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DBM

Quantitative Techniques in Management

Semester - 1

Session - 3

Random Experiment

process that leads to one of several possible

outcomes. For example:

Experiment

Outcomes

Flipacoin

Heads,Tails

ExamMarks

Numbers:0,1,2,...,100

AssemblyTime

t>0seconds

CourseGrades

F,D,C,B,A,A+

Probabilities

List: Called the Sample Space

Outcomes: Called the Simple Events

included.

Die roll {1,2,3,4,5}

Die roll {1,2,3,4,5,6}

occur at the same time:

Die roll {odd number or even number}

Die roll{ number less than 4 or even number}

Sample Space

A list of exhaustive [dont leave anything out] and mutually

exclusive outcomes [impossible for 2 different events to

occur in the same experiment] is called a sample space

and is denoted by S.

The outcomes are denoted by O1, O2, , Ok

Using notation from set theory, we can represent the

sample space and its outcomes as:

Requirements of Probabilities

probabilities assigned to the outcome must satisfy

these requirements:

(2) The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes

equals 1

P(Oi)representstheprobabilityofoutcomei

There are three ways to assign a probability, P(Oi), to

an outcome, Oi, namely:

Classical approach: make certain assumptions (such

as equally likely, independence) about situation.

Relative frequency: assigning probabilities based on

experimentation or historical data.

Subjective approach: Assigning probabilities based

on the assignors judgment. [Bayesian]

Classical Approach

If an experiment has n possible outcomes [all equally

likely to occur], this method would assign a probability

of 1/n to each outcome.

Experiment: Rolling a die

Sample Space:

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Probabilities: Each sample point has a 1/6 chance of

occurring.

What about randomly selecting a student and observing

their gender? S = {Male, Female}

Are these probabilities ?

Classical Approach

Experiment: Rolling 2 die [dice] and summing 2

What are the

numbers on top.

underlying, unstated

Sample Space: S = {2, 3, , 12} assumptions??

Probability Examples:

1

2

3

4

5

6

P(2) = 1/36

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

P(7) = 6/36

P(10) = 3/36

10

10

11

10

11

12

Relative Frequency

Approach

computer systems it sells over a month (30 days):

For example,

10 days out of 30

2 desktops were sold.

DesktopsSold

#ofDays

2

From this we can construct

the estimated probabilities of an event 3

(i.e. the # of desktop sold on a given day)

4

10

12

5

DesktopsSold[X]

#ofDays

DesktopsSold

2/30 = .07 =

P(X=1)

10

10/30 = .33 =

P(X=2)

12

12/30 = .40 =

P(X=3)

5/30 = .17 =

P(X=4)

3

4

= 1.00

There is a 40% chance Bits & Bytes will sell

3 desktops on

any given day [Based on estimates obtained from sample of

30 days]

Subjective Approach

In the subjective approach we define probability

as the degree of belief that we hold in the

occurrence of an event

P(you drop this course)

P(NASA successfully land a man on the moon)

P(girlfriend says yes when you ask her to marry

you)

An individual outcome of a sample space is called a

simple event [cannot break it down into several

other events],

An event is a collection or set of one or more simple

events in a sample space.

Roll of a die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Simple event: the number 3 will be rolled

Event: an even number (one of 2, 4, or 6) will be rolled

The probability of an event is the sum of the

probabilities of the simple events that constitute the

event.

E.g. (assuming a fair die) S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and

P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = P(6) = 1/6

Then:

P(EVEN) = P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 3/6

= 1/2

Interpreting Probability

One way to interpret probability is this:

If a random experiment is repeated an infinite number of

times, the relative frequency for any given outcome is

the probability of this outcome.

For example, the probability of heads in flip of a

balanced coin is .5, determined using the classical

approach. The probability is interpreted as being the

long-term relative frequency of heads if the coin is

flipped an infinite number of times.

Probability

that result from combining other events in various

ways.

There are several types of combinations and

relationships between events:

Complement of an event [everything other than that

event]

Intersection of two events [event A and event B] or [A*B]

Union of two events [event A or event B] or [A+B]

Example

Why are some mutual fund managers more successful

than others? One possible factor is where the manager

earned his or her MBA. The following table compares

mutual fund performance against the ranking of the school

where the fund manager earned their MBA: Where do we

get these probabilities from? [population or sample?]

