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Improvement

Chapter 8Fundamentals of

Probability

**PowerPoint presentation to accompany
**

Besterfield, Quality Improvement, 9e

Outline

Definition of Probability

Theorems of Probability

Counting of Events

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distribution

Quality Improvement, 9e

Dale H. Besterfield

2

© 2013, 2008 by Pearson Higher Education, Inc

Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved

Learning Objectives

When you have completed this chapter you

should be able to:

Define probability using the frequency

definition.

Know the seven basic theorems of

probability.

Identify the various discrete and

continuous

Quality Improvement, 9e

Dale H. Besterfield

probability distributions.

3

© 2013, 2008 by Pearson Higher Education, Inc

Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved

Binomial and Poisson distributions. Inc Upper Saddle River. Binomial and Poisson distributions. Know when to use the Hypergeometric.Learning Objectives cont’d. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield 4 © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. When you have completed this chapter you should be able to: Calculate the probability of non- conforming units occuring using the Hypergeometric. Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H.

Inc Upper Saddle River. When a die is tossed.Definition of Probability Likelihood.. tendency.. If a Nickel is tossed. Drawing a card from a deck of cards. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .. The chance that something will happen. and trend.. chance. 9e Dale H. Besterfield 5 © 2013. the probability of one spot is 1/6. Quality Improvement. the probability of two spots is 1/6. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. The probability of a spade is 13/52.. the probability of a head is 1/2 and the probability of the tail is 1/2.

Figure 7-1 Probability Distributions Quality Improvement. Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .(1/2 + 1/2 = 1.(13/52+13/52+13/52+13/52=1.000 .000 .000) For Deck of Cards is equal to 1.Note!! For Nickel the probability is equal to 1. 9e Dale H.(1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6=1. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.000) Quality Improvement.000) For Spots on Die is equal to 1. Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013.000 .

Besterfield 8 © 2013. 9e Dale H. The total probability of any situation will be equal to 1. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Definition of Probability The area of each distribution is equal to 1. is equal to 1. Quality Improvement. which is a probability distribution. Inc Upper Saddle River. The area under the normal distribution curve. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .500). Probabilities will occur when there is Sufficient trials and equal likelihood of the events occurring An event is a collection of outcomes (six- sided die has six possible outcomes). Besterfield 9 © 2013.Definition of Probability The probability is expressed as a decimal (up to 3 decimals) the probability of a head is 0. Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. 9e Dale H. Inc Upper Saddle River.

2008 by Pearson Higher Education. 9e Dale H. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield 10 © 2013.Definition of Probability When the number of outcomes is known or when the number of outcomes is found by experimentation: P(A) = NA/N where: P(A) = probability of event A ocurring to 3 decimal places NA = number of successful outcomes of event A N = total number of possible outcomes Quality Improvement. Inc Upper Saddle River.

Question A part is selected from a container of 50 parts that are known to have 10 nonconforming units. After 90 trials. 9e Dale H. 16 nonconforming units were recorded. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Example . Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . What is the probability based on known outcomes and on experimental outcomes? Quality Improvement. Inc Upper Saddle River. The part is returned to the container and a record of the number of trials and the number of nonconforming is maintained.

Example .Answer/s Known Outcomes: P(A) = NA/N = 10/50 = 0. 9e Dale H.200 Experimental Outcomes: P(A) = NA/N = 16/90 = 0. Besterfield © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Inc Upper Saddle River.178 Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

2008 by Pearson Higher Education. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. Quality Improvement. The probability calculated using known outcome is the TRUE PROBABILITY The probability calculated using expiremental outcome is different due to CHANCE FACTORS. 9e Dale H.

Theorems of Probability Theorem 1 Probability is expressed as a number between 1 and 0. Quality Improvement. Besterfield 14 © 2013. where a value of 1 is a certainty that an event will occur and a value of 0 is a certainty that an event will not occur. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 9e Dale H.

Inc Upper Saddle River.Theorems of Probability Theorem 2 If P(A) is the probability that event A will occur. 9e Dale H.P(A) Quality Improvement. Besterfield 15 © 2013. then the probability that A will not occur is: P(notA) = 1. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

what is the probability of finding an error-free or conforming return? P(notA) = 1 .40 = 0.960. Besterfield © 2013.960 Therefore the probability of finding a conforming income tax return is . Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Example If the probability of finding an error on an income tax return is 0.04. 9e Dale H.0. Inc Upper Saddle River.000 . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.P(A) = 1.

