Statistical Interference lecture

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Statistical Interference lecture

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and Confidence

Intervals

PUBH 6000/8000

1

Lecture Objectives

2

Statistical Inference

Definition

Statistical inference is the act of using data in a particular

sample to make generalizations about the population from

which it came

Gerstman

2014

about parameters statistics in the

in the population sample

3

Statistical Inference

Concepts

Parameters and statistics

Parameter Statistic

Constant Yes No

Mean

Standard deviation s

Proportion

4

Statistical Inference

Types of populations

Target

Population we want to study

Actual (sampled)

Those that have the chance to be in the study

Study sample

Those that are in the study

Actual population

5

Statistical Inference

Central limit theorem

The sampling distribution of s tend toward normality regardless of the

underlying distribution

6

Statistical Inference

A. Population (individual observations)

B. Sampling distributions of 7

Statistical Inference

Normal approximation for a binomial proportion

np

npq

trial

q probability of failure = 1 p

8

9

Statistical inference

Hypothesis testing

Estimation

10

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

1. State hypothesis

5. Conclusion

11

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

State hypotheses

Null hypothesis

H0

Claim of no difference in the population

Alternative hypothesis

Ha

Claim of difference

12

Statistical Inference

Example

Statement of the problem:

In the 1970s, 2029 year old men in the U.S. had a mean

body weight of 170 pounds

now differs

Null hypothesis

H0: = 170 (no difference)

The alternative hypothesis can be stated in one of two ways

Ha: 170 (two-sided alternative)

Ha: > 170 (one-sided alternative)

13

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

Significance level ()

Decided before conducting the test

14

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

Test statistic

x

z stat TS

SE x

SE x

n

15

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

Goals

To reject H0 in favor of Ha

Method

Calculate a test statistic (TS)

Compare the TS to the critical value

If the |test statistic| is equal to or greater than the critical value, reject

the null

If the |test statistic| is less than the critical value, fail to reject the null

However, using SPSS this step is eliminated

16

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

P-value

Could random variation alone account for the difference between H0

and observations from a random sample?

The findings are statistically significant

reject H0

17

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

Decision rule

p < , reject the null hypothesis

18

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

Errors

Type I error

probability of a Type I error (an erroneous rejection of a true null hypothesis)

Type II error

probability of a Type II error (erroneous retention of a false null hypothesis)

Power = 1 -

Truth

H0 true H0 false

Decision

19

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

State hypothesis

Assume alpha set at 0.05 unless otherwise specified in this course

p < , reject null

p > , fail to reject null hypothesis

Conclusion

20

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

One-sample z test

H 0 : 0

H a : 0

x 0

z stat TS

n

21

Statistical Inference

Hypothesis testing

One-sample z test

Critical value for z-test

When = 0.05, CV (critical value) = 1.96

Two sided

Table B

zstat is negative look up value in table and multiple by 2

2(table value)

2

2(1-table value)

22

Statistical Inference

23

Statistical Inference

Find a critical value for = 0.05

1. Divide by 2, (/2)

0.05 = 0.025

Area in each tail

1 0.025 = .975

table

= 1.96

This is your critical value for

= 0.05 (95% confidence level)

24

25

Statistical Inference

Example 1

A topic of recent clinical interest is the possibility of using

drugs to reduce infarct size in patients who have had a

myocardial infarction within the past 24 hours. Suppose we

know that in untreated patients the mean infarct size is 25

with a standard deviation of 10. In 8 patients treated with the

drug the mean infarct size is 16. Is the drug effective in

changing the infarct size (is the infarct size different from 25)?

26

Statistical Inference

Answer 1

State hypotheses

Is the infarct size different from 25?

H 0 : 25

H a : 25

27

Statistical Inference

Answer 1

Set the significance level

28

Statistical Inference

Answer 1

Calculate test

x

statistic z stat TS

n

16 25

z stat 2.54

10 8

29

Statistical Inference

Answer 1

Determine p-value

TS 2.54

p 2 0.0055 0.0110 0.05

30

Statistical Inference

Answer 1

Conclusion

H0: = 25; Ha: 25

31

Statistical Inference

Answer 1

Summary H 0 : 25

State hypotheses

H a : 25

Significance level

x

z stat TS

Calculate test n

statistic

16 25

z stat 2.54

10 8

n

Statistical Inference

Example 2

The NCHS reported the mean total cholesterol level in 2002

for all adults was 203 and the standard deviation was 36.8. In

the offspring of the Framingham Heart Study (n = 3310), the

mean total cholesterol was 200.3. Is there statistical evidence

of a difference in mean cholesterol level (is the cholesterol

level different from 203)?

