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BU 385

Roadmap

Last Class

Today

Product Design (Ch 4)

Reliability (Supplement to Ch 4)

Next class

Midterm 1 Review

Today

Introduction to Reliability

Measures of Reliability

Series System

Parallel system

Combination of Series and Parallel Systems

Economic Analysis of back-up

Availability

Failure Rate

3

MTTF, MTTR

Exponential and Normal Distribution

Reliability

**A system is reliable if it performs its
**

intended functions when required

.

Measures of Reliability Probability that the system works At an instant in time (consistency) Over a specific length of time Length of time can have a distribution. Examples: Exponential. Normal Availability Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) .

90 of them will work when switched on . 90 times out of 100. the system will succeed in doing its intended function If there are 100 such systems.Reliability: Instant in Time No time dimension Reliability is 90% This implies that the system will work on an average 90% of the time it is switched on In other words.

Reliability: Length of Time Probability that the system is on for a given length of time System can be “on” or “off”. The length of “on” time can have any probability distribution Examples: Exponential. Normal .

what is the reliability of the system? .Example 1: Instant in Time (System in Series) System in Series Stage 1: Mixing machine Stage 2: Baking Oven Stage 3: Decorating machine Materials and Ingredients for ONE cake are added to the Mixing Machine. Output from Mixing goes to Baking and then to Decorating The system succeeds if each of the three steps works successfully If each stage has a 90% chance of finishing successfully.

Example 1 contd.729 R1*R2*R3*…*Rn Reliability of a series system is less than the reliability of the least reliable machine in the series .9 Reliability = Input Mixing Oven Decorating Output System Reliability for a series system 0.9x0.9 = 0. Stage Mixing Baking Decorati ng Reliability 0.9 0.9x0.9 0.

the materials move automatically to Oven-2 as unbaked ready to be baked. If all goes well with the ovens. the materials move automatically to Oven-3 as unbaked ready to be baked. that is. Baking Oven-2. If Oven-2 fails. what is the reliability of the system. If Oven-3 fails then the OVEN System has failed and the materials will be discarded. Baking Oven-3 Unbaked materials and Ingredients for ONE cake are sent to Oven-1 If Oven-1 fails. the probability that the system will work successfully? .Example 2: Instant in Time: System in Parallel There are three Parallel Ovens Baking Oven-1. the output is a baked cake If each oven has a 90% chance of finishing successfully.

(1-R 1)(1-R2)(1R3) Reliability of a Parallel System (System with backup) is greater than reliability of the most reliable machine in the parallel system .0.9 0.Example 2 contd.9 System Reliability = No of Successes 1.9)(1-0.9 0.001 = 0. Reliability OVEN-1 OVEN-2 OVEN-3 0.(1-0.9) = 1.9)(1-0.999 Reliability of a Parallel System = 1 .

the materials move automatically to Oven-2 as unprocessed ready to be processed. Baking Oven-2. If all goes well in the decorating machine the cake comes out as good cake otherwise as a bad cake and discarded If the mixing and decorating each has a reliability of 90%. Baking Oven-3 Stage 3: Materials and Ingredients for ONE cake are added to the Mixing Machine. If Decorating Machine all goes well. If Oven-1 fails. If Oven-3 fails then the OVEN system has failed. If all goes well with the ovens. the output goes to the Baking Oven system as Good Materials otherwise it goes as BAD materials and discarded There are three ovens in parallel in the Baking Oven system. is the reliability of the system? what . 90% and 70% in any order. If Oven-2 fails. that is if at least one of the ovens does not fail then the output goes to the decorating machine as Good Materials otherwise it is BAD and discarded.Example 3: Instant in Time (Series and Parallel Systems) Stage 1: Mixing Machine Stage 2: Baking Oven-1. the materials move automatically to Oven-3 as unprocessed ready to be processed. and the ovens in the oven system have reliabilities of 80%.

80514 0.8) MIXING Decorating (0.(1-0.9 0.8)(1-0.7) = 1.9) = 0.9) Oven1 (0.8 0.9 0.0.7 0.9 Decoratin g 1.9) Parallel Oven System OVEN-1 OVEN-2 OVEN-3 Mixing Success Rate 0.9) (0.Example 3 contd.006 = 0.7) Oven2 (0.9)(1-0.994 0.994) (0. Oven3 (0.9 Reliability System Reliability = 0.9 .9 (0.

