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Dr. Katherine Sauer Global Economic Issues ECON 241
A. Quick Review: 1st wave of globalization:
10% of world¶s population migrated
anti-immigrant sentiment, distrust of ³foreigners´ drastically reduced immigration flows of people to the developing nations were not restored there are growing pressures to migrate out of rural or poor areas to urban/rich areas
2nd wave of globalization:
3rd wave of globalization:
B. Why does migration happen? 1. Push Factors: negative aspects of the sending country - poverty - lack of jobs - crime/civil strife/war - political/religious persecution - natural disasters/ environmental problems 2. Pull Factors: positive aspects in the receiving country - higher wages /higher standard of living - labor demand/available jobs - political/religious freedom
Philippines Migration Slideshow
C. Current Migration Statistics: (2005) 2005 UN estimate: 3% of people live outside their country of birth (192 million people)
The number of migrants world wide is growing about 2.9% per year. The number of migrants world wide would make up the 5th most populous country. There are 30 ± 40 million unauthorized migrants world wide. (15 - 20% of all migrants) - there are 7 ± 8 million undocumented migrants in Europe - there are 10.3 million undocumented migrants in the US (about 500,000 arrive each year)
There are 23.7 million internally displaced persons in 50 countries. There are 8.4 million global refugees. 75% of all migrants are concentrated in 12% of the countries.
Global trends behind today¶s ³mobile world´ - demographic trends - economic disparities between developed and developing nations - globalization forces - communication networks link all parts of the world
Migrant Population Pop. (million) 56.1 49.9 40.8 16.3 5.9 5.8 % of the area¶s pop. 7.7% 1.4% 12.9% 2% 1.1% 18.7%
Geographic Area Europe and former USSR Asia North America Africa Latin America Australia
Source: International Organization for Migration http://www.iom.int/
Countries hosting the largest number of migrants (2000) United States Russian Federation Germany Ukraine France India Canada Saudi Arabia Australia Pakistan United Kingdom 35.0 million 13.0 million 7.3 million 6.9 million 6.3 million 6.3 million 5.8 million 5.3 million 4.7 million 4.2 million 4.0 million
Top 3 Migrant Sending Countries Country China India Philippines Estimated Diaspora 35 million 20 million 7 million
D. Economic Effects Possible effects in the sending country: (+) Remittances from workers abroad are sent back home. This is a source of income for family members who stayed in the sending country. The increase in income may spur the local economy to grow. (-) If enough workers leave the country, a labor shortage can result. (-) ³Brain Drain´ ± people who are trained/educated leave the country. (+) People who left to become better educated or to find work may eventually return home with better skills. The sending country may benefit in the long run. 9
Possible effects in the receiving country: (+ -) There is an influx of eager labor. (+) Immigrants may alleviate a labor shortage. (-) Immigrants compete with domestic workers for jobs. (- +) Immigrants can be a source of cheap labor. (+) Employers can hire more cheaply. (-) Wages of domestic workers are kept low. (-) Immigrants are a strain on local social services. (+) ³Brain Gain´ ± the receiving country gets the best and brightest people from all over.
Example: Economic Effects of Filipino Nurses in the US In the 1970s, the US began to experience a shortage of nurses. - other work opportunities for women were opening up - the long hours and low pay of nursing was a less attractive option for many women US hospitals were able to fill unwanted job openings with nurses from the Philippines. - Filipino nurses were well-educated and spoke English. Once employed in the US, Filipino nurses earned 20 times what they could earn in the Philippines. - US hospitals did not have to increase wages to attract nurses. - Nurses sent remittances home to support their families, which helped to boost the local economy.
The Philippines, however, has lost many well-educated workers. - There has been substantial brain drain in the health care profession. - Philippine government spending on education has not benefited that country directly. If someday the workers return home, then the Philippines will experience an influx of highly skilled health care professionals. In the US, many domestic nurses see their salaries fall (or remain low) because there are so many Filipino nurses willing to work for less.
Remittances In 2005, remittances were estimated to exceed $233 billion. $167 billion went to developing nations. - each wire transfer is usually less than a couple of hundred dollars
remittances being sent to Mexico
Remittances are more stable and evenly distributed than foreign investment: - Even when other parts of the economy are doing poorly, remittances will still flow in. - The majority of foreign investment goes to a few countries. Remittances have been growing in recent years: 1. restrictions on foreign exchange have been relaxed 2. competition has decreased the fees on wire transfers 3. ID cards for foreign workers has made it easier to work abroad 4. many governments offer matching programs for remittances used in local community projects 5. realization that remittances can help decrease poverty, encouraged by the World Bank
The Economist 11/23/2006
E. Illegal Immigration Why do you suppose that so many people choose to migrate illegally instead of going through the appropriate process? - The expected benefits must outweigh the costs. Since the 1990s, illegal immigration has become an increasingly important international issue. The increase in illegal immigration has been fueled by: 1. push ± pull factors 2. increased mobility of people / transportation networks 3. organized crime involvement 4. increases in incomes in some sending countries
human smuggling = the person has consented to be transported and is free upon arrival human trafficking = the person may or may not have consented to be transported and is forced to work/serve on arrival -involves coercion, deception, and violence
Both are a relatively low risk, high profit activity for organized crime groups when compared with smuggling of drugs or weapons.
