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AGENDA

MGT 606

1. Motivation

PERT/CPM

2a. Digraphs (Project Diagrams)

2b. PERT

3a. CPM--Starts, Finishes, Slacks,

3b. Resource Allocation

4. CPM with Crashing

5. PERT Simulation

2

**1. Motivation for PERT/CPM Use
**

• Definition of a Project

**• Organizational Trajectories and Change
**

The Environment

Adaptation and Agility

Reactive Strategy

Proactive Strategy

• Ubiquity of Projects

• Dealing with Project Complexity

3

2. PERT Example

A. AON Network Diagrams:

General Foundry

**Diagramming a project’s network of activities
**

Installation of air-pollution control equipment @ General Foundry, Milwaukee

Immediate

Activity Description Predecessor

A build internal components ___

B modify roof and floor ___

C construct collection stack A

D pour concrete and install frame B

E build hi-temp burner C

F install control system C

G install air-pollution control device D,E

Hinspect and test F,G

4

2. PERT Example

A. AON Network Diagrams (continued):

General Foundry

A C

edge or arc

Node A represents Node C represents

Activity A Activity C

The edge or arc represents

the precedence relationship

between the two activities

5

2. PERT Example

A. AON Network Diagrams (continued):

General Foundry continued

A C

B D

F

C

A

E

B

D

PERT Example A. AON Network Diagrams (continued): General Foundry concluded F A C H E B D G . 6 2.

B F . AON Network Diagrams (continued) The General Foundry project network began on more than one node and ended on a single node. C F Beginning with more A E than one node and ending with more C D than one node. PERT Example A. 7 2. Other variants are: B Beginning with one E node and ending with A D more than one node.

The use of such a convention is not necessary and will generally be avoided. . 8 2. AON Network Diagrams (concluded) Sometimes the following convention is used. A E Start C D Finish B F The “Start” and “Finish” boxes tie the network off at its ends and give one a sense that the network has defined points in time at which the project begins and ends . PERT Example A.

8b 2. AOA Network Diagrams (continued): General Foundry Activity A 1 2 edge or arc Node 1 represents the Node 2 represents the beginning of Activity A ending of Activity A The edge or arc represents Activity A . PERT Example A2.

PERT Example A2. AOA Network Diagrams (continued): General Foundry continued 1 A 2 C A 2 1 B 3 A C 4 2 E 1 B 3 D 5 . 8c 2.

8d 2. PERT Example A2. AOA Network Diagrams (continued): General Foundry concluded C 2 4 A F 1 H 7 E 6 B 3 D G 5 .

P. I. a third convention. Act. Two nodes are connected by one and only one activity (edge or arc). A C A __ A C B __ C A. When constructing Network diagrams using the AOA approach.B B d1 B D D B No. D D Act. this is preferred and why? • Finally. and why not? D Rather.B B B D A E E E B . this convention is followed--network diagrams begin on a single node and end on a single node. • Note also a second convention in AOA Network diagram construction. 2.P. NO! A d1 A A __ C C B __ d2 C A. I. An arc cannot emanate from or terminate at more than one node. PERT Example 8e A2. AOA Network Diagrams (concluded) • Note that the General Foundry project network on slide #6 began on a single node and ended on a single node. Thus.

• The expected (value) duration time of an individual activity and its variation follow what is called a beta distribution and are calculated as follows: E(ti) = (a + 4m + b) / 6 and var(ti) = (b . and “b” is the activity’s most pessimistic completion time.a)2 / 36 where “a” is the activity’s optimistic completion time. . 9 2. Project Completion Times and Probabilities: General Foundry of Milwaukee • The duration time for each of a Project’s activities in a PERT environment are estimated on the basis of most likely. PERT Example B. pessimistic. and optimistic completion times. “m” is the activity’s most likely completion time. A number of these ways contain substantial subjective components because it is often the case that little historical information is available to guide those estimates. These times can be arrived at in various ways.

Project Completion Times and Probabilities: General Foundry of Milwaukee (continued) • Consider the following table of activities. 4/36 B __ 2 3 4 3 4/36 C A 1 2 3 2 4/36 D B 2 4 6 4 16/36 E C 1 4 7 4 36/36 F C 1 2 9 3 64/36 G D. optimistic. PERT Example B.P. ACT I. 10 2. Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic(b) E(ti) var(ti) A __ 1 week 2 weeks 3 weeks 2 wks.P. and the E(ti) and var(ti) for each activity. most likely. and pessimistic completion times for General Foundry.E 3 4 11 5 64/36 H F.).G 1 2 3 2 4/36 . immediate predecessor(s) (I.

