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ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CRISES & REMEDIAL MEASURES PROPOSED IN PAKISTAN

By

Prof. Dr. Engr. S.M. Bhutta Faculty of Engineering and Technology International Islamic university, Islamabad PAKISTAN

33%

daily

serious.

It

affects

load shedding is most

all

activities.

Industries

suffer, daily life is detoriated!

If appropriate actions

are not taken

immediately; the situation will get worse, people fight for every watt of electricity!

The impounding crises gravity is not realized by the decision makers!

Politics

and

several

lobbies

work

against construction of major projects

Industrial Loss By Power Outages

Cost of the Industrial Section

>

US $4 Billion

Loss of Industrial Value Added

>

11 percent

Total Loss of Load Shedding to the Economy

>

US $ 7 Billion

Cost as % of GDP.

>

2.5 percent

Loss of Exports

>

US $ 1.3 Billion

Installed Capacity of Pakistan of power

WAPDA Thermal Hydel

 

- 6,500 MW

6,441 MW

-

Nuclear

-

462 MW

-

IPPS

(Thermal)

6,154 MW

Total

-

19,557 MW

Utilization of various sources of Energy

 

Gas

-

33%

Oil

-

34%

Coal

 

-

1%

 

Nuclear

-

2%

Hydel

-

33%

Reasons of Load Shedding

Circular Debt due to Non-Payments of bills of oil and electricity Only 11% of total hydel potential realized Shortfall in gas supply, though local resources are available Fuel Oil import supply issues and financial constrains Subsidies especially cross subsidy to domestic sector Poor governance, nepotism and corruption Technical losses & pilferage System and plants are old, availability low, need repair and rehabilitation. System faults & over loading.

Hydro

Pakistan Energy Resources

Hydro-Electric Potential:- 59,000MW

Installed Hydel Capacity:- 6,500 MW

Solar

Solar Potential:- MW

Installed:- Experimental

Wind

Wind Potential:-

2.9 Million

346000

Gas

Geographical potential :

Trillion cubic feet

150

Proven:

Production Yearly:

Consumption Yearly:

29 TCF

1.27 TCF

1.05 TCF

Import plans: Iran 1045 TCF, Qatar 980 TCF,

Central Asian etc

Oil

Oil • Geographical Potential : Billion Barrels 27.5 • Proven : Billion Barrels • R/P Ratio

Geographical Potential:

Billion Barrels

27.5

Proven:

Billion Barrels

R/P Ratio:

import 84%.

Production Yearly:

Million Barrels

0.314

13 years, Oil

23

Coal

Geographical Potential:

Billion Tons

Proven:

Billion Tons

185

0.314

Production Yearly:

3.74

Million Tons

Consumption Yearly:

8.4

Million Tons

Only 1.46 % of Coal Potential is

Barriers in the Development of Energy

1. Technology and Information Barriers.

  • 2. Regulatory Barriers.

3. Tariff.

  • 4. Policy Barriers.

5. Institutional Barriers. 6. Financial Barriers. 7. Interconnection Barriers

  • 8. Procedural Impediments.

9.

Anti Lobbies

10.

Risks

a. Hydrological Risks

b. Geological Risks.

c. Environment Risks.

d. Miscellaneous.

Technology and Information Barriers.

lack of knowledge

about the technologies of

Energy. Need for education of Energy Technology, not only for the

public

students & engineers but also for general

Strategy to achieve five E’s

E----- Education E----- Energy E----- Employment E----- Equity E----- Enterprise

International Islamic University, Islamabad has taken a lead in starting the classes for post graduate students about Energy Engineering to implement the most important “Es” of education in energy & for employment on equity basis for enterprises.

Remedial Measures

i). Increase the priority for funding of Energy projects.

ii). Encourage private sector investment and involvement

in

the

programmes

for

training

and

implementation.

Promote the establishment of joint-venture manufacturing, consultancy for local production of energy

systems.

iii). Establish or designate a single but active organization to give international focus and leadership of professionals to the increased use of energy.

iv).