Theorems of Probability One Event Out or Two or More Events Mutually Not Mutually Exclusive Exclusive Theorem 3 Theorem 4 Two or More Event Out or Two or More Events Independent Dependent Theorem 6 Theorem 7 Figure 7-2 When to use Theorems 3. Besterfield 17 © 2013. Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.4.6 and 7 Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. OF NO. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Inspection Result by Supplier SUPPLIER NO. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. OF NONCONFORM CONFORMING ING TOTAL X 50 3 53 Y 125 6 131 Z 75 2 77 TOTAL 250 11 261 Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H.

9e Dale H. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield 19 © 2013.Theorems of Probability Theorem 3 If A and B are two mutually exclusive events (the occurrence of one event makes the other event impossible). Inc Upper Saddle River. then the probability that either event A or event B will occur is the sum of their respective probabilities: P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B) Quality Improvement.

2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013. 9e Dale H. Quality Improvement. the mathematical operation is ADDITION This is the “additive law of probability”. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. When an "or" is verbalized.

Example T3 -1 If the 261 parts described in Table 7-1 are contained in a box. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. what is the probability of selecting a random part produced by supplier X or by supplier z? P (X or Z) = P(X) + P(Z) = 53/261 + 77/261 = 0. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield © 2013. Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H.498 Quality Improvement.

9e Dale H. X or co. X) + P(co. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Example T3-2 What is the probability of selecting a noncorforming part from a supplier X or a conforming part from supplier Z? P(nc.299 Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Z) = 3/261 + 75/261 =0. Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. Z) = P(nc.

Besterfield © 2013. or a conforming part from supplier Y? P(Z or nc. Inc Upper Saddle River. Y) =P(Z)+P(nc.785 Quality Improvement. what is the probability that a randomly selected part will be from supplier Z. 9e Dale H. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Y) = 77/261+ 3/261 + 125/261 =0.Example T3-3 If the 261 parts described in Table 7-1 are contained in a box.X)+P(co. X or co. a nonconforming unit from supplier X.

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield 24 © 2013. Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. then the probability of either event A or event B or both is given by: P(A or B or both) = P(A) +P(B) – P(both) Events that are not mutually exclusive have some outcomes in common Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Theorems of Probability Theorem 4 If event A and event B are not mutually exclusive.

234 Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Example T4-1 If the 261 parts described in Table 7-1 are contained in a box. Besterfield © 2013. what is the probability that a randomly selected part will be from supplier X or a nonconforming unit? P(X or nc. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. or both) = P(X)+P(nc)-P(X and nc) = 53/261+11/261-3/261 =0. 9e Dale H.

2008 by Pearson Higher Education. there are 3 outcomes common to both events. 9e Dale H. Besterfield © 2013. therefore. The 3 nonconforming units of supplier X are counted twice as outcomes of P(X) and of P(nc). Quality Improvement. In the example problem. one set of three is subtracted out. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River.

Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Figure 7-3 Venn Diagram for T4 Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

000 Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield 28 © 2013. 9e Dale H.000 P(A) + P(B) + ….+ P(N) = 1. Inc Upper Saddle River. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Theorems of Probability Theorem 5 The sum of the probabilities of the events of a situation is equal to 1..

the probability of 1 nonconfroming unit in the sample of 3 is 0. Inc Upper Saddle River. What is the probability of finding 3 nonconforming units in the sample of 3? Quality Improvement. and the probability of finding nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is 0.Example of T5-1 A health inspector examines 3 products in a subgroup to determine if they are acceptable. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013.006. 9e Dale H. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .003.990. From the past experience it is known that the probability of finding no nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is 0.

Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. 1 nonconforming unit.001 Thus. 9e Dale H.001 Quality Improvement. of Example T5-1 There are four events to the situation: 0 nonconforming units. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Cont. 2 nonconforming units. and 3 nonconforming units P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1.990+0.006+0.000 P(3) = 0.003+P(3) = 1. the probability of 3 nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is 0.000 .

Besterfield 31 © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. then the probability of both A and B occurring is the product of their respective probabilities: P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B) Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River.Theorems of Probability Theorem 6 If A and B are independent events (one where its occurrence has no influence on the probability of the other event or events). 9e Dale H.

2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Theorem 6 is referred to as the multiplicative law of probabilities Whenever an "and" is verbalized. Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . the mathematical operation is multiplication Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H.

