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ESTADISTICA

© All Rights Reserved

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Assessment

These are non dimensional constants used to describe capability

In 6 Sigma organizations they are more useful than percentage

yields

Flowserve is Six Sigma capable in only a few processes so we

tend not to use these indices. However it is not uncommon for

Six Sigma aware customers to ask use to describe our capability

using these measures.

Cp

99% good. For many years in

high volume manufacturing this

was the goal for process

capabilities.

Once you go beyond 3 sigma

process capabilities are measured

in fractions of percentages the

the sigma (Cp) scale is used. Cp

assumes that you have a normal

process centered halfway between

the specification limits

process. (i.e. from the mean to the

spec limits = 3 sigma) Cp 1, your

yield is 99%

USL LSL

Cp

6 * sshort term

then Cp increases. If you halve

the variation in a 3 sigma process

it becomes a 6 sigma process &

Cp = 2

Cpk

Cpk is that Cp assumes the voice

of the process is centered half way

between the sigma limits and Cpk

uses the actual voice of the

process mean.

The bigger the difference between

Cp and Cpk the greater

opportunity there is to improve the

process capability by centering.

For some simple processes this is

valuable information as you only

need change an offset to increase

capability

USL LSL

Cp

6 * s short term

Cpk min (Cpk(USL) , Cpk(LSL) )

Cpk(USL)

(USL X)

3 * sshort term

Cpk(LSL)

(X LSL)

3 * sshort term

Short -Term Capability Indices

Cpk LSL to identify Cpk

instead of Cp when you do not

have both upper and lower

specification limits .

USL LSL

Cp

6 * s short term

Cpk min (Cpk(USL) , Cpk(LSL) )

Cpk(USL)

(USL X)

3 * sshort term

Cpk(LSL)

(X LSL)

3 * sshort term

Cpm

this, but for completeness..

In some processes you will not

target the center point.

Example cutting impellers you

want to cut an impeller diameter

between 196 and 200 mm

It may be cheaper to bias the target

cut towards say 199mm instead of

198mm

199mm we want to measure the

process against the target

instead of the center point

over a long period we expect the

capability of a process to

deteriorate

Also we estimate that the

difference between the short term

capability and long term capability

will be 1.5 sigma

So if a project team achieves a

process that is 99% capable (ST)

we expect it to be 80% capable

(LT) and to create a process that is

50% good (LT) we aim for 93%

(ST)

Short Term

Sigma

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

Long Term

Sigma

Long term

yield

Yield

4.5

4

99.9997%

3.5

3

99.9767%

2.5

2

99.3790%

1.5

1

93%

0.5

0

69%

99.9968%

99.865%

97.72%

84%

50%

99.865%

99.379%

97.725%

93.319%

84%

69%

50%

31%

16%

7%

term mean? It depends! as a

guide:

Long term is more likely

to include special causes

Long term is likely to

include mixtures of

batches, parts and include

changing personnel

Long term capability does

not get worse.

Short Term

Sigma

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

Long Term

Sigma

Long term

yield

Yield

4.5

4

99.9997%

3.5

3

99.9767%

2.5

2

99.3790%

1.5

1

93%

0.5

0

69%

99.9968%

99.865%

97.72%

84%

50%

99.865%

99.379%

97.725%

93.319%

84%

69%

50%

31%

16%

7%

The only difference between calculating the C and P

is that you use the short term sigma level for C.. And the

long term sigma level for P.

Remember long term capability = short term capability +

1.5

Between Pp

long term sigma levels.

It relies on your ability to group data. For example you collect the

shipments per day. However you know that there is a pattern of

shipments during the week so you group the shipments into weeks.

You can now calculate the average for each week and the standard

deviation for each week. The overall variation is made up of two

components the variation within each week and the variation

between each week.

Next the assumption that the variation within each week corresponds

to short term and the variation between the weeks is long term. By

taking these two variations in turn you derive the standard deviation

and hence Cp, Pp etc

Between Pp

select these two

variations in turn you

derive the standard

deviation and hence Cp,

Pp etc

Overall variation = short

term variation + long term

variation

A large difference

between the Overall and

Within Capability indices

may indicate the process

is out of control.

LB

USL

Within

Overall

Process Data

LB

0

Target

*

USL

5

Sample Mean 4.81481

Sample N

27

StDev(Within) 2.18221

StDev(Overall) 3.77818

Cp

*

CPL

*

CPU 0.03

Cpk 0.03

Overall Capability

Pp

*

PPL

*

PPU 0.02

Ppk 0.02

Cpm

*

-4

O bserved Performance

PPM < LB

0.00

PPM > USL 518518.52

PPM Total

518518.52

PPM < LB

*

PPM > USL 466185.90

PPM Total

466185.90

12

PPM < LB

*

PPM > USL 480453.93

PPM Total

480453.93

diagram shows predicted ppm

defect rates. The figures are not

measured but calculated assuming

that the VoP will be normal and

using the observed average,

standard deviation, sample size

and the spec limits.

Information is presented as

number of ppm exceeding each

spec limit.