A-C-E-G-H. Project Completion Times and Probabilities: General Foundry of Milwaukee (continued) •From the reduced version of General Foundy’s PERT table. this path is defined as the critical path (CP) being the path that govens the completion time of the project .E 3 4 11 5 64/36 5 H F. 11 2. (a) (m) (b) E(ti) var(ti) F A __ 1 2 3 2 4/36 3 B __ 2 3 4 3 4/36 A C C A 1 2 3 2 4/36 2 2 E H D B 2 4 6 4 16/36 2 B 4 E C 1 4 7 4 36/36 D F C 1 2 9 3 64/36 3 4 G G D. and B-D-G-H.P. PERT Example B. respectively. Summing the E(ti) on each path yield time thru each path of 9. 15.G 1 2 3 2 4/36 Inspection of the network discloses three paths thru the project: A-C-F-H. Despite the beta distribution of each activity. the assumption is made that the number of activities on the CP is sufficient for it to be normally distributed with a variance equal to the sum of the variances of its activities only. var(t) = 112/36 = 3. . the E(ti) for each activity can be entered into the project’s network diagram. ACT I. and 14 weeks.11. With an E(t) = 15 for A-C-E-G-H..

.G 1 2 3 2 4/36 critical path • Inspection of the network discloses three paths thru the project: A-C-F-H. 15. and B-D-G-H.E 3 4 11 5 64/36 H F. respectively. the E(t i) for each activity can be entered into the project’s network diagram. this path is defined as the critical path (CP) being the path that governs the completion time of the project . and 14 weeks. PERT Example B2. With an E(t) = 15 for A-C-E- G-H. (a) (m) (b) E(ti) var(ti) A __ 1 2 3 2 4/36 C2 4 F3 B __ 2 3 4 3 4/36 A2 2 H2 C A 1 2 3 2 4/36 E4 6 7 D B 2 4 6 4 16/36 1 5 G5 E C 1 4 7 4 36/36 3 F C 1 2 9 3 64/36 B 3 D4 G D. Summing the E(t i) on each path yield time thru each path of 9. ACT I.P. the assumption is made that the number of activities on the CP is sufficient for it to be normally distributed with a variance equal to the sum of the variances of its activities only.. var(t) = 112/36 = 3. A-C-E-G-H. 11b 2. Project Completion Times and Probabilities: General Foundry of Milwaukee (continued) • From the reduced version of General Foundy’s PERT table.11. Despite the beta distribution of each activity.

11. Project Completion Times and Probabilites: General Foundry (concluded) • Given General Foundry’s E(t) = 15 weeks and var(t) = 3. 2) .P ( Z < (16 .0. the standard deviation of the expected completion time of General Foundry’s project.11.716 where the value 1. 12 2.57) = 1 .P ( X < 16) = 1 .76 is the square root of 3.15) / 1.76 = . The assumption being made is that summing up a sufficient number of activities following a beta distribution yield a result which approximates or a approaches a variable which is normally distributed--~N(. what is the probability of the project requiring in excess of 16 weeks to complete? P( X > 16) = 1 . PERT Example B.

Slacks • E(arly)S(tart) -. conduct a forward pass where ESj = ESi + ti 0 A 3 B 7 C 9 D 3 4 2 5 0=0+0 3=0+3 7=3+4 9=7+2 What if? 3 B 4 ESB + tB = 7 ? D ESD = 7 C 5 ESC + tC = 9 2 MAX . Finishes.earliest possible commencement time for a project activity. 13 3. CPM Example A. Starts. ES calculation -.beginning at the initial node(s) of a project’s network diagram.

beginning at the initial node(s) of a project’s network diagram . CPM Example A. 14 3.earliest possible time a project’s activity can be completed. Finishes. Starts. Slacks • E(arly)F(inish) -. conduct a forward pass where EFi = ESi + ti 0 A 3 3 B 7 7 C 9 9 D 14 3 4 2 5 3=0+3 7=3+4 9=7+2 14 = 9 + 5 . EF calculation -.