9)[1-(0.1)] = 0.1)][1-(0.1)(0.1)(0.Example 4: Instant in Time (Combining Series and Parallel Systems) Stage 1: Mixing Machine Stage 2: Three baking Ovens in parallel Stage 3: Two Decorating machines in parallel Reliability of each machine is 0.8901 .1)(0.9 What is system reliability? Answer: (0.

98? . For a cost of $100.Example 5: Economic Analysis of Backup Systems A product design engineer must decide if a redundant component is cost-justified in a certain system. The system in question has a critical component with a prob. is also . 98 of operating. of . Should the backup be added if the switch and backup operating prob. a switch and backup component could be added that would automatically transfer the system to the backup component in the event of a failure. System failure would involve a cost of $20.000.

98 Reliability of a Parallel System with backup = 1 –(1-R1)(1-R2) = 1 – (1.98)(1-0.98) = 0.98 Component R=0.0.Example 5 (cont): Reliability? Backup R=0.9996 .98 Reliability of a System with No backup = R1 = 0.98 Component R=0.

we could pay up to 392 for a backup Backup investment of 100 is good Method 2 Total Expected Cost with the Backup Option = Cost of Backup Switch + Expected Failure Cost = 100 + 8 = 108 Total Expected Cost with no backup = 400 which is higher than the expected cost with backup…Therefore backup option is better .9996)20000 = 8 Therefore.Example 5 (cont): Economy Analysis Method 1 Expected Failure Cost: (1-Reliability)(Failure Cost) Expected Failure Cost: No Backup : (1-0.98)20000 = 400 Expected Failure Cost: Backup Option: (1-0.

The length of “on” time can have any probability distribution Examples: Exponential. Normal .Reliability: Length of Time Probability that the system is on for a given length of time System can be “on” or “off”.

T Figure Figure 4S-2 4S-2 Wear-out .Failure rate Failure Rate as a Function of Time 0 Burn-in Steady state (random failures) Time.

The Bathtub Curve: Example Wear out with increasing failure Initial high but rate decreasing rate of failure Random with constant mean and standard deviation .

500 hours Can test 400 items for 1.Probability of Function for a Length of Time This is a common approach Product warranties are based on this approach failure rate per hour = # of failures total operating hours If failure rate is constant over time. timequantity transposition is applicable Can test 200 items for 2.000 hours .250 hours Can test 1 item for 500.

Mean Time to Failure MTTF = Mean Time to Failure Mean time it works before failing Mean “on” time MTTF = 1 failure rate .

Availability MTTF = Mean Time to Failure Mean time it works before failing Mean “on” time MTTR = Mean Time to Repair Mean time it takes to repair the system when it fails MTTF Availabili ty MTTF MTTR Ensure that MTTF and MTTR are in the same time dimensions .

9473 or 95% B SA = 24 / (24 + 1) = .9375 or 94% A SA = 36 / (36 + 2) = .Example 6: Availability Which of these systems is most available? PROVIDER MTTF (HOURS) MTTR(HOURS) A 60 4 B 36 2 C 24 1 SA = 60 / (60 + 4) = .96 or 96% C Provider C is most available .

Example 7: Availability A designer estimates that she can (a) increase the average time between failures by 5% at a cost of $450 or (b) reduce the average repair time by 10% at a cost of $200. Which option is best? MTTF = 100 hours MTTR = 4 hours .

9615) = $276.799 Option 2: Reduce MTTR by 10% from 4hrs to 3.9615 MTTF MTTR 100 4 Option 1: Increase MTTF by 5% from 100 to 105 Availability = 105/(105+4) = 0.6) = 0.9653 Cost: 200 Cost/unit increase = 200/(0.9633-0.9633 Cost: 450 Cost/unit increase = 450/(0.6 Availability: 100/(100+3.Example 7 (cont) MTTF 100 Availability 0.320 .9615) = $53.9653-0.

Reliability: Length of Time Exponential Distribution Reliability Prob(System does NOT fail before T) e Prob(System fails before T ) T MTTF 1 e T MTTF Ensure that T and MTTF are expressed in same time units .

