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AERMOD Model Case Study

Pune City

Mohit C. Dalvi
Computational Atmospheric Sciences Team
Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC)
Pune University Campus, Pune
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Overview

About C-DAC
Air Pollution overview
Air Quality Management Components
Air Quality Modeling overview
AERMOD Model
Case study using Linux AERMOD
Use of AQ Model for scenario analysis
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About C-DAC

High Performance Computing

Hardware solutions

GIS Solutions

Scientific Computing
Advanced Computing Training

Artificial Intelligent

Language Technology

Medical Informatics
Evolutionary Computing
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Computational Atmospheric Sciences

Activities
ComputationalResearch
WorkflowEnvironment
Development
TechnologyDevelopment
ParallelProgramming
ModelPorting,Optimisation&
Simulations
Joint Collaborative Research
GridComputing
Turnkey solutions

Contract Projects

Consultancy
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Computational Atmospheric Sciences

GlobalForecastModels UKMO: PUM Model Output (JJAS 2005)


Average Daily Precipitation (mm/day)

NCEP'sT170/T254/T382/PUM

MultiinstitutionalERMPprogram
RegionalWeatherResearch

MM5/WRF/MM5Climate/RegCM/RSM

RealTimeWeatherSystem(RTWS)

Coupledsystemdevelopment(IITMCollaboration)
ClimateModels Air Quality/Environmental Computing

CCSM GIS based emissions modeling with IITM

ClimateChangeStudies Offline WRFChem with NOAA/FSL

OceanModels WRF+AERMOD for Pune AQM with


USEPA

MOM4/POM/ROMS/HYCOM

Coupledsystemdevelopment(IITM Aerosol studies using LMDzT Off-line

collaboration) version with IIT-B



Oceanresponsestudies
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Air Pollution

Air quality-------- degree of purity of the air to which people and


natural resources are exposed at any given moment.

Definitions : Air (Prevention & Control of Pollution) Act, 1981


Air pollutant" means any solid, liquid or gaseous substance
2
[(including noise)] present in the atmosphere in such
concentration as may be or tend to be injurious to human beings
or other living creatures or plants or property or environment;

Air pollution" means the presence in the atmosphere of any air


pollutant

Primary air pollutants = chemicals that enter directly into the


atmosphere. E.g carbon oxides, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides,
particulate matter, hydrocarbons

Secondary air pollutants = chemicals that form from other already


present in the atmosphere. E.g ozone, sulfurous acid, PAN
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Air Pollution

Pollutants- Sources & Effects


Pollutant Natural Sources Anthropogenic Sources Effects

Nitrogen Oxides Bacterial activity, Fuel combustion, Acid rain,Aerosols, PAN,


(NO, N20) Lightning Chemical process ozone, smog
lung damage, leaf
damage,carcinogen

Sulphur dioxide Volcano, forest Fuel combustion, Forms H2SO3 aerosols-smog,


fires, bacterial Chemical process burning sensation, @ 20ppm-
activity lung, eye damage

Carbon monoxide Oxidation of Combustion carboxyhaemoglobin (HbCO),


hydrocarbons by (incomplete), chemical smog formation
bact, plants, ocean reaction

Hydrocarbons, Decomposition, Fuel combustion Particles, smog, respiratory


Volatile Organic plants,soil (incomplete), damage, carcinogens, global
Carbons (VOC) evaporation, chemical warming, ozone damage.
processes
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Air Pollution

Particulate Matter
Non respirable Wind blown, Crushing, Visibility, plant
(>10m) dust, pollen shredding damage, carriers

Respirable Dust,forest fires, Crushing, Visibility, plant,


Coarse volcanoes, grinding, traffic lungs-asthma
(2.5 10 m)

Respirable fine Ocean spray, Construction, Lung, eyes,


(<2.5 m) fires, dust, combustion, plants,allergens
volcano processes carcinogens,
property
Average composition Elemental/ organic carbon, sulphates, nitrates,
ammonium, soil, pollen, cotton
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Air Pollution

Global Warming

Global warming potential (GWP) and other properties of CO2, CH4, and N2O.
Relative absorption
Gas Concentration Annual increase Lifetime (years) GWP
capacity *

CO2 355 ppmv 1.8 ppmv 120 1 1


CH4 1.72 ppmv 10-13 ppbv 12-17 58 24.5q**
Pune City
N2O 310 ppbv 0.8 ppbv 120 206 320
ppmv = parts per million by volume ppbv = parts per billion by volume
* per unit mass change from present concentrations, relative to CO2
GWP Global Warming Potential following addition of 1kg of each gas, relative to CO2 for a 100 year time horizon
** Including the direct effect of CH4 and indirect effects due to the production of tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapour.