CPM Example A. Finishes. F EF 4 7 ES A 2 C 0 2 4 3 2 2 H E 13 15 4 8 2 0 B 3 D 7 4 3 3 4 G 8 13 5 . Slacks • E(arly) S(tarts). E(arly F(inishes) for Milwaukee Foundry . Starts. 15 3.

5 4 C 2 9 B LFC -tC = 7 A LFB = 3 4 ? D LFD -tD =9 5 14 MIN . conduct a backward pass through the network’s paths where 0 A 3 B 7 C 9 D 14 LFi = LFj . 7=9-2 9 = 14 . LF calculation -. Finishes.tj 3 3 4 7 2 9 5 14 3=7.latest possible time an activity can be completed without delaying the completion time of the project. Slacks •L(ate) F(inish) -.beginning at the final node. 16 3. Starts. CPM Example A.

Starts. 17 3. LSi = LFi .beginning with the final node(s) of the network make a backward pass through the network where L(ate) S(tart) -.ti A B C D 0 3 3 3 4 7 7 2 9 9 14 5 0=3-3 3 = 7 -4 7 = 9 -2 9 = 14 -5 . Slacks LS calculation -. CPM Example A.the latest possible time and activity can begin without delaying the completion time of the project. Finishes.

3. Finishes. 4 F 7 0 A 2 2 C 4 EF 10 3 13 0 2 2 2 2 4 ES 13 H 15 4 E 8 B 13 2 15 0 3 3 D 7 4 4 8 1 LS 3 4 4 4 8 LF 8 G 13 critical path 8 5 13 . CPM Example 18 A. Slacks • E(arly) S(tarts)/ F(inishes) and L(ate) S(tarts)/F(inishes) for Milwaukee Foundry . Starts.

conduct a forward pass where: ESj = ESi + ti 0 A3 3 B4 7 C2 4 9 D 5 1 2 3 ESj 0=0+0 3=0+3 7=3+4 9=7+2 node # 3 2 B4 What if? 9 D5 ESB + tB = 7 4 C2 ESD = 7 ESC + tC = 9 3 MAX . ES calculation -.earliest possible commencement time for a project activity. Finishes. CPM Example A2. 18b 3. Starts.beginning at the initial node(s) of a project’s network diagram. Slacks • E(arly)S(tart) -.

earliest possible time a project’s activity can be completed. Finishes. 18c 3.beginning at the initial node(s) of a project’s network diagram . • EF calculation -. Slacks • E(arly)F(inish) -. Starts. conduct a forward pass where: 0 1 0 A 3 2 3 B4 7 C2 9 D5 3 7 4 9 3 EFi = ESi + ti EFi ESj 3=0+3 7=3+4 9=7+2 3 4 3 node # D4 F5 12 6 12 G3 5 7 7/6 What if? 4 E2 3 4 critical path . CPM Example A2.

E(arly F(inishes) for Milwaukee Foundry . Slacks • E(arly) S(tarts). CPM Example A2. EFi ESj 2 2 C2 4 4 2 4 node # A2 F3 1 0 7/13 13 H2 15 15 E4 6 7 B3 3 3 D4 8/7 8 G5 3 5 critical path . Starts. Finishes. 18d 3.

Slacks • L(ate) F(inish) -.beginning at the final node. 3. Starts. LF calculation -. CPM Example 18e A2.0 What if? 4 C2 9 LFC -tC = 7 LFB = 2 B4 3 LFD -tD =9 ? D5 5 MIN 14 .latest possible time an activity can be completed without delaying the completion time of the project.5 14 = 14 . Finishes. conduct a backward pass through the network’s paths where: LFi = LFj .tj EFi ESi node # LFi 0 A3 B4 C2 D5 14 2 3 4 1 3 7 5 0 9 14 7=9-2 0=3-3 3=7-4 9 = 14 .

beginning with the final node(s) of the network make a backward pass through the network where: LS = LF . Starts. 3.the latest possible time and activity can begin without delaying the completion time of the following activity.t i i i node # EFi ESi LFi LSj B4 C2 D5 5 2 3 4 14 14 A3 3 3 7 7 9 9 1 3=7-4 7 = 9 -2 9 = 14 -5 0 0 0=3-3 4 What if? C2 9 LFC -tC = 7 LSC. LS calculation -. CPM Example 18f A2.D = B 4 3 LFD -tD = 9 2 7/9 D 5 5 14 . Finishes. Slacks • L(ate) S(tart) -.

