No causal effect is implied with correlation

Correlation was first presented in Chapter 3

Chap 12-4

Correlation Analysis

The population correlation coefficient is

denoted (the Greek letter rho)

The sample correlation coefficient is

r

where

s xy

s xy

sxsy

(x x)(y y)

n 1

Chap 12-5

To test the null hypothesis of no linear

association,

H0 : 0

distribution with (n 2 ) degrees of freedom:

r (n 2)

(1 r )

Chap 12-6

Decision Rules

Hypothesis Test for Correlation

Lower-tail test:

Upper-tail test:

Two-tail test:

H0: 0

H1: < 0

H0: 0

H1: > 0

H0: = 0

H1: 0

-t

Where t

r (n 2)

(1 r )

2

/2

-t/2

/2

t/2

or t > tn-2,

has n - 2 d.f.

Chap 12-7

Introduction to

Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is used to:

Predict the value of a dependent variable based on

the value of at least one independent variable

Explain the impact of changes in an independent

variable on the dependent variable

Dependent variable: the variable we wish to explain

(also called the endogenous variable)

the dependent variable

(also called the exogenous variable)

Chap 12-8

The relationship between X and Y is

described by a linear function

Changes in Y are assumed to be caused by

changes in X

Linear regression population equation model

Yi 0 1x i i

Where 0 and 1 are the population model

coefficients and is a random error term.

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-9

Model

The population regression model:

Population

Y intercept

Dependent

Variable

Population

Slope

Coefficient

Independent

Variable

Random

Error

term

Yi 0 1Xi i

Linear component

Random Error

component

Chap 12-10

Model

(continued)

Yi 0 1Xi i

Observed Value

of Y for Xi

Predicted Value

of Y for Xi

Slope = 1

Random Error

for this Xi value

Intercept = 0

Xi

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

X

Chap 12-11

Equation

The simple linear regression equation provides an

estimate of the population regression line

Estimated

(or predicted)

y value for

observation i

Estimate of

the regression

Estimate of the

regression slope

intercept

y i b0 b1x i

Value of x for

observation i

ei ( y i - y i ) y i - (b0 b1x i )

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-12

b0 and b1 are obtained by finding the values

of b0 and b1 that minimize the sum of the

squared differences between y and y :

min SSE min ei2

min (y i y i )2

min [y i (b0 b1x i )]2

Differential calculus is used to obtain the

coefficient estimators b0 and b1 that minimize SSE

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-13

(continued)

n

b1

(x x)(y y)

i 1

x

2

(x

x

)

i

rxy

sY

sX

i 1

b0 y b1x

The regression line always goes through the mean x, y

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-14

Equation

The coefficients b0 and b1 , and other

regression results in this chapter, will be

found using a computer

Hand calculations are tedious

Statistical routines are built into Excel

Other statistical analysis software can be used

Chap 12-15

Assumptions

The true relationship form is linear (Y is a linear function

of X, plus random error)

The error terms, i are independent of the x values

The error terms are random variables with mean 0 and

constant variance, 2

(the constant variance property is called homoscedasticity)

2

E[ i ] 0 and E[ i ] 2

for (i 1, , n)

another, so that

E[ i j ] 0

for all i j

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-16

Interpretation of the

Slope and the Intercept

b0 is the estimated average value of y

when the value of x is zero (if x = 0 is

in the range of observed x values)

average value of y as a result of a

one-unit change in x

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-17

Example

A real estate agent wishes to examine the

relationship between the selling price of a home

and its size (measured in square feet)

A random sample of 10 houses is selected

Dependent variable (Y) = house price in $1000s

Independent variable (X) = square feet

Chap 12-18

Model

House Price in $1000s

(Y)

Square Feet

(X)

245

1400

312

1600

279

1700

308

1875

199

1100

219

1550

405

2350

324

2450

319

1425

255

1700

Chap 12-19

Graphical Presentation

House price model: scatter plot

Chap 12-20

Tools / Data Analysis / Regression

Chap 12-21

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

41.33032

Observations

ANOVA

10

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-22

Graphical Presentation

House price model: scatter plot and

regression line

Slope

= 0.10977

Intercept

= 98.248

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-23

Interpretation of the

Intercept, b0

house price 98.24833 0.10977 (square feet)

b0 is the estimated average value of Y when the

value of X is zero (if X = 0 is in the range of

observed X values)