Example T6-1 If 261 parts described in Table 7-1 are contained in a box. Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield © 2013. 9e Dale H. what is the probability that 2 randomly selected parts will be from supplier X and supplier Y? Assume that the first part is returned to the box before the second part is selected (CALLED WITH REPLACEMENT) Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

2008 by Pearson Higher Education. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 9e Dale H.Answer T6-1 P ( X and Y) = P(X) x P(Y) = (53/261) (131/261) = 0.Example . Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013.102 Quality Improvement.

provided that event A has ocurred. Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Theorems of Probability Theorem 7 If A and B are dependent events. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield 35 © 2013. 9e Dale H. Inc Upper Saddle River. then B will occur also: P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B\A) P(B\A) is defined as the probability of event B. the probability of both A and B occurring is the probability of A and the probability that if A occurred.

since the probability of the second event depends on the result of the first event. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. This theorem is referred to as the conditional theorem. Quality Improvement. It is applicable to more than two events. A dependent event is one whose occurence influences the probability of the other event or events. Besterfield © 2013. Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H.

Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. What is the probability? P(X and Y) = P(X) x P(Y/X) = (53/261) (131/260) Since the first part was not returned to the box.Example T7-1 Assume that in the preceding example problem the first part was not returned to the box before the second part was selected. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013. there was a total of only 260 parts in the box Quality Improvement.

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Cont. Example T7-2 What is the probability of choosing both parts from supplier Z? P (Z and Z) = P(Z) x (P(Z/Z) = (77/261) (76/260) = 0. Besterfield © 2013.086 Since the first part was from supplier Z. Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. there are ony 76 from supplier Z of the new total of 260 in the box Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

Inc Upper Saddle River. What is the probability of a blue or a purple chip? What is the probability of a pink or a blue chip? Quality Improvement.35. and the probability of a purple chip is 0.04.SEATWORK 1. What is the probability that you will live forever? What is the probability that an octopus will fly? 3. The probability of drawing a pink chip from a bowl of different-colored chips is 0. 9e Dale H. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .46.15. the probability of a blue chip is 0. If an event is certain to occur. what is its probability? 2. the probability of a green chip is 0. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013. what is its probability? If an event will not occur.

4. 100 double beds. If a hotel has 20 king-size beds. 50 queensize beds. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. What is the probability that there will be tranquility for the staff? 5. Besterfield © 2013. 9e Dale H. what is the probability that you will be given a queen size or a twin bed when you register? Quality Improvement. and 30 twin beds available. At an any hour in a hospital intensive care unit the probability of an emergency is0.247. Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

000. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. a.81 Quality Improvement. P(B or Pr) = P(B) + P(Pr) = 0. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .46 + 0.04 = 0. 0. 0.46 = 0.50 b. P(Pk or B) = P(Pk) + P(B) = 0. 9e Dale H.000 2.35 + 0.000 3. Besterfield © 2013. Inc Upper Saddle River.000.ANSWER 1. 1. 0.

0. Besterfield © 2013. P(Queen or Twin) = P(Queen) + P(Twin) = 50/200 +30/200 -80/200 = 0. 9e Dale H.753 5.P(an emergency) = 1 . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.40 Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. P(No Emergency) = 1 .4.247 = 0.

Counting of Events Three techniques used in computing probabilities 1. Combinations Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. 9e Dale H. Simple multiplication 2. Permutations 3. Besterfield © 2013. Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. another event B can happened in b ways or outcomes.Simple multiplication If an event A can happen in any of a ways or outcomes and.1. the number of ways that both events can happen is ab. Quality Improvement. Simple Multiplication 1. after it has occurred. Besterfield 44 © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

9e Dale H. Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Example A witness to a hit-and-run accident remembered the first 3 digits of the license plate out of 5 and noted the fact that the last 2 were numerals. How many owners of automobiles would the police have to investigate? Quality Improvement. Inc Upper Saddle River. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

9e Dale H. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River.Answer For the numbers ab = (10)(10) = 100 For the letters ab = (26)(26) = 676 Quality Improvement.

CPU. This referred to as permutation of n objects taking r at a time where n = 3 and r = 3 Quality Improvement. UPC. Besterfield © 2013. The permutation of the word CUP are CUP. Permutations A permutation is an ordered arrangement of a set of objects. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. PUC and PCU In this example there are 3 objects and we arranged them in 3 groups to obtain 6 permutations. 9e Dale H.2. Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

and kr. Besterfield © 2013. rk. How many permutations would there be for the 4 objects taken 2 at a time? Using the word FORK 12 permutations as follows: fo. ko. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. rf. Quality Improvement. ok. of. Inc Upper Saddle River. or. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 9e Dale H. fr. ro.

Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Fomula of Permutations Quality Improvement. Besterfield © 2013. 9e Dale H.

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013.n! P ( n r )! n r Where: Pnr = Number of permutations of n objects taken r of them at a time (the symbol is sometimes written as nPr n = total number of objects r = number of objects selected out of the total number Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H. Inc Upper Saddle River.

6! = (6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 720 Quality Improvement..(1) Thus.. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. 9e Dale H... Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. The expression n! is read as "n factorial" and means n(n-1) (n-2). New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

Example 1 How many permutations are there for 5 objects taken 3 at a time? n Pr = n!/(n-r)! = 5!/(5-3)! = (5)(4)(3)(2)(1) / (2)(1) = 60 Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 9e Dale H. Inc Upper Saddle River.

then we have a combination: n! C r !( n r )! n r Example: The word “cup” has 6 permutations when the 3 objects are taken 3 at a time. Combinations 3. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. Quality Improvement.3.Combinations If the way the objects are ordered is unimportant. since the same three letters are in different order. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. There is only one combination. Besterfield 53 © 2013.

2008 by Pearson Higher Education. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . but there are only 6 combinations. Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H. The word FORK has 12 permutations when the 4 letters are taken 2 at a time. Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013.

Besterfield 55 © 2013. 2. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. nonconforming combinations. The formula is constructed of 3 combinations (total combinations. Occurs when the population is finite and the random sample is taken without replacement. 9e Dale H.Discrete Probability Distributions Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 1. and conforming combinations): D d N D n d N n C C P(d ) C Quality Improvement. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River.

Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River.Where P(d) = Probability of d nonconforming units in a sample of size n CNn = Combinations of all units CDd = Combinations of non conforming units CN-D n-d = Combinations of conforming units N = Number of units in the lot (Population) n = Number of units in the sample D = Number of conconforming units in the lot d = Number of conconforming units in the samle N-D = Number of conforming units in the lot n-d = Number of conforming units in the sample Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

The formula is obtained from the application of the probability definition. simple multiplications and combinations. The numerator is the ways or outcomes of obtaining nonconforming units times the ways or outcomes of obtaining conforming units The denominator is the total possible ways or outcomes. Inc Upper Saddle River. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013. 9e Dale H. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Quality Improvement.

2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Example Pg 285 Quality Improvement. Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 9e Dale H.

Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Figure 7-4 Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H.

9e Dale H. Quality Improvement. It is applicable to discrete probability problems that have an infinite number of items or that have a steady stream of items coming from a work center. head or tails. Besterfield 60 © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . 2.Discrete Probability Distributions Binomial Probability Distribution 1. success or failure. Inc Upper Saddle River. pass or fail. It is applied to problems that have attributes such as conforming or nonconforming. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.

15 n! P(d ) p0d q0n d d !(n d )! Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Inc Upper Saddle River.Discrete Probability Distributions Binomial Probability Distribution cont’d In quality work p is the portion or fraction nonconforming and is usually less than 0. 9e Dale H. Besterfield 61 © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

there is no lot size. Besterfield © 2013.Where P(d) = Probability of d nonconforming units n = number in the sample d = number of nonconforming in the sample p0 = proportion (fraction) nonconforming in the population q0 = proportion (fraction) conforming (1-po) in the population Note: Since the binomial is for the infinite situation. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. N in the formula. 9e Dale H. Inc Upper Saddle River.

Example A random sample of 5 hinges is selected from a steady stream of product from a punch press.10. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield © 2013. and the proportion nonconforming is 0. What is the probability of 1 nonconforming unit in the sample? What is the probability of 1 or less? What is the probability of 2 or more? Quality Improvement. Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H.

1 nonconforming q0 = 1 .00 . New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013.905-1) 1! (5-1)! = 0.10 = . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.101)(0.0. 9e Dale H.p0 = 1.328 Quality Improvement.90 P(d ) P(1) = n! p0d q0n d d !( n d )! 5! (0.

1 or Less nonconforming

To solve, we need to use the addition

**theorem and add P(1) and P(0)
**

n!

P(d )

p0d q0n d

d !( n d )!

P(0) =

5!

(0.100)(0.905-0)

0! (5-0)!

= .590

Quality Improvement, 9e

Dale H. Besterfield

**© 2013, 2008 by Pearson Higher Education, Inc
**

Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved

Thus

P (1 or less) = P(0) + P(1)

= 0.590 + 0.328

= .918

Quality Improvement, 9e

Dale H. Besterfield

**© 2013, 2008 by Pearson Higher Education, Inc
**

Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved

2 or more nonconforming

Solutions can be accomplished using the

**addition theorem and adding the probabilities
**

of 2, 3, 4 and 5 nonconforming units.