Human Trafficking Stats - UN estimate: $7 billion industry (per year) - US Dept. of State estimate: 600,000 ± 800,000 people are trafficked internationally each year. 70% female 50% children - CIA report: 45,000 ± 50,000 women and children are brought into the US under false pretenses each year. - UNICEF: 200,000 children are enslaved by cross-border smuggling in West and Central Africa. - Victims often end up working in agricultural, domestic, factory, or sex industry jobs. Men end up in the ³3-D´ jobs: dirty, difficult, dangerous.
F. ³Borders Beyond Control´ There is some migration of people between - developed nations and developed nations - developing nations and developing nations Problems arise when people migrate from developing to developed nations. 1. skilled workers legally emigrating from developing nations 2. unskilled migrants entering developed nations looking for work 3. involuntary migration / asylum seeking
Why are skilled workers leaving developing nations? - lack of opportunities How can developing nations benefit from skilled workers leaving? - ³diaspora´ model ± immigrants remain tied to their country of origin (taxes, network) To stop illegal immigration, several alternatives have been tried: - punishing the immigrants¶ countries of origin - tighter border controls - sanctions on employers - harsher punishments for illegals Three major factors have prevented these methods from working.
1. civil ± society organizations have increased in number and in influence - watch for human rights violations - vocal in the media - help migrants 2. sanctions on employers don¶t work - judges find it hard to punish firms who¶s only ³crime´ is hiring an illegal immigrant 3. sociology / politics of ethnic groups undercut enforcement - illegals ³disappear´ into ethnic groups - legal immigrants are gaining political clout
What should governments in developed nations do? - pursue policies that integrate migrants into their new homes while minimizing the social costs and maximizing the economic benefits - education for children - limited civic rights - direct where resettlement happens
G. Many nations are dealing with immigration issues. In 2004, 10 eastern European countries joined the European Union. - Cyprus - Estonia - Hungary - Latvia - Lithuania - Slovenia - Poland - Slovakia - Czech Republic - Malta In 2007, Bulgaria and Romania also joined.
Western European countries have been affected by the EU enlargement. (UK)
H. US Immigration Policy US immigration policy reflects multiple goals: - It serves to reunite families by admitting immigrants who already have family members living in the US. - It seeks to admit workers with specific skills and to fill positions in occupations that are experiencing a labor shortage. - It attempts to provide a refuge for people who face the risk of political, racial, or religious persecution in their country of origin. - It seeks to ensure diversity by providing admission to people from countries with historically low rates of immigration to the US.
US Immigration Timeline process for immigrants to become US citizens established first law limiting immigration (criminals, prostitutes) Office of Immigration created Quota Act - annual immigration is capped at 350,000 - nationality quota instituted (to restrict immigrants from eastern and southern Europe) 1924: National Origins Act - annual immigration is capped at 165,000 - nationality quotas also reduced 1927: cap is reduced to 150,000 (made permanent in 1929 ± 70% from western Europe, 30% from eastern Europe) 1948: Displaced Persons Act ± 400,000 people displaced by WWII were allowed entry to US
1790: 1875: 1881: 1921:
1965: Immigration Act amended - got rid of national-origins quota system - cap of 170,000 from eastern hemisphere and 120,000 from western hemisphere - categorical preference system established 1978: worldwide immigration cap of 290,000 1980: Refugee Act - refugees are handled as a class separate from immigrants - immigration cap lowered to 270,000 1986: Immigration Reform and Control Act - annual cap raised to 540,000 - amnesty granted to illegal aliens able to prove continuous residence in US since January 1, 1982 - introduced harsh penalties for employers of illegal aliens 1990: Immigration Act of 1990 - cap raised to 700,000 for 1992, 1993, 1994 - ³flexible´ cap of 675,000 27
1996: Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act - addressed border enforcement - reduced government benefits available to immigrants - employment verification pilot program
Briefing: the US-Mexican Border The Economist 10.4.2008
The US ± Mexican border is about 2,000 miles long. Before the early 1990s, those who wanted to cross illegally usually headed for Tijuana and Juarez. - wait for night - scale the small fence - run for San Diego or El Paso 1993, taller fences were built in the busy sections of CA and TX. - assumed physical barriers would stop crossers in the cities and geography would stop them elsewhere
1994 to 2000: apprehensions around San Diego fell by 2/3 Immigrants started crossing in the desert. - in the 1990s, about 125 people died - since 2000, more than 1,000 people have died
The fence is changing the patterns of illegal immigration. Is it reducing illegal immigration? - Border Patrol reports catching fewer people - surveys suggest half of all (illegal) immigrants are apprehended on any given trip - virtually all eventually get through - 30% know someone who has died trying
The slowdown in remittances is more likely due to the slowdown in certain sectors of the economy. - collapse of housing market means fewer jobs in construction and landscaping
Steve Johnston (lives near Sasabe, AZ) and has been leaving food and water in the desert. - leave 80 gallons one day - next day only 8 gallons are left He reports seeing groups as large as 40 people hiking together in the desert.
Migration used to be circular. - cross for seasonal work, cross home to be with family Now it is linear. - cross once and bring whole family
Attitudes in the border states vary. - CA fences, smallest border with Mexico - AZ has crossings from migrants deterred by CA and TX fences -- AZ fence is broadly popular - TX ³cool´ to the fence
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