CPM Example 18g A2. Slacks • E(arly) S(tarts)/ F(inishes) and L(ate) S(tarts)/F(inishes) for Milwaukee Foundry . 3. Starts. Finishes. 2 2 C2 4 4 2 2 4 A2 2 4 10/4 F3 0 0 7/13 13 H2 15 15 1 E4 7 0 0 13 6 13 15 15 B3 3 3 D4 8/7 8 G5 3 5 4 4 8 8 critical path .

ti and where i = the ith activity. Finishes. .the amount of time an activity’s completion can be delayed without delaying the project’s completion where. FSi = ESj .ti and where i = the ith activity and j = the jth activity. 19 3.the amount of time an activity’s completion can be delayed without delaying the commencement of the next activity where. Slacks • T(otal) S(lack) -. CPM Example A. Starts.ESi .ESi . TSi = LFi . • F(ree) S(lack) -.

Slacks • T(otal) S(lacks) and F(ree) S(lacks) for Milwaukee Foundry . 4 F 0 A 2 C 3 13 TSH=0=15-13-2 2 2 2 4 FSH=0=15-13-2 TSE=8-4-4=0 ES FSE=8-4-4=0 D 13 H 3 4 E B 2 15 0 4 4 8 8 3 4 TSD=1=8-4-3 FSD=1=8-4-3 LF TSB=1=4-3-0 FSB=0=3-3-0 G 8 critical path 5 13 . Starts.. CPM Example 20 A. 3. Finishes.

3 TPs B -. Slacks • Shared Slack -.. 7 time periods of activities are scheduled over an 8 time period segment.3TPs B -. Consider the lower path for Milwaukee Foundry.4TPs A -. Finishes.4 TPs divided up. 8 time periods (TPs)* *Other variations are possible if the one TP of slock is A -. B G 0 3 D 8 3 4 4 8 5 13 TSB = 1 TSD = 1 TSG = 0 FSB = 0 FSD = 1 FSG = 0 The slack of one time period along this non-critical path segment is shared between activities B and D. i.e.4TPs . Starts.the slack in a project along a “non-critical” segment of a path which all activities on that non-critical segment share.. A -.3TPs B -. 3. CPM Example 21 A.

FS=0 NOTE: Path C-D-E is the non-critical path and is nested in A-B (the critical path). Hence. 8 13 7 20 A __ 5 25 B A TS=5.when one segment of a non-critical path is imbedded in another segment of a non-critical path.P.. Slacks • Nested Slacks -. . the ES for activity A is 0 and the LF for activity E is 25. respectively. Finishes. FS=0 TS. 0 C 8 D 15 E Activity I. FS=0 TS=5. Starts. 22 3.FS = 5 C __ 0 A 10 B D C 10 10 15 25 E D TS. CPM Example A. the ES and LF for activities A and B . the “free slack” of the terminal activity in the imbedded non-critical segment will not necessarily be 0.FS=0 TS.

8 13 7 20 A __ 5 25 B A TS=5.FS=0 periods. .F F __ TS=3. Starts.P. 0 C 8 D 15 E Activity I.FS = 3 C __ 0 F 10 B D C 17 20 15 25 E D.when one segment of a non-critical path is imbedded in another segment of a non-critical path.ect the two additional time periods of slack shared by them beginning with activity D where TSD = FSD or FSD = 0. 23 3. As a consequence. FS=0 TS=5.FS=0 0 A NOTE: Path A-B is the one critical path in this poject while 10 10 paths F-E and C-D-E are non-critcal with C-D-E nested in F-E and shorter in path length by two time TS. the “free slack” of the terminal activity in the imbedded non-critical segment will not necessarily be 0. FS=2 TS. CPM Example A. in figuring the total and free slacks on C-D-E. Finishes. Slacks • Nested Slacks -.. ref. FS=0 TS.

Starts. 3.2 = 0 2 2 C 2 4 4 2 2 4 A2 2 4 10/8 F3 0 0 13 H2 15 15 1 E4 7/13 7 0 0 TSB = 4 .0 . early start TSC = 4 .3 = 0 B3 3 3 D4 7/8 8 G5 3 5 4 4 8 8 late finish TSD = 8 .2 . Finishes.0 .4 = 1 FSD = 8 . Slacks • T(otal) S(lacks) and F(ree) S(lacks) for Milwaukee Foundry . CPM Example 23b A2..3 .2 .3 = 1 13 6 13 15 FSB = 3 .3 .2 = 0 FSC = 4 .4 = 1 .