P(2 or more) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5)

Or it can be accomplished by using the theorem

**that the sum of the probabilities is 1
**

P(2 or more) = P(T) - P(1 or less)

= 1.000 - 0.918

= 0.082

Quality Improvement, 9e

Dale H. Besterfield

**© 2013, 2008 by Pearson Higher Education, Inc
**

Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved

the count of machine breakdowns in 1 day. Quality Improvement. For example. the count of cars arriving at a highway toll booth in 1-min intervals. Besterfield 68 © 2013. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. and the count of shoppers entering a grocery store in 5min intervals. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. 9e Dale H.Discrete Probability Distributions Poisson Probability Distribution Named after Simeon Poisson in 1837 It is applicable to many situations that involve observations per unit of time.

Inc Upper Saddle River.. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . For example: the count of weaving nonconformities in 1000 m2 of cloth.. 9e Dale H. the count of nonconformities per lot of product. there are many equal opportunities for the occurrence of an event. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. In each of the preceding situations. Besterfield © 2013. It is also applicable to situations involving observations per unit amount. Quality Improvement.

Inc Upper Saddle River. 9e Dale H. When Poisson is used as an approximation to the binomial. the symbol c has the same meaning as d has in the binomial and hypergeometric formulas. Besterfield 70 © 2013. c (np0 ) np0 P(c) e c! Quality Improvement. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .Discrete Probability Distributions The Poisson is applicable when n is quite large and Po is small.

Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. cars. or machine breakdowns npo = average count. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . customers. 9e Dale H. or average number. such as count of nonconformities. of events of a given classification occuring in a sample e = 2. or numbers. of events of a given classification occuring is a sample.Where c = count. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.718281 Quality Improvement.

operations research. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. and work sampling. such as accident frequencies. 9e Dale H. Quality Improvement. computer simulation. It is used in other industrial situations. Besterfield 72 © 2013.Discrete Probability Distributions The Poisson probability is the basis for attribute control charts and for acceptance sampling. Inc Upper Saddle River. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

and Poisson distributions can exist. binomial. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Similarity among the hypergeometric. 9e Dale H. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Inc Upper Saddle River.Discrete Probability Distributions The Poisson can be easily calculated using Table C. Besterfield 73 © 2013. Quality Improvement.

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Besterfield 74 © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Inc Upper Saddle River. then the calculations are c (np0 ) np0 P(c) e c! Quality Improvement.Probability Distribution Using the formula. supposed that the average count of cars that arrive at a highway toll booth in a 1-min interval is 2. 9e Dale H.

003 Quality Improvement.271 P(2) = (2)2/2! (e-2) = 0. 9e Dale H.135 P(1) = (2)1/1! (e-2) = 0. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.180 P(4) = (2)4/4! (e-2) = 0. P(0) = (2)0/0! (e-2) = 0.012 P(7) = (2)7/7! (e-2) = 0.090 P(5) = (2)5/5! (e-2) = 0. Besterfield © 2013.271 P(3) = (2)3/3! (e-2) = 0.036 P(6) = (2)6/6! (e-2) = 0.

736 = 0.000 . 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. Besterfield © 2013.000 .0. What is the probability of 2 billing errors? The probability of 1 or less? The probability of 2 or more? From Table C for an np0 value of 1.264 Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H.0. Inc Upper Saddle River.184 P(1 or less) = 0.736 P(2 or more) = 1.0: P(2) = 0.P(1 or less) = 1.Example The average count of billing errors at a local bank per 8-h shifts is 1. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved .

Inc Upper Saddle River. Besterfield © 2013. Normal curve is a continuous probability distribution. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Continuous Probability Distributions When measurable data such as meters. 9e Dale H. Solutions to probability problems that involve continuous data can be solved using the normal probability distribution (Chapter 4) The same techniques are applicable in probability Quality Improvement. and ohms are used. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . the probability distribution is is continuous. kilograms.

New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . Inc Upper Saddle River. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education.Example Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H. Besterfield © 2013.

Computer Program Microsoft EXCEL will solve for permutations. Inc Upper Saddle River. and Poisson Quality Improvement. 9e Dale H. New Jersey 07458 • All Rights Reserved . binomial. combinations. Besterfield 79 © 2013. 2008 by Pearson Higher Education. hypergeometric.

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