Mutual fund outperforms

the market

outperform the market

.11

.29

.06

.54

fund outperforms AND the manager

was in a top-20 MBA program; its a

joint probability [intersection].

Example

A1 = Fund manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program

A2 = Fund manager did not graduate from a top-20 MBA program

B1 = Fund outperforms the market

B2 = Fund does not outperform the market

B1

B2

A1

.11

.29

A2

.06

.54

E.g.P(A2andB1)=.06

=theprobabilityafundoutperformsthemarket

andthemanagerisntfromatop20school.

Marginal Probabilities

Marginal probabilities are computed by adding across rows and down columns; that

is they are calculated in the margins of the table:

P(A2)=.06+.54

whatstheprobabilityafund

managerisntfromatopschool?

B1

B2

P(Ai)

A1

.11

.29

.40

A2

.06

.54

.60

P(Bj)

.17

.83

1.00

P(B1)=.11+.06

whatstheprobabilityafund

outperformsthemarket?

BOTHmarginsmustaddto1

(usefulerrorcheck)

Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is used to determine how two

events are related; that is, we can determine the

probability of one event given the occurrence of another

related event.

Experiment: random select one student in class.

P(randomly selected student is male) =

P(randomly selected student is male/student is on 3 rd

row) =

Conditional probabilities are written as P(A | B) and read

as the probability of A given B and is calculated as:

Conditional Probability

Again, the probability of an event given that another

event has occurred is called a conditional probability

Keep this in mind!

Conditional Probability

Whats the probability that a fund will

outperform the market given that the

manager graduated from a top-20 MBA

program?

Recall:

A1 = Fund manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program

A2 = Fund manager did not graduate from a top-20 MBA program

B1 = Fund outperforms the market

B2 = Fund does not outperform the market

Conditional Probability

We want to calculate

P(BB12 | A1)

B1

P(Ai)

A1

.11

.29

.40

A2

.06

.54

.60

P(Bj)

.17

.83

1.00

Thus,thereisa27.5%chancethatthatafundwilloutperformthemarket

giventhatthemanagergraduatedfromatop20MBAprogram.

Independence

One of the objectives of calculating conditional

probability is to determine whether two events are

related.

In particular, we would like to know whether they are

independent, that is, if the probability of one event is

not affected by the occurrence of the other event.

Two events A and B are said to be independent if

P(you have a flat tire going home/radio quits working)

Independence

For example, we saw that

P(B1 | A1) = .275

The marginal probability for B1 is: P(B1) = 0.17

Since P(B1|A1) P(B1), B1 and A1 are not independent

events.

Stated another way, they are dependent. That is, the

probability of one event (B1) is affected by the occurrence of

the other event (A1).

Union

A1orB1occurswhenever:

A1andB1occurs,A1andB2occurs,orA2andB1occurs

B1

B2

P(Ai)

A1

.11

.29

.40

A2

.06

.54

.60

.17

.83

1.00

P(Bj)

P(A1 or B1) = .11 + .06 + .29 = .46

We introduce three rules that enable us to calculate the

probability of more complex events from the probability of

simpler events

The Complement Rule May be easier to calculate the

probability of the complement of an event and then

substract it from 1.0 to get the probability of the event.

P(at least one head when you flip coin 100 times)

The Multiplication Rule: P(A*B) way I write it

The Addition Rule: P(A+B) way I write it

Example

female students. The professor wants to select two students

at random to help her conduct a research project. What is the

probability that the two students chosen are female?

P(F1 * F2) = ???

Let F1 represent the event that the first student is female

P(F1) = 3/10 = .30

What about the second student?

P(F2 /F1) = 2/9 = .22

P(F1 * F2) = P(F1) * P(F2 /F1) = (.30)*(.22) = 0.066

NOTE: 2 events are NOT independent.

Addition Rule

probability of event A or B or both A and B

occurring; i.e. the union of A and B.

Why do we subtract the joint probability P(A and

B) from the sum of the probabilities of A and B?

