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Global Climate Change

• Earth is Warming
• How do we know?
• What do we know?
• How confident are hypotheses about causes?
• What are greenhouse gases?
• Where do they come from, and how do we
know?
• Most common claims of the skeptics
• T’s are going down, not up
• This warming is just part of a natural cycle
• CO2 is good for plants

Global Climate Change

• Earth is Warming
• How do we know?
• What do we know?
• How confident are hypotheses about causes?
• What are greenhouse gases?
• Where do they come from, and how do we
know?
• Most common claims of the skeptics
• T’s are going down, not up
• This warming is just part of a natural cycle
• CO2 is good for plants

noaa.ncdc.gov/oa/climate/ghcn- daily/ . NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network: DATA Stations with at least 10 years of record for these 30- yr intervals http://www.

The Historical T Data Network From: Kitchen (2014) – Global Climate Change .

Variations from station to station can be erratic due to small variations in local conditions 2.Anomalies instead of Absolute T Data 1. . 3. Regional anomalies are much more consistent. than station to station readings. over a larger area. Anomalies allow more accurate assessment of T variation through time.

Nights From: Kitchen (2014) – Global Climate Change . Days vs.

Days vs. Nights From: Kitchen (2014) – Global Climate Change .

Data IPCC - 2007 . IPCC .

2007 . IPCC – Last 2000 yrs IPCC.

Land + Ocean T’s National Research Council (2010) – weather stations + SST’s from direct and satellite measurements. .

The glacier has both kilometers (7. the It drains more than six percent of the ice surrounding Antarctica reached its Greenland ice cap and contributes annual winter maximum—and set a more to global sea level rise than any record for a new high.php?id=76590 kilometers (7.39 million iew.na was set in 2006. Jakobshavnretreated 1. shedding ice into the Arctic  for the least amount of sea ice Ocean as it surged from land to sea. coverage in the satellite record. In 2010. Melting Ice Greenland Antarctica Jakobshavn is the fastest-flowing Two weeks after a  glacier in the world. according to the National In 2010. sa.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.49 million square miles) http://earthobservatory.gov/v kilometers. Sea ice other feature in the Northern extended over 19.php?id=79 .51 million square miles) retreated and thinned in recent years. in 2012. http://visibleearth. The previous record of 19.5 Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). the new record was set in the Arctic Ocea glacier moved at 15 kilometers per n year.44 million square Hemisphere.

From: Kitchen (2014) – Global Climate Change .

gov/Features/WorldOfC hange/sea_ice. Arctic Sea Ice http://earthobservatory. since 2004. “The nine lowest maximum extents have occurred in the last nine years. and the 2011 minimum nearly tied the 2007 record low.php National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Over the last decade. Arctic sea ice extents in September have set record lows three times.” Meier says.nasa. .

Warming + Melting = Sea Level Rise From: Kitchen (2014) – Global Climate Change .

and how do we know? • Most common claims of the skeptics • T’s are going down. not up • This warming is just part of a natural cycle • CO2 is good for plants . Global Climate Change • Earth is Warming • How do we know? • What do we know? • How confident are hypotheses about causes? • What are greenhouse gases? • Where do they come from.

1 1 10 1 10 100 Wavelengths (not to scale) Nanometers Micrometers Centimeters Meters Electromagnetic Spectrum: light = energy = waves .01 0.1 1 10 0. Causes of Warming – How confident? Visible light Shorter Gamma UV Infrared Longer X rays Microwaves TV. Radio waves wavelengths rays radiation radiation wavelengths and higher and lower energy energy 0.001 0.1 10 100 0.

Flow of Energy to and from the Earth Solar radiation Refected by Radiated atmosphere by UV radiation atmospher e Lower Stratosphere as heat Most UV (ozone layer) absorbed Heat Visible by ozone Tropospher Heat added radiated by light e to the earth tropospher Greenhouse Absorbed e effect by the earth From: Miller (2010) Living in the Environment .

• Some of these are: • Water vapor • Carbon dioxide • Methane • CFCs • Ozone . What’s a Greenhouse Gas? • Greenhouse gases respond to long-wave radiation (infrared radiation) by ‘vibrating’ – this vibration sends out (or re-radiates) a portion of that original infrared radiation – heat.

Yellow = observed by satellites Valleys = absorption by GHG’s CO2 could raise overall heat budget of atmos. by .

Atmospheric concentration units indicate the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million molecules of air for carbon dioxide and nitrous . National Research Council . along with carbon dioxide. atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were relatively constant until they started to rise in the Industrial era.GHG Analysis of air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice cores show that.

via radioactive decay [half-life of 5730 yrs] • Tree rings record relative amounts of 14C in the atmosphere. and show a large increase in the proportion of 12C since the industrial revolution • This comes from fossil fuels. it begins to lose 14C.How Do We Know We’re Adding CO2 to the Atmosphere? 14 C! • Living things incorporate 14C into their bodies in the same proportion as it occurs in the atmosphere • When the organism dies. which are too old to have any 14C remaining .

3-19. fuels decomposers Carbon in Compaction limestone or dolomite sediments Process Reservoir Pathway affected by humans Natural pathway Fig. 70 . p. Carbon dioxide in Respiration Carbon atmosphere Photosynthesis Cycle Animals (consumers) Burning fossil Diffusion Forest fires fuels Plants Deforestation (producers ) Transportation Respiration Carbon in plants (producers Carbon in ) Carbon dioxide dissolved in animals (consumers ocean ) Decomposition Carbon in Marine food webs fossil Producers. consumers.

html . Trends in CO2 : NOAA http://www.noaa.esrl.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/histo ry.

Temperature and CO2 Temperature change (blue) and carbon dioxide change (red) observed in ice core records Many other records are .

indicates that the tropical ocean may warm 5°C for a doubling of carbon dioxide. Temperature and CO2 An estimate from the tropical ocean. and the 5°C value is consistent with many of the current coupled climate models. far from the influence of ice sheets. The paleo data provide a valuable independent check on the sensitivity of climate models.  .

Temperature Projections .NOAA http://www.gov/#education/teachingRes ources .climate.

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Global Climate Change • Earth is Warming • How do we know? • What do we know? • How confident are hypotheses about causes? • What are greenhouse gases? • Where do they come from. not up • This warming is just part of a natural cycle • CO2 is good for plants . and how do we know? • Most common claims of the skeptics • T’s are going down.