Here, no houses had 0 square feet, so b0 = 98.24833

just indicates that, for houses within the range of

sizes observed, $98,248.33 is the portion of the

house price not explained by square feet

Chap 12-24

Interpretation of the

Slope Coefficient, b1

house price 98.24833 0.10977 (square feet)

average value of Y as a result of a oneunit change in X

Here, b1 = .10977 tells us that the average value of a

house increases by .10977($1000) = $109.77, on

average, for each additional one square foot of size

Chap 12-25

Measures of Variation

Total variation is made up of two parts:

SST

SSR

SSE

Total Sum of

Squares

Regression Sum

of Squares

Error Sum of

Squares

SST (y i y)2

SSR (y i y)2

SSE (y i y i )2

where:

y = Predicted value of y for the given x value

i

i

Chap 12-26

Measures of Variation

(continued)

Measures the variation of the yi values around their

mean, y

SSR = regression sum of squares

Explained variation attributable to the linear

relationship between x and y

SSE = error sum of squares

Variation attributable to factors other than the linear

relationship between x and y

Chap 12-27

Measures of Variation

(continued)

Y

yi

2

SSE = (yi - yi )

_2

SSR = (yi - y)

_

y

xi

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

_

y

X

Chap 12-28

Coefficient of Determination, R2

The coefficient of determination is the portion

of the total variation in the dependent variable

that is explained by variation in the

independent variable

The coefficient of determination is also called

R-squared and is denoted as R2

SSR regression sum of squares

R

SST

total sum of squares

2

note:

0 R 1

Chap 12-29

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

Y

r2 = 1

r2 = 1

explained by variation in X

r =1

2

between X and Y:

Chap 12-30

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

Y

0 < r2 < 1

between X and Y:

Some but not all of the

variation in Y is explained

by variation in X

X

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-31

Examples of Approximate

r2 Values

r2 = 0

No linear relationship

between X and Y:

r2 = 0

depend on X. (None of the

variation in Y is explained

by variation in X)

Chap 12-32

Excel Output

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

house prices is explained by

variation in square feet

41.33032

Observations

ANOVA

SSR 18934.9348

R

0.58082

SST 32600.5000

2

Regression Statistics

10

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-33

Correlation and R2

The coefficient of determination, R2, for a

simple regression is equal to the simple

correlation squared

R r

2

2

xy

Chap 12-34

Estimation of Model

Error Variance

An estimator for the variance of the population model

error is

n

2

e

i

SSE

s

n2 n2

2

2

e

i1

model uses two estimated parameters, b0 and b1, instead of one

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-35

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

41.33032

Observations

ANOVA

s e 41.33032

10

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-36

se is a measure of the variation of observed y

values from the regression line

Y

small se

large se

of the y values in the sample data

i.e., se = $41.33K is moderately small relative to house prices in

the $200 - $300K range

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-37

Regression Model

The variance of the regression slope coefficient

(b1) is estimated by

2

2

s

s

e

e

s 2b1

2

2

(xi x) (n 1)s x

where:

sb1

SSE

se

n2

Chap 12-38

Excel Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.76211

R Square

0.58082

Adjusted R Square

0.52842

Standard Error

Observations

ANOVA

sb1 0.03297

41.33032

10

df

SS

MS

F

11.0848

Regression

18934.9348

18934.9348

Residual

13665.5652

1708.1957

Total

32600.5000

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Significance F

0.01039

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

Chap 12-39

the Slope

Sb1 is a measure of the variation in the slope of regression

Y

small Sb1

large Sb1

Chap 12-40

t Test

t test for a population slope

Is there a linear relationship between X and Y?