P(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AandB)

Addition Rule

By adding P(A) plus P(B) we add P(A and B) twice. To correct we

subtract P(A and B) from P(A) + P(B)

B1

B2

P(Ai)

A1

.11

.29

.40

A2

.06

.54

.60

P(Bj)

.17

.83

1.00

(A1 or B1) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) = .40 + .17 - .11 = .46

If and A and B are mutually exclusive the occurrence

of one event makes the other one impossible. This

means that

The addition rule for mutually exclusive events is

Example

and the Post. The circulation departments report that 22%

of the citys households have a subscription to the Sun

and 35% subscribe to the Post. A survey reveals that 6%

of all households subscribe to both newspapers. What

proportion of the citys households subscribe to either

newspaper?

That is, what is the probability of selecting a household at

random that subscribes to the Sun or the Post or both?

P(Sun or Post) = P(Sun) + P(Post) P(Sun and Post)

= .22 + .35 .06 = .51

Bayes Law

Bayes Law is named for Thomas Bayes, an

eighteenth century mathematician.

In its most basic form, if we know P(B | A),

we can apply Bayes Law to determine P(A | B)

P(B|A)

P(A|B)

forexample

Bayesian Terminology

The probabilities P(A) and P(AC) are called prior

probabilities because they are determined

prior to the decision about taking the

preparatory course.

The conditional probability P(A | B) is called a

posterior probability (or revised probability),

because the prior probability is revised after the

decision about taking the preparatory course.

The Rapid Test is used to determine whether someone

has HIV [H]. The false positive and false negative rates

are 0.05 P(+/ Hc) and 0.09 P(-/H) respectively.

The doctor just received a positive test results on one

of their patients [assumed to be in a low risk group for

HIV]. The low risk group is known to have a 6% P(H)

probability of having HIV. What is the probability that this

patient actually has HIV [after they tested positive]. Feel

free to use a table to work this problem

P(H) = 0.06

**** P(Hc) = ?

P(+/ Hc) = 0.05

**** P(-/ Hc) = ?

P(-/H) = 0.09

**** P(+/H) = ?

Transplant operations for hearts have the risk that the body may reject the

organ. A new test has been developed to detect early warning signs that the

body may be rejecting the heart. However, the test is not perfect. When the

test is conducted on someone whose heart will be rejected, approximately

two out of ten tests will be negative (the test is wrong). When the test is

conducted on a person whose heart will not be rejected, 10% will show a

positive test result (another incorrect result). Doctors know that in about

50% of heart transplants the body tries to reject the organ.

*Suppose the test was performed on my mother and the test is

positive (indicating early warning signs of rejection). What is the

probability that the body is attempting to reject the heart?

*Suppose the test was performed on my mother and the test is negative

(indicating no signs of rejection). What is the probability that the body is

attempting to reject the heart?

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Random Variable

probabilities.

For example, if you roll a die, the outcome is random (not fixed)

and there are 6 possible outcomes, each of which occur with

probability one-sixth.

For example, if you poll people about their voting preferences,

the percentage of the sample that responds Yes on

Proposition 100 is a also a random variable (the percentage

will be slightly differently every time you poll).

occur if we repeat the experiment over and over (frequentist view)

discrete or continuous

Discrete random variables have a

countable number of outcomes

Examples: Dead/alive, treatment/placebo,

dice, counts, etc.

infinite continuum of possible values.

Examples: blood pressure, weight, the

speed of a car, the real numbers from 1 to

6.

possible values of the random variable and

their corresponding probabilities. A

probability distribution can be in the form of

a table, graph or mathematical formula.

for the random variable X, where X represents

the number of DVDs a person rents from a video

store during a single visit.

Answer:

0.16 + 0.18 + 0.22 + 0.10 + 0.3 + 0.01 =

0.97 <1 , Not a probability distribution.

Variable

Compute the mean of the following probability

distribution which represents the number of DVDs

a person rents from a video store during a single

visit.

Mean=0*0.06+1*0.58+2

*0.22+3* 0.1+4

*0.03+5*0.01

= 1.49

EXAMPLE

the following probability distribution which

represents the number of DVDs a person rents

from a video store during a single visit.