Source: Bouwman, 1995.


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Air Pollution

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY

Interactions of Pollutants
Primary Pollutant + Prim. Pollutant Sec Pollutant
Prim. Pollutant + Existing component Sec Pollutant
Primary/ Secondary Pollutant Decay/ Removal
- Photolysis
- Dry Deposition (on soil, vegetation)
- Wet Deposition (washout by rain, on fog, cloud droplet)
- Radioactive decay
- Absorption/ uptake by plants/ animals
- Dissolution in water body/ ocean
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Air Pollution

Air Pollution Legislations Brief History

Some reference in Factories Act, 1860s/ 1948

1952 London smog Inversion conditions for 4 days smoke


from coal (fireplaces, boilers) stagnated - ~4000 deaths

Clean Air Act (UK) 1956 & 1968

Clean Air Act (USA) 1970

Air (Prevention & Control of Pollution) Act, 1981

Bhopal Gas Tragedy, 1984

Environmental Protection Act, 1986


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Air Pollution

National Ambient Air Quality Standards

Concentration in ambient air


Time-weighted
Pollutants Industrial Residential Sensitive
Average
Areas Areas Areas

Sulphur Dioxide Annual Average* 80 g/m3 60 g/m3 15 g/m3


(SO2)
24 hours** 120 g/m3 80 g/m3 30 g/m3

Oxides of Nitrogen Annual Average* 80 g/m3 60 g/m3 15 g/m3


as NO2
24 hours** 120 g/m3 80 g/m3 30 g/m3
Suspended Annual Average* 360 g/m3 140 g/m3 70 g/m3
Particulate Matter
(SPM) 24 hours** 500 g/m3 200 g/m3 100 g/m3

Respirable Annual Average* 120 g/m3 60 g/m3 50 g/m3


Particulate Matter
(RPM) (size <10) 24 hours** 150 g/m3 100 g/m3 75 g/m3

CO Concentration 8 hours 5.0 mg/m3 2.0 mg/m3 1 mg/m3


1 hour 10.0 mg/m3 4.0 mg/m3 2 mg/m3

** 24 hourly values should be met 98% of the time in a year. However, 2% of the time it may exceed but not on two consecutive days.
* Annual average = annual arithmetic mean of minimum 104 measurements in a year taken twice a week 24 hourly at uniform interval
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Air Quality Management
Air Quality Management - Components
Monthly variation PM10 levels
800

700

600

500
Level ug/m3

Sw argate
400 Nalstop
Bhosari
300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month

Air Quality Monitoring


GIS based Emission
Source Apportionment
gridding

Emission Inventory

Meteorological
Strategies, Planning, Development Data

Air Pollution Modeling


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Impacts Assessment
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Air Quality Management

Air Quality monitoring methods

Passive Methods:

Remote Sensing Satellite Imageries cloud/ haze


Satellite mapping (TOMS NASA for Aerosol &
Ozone)
LIDAR Light Detection & Ranging
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Air Quality Management

Emission Inventory

Is a comprehensive listing of the sources of air pollution


and an estimate of their emissions within a specific
geographic area for a specific time interval.