Establish in universities and provinces centers of

excellence for energy, to provide training, technology support, and resources databases appropriate to the local needs.

v).

Increase R&D and industrial linkage funds for

energy.

vi).

Review and update economic decision-making

methodology to include the external impacts of the options.

VII).

Need

for

amendments

in

NEPRA

Act,

Rules,

Regulations based upon the following issues to promote

energy:-

Net Profit according to Article 161 of Constitution of Pakistan for hydro power projects needs to be worked out properly because AGN Qazi formula is defective.

Need to have legal coverage for all the energy policies

Need to facilitate the micro/mini renewable electrical generating units (solar, hydel, wind, bio- diesel) to get generation license without any fees and paper work.

Renewable energy to be awarded reasonable up- front tariff.

NEPRA should have competent professionals and future vision of renewable energy to guide the nation.

Sincere actions required to address the reasons of load shedding.

National jeopardized 28% loss

food

needs

would

be

of

storage

capacity

reservoirs due to sedimentation Implementation of Water Apportionment Accord, New storages are essential. In its absence would give rise in bitter inter-

provincial disputes, The Annual energy generated would

be equivalent to 20 million barrels of

oil

otherwise

needed

thermal power.

to produce

LESSONS LEARNT

Construction of Most Controversial Dams and Hydel Projects of India & China

India Ultimately Completed Construction of Controversial

Multi-Purpose 1450 MW Sardar Sarovar Dam, in 2007, after two decades of controversy.

The most controversial

and

the largest 22,500

MW,

Three Gorges Dam of China got completed in year 2009 after 77 years of controversy.!

This

Dam was originally envisioned in 1932,

became

most controversial, was Revised in 1980.

Three Gorge Dam

as approved by the China National

People’s in 1992: when out of total 2,633 voters,

1,767 voted in favour.

Strategy Proposed to Develop Consensus About Hydel Power Dams in Pakistan

  • 1. Inter Provincial Agreements for New Water Storages

  • 2. National Comprehensive Law for Water as Accord

  • 3. Need of Reliable Telemetry System to win confidence of all

  • 4. National Provincial Assemblies, Senate to Play Leading Role

  • 5. Council of Common Interest (CCI) to play due role

  • 6. Net Profit of Hydel Plants to be reviewed as per Constitution

  • 7. Wastage of 21 MAF of Water to Sea to be fully utilized

  • 8. Feasibilities reports need priorities

  • 9. Self Reliance to be achieved

10. Departments & Organizations to be Made Active

11. R&D Institution & Study Groups to be Established

12. Metrology Office and forecasts need to be more reliable 13. Every Drop of Water Must be Used Fruitfully

Hydro Electrical Power Promotion Institute (HEPPI)

Technology focus on machinery, mechanical & electrical equipment and civil works. Working Groups will undertake surveys
Technology
focus on machinery,
mechanical & electrical
equipment and civil
works. Working Groups
will undertake surveys
and reports on issues.
Hydrology & geology
data to be made
available of different
sites.

Research

Hydro Power Plants, R&D,

Hydro Power Plants, R&D,

Education

Education

Development, Development, Design, Design,

Manufacturing, Manufacturing, Installation, Installation,

O&M, O&M, Economic, Economic, latest latest

Public

Technologies Technologies Information Information

Relations

Through media contacts, publications and representation at conferences, enhancement of communications and understanding between all stakeholders involved in development, including decision- makers, politicians, public and to provide

Education

Educational & training material in English & local languages to be produced for study at all levels, including booklets and videos for distance learning, and support to be given to courses and seminars

R&D to be promoted, innovation inventories and bibliographies will be prepared of research projects supports; scientific information will be given to public.

CDM & Environment

Pollution and climate change; environment assessment; social aspects; surface water quality; groundwater management; fish and fisheries; sedimentation; operational aspects,

risk managements and
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Displacement of peoples.

Finance and Economics

project financing, interaction with lending agencies and risk analysis & mitigation methodologies to attribute tangible benefits; conceptual planning for project financing; generation pricing, tariff etc.