The variance=(0-1.49)^2*0.06+(11.49)^2*0.58

+(2-1.49)^2*0.22+(3-1.49)^2*0.1

+(4-1.49)^2*0.03+(5-1.49)^2*0.01

=0.8699

Standard Deviation= 0.932684

Practice Problem:

random variable represented by x. The probability distribution

for x is:

x

P(x

)

10

.4

11

.2

12

.2

13

.1

14

.1

a.

b.

c.

p(x=14)= .1

Practice Problem:

ask them to each randomly pick an integer between 1

and 10. Assuming, their picks are truly random:

Whats your best guess for how many students picked the

number 9?

of the 1000 students to pick 9. 100 students.

a number less than or equal to 6?

1/10 + 1/10 =.6 60%22

Binomial

Yes/no outcomes (dead/alive,

treated/untreated, smoker/non-smoker,

sick/well, etc.)

Poisson

Counts (e.g., how many cases of disease in a

given area)

Continuous case

The probability function that accompanies a

continuous random variable is a continuous

mathematical function that integrates to 1.

The probabilities associated with

continuous functions are just areas under

the curve (integrals!).

Probabilities are given for a range of values,

rather than a particular value (e.g., the

probability of getting a math SAT score

between 700 and 800 is 2%).

Continuous case

For example, recall the negative

exponential function (in probability, this

is called an exponential distribution):

f ( x) e x

This function integrates to 1:

e

0

0 1 1

Discrete case:

E( X )

x p(x )

i

all x

Continuous case:

E( X )

xi p(xi )dx

all x

Expected Value

Sample mean, for a sample of n subjects: =

n

x

i 1

i 1

1

xi ( )

n

in the sample is 1/n.

Variance, formally

Discrete case:

Var ( X )

2

(x )

i

p(xi )

all x

Continuous case:

Var ( X ) ( xi ) p ( xi )dx

2

Practice Problem

A roulette wheel has the numbers 1

through 36, as well as 0 and 00. If you bet

$1.00 that an odd number comes up, you

win or lose $1.00 according to whether or

not that event occurs. If X denotes your

net gain, X=1 with probability 18/38 and

X= -1 with probability 20/38.

We already calculated the mean to be = $.053. Whats the variance of X?

Answer

2

(x )

p(xi )

all x

(1 .053) 2 (18 / 38) (1 .053) 2 (20 / 38)

(1.053) 2 (18 / 38) (.947) 2 (20 / 38)

.997

.997 .99

Standard deviation is $.99. Interpretation: On average, youre

either 1 dollar above or 1 dollar below the mean, which is just

under zero. Makes sense!

Handy calculation formula (if you ever need to calculate by hand!):

Var ( X )

(x )

i

p(xi )

all x

p(xi ) ( )

all x

E ( x ) [ E ( x)]

2

Intervening algebra!

Examples of discrete

probability distributions:

The binomial and Poisson

distributions

An experiment is said to be a binomial experiment

provided

1. The experiment is performed a fixed number of

times. Each repetition of the experiment is called a

trial.

2. The trials are independent. This means the

outcome of one trial will not affect the outcome of the

other trials.

3. For each trial, there are two mutually exclusive

outcomes, success or failure.

4. The probability of success is fixed for each trial of

the experiment.

Binomial Probability Distribution

There are n independent trials of the experiment

Let p denote the probability of success so that

1 p is the probability of failure.

Let x denote the number of successes in n

independent trials of the experiment. So, 0 < x < n.

surveyed

e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not

defective light bulb

Generally called success and failure

Probability of success is p, probability of failure is 1 p

we toss the coin

Binomial example

Take the example of 5 coin tosses. Whats

the probability that you flip exactly 3 heads

in 5 coin tosses?

Binomial distribution

Solution:

One way to get exactly 3 heads: HHHTT

Whats the probability of this exact arrangement?

P(heads)xP(heads) xP(heads)xP(tails)xP(tails)

=(1/2)3 x (1/2)2

Another way to get exactly 3 heads: THHHT

Probability of this exact outcome = (1/2)1 x (1/2)3 x

(1/2)1 = (1/2)3 x (1/2)2

Binomial distribution

In fact, (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 is the probability of

each unique outcome that has exactly 3

heads and 2 tails.

