FM Chapter 12

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FM Chapter 12

© All Rights Reserved

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Risk and

Refinements in

Capital

Budgeting

Learning Goals

LG1 Understand the importance of recognizing risk in the

analysis of capital budgeting projects.

LG2 Discuss risk and cash inflows, scenario analysis, and

simulation as behavioral approaches for dealing with

risk.

LG3 Review the unique risks that multinational companies

face.

12-2

LG4 Describe the determination and use of risk-adjusted

discount rates (RADRs), portfolio effects, and the

practical aspects of RADRs.

LG5 Select the best of a group of unequal-lived, mutually

exclusive projects using annualized net present values

(ANPVs).

LG6 Explain the role of real options and the objective and

procedures for selecting projects under capital

rationing.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-3

Budgeting

Thus far, we have assumed that all investment projects

have the same level of risk as the firm.

In other words, we assumed that all projects are equally

risky, and the acceptance of any project would not change

the firms overall risk.

In actuality, these situations are rareprojects are not

equally risky, and the acceptance of a project can affect

the firms overall risk.

12-4

for Bennett Companys Projects

12-5

with Risk: Risk and Cash Inflows

Behavioral approaches can be used to get a feel for the

level of project risk, whereas other approaches try to

quantify and measure project risk.

Risk (in capital budgeting) refers to the uncertainty

surrounding the cash flows that a project will generate or,

more formally, the degree of variability of cash flows.

In many projects, risk stems almost entirely from the cash

flows that a project will generate several years in the

future, because the initial investment is generally known

with relative certainty.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-6

Risk: Risk and Cash Inflows (cont.)

Treadwell Tire Company, a tire retailer with a 10% cost of

capital, is considering investing in either of two mutually

exclusive projects, A and B. Each requires a $10,000 initial

investment, and both are expected to provide constant

annual cash inflows over their 15-year lives. For either

project to be acceptable its NPV must be greater than zero.

12-7

Risk: Risk and Cash Inflows (cont.)

12-8

with Risk: Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis is a behavioral approach that uses

several possible alternative outcomes (scenarios), to

obtain a sense of the variability of returns, measured here

by NPV.

In capital budgeting, one of the most common scenario

approaches is to estimate the NPVs associated with

pessimistic (worst), most likely (expected), and optimistic

(best) estimates of cash inflow.

The range can be determined by subtracting the

pessimistic-outcome NPV from the optimistic-outcome

NPV.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-9

Treadwells Projects A and B

12-

Dealing with Risk: Simulation

Simulation is a statistics-based behavioral approach that

applies predetermined probability distributions and random

numbers to estimate risky outcomes.

12-

12-

Focus on Practice

The Monte Carlo Method: The Forecast Is for Less Uncertainty

To combat uncertainty in the decision-making process, some companies use a

Monte Carlo simulation program to model possible outcomes.

A Monte Carlo simulation program randomly generates values for uncertain

variables over and over to simulate a model.

The simulation then requires project practitioners to develop low, high, and

most likely cost estimates along with correlation coefficients.

One of the problems with using a Monte Carlo program is the difficulty of

establishing the correct input ranges for the variables and determining the

correlation coefficients for those variables.

A Monte Carlo simulation program requires the user to first build an Excel

spreadsheet model that captures the input variables for the proposed project.

What issues and what benefits can the user derive from this process?

12-

International Risk

Considerations

Exchange rate risk is the danger that an unexpected

change in the exchange rate between the dollar and the

currency in which a projects cash flows are denominated

will reduce the market value of that projects cash flow.

In the short term, much of this risk can be hedged by

using financial instruments such as foreign currency

futures and options.

Long-term exchange rate risk can best be minimized by

financing the project in whole or in part in the local

currency.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Matter of Fact

A 2001 survey of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) found

that more than 40% of the CFOs felt that it was important to

adjust an investment projects cash flows or discount rates to

account for foreign exchange risk.

12-

International Risk

Considerations (cont.)

Political risk is much harder to protect against. Firms that make

investments abroad may find that the host-country government can

limit the firms ability to return profits back home. Governments

can seize the firms assets, or otherwise interfere with a projects

operation.

The difficulties of managing political risk after the fact make it

even more important that managers account for political risks

before making an investment.

They can do so either by adjusting a projects expected cash

inflows to account for the probability of political interference or by

using risk-adjusted discount rates in capital budgeting formulas.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

International Risk

Considerations (cont.)

Other special issues relevant for international capital

budgeting include:

Taxes

Transfer pricing

Strategic, rather than financial, considerations

12-

Risk-adjusted discount rates (RADR) are rates of return

that must be earned on a given project to compensate the

firms owners adequatelythat is, to maintain or improve

the firms share price.

