Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll June 2010

Date Published: 4th June 2010

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Methodology

Objective of the Survey
The objective of the survey was to assess voters views on issues around the draft constitution including voting intentions and prediction of the likely outcome of the referendum.

To inform and act as a planning guide for the various stakeholders involved in the referendum process and to inform public debate

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Poll Methodology
Dates of polling Sample Size Sampling methodology Universe May 22nd ± May 28th 6017 respondents Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Recently registered voters by IIEC

Data collection methodology Sampling error

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level

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Sample Distribution
Province National Population distribution (over 18 years) 10% 14% 9% 16% 3% 14% 24% 11% Distribution of registered voters (IIEC Register) 10% 16% 8% 16% 2% 14% 24% 11% Survey Sample distribution

Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western

10% 16% 8% 16% 2% 14% 24% 11%

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Media coverage on draft constitutional matters

Constitutional issues media coverage (1st to 30th May 2010)

TV 14%

Print 15%

Radio 71%

Overall : 6,746 articles across 9 print titles, 36 radio channels and 5 Tv channels (May 2010)

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Constitutional issues coverage on TV (1st to 30th May 2010)

"Yes" Campaigns General Referendum Issues "No" Campaigns Civic Education Kadhi courts ruling Voter Registration Draft constitution debates Draft publication issues Public Opinion Polls National Prayer Day TJRC issues Party politics IIEC by-elections ICC investigations 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 6% 6% 6% 11% 10% 13% 20%

24%

Share of coverage

25%

30%

TV Basis; 925 items across 5 Tv channels
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Familiarity with the proposed Draft

³How much do you know about the draft constitution?´

Nothing, 13%

A lot, 10% Something, 25%

A little, 51%

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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³What are the sources of what you know about the constitution?´

Radio Television Friends/relatives Print media Personally read draft Religious leaders Politicians Internet Professional associations Employer 5% 2% 1% 19% 17% 17% 32% 31% 43%

58%

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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³How much would you say you know about the draft constitution?´ ± By Gender and Setting

% indicating know a lot/something about the draft

% indicating know a lot/something about the draft

43%

41% 33% 28%

Male

Female

Urban

Rural
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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³How much would you say you know about the draft constitution?´ ± By Province
% indicating Know a lot/something about the draft

45% 39% 38% 36% 34% 33% 31% 21%

Nairobi

Nyanza

Western

Eastern

Central

Rift Valley

Coast

North Eastern

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Views on the draft

³How Decisive are the voters?´ Will not Vote, 4% Indecisive, 19%

Decisive, 77%

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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³When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?´ Will not Vote, 4% Undecided, 19% Yes to approve, 57%

No to reject, 20%

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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³When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?´ Based on those who have made up their minds on how they will vote o to reject, %

Yes to approve, 74%

Base: n=4374 (those who have made up their minds)
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Reasons why you would vote against the proposed constitution
The abortion clause Inclusion of Kadhi courts The land clause Little or no information on the draft Need further amendments Issues around Devolution It doesn't benefit the common man No confidence on the draft The Bill of Rights Religious leaders are against the draft 0% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 20% 40% 60% 80% 32% 37% 55%

Base: n=1141 (those will vote NO)
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Support for the draft by the level of familiarity

100%

% Indicating will vote µyes to approve¶

80%

74% 61%

60%

53%

40%

34%

20%

0% A lot Something A little Nothing

Base: n=3233 (those indicated will vote Yes to approve)
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In you view is the draft constitution a very good constitution that does not need to be amended, a good constitution that needs a few minor amendments, an acceptable constitution that needs major amendments or a bad constitution that should be rejected altogether?
A bad constitution that should be rejected altogether An acceptable 6% constitution that Don't know needs major 10% amendments 7%

Very good constitution that does not need to be amended 27%

A good constitution that needs a few minor amendments 50%

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010

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Support for the draft by support for political personalities and political parties

³If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for if that person was a presidential candidate?´

41%

13%

12%

9%

7%

3% Uhuru Kenyatta

1%

1%

Raila Odinga

Kalonzo Musyoka

Mwai Kibaki

William Ruto

Martha Karua

Charity Eugene Ngilu Wamalwa

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Support for the draft by political personalities followers.

Supporters of: Raila Odinga (n=2490) Mwai Kibaki (n=708) Martha Karua (n=431) Uhuru Kenyatta (n=163) Kalonzo Musyoka (n=778) William Ruto (n=515)

Yes to approve No to reject Undecided 74% 57% 53% 50% 44% 10% 8% 13% 17% 25% 26% 68% 12% 22% 19% 16% 22% 17%

Will not vote 5% 8% 12% 9% 9% 5%

Base: Supporters of each personality

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Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010

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³Which political party do you feel closest to?´

46%

24% 11% 4% 2% Narc 1% KANU 1% Others None

9%

ODM

PNU

ODM Kenya Narc Kenya

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Support for the draft by political parties followers.

Yes to approve 100% 80% 65% 60% 40% 20% 0% ODM
n=2750

No to reject

Undecided

Will not vote

55%

50%

45% 30%

17% 13% 5%

21% 16% 9%

19%18% 13%

17% 9%

PNU
n=1472

Narc Kenya
n=253

ODM Kenya
n=556

Base: Supporters of each Party
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Support for the draft by Provinces.

Yes to approve 88% 76% 65%

No to reject

Undecided

Will not vote

61%

58%

54% 41% 29% 39% 33% 20% 8%

8% 4% 0%

14% 7% 2% Nyanza

18% 11% 7%

21% 16% 14% 9% 12% 9%

20% 15% 11%

19% 10%

North Eastern

Western

Nairobi

Central

Coast

Eastern

Rift Valley

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Religious leaders and the draft

³Should the religious leaders take sides, either ³YES´ or ³No´ on the constitutional referendum?´ Not sure, 12% Yes, 48%

No, 40%

Yes = 50%, No 35%, Not sure 16% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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³Which side would you like the religious leaders to support?´

Neither side, 40%

Yes side, 24%

No side, 17%

Not s re, 1 %

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Poll Methodology
The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6017 respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was distributed across 71 districts. The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll¶s sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95% confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions . The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers¶ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

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Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010

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For further details Please contact: George Waititu Tel: + 254 20 4450 196 Mobile: +254 722206980 George.waititu@synovate .com

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Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010

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