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To prevent and to End the

W 3/ 17 September 2014

Topic Question • What is Conflict Prevention? • What is the benefit of Conflict Prevention? • In what ways we conduct Conflict Prevention? • What is the critiques of Conflict Prevention? .

Case of Yugoslavia: NATO – cease fire after thousands soldiers andhundreds people died. clash) • Example : • . . and millions deserted from their home. (War. violent. injured.Understanding To End Conflict • An effort to end the conflict after the conflict erupted.

.Understanding Prevention • To prevent the war occurred (not only one particular war but the a family of possible wars).

• Relatively less harm • Goal to humanity/people not just only the interest of groups or individu/leader • May be more sustainable/peaceful coexistence • Open alternative to avoid the conflict and create a new relationship without being experience harmfull .Why we need to prevent? • Relatively less costly.

Type of Prevention • Light prevention: aimed at preventing situation with a clear capacity for violence from degenerating into armed conflict. • Deep prevention: concern with root of the causes. .

lokasi serta memantau proses perkembangan politik. Under what sorts of circumstance. .Type of Prevention • Casuality and prevention: menghilangkan faktor penyebab sebuah konflik (Suganami): • What are the condition?. How did this war come about? • Early warning: identifikasi konflik.

external opportunities. Gurr: • • • • Potential seccession: .Early Warning.collective incentives .capacity for joint action . .

preventive diplomacy. • Deep rooted intervention: good governence.How to prevent the Conflict • Through Intervention: • Light intervention: round table. human rights watch. . independence media.

Operational Prevention • Time frame: urgent. • dialogue and negotiation between conflicting parties .threats of military intervention or economic sanctions. crisis oriented • Actors: Diplomats. (bilateral and multilateral).international organisations • Approaches & tools: Crisis intervention. civil society. military. quiet diplomacy. political pressure.

Structural Prevention • Time frame: Longer term • Actors: Wide range of potential actors: multilateral. etc. prejudice reduction. relationshipbuilding. promotion of rule of law. reduction of social and economic inequalities. governmental. civil society • Approaches & tools: Democratic institution-building. . education. security sector reform. powersharing arrangements.

s: Mediation .Ways To end conflict • Negosiation • Third party.

Proses perdamaian dalam konflik • Turning point • Sticking point • Cycles. .

. Regional instituions.Interstates Prevention • Realist : B o P • Neoliberalist : institutional organizations.

Non states Prevention • Remove the risk ( indicators of Gurr’s). .

talking . costly .pinpoint situation at risk .action to prevent conflict may triger .risky. .collaborative support only happen after showing the casualties in media. achive nothing.Critics of Conflict Prevention • • • • • • • Stedman – Lind Debate: -preventive diplomacy is oversold: . .

Critics of Conflict Prevention • . .some conflict need to be intensified before resolved. • .to focus on prevention neglect the dynamic of conflict for political chnage.

example of early warning in Balkan . .better than non intervention and late intervention.Some beneficial . .overestimate the obstacle.Proponent of Conflict Prevention • • • • • Lund: .

Question for Next week • Jelaskan perkembangan (tahapan) konflik yang ada • Jelaskan penyebab dari konflik • Jelakan bagaimana konflik berakhir. • Bagaimana pencegahan bisa dilakukan pada kasus tersebut. . • Apa yang bisa di pelajari (diambil hikmahnya dari konflik tersebut.