12-

Talor Namtig is considering investing $1,000 in either of

two stocksA or B. She plans to hold the stock for exactly

5 years and expects both stocks to pay $80 in annual end-ofyear cash dividends. At the end of the year 5 she estimates

that stock A can be sold to net $1,200 and stock B can be

sold to net $1,500. Her research indicates that she should

earn an annual return on an average risk stock of 11%.

Because stock B is considerably riskier, she will require a

14% return from it. Talor makes the following calculations

to find the risk-adjusted net present values (NPVs) for the

two stocks:

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

(cont.)

investments are acceptable (NPVs > $0), on a risk-adjusted

basis, she should invest in Stock B because it has a higher

NPV.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Review of CAPM

Using beta, bj, to measure the relevant risk of any asset j, the

CAPM is

rj = RF + [bj (rm RF)]

where

rj

RF

bj

rm

=

=

=

=

risk-free rate of return

beta coefficient for asset j

return on the market portfolio of assets

12-

Figure 12.2

CAPM and SML

12-

Using CAPM to Find RADRs (cont.)

Figure 12.2 shows two projects, L and R.

Project L has a beta, bL, and generates an internal rate of return,

IRRL. The required return for a project with risk bL is rL.

Because project L generates a return greater than that required (IRR L > rL),

project L is acceptable.

Project L will have a positive NPV when its cash inflows are discounted at its

required return, rL.

for its risk, bR (IRRR < rR).

This project will have a negative NPV when its cash inflows are discounted at

its required return, rR.

Project R should be rejected.

12-

Focus on Ethics

Ethics and the Cost of Capital

On April 20, 2010 the Deepwater Horizon, an offshore drilling rig

operated by Transocean Ltd. on behalf of BP, exploded and

eventually sank in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 people.

To make matters worse, oil began spewing into the Gulf.

By June 2010, BPs stock price was 50% below pre-crisis levels

and the companys bonds traded at levels comparable to junk rated

companies.

Is the ultimate goal of the firm, to maximize the wealth of the

owners for whom the firm is being operated, ethical?

Why might ethical companies benefit from a lower cost of capital

than less ethical companies?

12-

Applying RADRs

Bennett Company wishes to apply the Risk-Adjusted

Discount Rate (RADR) approach to determine whether to

implement Project A or B. In addition to the data presented

earlier, Bennetts management assigned a risk index of

1.6 to project A and 1.0 to project B as indicated in the

following table. The required rates of return associated with

these indexes are then applied as the discount rates to the

two projects to determine NPV.

12-

Applying RADRs (cont.)

12-

Companys Capital Expenditure Alternatives

Using RADRs

12-

Companys Capital Expenditure Alternatives

Using RADRs

12-

Applying RADRs (cont.)

Project A

Project B

12-

Applying RADRs (cont.)

12-

Portfolio Effects

As noted earlier, individual investors must hold

diversified portfolios because they are not rewarded for

assuming diversifiable risk.

Because business firms can be viewed as portfolios of

assets, it would seem that it is also important that they too

hold diversified portfolios.

Surprisingly, however, empirical evidence suggests that

firm value is not affected by diversification.

In other words, diversification is not normally rewarded

and therefore is generally not necessary.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Portfolio Effects (cont.)

It turns out that firms are not rewarded for diversification

because investors can do so themselves.

An investor can diversify more readily, easily, and

costlessly simply by holding portfolios of stocks.

12-

Risk Classes and RADRs

12-

RADRs in Practice (cont.)

Assume that the management of Bennett Company decided to use risk

classes to analyze projects and so placed each project in one of four

risk classes according to its perceived risk. The classes ranged from I

for the lowest-risk projects to IV for the highest-risk projects.

The financial manager of Bennett has assigned project A to class III

and project B to class II. The cash flows for project A would be

evaluated using a 14% RADR, and project Bs would be evaluated

using a 10% RADR. The NPV of project A at 14% was calculated in

Figure 12.3 to be $6,063, and the NPV for project B at a 10% RADR

was shown in Table 12.1 to be $10,924.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives

The financial manager must often select the best of a

group of unequal-lived projects.

If the projects are independent, the length of the project

lives is not critical.

But when unequal-lived projects are mutually exclusive,

the impact of differing lives must be considered because

the projects do not provide service over comparable time

periods.

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

two projects, X and Y. The projects cash flows and resulting

NPVs at a cost of capital of 10% is given below.

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

Project X

Project Y

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

acceptable (have positive NPVs). Furthermore, if the

projects were mutually exclusive, project Y would be

preferred over project X. However, it is important to

recognize that at the end of its 3 year life, project Y must be

replaced, or renewed.