3TPs D -. Consider the lower path for Milwaukee Foundry. CPM Example 23c A2.the slack in a project along a “non-critical” segment of a path which all activities on that non-critical segment share. Slacks • Shared Slack -.4TPs B -. B -. Starts.4 TPs divided up.. i. 7 time periods of activities are scheduled over an 8 time period segment. 3.3 TPs D -. 1 4 D4 8 2 B 3 5 3 4 5 TSD = 1 8 TSB = 1 FSD = 1 FSB = 0 C8 0 TSC = 0 4 FSC = 0 0 The slack of one time period along this non-critical path segment is shared between activities B and D.4TPs .e..3TPs D -. Finishes. 8 time periods (TPs)* *Other variations are possible if the one TP of slock is B -.

Starts. respectively.P.when one segment of a non-critical path is imbedded in another segment of a non-critical path. FS=0 13 20 E5 A C8 B A C __ 5 25 0 1 25 D C 0 E D B15 A10 3 10 TS.FS=0 TS. Slacks • Nested Slacks -. CPM Example A2. TS=5. FS=0 2 8 D7 4 15 Activity I. Hence.FS=0 10 NOTE: Path C-D-E is the non-critical path and is nested in A-B (the critical path). the ES and LF for activities A and B . the ES for activity A is 0 and the LF for activity E is 25. TS. the “free slack” of the terminal activity in the imbedded non-critical segment will not necessarily be 0. .FS = 5 __ TS=5. Finishes.. 23d 3.

Starts. FS=2 2 8 D7 17 4 TS. in figuring the total and free slacks on C-D-E.FS=0 10 20 NOTE: Path A-B is the one critical path in this project while paths F-E and C-D-E are non-critical with C-D-E nested in F-E and shorter in path length by two time periods. FS=0 13 20 __ C8 E5 A B A F17 5 25 C __ 0 1 TS=3. TS=5. CPM Example A2.P. Finishes..FS = 3 Activity I. FS=0 25 0 D C A10 B15 E D. TS=5.F 3 10 TS. 23e 3. Slacks • Nested Slacks -.when one segment of a non-critical path is imbedded in another segment of a non-critical path. . the “free slack” of the terminal activity in the imbedded non-critical segment will not necessarily be 0. they reflect the two additional tim periods of slack shared by them beginning with activity D.FS=0 F __ TS. As a consequence.

48K G -.critical path .56K H -. 3.22K ($22.30K E -. CPM Example 24 B.26K F -.30K * -.000) D -. Resource Allocation Scheduling (ES) Activity TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5 TP6 TP7 TP8 TP9 TP10 TP11 TP12 TP13 TP14 TP15 *A (2) 11K 11K B (3) 10K 10K 10K *C (2) 13K 13K D (4) 12K 12K 12K 12k *E (4) 14K 14K 14K 14K F (3) 10K 10K 10K *G (5) 16K 16K 16K 16K 16K *H (2) 8K 8K 21 21 23 25 36 36 36 14 16 16 16 16 16 8 8 21 42 65 90 126 162 198 212 228 244 260 276 292 300 308 Activity Cost A -.16K C -.80K B -.

16K C -.56K H -.000) D -.48K G -. Resource Allocation Scheduling (LS) Activity TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5 TP6 TP7 TP8 TP9 TP10 TP11 TP12 TP13 TP14 TP15 *A (2) 11K 11K B (3) 10K 10K 10K *C (2) 13K 13K D (4) 12K 12K 12k 12K *E (4) 14K 14K 14K 14K F (3) 10K 10K 10K *G (5) 16K 16K 16K 16K 16K *H (2) 8K 8K 11 21 23 23 26 26 26 26 16 16 26 26 26 8 8 11 32 55 78 104 130 156 182 198 214 240 266 292 300 308 Activity Cost A -. 3. CPM Example 25 B.30K E -.critical path .26K F -.30K * -.80K B -.22K ($22.