Inventories can be used to:


Identify sources of pollution
Identify pollutants of concern
Amount, distribution, trends
Identify and track control strategies
Input to air quality modeling
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Air Quality Management

Emission Inventory
Steps:
- Identify sources of pollution
- Measure/ estimate pollutant release from single unit
- Extrapolate to expected no. of sources of same type

Pollutant from 1 car of type A


(gm/km or gm/lt fuel)
x
Avg distance travelled = Total emissions
(or lts of fuel consumed) from car type A in
given region/
street
X

No of cars of type A in given area


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Air Quality Management

Meteorological Data
Main driver for movement of pollutants (and interactions)

Inversion layer

wind
Deposition,
turbulence washout

Buoyancy
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Air Quality Management

Meteorological Data
Parameters of importance :
Wind components driving force for advection.
Temperature, Surface Heat, lapse rate for buoyancy,
plume rise, stability, vertical transport
Rainfall, humidity removal by wet deposition
Cloud cover wet deposition, light intensity (for
photochemistry), radiation balance
Landuse, albedo for biogenic/ geogenic emissions,
chemistry, dry deposition
Terrain impact on wind, obstacle to movement

Source : Weather stations, balloons, SODAR, satellites

For forecasting/ projections numerical weather


prediction models
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Air Quality Modeling

TYPES OF AIR QUALITY MODELS

Physical Models Laboratory representations of real


life phenomenon
Mathematical Models Set of analytical/ numerical
algorithms representing physical and chemical aspects
of the behaviour of pollutant in atmosphere.
Can be broadly divided into :
- Statistical Model Semiempirical statistical relations
among available data & measurements
- Determinisitic Models - Fundamental mathematical
descriptions of atmospheric processes. Include the
analytical and numerical models.
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Air Quality Modeling

PHYSICAL MODELS

Scaled Down version of real phenomenon


Attempt to replicate phenomenon under controlled
conditions
E.g Wind Tunnel, Fluid Tanks
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Air Quality Modeling

STATISTICAL MODELS
Statistical models are based on the time series (or any other trend) analysis of
meteorological, emission and air quality data. These models are useful for real time analysis
and short term forecasting.

Eg. Air Quality Monitoring and Modeling for Coimbatore City - P.Meenakshi and R.Elangovan
(CIT)

Use of "least squares" method to analyse how a single dependent variable is affected by the values of one
or more independent variables.

- The monitored data in Coimbatore City are analyzed by multi regression :

SPM= -82.0703 T - 80.5704 P - 0.76381 WD - 2.03456 WV + 64531.68; R = 0.5


SO2= 2.397 T - 1.1481 P + 0.016 WD + 1.173 WV + 831.5413; R = 0.2
NOx= 5.728 T + 3.2582 P - 0.0636 WD + 2.1923 WD + 2.192 WV - 2601.85; R=0.36

Where, T- temperature, P - pressure, WD - wind direction and WV - wind velocity.


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Air Quality Modeling

RECEPTOR MODELS

Receptor Models use the chemical & physical characteristics of measured concentrations
of pollutants at source as well as receptor to identify the presence and contribution of the
source to the pollutant level at receptor.
e.g Chemical Mass Balance Equation

Ci = Fi1S1 + Fi2 S2 + . FiJ SJ

Ci : Concentration of ith species


Fij : Fraction of species i from source j
Sj : Sources contribution from sources 1 J
= Dj * Ej

Ej = Emission rate


T
Dj = 0 d [u(t),s(t),x] dt

u = wind velocity
s = stability parameter
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x = distance of source from receptor


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Air Quality Modeling

DETERMINISTIC MODELS

Calculate/ predict the concentration field based on


mathematical manipulations of the inputs :
- source & emission characteristics
- atmospheric processes affecting transport
- chemical processes affecting mass balance
Eg
- Diffusion models Gaussian models
- Numerical models :
- Eulerian Models
- Lagrangian models
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Air Quality Modeling

Gaussian Plume Model


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Air Quality Modeling

Gaussian Plume Model


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Air Quality Modeling

Gaussian Plume Model - Assumptions


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Air Quality Modeling

Gaussian Plume Model

Simplified form
Q y zH zH
c exp( )[exp( ) exp( )]
2uyz 2y 2
2z 2
2z 2

c = concentration (x,y,z,H) ,
Q emission rate (g/s) ,
u-wind speed@z
y standard deviation of conc. in y direction (stability
dependant)
z - standard deviation of conc. in z direction