The Exponential Distribution .

between 4 and 6 years .Example 8: Exponential distribution By means of extensive testing. After the initial four years of services b. Find the probability that one of these cleaners will have a life that ends: a. Before four years of service are completed c. Not before six years of service d. Before 6 years e. a manufacturer has determined that its Super Sucker Vacuum Cleaner models have an expected life that is Exponential with a mean of four years.

Before four years of service are completed P[ T < 4] = 1-e-T/MTTF =1. Not before six years of service P[T > 6] = e-T/MTTF = e-6/4 = 0.2231 d.6321 = 0. Before 6 years P[ T < 6] = 1-e-T/MTTF =1.3679 b.e-4/4 = 1-1/e = 0.7769 – 0. After the initial four years of services P[T > 4] = e-T/MTTF = e-4/4 = 1/e = 0.Example 8 (cont) a.6321 c. between 4 and 6 years P[4 < T < 6] = P[T < 6] – P[T < 4] = 0.e-6/4 = 0.7769 e.1448 .

X. with mean = μ and standard deviation = σ can be transformed to a standard normal random variable with mean 0 and standard deviation 1 using X the Z transformation .Reliability – Length of Time Normal distribution Property: A normal random variable.

Standard Normal Distribution Table http://www.com/data/standard-normal-distribution-table.html .mathsisfun.

Understanding Standardized Scores .

5 years of services.5 years . it will wear out before 4. that a ball bearing will wear out after 7. that a ball bearing will wear before 7. it will wear out between 4 and 7 years d) the prob. Determine each of the following: a) The prob. b)The prob.5 years of services. c) the prob.Example 9 The mean life of a certain ball bearing can be modeled using a Normal distribution with a mean of 6 years and a standard deviation of 2 years.

5 years P[X < 7.2266 .Example 9 contd.5] = 1 – 0. P[X > 7.: μ = 6 and σ = 2 a. that a ball bearing will wear before 7.5-6)/2] = P[Z < 0. The prob.7734 = 0. The prob.7734 b. that a ball bearing will wear out after 7.75] = 0.5 years.5] = P[Z < (7.

it will wear out between 4 and 7 years P[4 < X < 7] = P[X < 7] – P[X < 4] = P[Z < (7-6)/2] – P[Z < (4-6)/2] = P[Z < 0.: μ = 6 and σ = 2 c. it will wear out before 4.6915 – 0.7734 = 0.75] = 1 – 0.0.5328 d.5] – P[Z < -1] = P[Z < 0.5-6)/2] = P[Z < -0.5] – P[Z > 1] = 0.Example 9 contd.75] = P[Z > 0.8413) = 0.6915 – (1.5 years P[ X < 4. The prob.5] = P[Z < (4.2266 .1587 = 0. The prob.

Quality Printer will replace it free of charge. a customer can choose between two warranty plans. a 2-year warranty for $50 or a 3-year warranty for $100. If the printer fails within the warranty period. If a customer decided to buy a warranty. which one (the 2-year or 3-year warranty) is better in terms of cost? . Each printer costs $499.Length of Time: Economic Analysis Example 10 The life span of Quality Printer’s specialty printer is Normally distributed with a mean of 3. Assume that the probability for a customer to have two successive failed printers in a warranty period is zero.5 years and a standard deviation of 0.5 year. When purchasing a printer.

1587 Expected cost of failure = 499*0.5 2 year warranty P[ X < 2] = P[Z < (2-3.5] = P[Z < -3] = P[Z > 3] = 1 .8413 = 0.19 Difference in cost between 3 year and 2 year warranty is $50.0013 Expected cost of failure = 499*0.: μ = 3.46 . . The difference in loss if the printer fails within 2 years or 3 years is 78.0.1587 = 79.5 and σ = 0.5)/0. Hence it is better to buy a 3 year warranty.Example 10 contd.P[Z < 1] = 1.5] = P[Z < -1] = P[Z > 1] = 1 .P[Z < 3] = 1.0013 = 0.9987 = 0.65 3 year warranty P[ X < 3] = P[Z < (3-3.5)/0.0.

Improving Reliability Component Design Production/Assembly Techniques Testing Redundancy/backups Preventive Maintenance Procedures User Education System Design .

Increase Overall Reliability .

Next Class Review for midterm one .

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