Binomial Distribution

By: BL

Learning Objectives
• At the end of the two-hour lecture,
the students shall be able to:
1. define the binomial probability
distribution
2. define a binomial experiment
3. compute problems related to the
binomial experiment

S. The trials are independent. F. and the other failure. the number of successes observed during the n trials. The probability of a failure is equal to (1-p) =q. 4. For a lack of better nomenclature we will call one outcome as a success. 2. The probability of a success on a single trial is equal to p and remains the same from trial to trial. The random variable of interest is Y. 3.Definition A binomial experiment is one that possess the following properties: 1. 5. The experiment consists of n identical trials. Each trial results in one of two outcomes. .

Illustration • A typical sample would appear like this (5 trials): S First trial F F S S Last trial .

Rearrange n S S y S F F n-y .

n-y q = py q n-y . p y S . p F .Hence the probability is… S p S . q F .

Combination SSSFF FSSSF SFSSF SSFSF FFSSS FSFSS FSSFS FSSSF SFFSS SFSFS = n! y!(n-y)! 10 combinations! n taken y times .

n y = = n! y!(n-y)! 5! 3! 2! = = = 5x4x3x2x1 3x2x1x2x1 = 120 12 = 10 5x4x3x2! 3x2x1 x2! 60 = = 10 6 5x4x 3! 20 = = 10 2 3! x2x1 .

Now. bring out your scientific calculator! Locate nCr This corresponds to your nCy Instruction 1. Press <5> 2. Press <3> Answer is 10 . Press <shift> <nCr> 3.

n . the Binomial Probability Distribution is… p(y) = py qn-y .Therefore. y= 0. . . 2. .. 1.

• Experience has shown that 30% of the persons afflicted by a certain illness recover. Ten people with the illness were selected at random and injected with the vaccine. What is the probability that exactly nine of ten injected by the vaccine will recover? .Example 1. Suppose that the vaccine was absolutely worthless. nine recovered shortly thereafter. A drug company has developed a new vaccine.

2.Solution Given: n = 10 y=9 p = .7 p(y)= py qn-y .000137781 .3 q = .71 . y= 0..7 p(y=9) = 0. .00019683 x 0.39 . . . n p(y=9) = p(y=9) = 10 x 0. 1.

Suppose that the vaccine was absolutely worthless.Example 2. • Experience has shown that 30% of the persons afflicted by a certain illness recover. What is the probability that exactly ten injected by the vaccine will recover? . A drug company has developed a new vaccine. nine recovered shortly thereafter. Ten people with the illness were selected at random and injected with the vaccine.

1.0000059049 .70 p(y=10) = p(y=10) = 1 x 0. . .7 p(y)= py qn-y . n . y= 0.3 q = .. . 2.310 .0000059049 x 1 p(y=10) = 0.Solution Given: n = 10 y = 10 p = .

• Experience has shown that 30% of the persons afflicted by a certain illness recover. Suppose that the vaccine was absolutely worthless. nine recovered shortly thereafter.Example 3. Ten people with the illness were selected at random and injected with the vaccine. A drug company has developed a new vaccine. What is the probability that at least 9 of 10 injected by the vaccine will recover? .

Solution p(y≥9) = p(y=9) + p(y=10) = 0.0001436859 The event is at least 9 of 10 will recover Additive rule of probability p(S) = 1 .

Formula 10 p(y≥9) =  y=9 0.3y 0.710-y .

A drug company has developed a new vaccine. • Experience has shown that 30% of the persons afflicted by a certain illness recover. nine recovered shortly thereafter. Suppose that the vaccine was absolutely worthless. What is the probability that at least 2 of 10 injected by the vaccine will recover? .Example 4. Ten people with the illness were selected at random and injected with the vaccine.

..[ p(y=0) + p(y=1) ] p(S) = 1 At least 2 will recover . + p(y=10) p(≥2) = 1 .Solution p(≥2) = p(y=2) + p(y=3) + .

710 = 0.710-y = 0.1210608 ) .3y 0.85069 y=0 p(y=0) = 0.1210608 p(y≥2) = 1- ( 0.0282475 p(y=1) = 0.0282475 + 0.Formula 1 p(y≥2) = 1-  0.31 0.30 0.79 = 0.

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