P 250 r o 200 Early Start j. 26 3. Resource Allocation Scheduling Early/Late Start Resource Allocation Schedules 350 C u 300 m. CPM Example B. Late Start 150 C 100 o s t 50 s 0 TP1 TP3 TP5 TP7 TP9 TP11 TP13 TP15 Project Time Periods .

if reducing a joint activity means that more critical paths emerge that what would otherwise be the case. . generally reduce the duration time of the one joint to the most paths. reduce the length (in time) of all critical paths simultaneously. the least costly activity closest to the completion node(s) of the project. As a result of this increase in cost. CPM Example 27 CPM with Crashing --a • It is sometime necessary to accelerate the completion time of a project. 3) Reduce critical activity duration times on the basis of the least costly first and in case of a tie. 4. 1) Reduce duration times of critical activities only. reduce disjoint activities. This usually leads to greater cost in completing the project than what might have otherwise been the case because of opportunity costs incurred as the result of diverting resources away from other pursuits. 5) Given two or more critical paths and a cost tie between a joint activity and a subset of disjoint activities on the same critical path. 6) Note. 4) When two or more critical paths exist. it is incumbent upon project managers to reduce the completion time of the project in the most cost effective way possible. 2) Do not reduce the duration time of critical activity such that its path length (in time) falls below the lengths (in time) of other paths in the network. The following guidelines are designed to achieve that end.

T. 4. A-C-F-H : 9 *A .D .C .5K *G 5 2 80K 86K 2K *H 2 1 16K 19K 3K * .C.C. N.T. C.C. CPM Example 28 CPM with Crashing --b • Consider the crashing of the Milwaukee Foundry Project Act. N.Critical Path An inspection of Milwaukee Foundry’s project network identifies the following three paths and of duration.5K 0.G -H : 15 B .H : 14 .C. *A 2 1 22K 23K 1K B 3 1 30K 34K 2K *C 2 1 26K 27K 1K D 4 3 48K 49K 1K *E 4 1 56K 59K 1K F 3 2 30K 30.G .E . U. C.

.C.G . 4.H : 14 14 time unit. C. *A .5K periods. U.E .C.crash one time D period and two CPs emerge. Reduce G. E has the lowest U.SECOND CRITICAL PATH 4 Now reduce H by one time 1 A-C-F-H : 9 8 unit. three time F 3 2 30K 30. *A . reduce E & B by one A-C-F-H : 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 time unit.C.5K 0. as G.D .T. 4 3 3 48K 49K 1K 3 2K 2 One can now reduce Acts.C.G -H : 15 14 11 10 9 8 7 B . *A 2 1 22K 23K 1K 1 Act.C .C. 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 Finally.C. N. CPM Example 29 CPM with Crashing --c ACT N. C.E .D ..C. E & *E 4 3 2 1 1 56K 59K 1K 1 1K D or G.H : 14 14 11 10 9 8 7 .T.G . B 3 2 1 1 30K 34K 2K 5 3K and closest to the final node of *C 2 1 1 26K 27K 1K 6 3K the network-. *G 5 2 2 80K 86K 2K 2 6K 3 Now E & D can be reduced *H 2 1 1 16K 19K 3K 4 3K one time period for the same 308 K 18K U.C . It is A joint activity.G -H : 15 14 5 Now reduce C & B by one B .C.

CPM Example 30 CPM with Crashing --d ( Summary) • Why would reduce Activity E in crashing step one ( 1 ) and by only one time unit? • Why do you reduce Activity G and not Activities E & D in 2 and by three time units? • Why do you now reduce Activities E & D in 3 and by only one time unit? • Why do you reduce Activity H in 4 ? • Why do you now reduce E & B in 5 but by only one time unit? • Why do you now reduce C & B in 6 and how do you know now that you have crashed the project down to the minimum possible completion time? • Why were Activities A & F never reduced? • Why should we concern ourselves with crashing a project by always reducing the least costly activities first? . 4.

31 5. PERT Simulation --agenda-- • Motivation • Illustrative Examples • Performing Simulations with WinQSB .

PERT Simulation 32 • Motivation ▪ non-stochasticity/stochasticity & non-critical paths ▪ independence of/interdependence between paths ▪ strength of an assumption . 5.

