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Chapter 4: Probability

(Cont.)
In this handout:
•Venn diagrams
• Event relations
• Laws of probability
• Conditional probability
• Independence of events

Venn Diagram: representing events graphically Example: Toss a coin twice. Let event A corresponds to “ tail at the second toss ”. event B corresponds to “ at least one head ”. .

4} e5 {1. 3} e2 {2. Label the possible pairs (elementary outcomes): {1. 3} e4 {1. 4} e6 Let A: selected monkeys are of the same type. B: selected monkeys are of the same age. . 4} e3 {3.Example: Two monkeys to be selected by lottery for an experiment. 2} e1 {2.

or both. . The intersection of events A and B is the set of all elementary outcomes that are in A and B. B.The complement of an event A is the set of all elementary outcomes that are not in A. The union of events A and B is the set of all elementary outcomes that are in A.

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Example: Equal chances that the answer to a problem is correct or wrong. What is the probability of getting at least one correct answer? P(at least one correct answer) = 1 – P(all answers wrong) = 1 – 1/8 = 7/8 .

What is the probability that the person also has hypertension? Let A denote “has hypertension”. Conditional probability The probability of an event A must often be modified after information is obtained as to whether or not a related event B has taken place.25 = .1/.4 . Then P(has hypertension given that overweight) = P( A | B ) = . B denote “overweight”. Example: Q1: Probability that a randomly-selected person has hypertension? Q2: A randomly-selected person is overweight.

Conditional probability Box on Page 143 Conditioned probability. multiplication law of probability .

Independence of Events .

S denote “system functions”.98 and component 2 has reliability . If the system can function only if both components function.98 * .931 . Thus. Independence of Events Example: A mechanical system consists of two components. Given that the components operate independently. A2 denote “component 2 functions”. what is the reliability of the system? Let A1 denote “component 1 functions”. P(S) = P(A1) P(A2) = . Component 1 has reliability (probability of not failing) . we take the events A1 and A2 to be independent.95.95 = .