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

The annualized net present value (ANPV) approach is an approach

to evaluating unequal-lived projects that converts the net present value

of unequal-lived, mutually exclusive projects into an equivalent

annual amount (in NPV terms).

Step 1

over its life, nj, using the appropriate cost of capital, r.

Step 2

Convert the NPVj into an annuity having life nj. That is,

find an annuity that has the same life and the same NPV

as the project.

Step 3

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

X and Y, we can apply the three-step ANPV approach as

follows:

Step 1 The net present values of projects X and Y

discounted at 10%as calculated in the

preceding example for a single purchase of each

assetare

NPVX = $11,277.24 (table value = $11,248)

NPVY = $19,013.27 (table value = $18,985)

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

Step 1 into annuities. For project X, we are

trying to find the answer to the question, what 3year annuity (equal to the life of project X) has a

present value of $11,248 (the NPV of project

X)? Likewise, for project Y we want to know

what 6-year annuity has a present value of

$18,985. Once we have these values, we can

determine which project, X or Y, delivers a

higher annual cash flow on a present value

basis.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

Project X

Project Y

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

12-

Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.)

can see that project X would be preferred over

project Y. Given that projects X and Y are

mutually exclusive, project X would be the

recommended project because it provides the

higher annualized net present value.

12-

Real options are opportunities that are embedded in capital

projects that enable managers to alter their cash flows and

risk in a way that affects project acceptability (NPV).

Also called strategic options.

budgeting decisions, managers can make improved, more

strategic decisions that consider in advance the economic

impact of certain contingent actions on project cash flow

and risk.

NPVstrategic = NPVtraditional + Value of real options

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Table 12.4

Major Types of Real Options

12-

(cont.)

Assume that a strategic analysis of Bennett Companys

projects A and B finds no real options embedded in Project

A but two real options embedded in B:

1. During its first two years, B would have downtime that results

in unused production capacity that could be used to perform

contract manufacturing;

2. Project Bs computerized control system could control two

other machines, thereby reducing labor costs.

12-

(cont.)

Bennetts management estimated the NPV of the contract

manufacturing over the two years following implementation of project

B to be $1,500 and the NPV of the computer control sharing to be

$2,000. Management felt there was a 60% chance that the contract

manufacturing option would be exercised and only a 30% chance that

the computer control sharing option would be exercised. The

combined value of these two real options would be the sum of their

expected values.

Value of real options for project B

= (0.60 $1,500) + (0.30 $2,000)

= $900 + $600 = $1,500

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

(cont.)

Adding the $1,500 real options value to the traditional NPV of

$10,924 for project B, we get the strategic NPV for project B.

NPVstrategic = $10,924 + $1,500 = $12,424

Bennett Companys project B therefore has a strategic NPV of

$12,424, which is above its traditional NPV and now exceeds project

As NPV of $11,071. Clearly, recognition of project Bs real options

improved its NPV (from $10,924 to $12,424) and causes it to be

preferred over project A (NPV of $12,424 for B > NPV of $11,071 for

A), which has no real options embedded in it.

12-

Capital Rationing

Firms often operate under conditions of capital rationing

they have more acceptable independent projects than

they can fund.

In theory, capital rationing should not existfirms should

accept all projects that have positive NPVs.

However, in practice, most firms operate under capital

rationing.

Generally, firms attempt to isolate and select the best

acceptable projects subject to a capital expenditure budget

set by management.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

The internal rate of return approach is an approach to

capital rationing that involves graphing project IRRs in

descending order against the total dollar investment to

determine the group of acceptable projects.

The graph that plots project IRRs in descending order

against the total dollar investment is called the

investment opportunities schedule (IOS).

The problem with this technique is that it does not

guarantee the maximum dollar return to the firm.

12-

Tate Company, a fast growing plastics company with a cost

of capital of 10%, is confronted with six projects competing

for its fixed budget of $250,000.

12-

Opportunities Schedule

12-

The net present value approach is an approach to capital

rationing that is based on the use of present values to

determine the group of projects that will maximize

owners wealth.

It is implemented by ranking projects on the basis of IRRs

and then evaluating the present value of the benefits from

each potential project to determine the combination of

projects with the highest overall present value.

12-

Company Projects

12-

LG1 Understand the importance of recognizing risk in the

analysis of capital budgeting projects.

The cash flows associated with capital budgeting projects

typically have different levels of risk, and the acceptance of

a project generally affects the firms overall risk. Thus it is

important to incorporate risk considerations in capital

budgeting.

12-

(cont.)

LG2 Discuss risk and cash inflows, scenario analysis, and

simulation as behavioral approaches for dealing with

risk.