Standard deviations determined by using Briggs/ Pasquill-Gifford


formaulas as a function of x (downwind distance) and stability
class
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Air Quality Modeling

PLUME RISE

Initial vertical dispersion of the plume emitted from stack due to


momentum (exhaust velocity) and buoyancy (higher temperature than
surroundings.
Briggs Buoyancy Flux parameter : F b

Fb = v2*r2*g*(Ts-Ta)/Ts v = velocity at exit, r = radius


Ta = air temp, Ts = stack temp

Distance to final plume rise x f = 49(Fb)5/8 for Fb >= 55


119(Fb)2/5 for Fb < 55

Plume rise unstable/ neutral conditions :

h = (1.6 * (Fb)1/3 * (xf)2/3)/u

Plume rise stable conditions :

h = 2.4*( (Fb / us)1/3 ) s = stability parameter (g/Ta) (/z)


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Effective stack height : Ht = h s + h


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Air Quality Modeling

EULERIAN MODELS
Based on conservation of mass of a given pollutant species (r,t)
Modeling Domain is a fixed 3-Dimensional grid of cells
Atmospheric parameters are homogenous for a given cell at t
Computations for each cell at each timestep
c 1 (uc ) (vc cos y )
( )
t r cos y x y u,v wind velocity in x, y direction
advection
1 2c 2c c
Kxy[ 2 ] [ ( Kz )] Kxy, Kz Horizontal, vertical diffusion coeff.
cos y x
2 2
y z z
horizontal diffusion vertical diffusion
Vd = dep velocity, z =plume ht
V
Q( s1 , s2 , s3 ..sn ) df d ( d dt )
z
emission dry deposition W=washout coeff., I=prep. Intensity,H=layer ht
Pc=Product matrix, Rc=Reactant matrix
WI
df w ( c) dR ( Pc Rc)
H
wet deposition chemical process

Soln : Finite differences, FiniteElement, Parabolic req initial & boundary conditions
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Air Quality Modeling

LAGRANGIAN MODELS

Lagrangian approach derived from fluid mechanics simulate fluid


elements following instantaneous flow
Frame of reference follows the air mass/ particle
Advection not computed separately as against Eulerian
<c(r,t)> = - t
p(r,t|r,t) S(r,t) dr dt
c(r,t) = conc. At locus r at time t
S(r,t) source term (g/m3s)
p = probability density function that parcel moves from r,t to r,t
(for any r & t>t p<=1) (solved statistically e.g Monte Carlo)
Chemistry/ dry/wet removal handled by change in mass at each step:
m (t+t) = m (t) exp(-t/R) ,
R: rate of reaction/dry/wet deposition
- Preferred method for particle tracking
- Puff simulation by simulation at centre of mass of puff
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Air Quality Modeling

Comparison Eulerian, Lagrangian frames

Eulerian approach Lagrangian approach

z
t
t1

t t1 y
x

Combined models: Eulerian models where individual puff/particle are


handled by Langragian module till it attains grid dimensions
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Air Quality Modeling

AERMOD (AERMIC MODEL)

Developed by AMS/ EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee

- 1994 2001 till first version


- Steady-state Gaussian Plume Dispersion Model
-Improvements over traditional Gaussian Models (ISC)
Pune City

- Computes turbulence before dispersion


- Separate schemes for Convective & Stable BL
- Inbuilt computation of vertical profiles (PDF)
- Urban handling- nighttime boundary layer

- Specified as Preferred Regulatory Model by USEPA in 2006


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Air Quality Modeling

AERMOD Modeling System

DEM Data Receptors Surface Obs. Upper Air Data

AERMAP AERMET Site Met.