33

Statistical Inference

Answer 2

State hypotheses

Significance level

x

Calculate test z stat TS

statistic n

P-value

Conclusio 34

n

Statistical Inference

35

Statistical Inference

Confidence intervals

Estimation

Point estimation

Single estimate of the parameter

Interval estimation

Range of values that seeks to capture the parameter, confidence interval

Statistical Inference

Confidence intervals

Confidence intervals for when is known

CI x z SE x

1

2

SE x

n

Alpha level Confidence Z value

level 1 z1(/2)

.10 .90 1.645

.05 .95 1.960

.01 .99 2.575

37

Statistical Inference

Example 3

Compute the 95% confidence interval for the mean body

temperature given that the mean temperature for a sample of

10 is 97.2F and the population standard deviation is 0.2F.

38

Statistical Inference

Answer 3

CI x z

1

2 n

0.2

CI 97.2 1.96

10

39

Statistical Inference

Example 4

We wish to estimate the average number of heartbeats per

minute for a certain population. The average number of

heartbeats per minute for a sample of 49 subjects was found

to be 90. Assume that these 49 patients constitute a random

sample, and that the population is normally distributed with a

standard deviation of 10. Construct the 90, 95, and 99

percent confidence intervals.

40

Statistical Inference

CI x z

Answer 4 1

2 n

41

Statistical Inference

Confidence intervals

Relationship between

hypothesis testing and

confidence intervals

When the value of the parameter

identified in the null hypothesis

(0) falls outside the interval, the

results will be statistically

significant (reject H0)

=.05 because 180 falls outside

the 95% confidence interval.

because the 99% confidence

interval captures 180.

42

Statistical Inference

Example 5

In a psychological study of abnormally hyperactive children,

there is an interest in determining whether such children

differ from normal children in creativity. A creativity

inventory has been standardized on a large population of

children. The mean score on the inventory for this population

is 150 and the standard deviation is 16. A random sample of

50 is selected from a population of hyperactive children. The

sample is administered the creativity inventory; the sample

mean is 152.1 and the standard deviation is 15.1. The

research question is Do abnormally hyperactive children

differ in creativity from normal children? Test the

appropriate null hypothesis and report a p-value.

43

Statistical Inference

H 0 : 150

Answer 5 H a : 150

150 x 0

z stat TS

x 152.1 n

n 50

16 152.1 150

TS 0.9281

s 15.1 16 50

know so use z test

44

Statistical Inference

Example 6

Using the information from Example 5, calculate the 95%

confidence interval for the population mean when the sample

mean is 152.1 and the population standard deviation is 16.

The sample size is 50.

45

Statistical Inference

Answer 6

150

x 152.1

n 50 16

CI 95 152.1 1.96 152.1 1.96 2.26

16 50

s 15.1

46

Statistical Inference

Example 7

The scores on a physical-performance test for boys of junior

high school age have been standardized with a mean of 175

and a standard deviation of 12 for the general population. In a

large city school system, a random sample of 225 junior high

school boys is tested. The sample mean is 173.6. Test whether

the sample mean differs from the population mean.

47

Statistical Inference

Answer 7

175 x 0

z stat TS

x 173.6 n

12

n 225

48

Statistical Inference

Example 8

Using the information from Example 7, calculate the 95%

confidence interval for the population mean when the sample

mean is 173.6 and the population standard deviation is 12.

The sample size is 225.

49

Statistical Inference

Answer 8

175

x 173.6

12

n 225

50

Other References

Corty EW. Using and Interpreting Statistics A Practical Text for Health,

Behavioral, and Social Sciences. St. Louis, MO: Mosby Elsevier, 2007.

Seventh Edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1999.

Fourth Edition. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1998.

Grove, CA: Duxbury, 2000.

Brooks/Cole, 2011.

Schork MA, Remington RD. Statistics with Applications to the Biological and

Health Sciences, Third Edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2000.

51

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