Risk in capital budgeting is the degree of variability of cash

flows, which for conventional capital budgeting projects

stems almost entirely from net cash flows. Finding the

breakeven cash inflow and estimating the probability that it

will be realized make up one behavioral approach for

assessing capital budgeting risk. Scenario analysis is another

behavioral approach for capturing the variability of cash

inflows and NPVs. Simulation is a statistically based

approach that results in a probability distribution of project

returns.

12-

(cont.)

LG3 Review the unique risks that multinational companies

face.

Although the basic capital budgeting techniques are the

same for multinational and purely domestic companies,

firms that operate in several countries must also deal with

exchange rate and political risks, tax law differences,

transfer pricing, and strategic issues.

12-

(cont.)

LG4 Describe the determination and use of risk-adjusted

discount rates (RADRs), portfolio effects, and the

practical aspects of RADRs.

The risk of a project whose initial investment is known with

certainty is embodied in the present value of its cash

inflows, using NPV. Two opportunities to adjust the present

value of cash inflows for risk existadjust the cash inflows

or adjust the discount rate. Because adjusting the cash

inflows is highly subjective, adjusting discount rates is

more popular. RADRs use a market-based adjustment of the

discount rate to calculate NPV.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

(cont.)

LG5 Select the best of a group of unequal-lived, mutually

exclusive projects using annualized net present values

(ANPVs).

The ANPV approach is the most efficient method of

comparing ongoing, mutually exclusive projects that have

unequal usable lives. It converts the NPV of each unequallived project into an equivalent annual amountits ANPV.

12-

(cont.)

LG6 Explain the role of real options and the objective and

procedures for selecting projects under capital rationing.

Real options are opportunities that are embedded in capital projects

and that allow managers to alter their cash flow and risk in a way

that affects project acceptability (NPV). By explicitly recognizing

real options, the financial manager can find a projects strategic

NPV.

Capital rationing exists when firms have more acceptable

independent projects than they can fund. The two basic approaches

for choosing projects under capital rationing are the internal rate of

return approach and the net present value approach. The NPV

approach better achieves the objective of using the budget to

generate the highest present value of inflows.

12-

Chapter Resources on

MyFinanceLab

Chapter Cases

Group Exercises

Critical Thinking Problems

12-

Integrative Case:

Lasting Impressions Company

Lasting Impressions (LI) Companys general manager has

proposed the purchase of one of two large, six-color presses

designed for long, high-quality runs. The purchase of a new

press would enable LI to reduce its cost of labor and

therefore the price to the client, putting the firm in a more

competitive position. The key financial characteristics of the

old press and of the two proposed presses are summarized in

what follows.

12-

Impressions Company (cont.)

Press A This highly automated press can be purchased for

$830,000 and will require $40,000 in installation costs. It will

be depreciated under MACRS using a 5-year recovery period.

At the end of the 5 years, the machine could be sold to net

$400,000 before taxes. If this machine is acquired, it is

anticipated that the following current account changes would

result:

Cash: +$25,400

Accounts receivable: +$120,000

Inventories: $20,000

Accounts payable: +$35,000

12-

Impressions Company (cont.)

Press B This press is not as sophisticated as press A. It costs

$640,000 and requires $20,000 in installation costs. It will

be depreciated under MACRS using a 5-year recovery

period. At the end of 5 years, it can be sold to net $330,000

before taxes. Acquisition of this press will have no effect on

the firms net working capital investment.

12-

Impressions Company (cont.)

The firm estimates that its earnings before depreciation,

interest, and taxes with the old press and with press A or

press B for each of the 5 years would be as shown in Table

1. The firm is subject to a 40% tax rate. The firms cost of

capital, r, applicable to the proposed replacement is 14%.

12-

Interest, and Taxes for Lasting Impressions

Companys Presses

12-

Impressions Company (cont.)

a. For each of the two proposed replacement presses,

determine:

1. Initial investment.

2. Operating cash inflows. (Note: Be sure to consider the

depreciation in year 6.)

3. Terminal cash flow. (Note: This is at the end of year 5.)

time line the relevant cash flow stream associated with

each of the two proposed replacement presses, assuming

that each is terminated at the end of 5 years.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Impressions Company (cont.)

c. Using the data developed in part b, apply each of the

following decision techniques:

1. Payback period. (Note: For year 5, use only the operating cash

inflowsthat is, exclude terminal cash flowwhen making

this calculation.)

2. Net present value (NPV).

3. Internal rate of return (IRR).

presses on the same set of axes, and discuss conflicting

rankings of the two presses, if any, resulting from use of

NPV and IRR decision techniques.

2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights

12-

Impressions Company (cont.)

e.

should acquire if the firm has (1) unlimited funds or

(2) capital rationing.

f.

that the operating cash inflows associated with press A

are characterized as very risky in contrast to the lowrisk operating cash inflows of press B?

12-

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