Data
TERRAIN METEOROLOGICAL
PREPROCESSOR PREPROCESSOR

Sources & Emissions AERMOD Concentration Profiles


Average, Exceedance,
Point, Area, Volume MAIN MODEL Source Contributions
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Version 02222
AERMOD Modeling System

AERMET Meteorological Preprocessor


- Extract, Quality check & Preprocess- Raw Met. data
- Inputs :
Surface Observation Parameters (Hourly)
- Minimum :Ambient Temperature,Wind direction & speed, sky cover
- File formats : NWS, CD-144, TD-3280, Samson
Upper Air Data
- Supports NWS (twice daily) UA soundings, NOAA-FSL data
- Parameters (Levelwise): Atmospheric Pressure, Height,
Temperature (dry bulb),Wind direction, Wind speed

Onsite Meteorological Records


- Optional User specified format

- Output
1. Surface File with PBL parameters
2. Profile file with levelwise data
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AERMOD Modeling System

AERMOD Model
- Inputs : Outputs from AERMAP & AERMET
- Source & Emission Information:
- Point sources:
- Locations, Emission Rate, Stack parameters. Building dimensions

- Area Sources :
- Location & dimensions, Emission rate
- Volume Sources:
Location, initial dimensions, Emission Rate

- Urban Source Option Population [and Surface Roughness]


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Pune - Air Quality Modeling
WRF-AERMOD coupling for Pune Air Quality Modeling
(MOEF-USEPA Program for Urban Air Quality Management)
- C-DAC role: Emission inventory, data
processing, air quality modeling
- Hourly meteorology req. for AERMOD air
quality model
- First time in the world Development of
Preprocessor for coupling WRF and AERMOD
- Stakeholders: PMC, NEERI, MPCB, C-DAC ,. . .
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Case Study

Pune City

- Rural Area One processing plant, two clusters of households


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Case Study

Emission Inventory
Industry:
Manufacturing plant using coal. Requires 10 tonnes coal/
day with ash 36%.
Pollution control equipment : scrubber with 90%
efficiency

Particulate matter emissions:


Pune City

10 tonnes/day coal x 0.36 tonnes/ton ash x 0.8 (percent


flyash) = 2.88 tonnes/day fly ash

Scrub : 2.88 x (100-90)/100 = 0.288 tn/day


(0.288 tn/day x 1,000,000 gm/tn )/ 86400 sec/day =
3.33 gm/sec

Stack details : ht = 25 m , top dia = 0.5 m,


exit velocity = 5 m/s, exit temp = 453. 0K
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Case Study

Emission Inventory
Household cooking: Stoves using firewood and kerosene in 65:35 usage
ratio.
Consumption : firewood - 175 kg/p/yr; kerosene 56 kg/p/yr (PMC)
Emission factors : firewood 1.7 g/kg ; kerosene = 0.6 g/kg (URBAIR)
Population cluster1 500. cluster2 245.
Area : cluster1 800 sq.m ; cluster2 550 sq.m

Amount of firewood :
Cluster1 : 500 persons x 0.65 x 175 = 56875Pune
kg/yr = 155 kg/day
City

Cluster2 : 245 persons x 0.65 x 175 = 27878 kg/yr = 76.3 kg/day


Kerosene :
Cluster1 : 500 persons x 0.35 x 56 = 9800 kg/yr = 26.84 kg/day
Cluster2 : 245 persons x 0.35 x 56 = 4802 kg/yr = 13.15 kg/day

Emissions:
Cluster1 : (155 x 1.7) + (26.84 x 0.6) = 279.6 g/day = 0.0032
gm/sec / 800 = 4.0E-6 g/sec-m2
Cluster2 : (76.3 x 1.7) + (13.15 x 0.6) = 137.1 g/day = 0.0016
gm/sec / 550 = 2.91E-6 g/sec-m2
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AERMOD Modeling System

GUI for AERMOD model on Linux Platform

AERMOD designated by USEPA as


replacement for ISC model.
AERMOD set-up (sources, receptors,
options) cumbersome
Linux based graphical user interface for
ease of use Pune City

Features:
Drawing tools to specify the source/
receptors
Simplified forms to specify options.
Online validation of parameters
Automatic generation of the input file.
Actual AERMOD runs through the GUI
Post-processing for contour plots
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Case Study Demo
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AERMOD Modeling System

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Feasibility of using Pune AQM system for Control Scenarios


- Simplifying the process : Inventory Model input
- Scenarios
Planned Development/ Controls (PMC)
Probable/ Likely situations/ measures
-Sourcewise controls and emissions impacts
-Projected 2010, 2015
-Currently Relative impacts on contribution from specified
sources
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Base Case Run : 2006-07

