Addressing Climate Change in South Asia

The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.

Robert J. Dobias Senior Adviser, Climate Change Asian Development Bank 29 June 2010

 Climate challenge in
South Asia Dealing with uncertainty  Populations and sectors at risk  National responses and ADB assistance  SAARC sub-regional responses  Way forward

Climate Challenge in South Asia
Glacial Melt • Glacier mass losses and snow cover reduction • Creation/ continuing growth of glacial lakes • GLOFs Flooding • Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka historically prone to flooding • Worsening floods in recent years • Stormier future to aggravate likelihood of floods Erosion • India: 26% of coastline prone, estimated at 450 ha land lost per year • Sri Lanka: 45-55% of coastline eroding by 0.30-0.35 m per year Salt Water Intrusion • Bangladesh: >100 m ha of arable land affected • Large-scale emigration from coastal cities feared in India • All of Maldives affected by salt water

Sea Level Rise • Results in more tidal inundations • By 2050: 45cm in Bangladesh affecting 10-15% of land and 35 m people; 15-38 cm in India • Threatens Sri Lanka coastal areas and the all the islands of Maldives (<1masl)

Populations and Sectors At Risk
Population Groups  Agriculture-dependent rural poor  Low-elevation coastal communities Sectors  Water  Agriculture  Energy  Biodiversity  Human health

Key Impacts on the Water Sector
 Changes in the water cycle  Floods  Salt intrusion in coastal aquifers  Droughts

Key Impacts on Agriculture
 Declining yields of major crops  Decreasing viability of farming in marginal areas (arid, semi-arid and coastal areas)  Crop destruction by extreme weather events

Key Impacts on the Energy Sector
 Accelerating demand  Further stresses on existing networks  Reduced hydropower potential

Key Impacts on Biodiversity
 Further damage to ecosystems  Vegetation shifts, loss of habitats, dependent species and important ecological goods and services  Biodiversity loss in the Himalayas and glacier-fed ecosystems  Biodiversity threats from sea-level rise

Human Health and Social Sector
 Greater incidence of climatesensitive diseases  Direct health risks from extreme events  Risks from climate-induced environmental and economic changes

 Increased poverty and deprivation  Greater need for social protection by vulnerable groups

Climate Change and Natural Disasters
 Higher probability of extreme events and slow onset disasters  Cost of damages will rise  Damages at household level could be devastating for the poor
High: 25 Low: 0 High: 8 Low: 1

High: 25 Low: 0

High: 10 Low: 1

Flood frequency index

Slides frequency index

High: 7 Low: 1

Drought frequency index

Cyclone frequency index

Climate Change and Migration
 Poverty-induced migration will increase  Greater rural-urban migration will intensify the pressures on urban environments and services delivery  Urban poverty will rise

Conceptualisation of the cascade of uncertainty

GHG emissions

Climate model

Regional scenario

Impact model

Local impacts

Adaptation responses

The envelope of uncertainty

Observed non-climatic pressures

Vulnerab ility (now) Adaptati on options A, B, C.... Preferred measure s B, H, S, W Vulnerab ility (future) Robust measure s B, W Adaptati on pathway s W then B

Observed climate variability and change

Social acceptability Technical feasibility

Economic appraisal Regulatory context

Monitor ing

Narratives of non-climatic pressures
Adaptation principles

Climate change narratives
Sensitivity analysis

Performance appraisal

New evidence

Scenarioneutral approach to practical adaptation

Adaptation pathways of TE2100

Source: Environment Agency

National Responses: Bangladesh
 NAPA (2005)  Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2008)  Multi-donor trust fund

ADB-assisted Projects  Cluster Capacity Development TA  Sustainable Power Sector Development  Urban Governance and Infrastructure Improvement II  Strengthening the Resilience of the Water Sector in Khulna to Climate Change 

National Responses: Bhutan
 NAPA (2006)  National Environment Commission

ADB-assisted Projects  Capacity Development TA for CDM and IWRM  Green Power Development Project

National Responses: India
ADB-assisted Projects:  Assam Power Sector Investment  “Energy Smart” Madhya Pradesh  Gujarat Paguthan Wind Energy  Integrated RE Development  EE Enhancement in Power Generation Sector  Tata Wind Energy  Central Uttar Pradesh Gas Ltd  Kerala Sustainable Urban Development  Targets 20-25% reduction in emission intensity by 2020 as against 2005  National Action Plan on Climate Change (2008)  Eight “missions” to implement action plan  Rajashtan Urban Infrastructure Development  Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on Indus-dependent Water Resources and Energy

National Responses: Maldives
 Targets 100% emissions reduction by 2020 as against 2009 levels  NAPA (2006)  Capacity Development TA (UNDP)

National Responses: Nepal
 Strengthening Capacity for Managing Climate Change and the Environment  Energy Access and Energy Efficiency Improvement Project
 NAPA (in process)  Climate Change Committee

National Responses: Sri Lanka
ADB-assisted Projects:  Forest Resources Management Sector Project  Local Government Infrastructure Improvement Project
 Climate Change Secretariat  National Sustainable Development Strategy (under preparation)

Sub-regional Responses: SAARC
 Delhi Declaration (2007)  Dhaka Declaration and Climate Change Action Plan (2008)  Kathmandu Agreed Vision for South Asia on Climate Change (2009)  SAWCCA  Joint statement for COP 15  SAARC Silver Jubilee Summit (2010)

Way Forward
 Continue mitigation assistance  Increase adaptation assistance, focusing on water and agriculture  Assist in climate mainstreaming, risk screening and climate proofing of DMC development projects

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