You will probably wish to simplify

into percentages

LB

USL

Within

Overall

Process Data

LB

0

Target

*

USL

5

Sample Mean

4.81481

Sample N

27

StDev(Within)

2.18221

StDev(O verall) 3.77818

Cp

*

CPL

*

CPU 0.03

Cpk 0.03

O verall Capability

Pp

PPL

PPU

Ppk

Cpm

-4

O bserved Performance

PPM < LB

0.00

PPM > USL 518518.52

PPM Total

518518.52

PPM < LB

*

PPM > USL 466185.90

PPM Total

466185.90

12

PPM < LB

*

PPM > USL 480453.93

PPM Total

480453.93

*

*

0.02

0.02

*

teams?

Champion understands CPk, Within

variation and parts per million, please edit

the graph and delete that information

Also please make the title legible

It is often best to print the pictures for

sharing with non Minitab users rather than

asking them to look at your screen

Lower Specification Limit

LSL

Within

Overall

Process Data

LSL

200

Target

*

USL

*

Sample Mean

226.976

Sample N

21

StDev(Within)

3.04521

StDev(Overall) 11.1206

200

Cp

*

CPL 2.95

CPU

*

Cpk 2.95

Overall Capability

Pp

PPL

PPU

Ppk

Cpm

200

Observed Performance

PPM < LSL 0.00

PPM > USL

*

PPM Total

0.00

210

PPM < LSL 0.00

PPM > USL

*

PPM Total

0.00

220

230

240

PPM < LSL 7637.71

PPM > USL

*

PPM Total

7637.71

250

*

0.81

*

0.81

*

210

220

230

240

Summary

picture

For GB start with observed

capability

In the long term capability gets

worse

capability You could

describe the capability

using - % good, parts per

million, sigma level, Cp,

Pp

The one you use will

depend on your audience

Exercise

that lead time is a problem,

customers want lead times less

than 25 days and here are the

lead times of the last 20 orders

29,15,21,16,30,25,20,28,

21,22,28,30,24,23,45,25,

42,23,27,19

What is the capability?

How do you interpret the EDA

output?

Create a PowerPoint slide

which you would use to explain

the capability to your

champion?

Wrong Answer

Process Capability of C1

LB

USL

Within

Overall

Process Data

LB

0

Target

*

USL

25

Sample Mean

25.65

Sample N

20

StDev(Within)

7.93206

StDev(O verall) 7.57008

Cp

*

CPL

*

CPU -0.03

Cpk

-0.03

O verall Capability

Pp

PPL

PPU

Ppk

Cpm

0

O bserved Performance

PPM < LB

0.00

PPM > USL 400000.00

PPM Total

400000.00

10

PPM < LB

*

PPM > USL 532655.13

PPM Total

532655.13

20

30

40

PPM < LB

*

PPM > USL 534212.87

PPM Total

534212.87

*

*

-0.03

-0.03

*

Better Answer

Anderson-Darling Normality Test

A-Squared:

0.7439

p-value:

0.0439

10

20

30

40

50

10

20

30

40

Mean

Std Dev

Variance

Skewness

Kurtosis

n of data

25.6500

7.4712

55.8184

1.2583

1.9857

20.0000

Minimum

1st Quartile

Median

3rd Quartile

Maximum

15.0000

21.0000

24.5000

28.7500

45.0000

22.1534

29.1466

50

5.6818

10.9122

95% Confidence I nterval for Median

21.2352

28.0000

Which may mean that we are looking at

Granularity perhaps there is a reason that

there is a gap around orders taking 30-40

days

Or perhaps we have two catastrophic

failures

or perhaps there is a mixture of more than

one type of order.

Next step is to investigate these two orders

with the team.

With the two values to the right excluded

the remaining data is normal. 75% of

orders are shipped in 28 days or less and

we can expect an average lead time

between 21 and 26 days std deviation 7

days.. continued

Anderson-Darling Normality Test

A-Squared:

0.2279

p-value:

0.7800

15

20

25

30

15

20

25

Mean

Std Dev

Variance

Skewness

Kurtosis

n of data

23.6667

4.5244

20.4706

-0.3082

-0.6675

18.0000

Minimum

1st Quartile

Median

3rd Quartile

Maximum

15.0000

20.7500

23.5000

28.0000

30.0000

21.4167

25.9166

30

3.3951

6.7828

95% Confidence I nterval for Median

21.0000

27.4820

LB

USL

Process Data

LB

0

Target

*

USL

25

Sample Mean

23.6667

Sample N

18

StDev(Within)

5.00626

StDev(O verall) 4.59143

Within

Overall

Potential (Within) Capability

Cp

*

CPL

*

CPU 0.09

Cpk 0.09

O verall Capability

Pp

PPL

PPU

Ppk

Cpm

0

O bserved Performance

PPM < LB

0.00

PPM > USL 333333.33

PPM Total

333333.33

Exp.

PPM

PPM

PPM

10

Within Performance

< LB

*

> USL 394991.25

Total

394991.25

15

20

25

30

PPM < LB

*

PPM > USL 385756.67

PPM Total

385756.67

35

*

*

0.10

0.10

*

shows long term Capability

61%

LB

USL

10

15

20

25

30

there is a reason that there is a gap

around orders taking 30-40 days as

we pull orders into this month if

possible. The two orders later than

this were delayed by the customer

Unless we have more customer

delays we can expect around 66%

of orders to be within customer

expectations

To achieve 90% or better we need

to make significant process

changes to reduce the average lead

time by around 5 days

Practice

Using data from a project you or your Green Belt are

working on create power point slides to describe the

Capability

Quantitative Capability

Assessment

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