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replicated experiments

Normal probability plots are a less

formal diagnostic tool for detecting

effects

F-tests and t-tests provide a

statistical test of factor effects

**Statistical tests for
**

replicated experiments

Statistical tests are possible for

unreplicated designs (unreplicated

pilot studies are essential tools in

sample size calculations)

We will first focus on statistical tests

for replicated designs

Recumbent bike) . Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example Response--Pulse rate of subject Factors – Treatment (Energy Drink. Difficult) – Machine (Stair climber. Placebo) – Setting (Moderate.

75 0.25 8.25 5. 110. 117. 118. 123.33 1 -1 1 121.917 . Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- T S Example M Responses Mean Variance -1 -1 -1 109. 124 125. 123. 125. 126. 122.25 1 -1 -1 120. 111 110. 112.58 -1 1 1 113. 116. 113. 123. 119 117. 118 121 36 1 1 -1 125.21 1 1 1 127.67 -1 -1 1 108. 112 112. 125. 123.5 4. 118 121. 118. 120 122 6 -1 1 -1 130.5 9. 130.75 14. 125 125.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example Normal Probability Plot of the Standardized Effects (response is Pulse. Alpha = .05) 99 Effect Type Not Significant 95 Significant 90 A Factor Name A A 80 B B B C C 70 Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Standardized Effect .

start with an estimate of experimental error . Statistical tests for replicated experiments Effect sizes depend on the measurement scale Statistical tests are based on standardized effects To compute standardized effects.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments Experimental error can be summarized by the square root of the variance of the background noise (the standard deviation) The experimental error measures variation in a single observation .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments Thevariance is best estimated by the Mean Square for Pure Error (MSPE) (Sum of cell variances ) MSPE 8 .

62 8 MSPE 3.25 6 14.21 .26 Thestandard deviation for each run is ~3 beats per minute .92 MSPE 10. Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example 8.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments While the standard deviation for a single response is the square root of MSPE. the standard deviation of an effect (its standard error) is: MSPE k 2 2 n .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments We divide an effect in a k-factor experiment with n replications (e. A) by its standard error to compute a t-test statistic : Effect T MSPE k 2 2 n ..g.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments Test statistics for other effects are computed similarly U-do-it: Calculate the T-statistics of all effects for the Exercise data .

T has a t-distribution The shape of the t-distribution curve depends on the number of replicates (“degrees of freedom”=2k(n-1)) The t-distribution curves have slightly more spread than the bell- shaped (“normal”) curve . Statistical tests for replicated experiments When an effect is negligible.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments--t curve for 3-factor design 0.2 0.3 0.1 2 replications 4 replications 0.4 4 reps 2 reps 0.0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 .

an effect is significant These percentiles are commonly found in textbooks (but please use a computer package instead) .Statistics tests for replicated experiments If|T| is larger than the 99.5th or 97.5th percentile of the t distribution.

with 3 reps (24 df) 0. Statistical tests for replicated experiments--t critical value for 3-factor design (n=4) 0.4 t dist.3 0.0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 .025 0.064 0.1 2.2 .

122=.244 . twice the area to the right of |T| is reported as a p-value. Small p-values suggest that a standardized effect is distinguishable from background noise You definitely need a computer to compute p-values--in the following example. the p-value for the M effect is 2*. Statistical tests for replicated experiments Sometimes.

Statistical test for replicated experiments--Example .

Which effects are significant? Are these the same effects that the probability plot detected? . Statistical tests for replicated experiments-- Example U-do-it: Compute p-values for the remaining effects.

Statistical tests for replicated experiments F tests for individual effects are equivalent to t-tests F tests allow several comparisons to be tested simultaneously The t-test can be used to help in computing the number of replications needed in a factorial experiment .

Statistical tests for replicated experiments Hypothesistesting can be extended to combine estimates of error from both pure error and negligible effects – Negligible effects can be selected a priori or from effects plots – Degrees of freedom for t-tests and F- tests should be adjusted accordingly .

38 11.00 10.38 10. Statistical tests for replicated experiments Error estimated from negiglible terms (Lack of Fit) is similar to MSPE Source DF SS MS Residual Error 28 300.34 Pure Error 24 255.63 .73 Lack of Fit 4 45.

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