Average Contribution of Sources to PM10 over Pune Base Case run

Pune City* AQM Cell K. Park Oasis Mandai


6.63 115.0 93.64 71.99 61.92 106.72
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(avg: 51.64)
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Vehicular Sources BAU 2010/ 2015


- Increase in Vehicle population as per RTO/ PMC- AQM Cell survey
2-Wheelers 3-Wheelers 4-Wheelers incl. Light Heavy Vehicles
Comm Veh
8.3% 7.0% 9.0% 3.0%

- Results

PM10 (g/m3) from Pune City AQM Cell K. Park Oasis Mandai
Vehicles
% diff. (2010-2007) 21.95 to 36.69 (avg 23.53 31.06 23.67 31.1
26.15)
%diff (2015 2007) 74.75 to 96.16 (avg 76.77 87.84 77.14 87.98
80.72)
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Vehicular Sources CNG 2010/ 2015


- 3-Wheelers 40% conversion by 2010; 100% by 2015
- Passenger Cars 5% by 2010, 10% by 2015
- Results

PM10 (g/m3) from Pune City AQM Cell K. Park Oasis Mandai
Vehicles

% diff. (CNG BAU) 2010 -4.38 to -0.64 (avg -1.53) -1.5 -1.46 -1.5 -1.35

% diff. (CNG BAU) 2015 -34.6 to -31.35 (avg -32.12 -32.6 -32.13 -32.22
32.18)
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Vehicular Sources PMT 2010/ 2015


- Improvement in PMT bus service increased no/ frequency:-
Expected to benefit about 20000 passengers daily
Reduction in personal vehicle trips by these passengers
- Results

PM10 (g/m3) from Pune City AQM Cell K. Park Oasis Mandai
Vehicles

% diff. (PMT BAU) 2010 -10.69 to -0.08 (avg -2.43) -0.35 -6.33 -0.43 -6.38

% diff. (PMT BAU) 2015 -10.34 to -0.24 (avg -2.47) -0.37 -6.13 -0.44 -6.31
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Vehicular Sources Bus Shifting 2007-08


- Shifting of Interstate Bus stations to outskirts
Reduction in Heavy vehicle traffic (~ 2000 state, 120 private) thru city
Increase in personal (2/4W) and public (3/W) trips to new Bus stands
Current / Immediate future only

Results
PM10 (g/m3) from Pune City AQM Cell K. Park Oasis Mandai
Vehicles

% diff. (ISBT Base) 2007 1.98 to 4.48 (avg 3.13) 2.90 3.14 3.30 3.01
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Slum Fuel Use SLUM 2010/ 2015


- Traditionally : biofuels kerosene LPG
- As per AQM Cell survey, faster shift from biofuel to LPG
Expected ratio 50% LPG; 35% kerosene; 15% biofuel
- Increase in slum population 6% / yr (AQM Cell)
Results
PM10 (g/m3) from Slum Pune City AQM Cell K. Park Oasis Mandai
cooking

% diff. (SLM2010 -Base) -90.45 to 157.54 (avg -69.19 -26.07 -72.19 -41.08
-54.84)

%diff (SLM2015 Base) -91.0 to 350.0 (avg -39.66 -34.92 -75.44 -25.96
-37.26)
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis

- Combined Scenarion CNG + Slum Fuel Use SLMCNG 2010/ 2015


- Most likely scenarios
- Contribution from Vehicular + Slum fuel use
Results

PM10 (g/m3) from Slum + Pune City AQM Cell K. Park Oasis Mandai
Vehicles
% diff. (SLMCNG2010 2.25 to 22.72 (avg 15.56 17.36 16.56 16.94
SLMVEH-07) 18.04)

%diff (SLMCNG2015 14.86 to 34.42 (avg 18.82 27.26 18.45 27.07


SLMVEH-07) 21.78)
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AERMOD Scenario Analysis

Pune Air Quality Modeling Scenario Analysis


- Scenarios At A Glance
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Resources
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram
University website Atmospheric Sciences Lectures/ Handouts
http://www.cpcb.nic.in http://www.envfor.nic.in
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