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

(linear relationship does exist)

Test statistic

b1 1

t

sb1

d.f. n 2

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

where:

b1 = regression slope

coefficient

1 = hypothesized slope

sb1 = standard

error of the slope

Chap 12-41

t Test

(continued)

House Price

in $1000s

(y)

Square Feet

(x)

245

1400

312

1600

279

1700

308

1875

199

1100

219

1550

405

2350

324

2450

319

1425

255

1700

house price 98.25 0.1098 (sq.ft.)

Does square footage of the house

affect its sales price?

Chap 12-42

t Test Example

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

b1

Standard Error

sb1

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

b1 1 0.10977 0

t

3.32938

t

sb1

0.03297

Chap 12-43

t Test Example

(continued)

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

d.f. = 10-2 = 8

t8,.025 = 2.3060

/2=.025

Reject H0

/2=.025

Do not reject H0

-tn-2,/2

-2.3060

Reject H0

tn-2,/2

2.3060 3.329

b1

Standard Error

sb1

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

Decision:

Reject H0

Conclusion:

There is sufficient evidence

that square footage affects

house price

Chap 12-44

t Test Example

(continued)

P-value = 0.01039

H0: 1 = 0

H1: 1 0

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

the p-value is

P(t > 3.329)+P(t < -3.329)

= 0.01039

(for 8 d.f.)

P-value

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

Reject H0

Conclusion:

There is sufficient evidence

that square footage affects

house price

Chap 12-45

for the Slope

Confidence Interval Estimate of the Slope:

d.f. = n - 2

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

the slope is (0.0337, 0.1858)

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-46

for the Slope

(continued)

Coefficients

Intercept

Square Feet

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

98.24833

58.03348

1.69296

0.12892

-35.57720

232.07386

0.10977

0.03297

3.32938

0.01039

0.03374

0.18580

$1000s, we are 95% confident that the average

impact on sales price is between $33.70 and

$185.80 per square foot of house size

This 95% confidence interval does not include 0.

Conclusion: There is a significant relationship between

house price and square feet at the .05 level of significance

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-47

Prediction

The regression equation can be used to

predict a value for y, given a particular x

For a specified value, xn+1 , the predicted

value is

y n1 b0 b1x n1

Chap 12-48

Predictions Using

Regression Analysis

Predict the price for a house

with 2000 square feet:

98.25 0.1098(200 0)

317.85

The predicted price for a house with 2000

square feet is 317.85($1,000s) = $317,850

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-49

When using a regression model for prediction,

only predict within the relevant range of data

Relevant data range

Risky to try to

extrapolate far

beyond the range

of observed Xs

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chap 12-50

Extensions to the simple linear model

Models with more than one independent

variable

Y = 0 + 1X1 + 2X2 + + kXk +

where

Y=

dependent variable (response variable)

Xi =

ith independent variable (predictor or explanatory

variable)

0 =

intercept (value of Y when all Xi = 0)

i =

coefficient of the ith independent variable

k=

number of independent variables

=

random error

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 51

To estimate these values, a sample is taken

the following equation developed

Y b0 b1 X1 b2 X 2 ... bk X k

Y

bi =

Where

=

predicted value of Y

b0 = sample intercept (an estimate of 0)

sample coefficient of the ith variable (an estimate

of i)

Education, Inc.

4 52

Develop a model to determine the suggested

listing price for houses based on the size and

age of the house

Y b0 b1 X1 b2 X 2

where

=

predicted value of dependent variable

(selling price)

b0 =

Y intercept

X1 and X2 =

value of the two independent

variables (square footage and age) respectively

b1 and b2 =

slopes for X1 and X2

respectively

a sample of houses

that have sold

Selects

recently and records the data

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 53

TABLE 4.5

SELLING

PRICE ($)

SQUARE

FOOTAGE

AGE

95,000

1,926

30

Good

119,000

2,069

40

Excellent

124,800

1,720

30

Excellent

135,000

1,396

15

Good

142,000

1,706

32

Mint

145,000

1,847

38

Mint

159,000

1,950

27

Mint

165,000

2,323

30

Excellent

182,000

2,285

26

Mint

183,000

3,752

35

Good

200,000

2,300

18

Good

211,000

2,525

17

Good

215,000

3,800

40

Excellent

1,740

12

Mint

Copyright 2015

Pearson

219,000

Education, Inc.