11 for A-C-F-H and 2. and 14 weeks. respectively.11 (112. • • ACT I. also have variances of 2. A-C-E-G-H.G 1 2 3 2 4/36 3 4 G • Inspection of the network discloses three paths thru the project: 5 • A-C-F-H. We assume all three paths to be normally distributed.36). 15. • Implications of assuming non-stochasticity on the (two) non-critical paths-- how serious? • How strong is the assumption of non-stochasticity in this case? .P. this path is defined as the critical path (CP) having a path variance of 3. PERT Simulation—motivation 33 --non-stochasticity/stochasticity & non-critical paths-- Reconsider General Foundry of Milwaukee • The E(ti) for each activity in this reduced version of General Foundy’s PERT table has been entered into the project’s network diagram. 5. (a) (m) (b) E(ti) var(ti) F A __ 1 2 3 2 4/36 • B __ 2 3 4 3 4/36 3 • C A 1 2 3 2 4/36 A C • D B 2 4 6 4 16/36 2 2 E H • E C 1 4 7 4 36/36 2 • F C 1 2 9 3 64/36 B 4 • G D. The other paths however. Summing the E(ti) on each path yields the time thru each path to be 9. and B-D-G-H.E 3 4 11 5 64/36 D • H F.44 for B-D-G-H. With an E(t) = 15 for A-C-E-G-H.

5. PERT Simulation--motivation 34 --independence of/interdependence between paths-- Reconsider General Foundry of Milwaukee F A C 3 E H A C 2 2 4 2 2 2 H E 2 4 B G B D D F G 3 5 3 4 3 4 5 Digraph with independent paths Digraph with interdependent paths Which paths are interdependent and why? Why might this path interdependence complicate estimating the expected completion time of this project? How strong might the assumption of path independence be in this case? .

15.1 4 7. (a) (m) (b) E(ti) var(ti) A __ 1 2 3 2 4/36 A __ 1 2 3 2 4/36 B __ 2 3 4 3 4/36 B __ .1 3 5.G table 1 above 2 merely 3 2 replicates 4/36 The PERT table above H F.9 3 33.513. and 2. how might estimation results of completion times with respect to Case 1 and Case 2 differ one from the other? .11.9 4 60.44. PERT Simulation—illustrative examples Reconsider General Foundry of Milwaukee CASE 1 CASE 2 ACT I. and B-D-G-H have duration times path as before B-D-G-H now has E(t)s of 9. Relaxing the two assumptions that 1) non-critical paths are non-stochastic and 2) paths are independent of each other.P. of 2.P. respectively.E 3 4 11 5 64/36 TheHPERT F.84/36 E C 1 4 7 4 36/36 E C 1 4 7 4 36/36 F C 1 2 9 3 64/36 F C 1 2 9 3 64/36 G D. 3. A-C-E-G-H.11. (a) (m) (b) E(ti) var(ti) ACT I.64/36 C A 1 2 3 2 4/36 C A 1 2 3 2 4/36 D B 2 4 6 4 16/36 D B . and 14 weeks with variances a variance of 4.G 1 2in contrast 3 2 to the 4/36one at the results of a previous page–paths its left while replicating the same path expected A-C-F-H. 35 5.E 3 4 11 5 64/36 G D.

000 for the # of simulated observations to be made. 36 5. PERT Simulation—running WinQSB • Why simulation? Consider Case 2 • Running WinQSB ▪ Open PERT/CPM > Select PERT > enter problem > Solve & Analyze > perform simulation ▪ The simulation input menu will drop defaulting to “random seed” with the estimated completion time of the critical path based on the standard method presented in 2b. ▪ Enter the desired completion time … ▪ Click on the simulation button. ▪ Enter 10. ▪ View the results .

11.16% A-C-F-H: 9. σ2 = 3. σ2 = 3. prob(X < 17) = 82. A-C-E-G-H: 15. and B-D-G-H: 14.H.11.44 • independent paths/non-stochastic non-critical paths assumptions NOT in play Simulation E(t) = 15.19. A-C-E-G-H: 15. σ2 = 2.513 (strength of the above assumptions if in play with Case 2 ????) . σ2 = 2. A-C-E-G-H: 15.51% A-C-F-H: 9. and B-D-G-H: 14.11. PERT Simulation—running WinQSB Results: Foundry Project • independent paths/non-stochastic non-critical paths assumptions in play E(t) = 15.11. σ2 = 2.11. CP ≡ A – C – E – G .44 (strength of the above assumptions if in play with Case 1 ????) • independent paths/non-stochastic non-critical paths assumptions NOT in play E(t) = 15. σ2 = 2.39. prob(X < 17) = 87. and B-D-G-H: 14. σ2 = 4.10% A-C-F-H: 9. σ2 = 2. 37 5. prob(X < 17) = 86. σ2 = 3.11.

38 5. PERT Simulation—running WinQSB • Generalizations??? .

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