Statistical tests for

replicated experiments
 Normal probability plots are a less
formal diagnostic tool for detecting
effects
 F-tests and t-tests provide a
statistical test of factor effects

Statistical tests for
replicated experiments
 Statistical tests are possible for
unreplicated designs (unreplicated
pilot studies are essential tools in
sample size calculations)
 We will first focus on statistical tests
for replicated designs

Recumbent bike) . Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example  Response--Pulse rate of subject  Factors – Treatment (Energy Drink. Difficult) – Machine (Stair climber. Placebo) – Setting (Moderate.

75 0.25 8.25 5. 110. 117. 118. 123.33 1 -1 1 121.917 . Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- T S Example M Responses Mean Variance -1 -1 -1 109. 124 125. 123. 125. 126. 122.25 1 -1 -1 120. 111 110. 112.58 -1 1 1 113. 116. 113. 123. 119 117. 118 121 36 1 1 -1 125.21 1 1 1 127.67 -1 -1 1 108. 112 112. 125. 123.5 4. 118 121. 118. 120 122 6 -1 1 -1 130.5 9. 130.75 14. 125 125.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example Normal Probability Plot of the Standardized Effects (response is Pulse. Alpha = .05) 99 Effect Type Not Significant 95 Significant 90 A Factor Name A A 80 B B B C C 70 Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Standardized Effect .

start with an estimate of experimental error . Statistical tests for replicated experiments  Effect sizes depend on the measurement scale  Statistical tests are based on standardized effects  To compute standardized effects.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments  Experimental error can be summarized by the square root of the variance of the background noise (the standard deviation)  The experimental error measures variation in a single observation .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments  Thevariance is best estimated by the Mean Square for Pure Error (MSPE) (Sum of cell variances ) MSPE  8 .

62 8 MSPE  3.25  6    14.21  .26  Thestandard deviation for each run is ~3 beats per minute .92 MSPE   10. Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example 8.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments  While the standard deviation for a single response is the square root of MSPE. the standard deviation of an effect (its standard error) is: MSPE k 2 2 n .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments  We divide an effect in a k-factor experiment with n replications (e. A) by its standard error to compute a t-test statistic : Effect T MSPE k 2 2 n ..g.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments  Test statistics for other effects are computed similarly  U-do-it: Calculate the T-statistics of all effects for the Exercise data .

T has a t-distribution  The shape of the t-distribution curve depends on the number of replicates (“degrees of freedom”=2k(n-1))  The t-distribution curves have slightly more spread than the bell- shaped (“normal”) curve . Statistical tests for replicated experiments  When an effect is negligible.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments--t curve for 3-factor design 0.2 0.3 0.1 2 replications 4 replications 0.4 4 reps 2 reps 0.0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 .

an effect is significant  These percentiles are commonly found in textbooks (but please use a computer package instead) .Statistics tests for replicated experiments  If|T| is larger than the 99.5th or 97.5th percentile of the t distribution.

with 3 reps (24 df) 0. Statistical tests for replicated experiments--t critical value for 3-factor design (n=4) 0.4 t dist.3 0.0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 .025 0.064 0.1 2.2 .

122=.244 . twice the area to the right of |T| is reported as a p-value. Small p-values suggest that a standardized effect is distinguishable from background noise  You definitely need a computer to compute p-values--in the following example. the p-value for the M effect is 2*. Statistical tests for replicated experiments  Sometimes.

Statistical test for replicated experiments--Example .

Which effects are significant? Are these the same effects that the probability plot detected? . Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example  U-do-it: Compute p-values for the remaining effects.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments F tests for individual effects are equivalent to t-tests  F tests allow several comparisons to be tested simultaneously  The t-test can be used to help in computing the number of replications needed in a factorial experiment .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments  Hypothesistesting can be extended to combine estimates of error from both pure error and negligible effects – Negligible effects can be selected a priori or from effects plots – Degrees of freedom for t-tests and F- tests should be adjusted accordingly .

38 11.00 10.38 10. Statistical tests for replicated experiments  Error estimated from negiglible terms (Lack of Fit) is similar to MSPE Source DF SS MS Residual Error 28 300.34 Pure Error 24 255.63 .73 Lack of Fit 4 45.