So, the overall probability of 3 heads and 2

tails is:

(1/2)3 x (1/2)2 + (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 + (1/2)3 x (1/2)2

+ .. for as many unique arrangements as

there arebut how many are there??

5

3

ways to

arrange 3

heads in

5 trials

C3 = 5!/3!2! = 10

Outcome

Probability

THHHT

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

HHHTT

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

TTHHH

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

HTTHH

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

HHTTH

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

THTHH

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

HTHTH

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

HHTHT

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

THHTH

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

HTHHT

(1/2)3x(1/2)2

10 arrangements x (1/2)3x(1/2)2

The probability

of each unique

outcome (note:

they are all

equal)

3

2

P(3 heads and 2 tails) = xP(heads)

xP(tails)

=

3

10x()5=31.25%

happen at a constant rate over time, the Poisson

distribution gives the probability of X number of

events occurring in time T.

Mean

Deviation

2

For a Poisson

random variable,

the variance and

mean are the

same!

where = expected number of hits in a given

time period

The Poisson distribution models counts, such as the number of new cases

of SARS that occur in women in New England next month.

The distribution tells you the probability of all possible numbers of new

cases, from 0 to infinity.

If X= # of new cases next month and X ~ Poisson (), then the probability

that X=k (a particular count) is:

e

p( X k )

k!

Example

For example, if new cases of West Nile

Virus in New England are occurring at a

rate of about 2 per month, then these are

the probabilities that: 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to

1000 to 1 million to cases will occur in

New England in the next month:

X

0

1

P(X)

2 0 e 2

0!

2 1 e 2

=.135

=.27

1!

2 2 e 2

2!

=.27

2 3 e 2

=.18

3!

2 4 e 2

4!

=.09

Suppose that a rare disease has an incidence of 1 in 1000 personyears. Assuming that members of the population are affected

independently, find the probability of k cases in a population of

10,000 (followed over 1 year) for k=0,1,2.

The expected value (mean) = = .001*10,000 = 10

10 new cases expected in this population per year

(10) 0 e (10 )

P( X 0)

.0000454

0!

(10)1 e (10 )

P( X 1)

.000454

1!

(10) 2 e (10 )

P ( X 2)

.00227

2!

more on Poisson

Poisson Process (rates)

Note that the Poisson parameter can be given as

the mean number of events that occur in a defined

time period OR, equivalently, can be given as a

rate, such as =2/month (2 events per 1 month) that

must be multiplied by t=time (called a Poisson

Process)

X ~ Poisson ()

( t ) k e t

P( X k )

k!

E(X) = t

Var(X) = t

Example

For example, if new cases of West Nile

in New England are occurring at a rate

of about 2 per month, then whats the

probability that exactly 4 cases will

occur in the next 3 months?

X ~ Poisson (=2/month)

( 2 * 3) 4 e ( 2*3) 6 4 e ( 6 )

P(X 4 in 3 months)

13.4%

4!

4!

Exactly 6 cases?

( 2 * 3) 6 e ( 2*3) 6 6 e ( 6 )

P(X 6 in 3 months)

16%

6!

6!

Practice problems

1a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson

process with a constant rate =2 calls per

hour, whats the probability that, if you

forget to turn your phone off in a 1.5 hour

movie, your phone rings during that time?

1b. How many phone calls do you expect to

get during the movie?

Answer

1a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson process with a

constant rate =2 calls per hour, whats the probability that, if

you forget to turn your phone off in a 1.5 hour movie, your

phone rings during that time?

X ~ Poisson (=2 calls/hour)

P(X1)=1 P(X=0)

P ( X 0)

e 3 .05

0!

0!

P(X1)=1 .05 = 95% chance

1b. How many phone calls do you expect to get during the movie?

E(X) = t = 2(1.5) = 3

can be used to approximate binomial

probabilities provided the number of trials

n > 100 and np < 10. In other words, the

number of independent trials of the binomial

experiment should be large and the

probability of success should be small.

To: sjain@amity.edu

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