CONDITION

4 54

PROGRAM 4.2A Input Screen for the Jenny Wilson Realty Multiple Regression Example

Education, Inc.

4 55

Program 4.2B Excel Output

Y b0 b1 X1 b2 X 2

146,630.89 43.82X1 2898.69X 2

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 56

Evaluating Multiple

Regression Models

Similar to simple linear regression models

The p-value for the F test and r2 interpreted

the same

The hypothesis is different because there is

more than one independent variable

The F test is investigating whether all the

coefficients are equal to 0 at the same time

Education, Inc.

4 57

Evaluating Multiple

Regression Models

To determine which independent variables are

significant, tests are performed for each

variable

H 0 : 1 0

H1 : 1 0

The test statistic is calculated and if the pvalue is lower than the level of significance

(), the null hypothesis is rejected

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 58

Full model is statistically significant

Useful in predicting selling price

p-value for F test = 0.002

r2 = 0.6719

For X1 (square footage)

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0013

H 0 : 1 0

H1 : 1 0

For X1 (age)

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0039

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 59

Jenny Wilson Realty

in predicting the

Full model is statistically significant

selling price

Useful in predicting selling price

p-value for F test = 0.002

r2 = 0.6719

For X1 square footage

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0013

H 0 : 1 0

H1 : 1 0

For X1 age

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0039

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 60

Binary (or dummy or indicator) variables are

special variables created for qualitative data

A dummy variable is assigned a value of 1 if a

particular condition is met and a value of 0

otherwise

The number of dummy variables must equal

one less than the number of categories of the

qualitative variable

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 61

A better model can be developed if

information about the condition of the property

is included

X3 = 1 if house is in excellent condition

= 0 otherwise

X4 = 1 if house is in mint condition

= 0 otherwise

the three categories of condition

No variable is needed for good condition

since if both X3 and X4 = 0, the house must be

in good condition

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 62

PROGRAM 4.5A Excel Input Screen with Dummy Variables

Education, Inc.

4 63

PROGRAM 4.5B Excel Output with Dummy Variables

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 64

PROGRAM 4.5B Excel Output with Dummy Variables

Coefficient of

determination,

r2 = 0.898

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 65

Nonlinear Regression

In some situations, variables are not linear

Transformations may be used to turn a

nonlinear model into a linear model

*

** *

***

*

Linear relationship

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

*

* **

* **

*

*

*

Nonlinear relationship

4 66

Colonel Motors

Use regression analysis to improve fuel

efficiency

Study the impact of weight on miles per gallon (MPG)

TABLE 4.6

MPG

WEIGHT

(1,000 LBS.)

MPG

WEIGHT

(1,000 LBS.)

12

4.58

20

3.18

13

4.66

23

2.68

15

4.02

24

2.65

18

2.53

33

1.70

19

3.09

36

1.95

19

3.11

42

1.92

Education, Inc.

4 67

Colonel Motors

FIGURE 4.6A Linear Model for MPG Data

45

40

35

30

MPG

25

20

15

10

5

0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Education, Inc.

4 68

Colonel Motors

model

PROGRAM 4.6 Excel Output for Linear Regression Model withUseful

MPG Data

Good r2 value

Y 47.6 8.2X1

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

or

4 69

Colonel Motors

FIGURE 4.6B Nonlinear Model for MPG Data

45

40

35

30

MPG

25

20

15

10

5

0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Education, Inc.

4 70

Colonel Motors

The nonlinear model is a quadratic model

The easiest approach develop a new variable

X 2 (weight)2

New model

Y b0 b1 X1 b2 X 2

Education, Inc.

4 71

Colonel Motors

Improved

PROGRAM 4.7 Excel Output for Nonlinear Regression Model

with MPGmodel

Data

Adjusted r2 and r2 both increased

Copyright 2015 Pearson

Education, Inc.

4 72

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