Statistical Inference

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Statistical Inference

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You are on page 1of 45

PUBH 6000/8000

1

Lecture Objectives

Calculate a one-sample t-test and

confidence interval

Calculate a paired sample t-test and

confidence interval

2

Assumptions 1-Sample t-

test

To obtain a valid result:

There must be no outliers

The dependent variable is normally

distributed in the population

The data must be independent

3

Inference about a Mean

We rarely know population standard

deviation instead, we calculate sample

standard deviations s and use this as an

estimate of

We then use s to calculate this estimated

standard error of the mean:

s

SE xbar

n

Using s instead of adds a source of

uncertainty z procedures no longer apply

4

Students t-test

A family of distributions identified by

Student (William Sealy Gosset) in

1908

identified by their degrees of

freedom, df.

t distributions are similar to z

distributions but with broader tails

As df increases t tails get skinnier

t become more like z

5

Inference about a Mean

Students t distribution

6

Inference about a Mean

One-sample t-test

x 0

TS t stat

SE x s

if TS t n 1, fail to reject

SE xbar

2 n

if TS t n 1, reject H 0

2

s = standard deviation of

sample 7

Inference about a Mean

Example 1

A study of psychological and

physiological changes in a cohort of

dialysis patients with end-stage renal

disease (ESRD) was conducted. Thirty-

six patients were ascertained. The mean

serum creatinine was 0.97 with a

standard deviation of 0.22. We want to

test the hypothesis that the actual

serum creatinine level was 0.80.

8

Step 1:

Claim is made regarding the mean

difference.

Two-tailed: (our hypothesis)

Is the serum creatinine different from

n = 36

0.80?

H 0 : 0.80 = 0.80

H a : 0.80 s = 0.22

Xbar = 0.97

9

Step 2:

Select the level of significance of

based upon the seriousness of making

a type 1 error. This will help you to

determine the critical value.

0.05

problem, it has a significance level of

0.05.

Step 3:

Compute the test statistic, or TS.

x 0 n = 36

TS t stat = 0.80

SE x s = 0.22

Xbar = 0.97

x 0 0.97 0.80

TS t stat 4.64

s n 0.22 36

12

Step 4:

Compare the critical value with the

test statistic

13

Less than

0.001 is out

here off table

TS=

4.64

14

Step 4:

TS t30 , p 0.001

df its more

conservative So 30 15

Step 5:

State the conclusion

H0: = 0.80; Ha: 0.80

4.64 > 2.042 |TS| > CV, reject null

p < 0.001 < 0.05 p < 0.05, reject null

statistically significant difference

Serum creatinine level is different from 0.80

16

Inference about a Mean

Example 2

Natl. Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) has reported

mean total cholesterol as 203 in 2002. Suppose a new

drug is proposed to lower cholesterol and a study is

designed to evaluate the efficacy of the drug in lowering

cholesterol. Fifteen patients are enrolled in the study and

asked to take the new drug for 6 weeks. At the end of 6

weeks, each patients total cholesterol level was measured

and the sample statistics were as follows:

n = 15

xbar = 195.9

s = 28.7

Is there statistical evidence of a difference in mean total

cholesterol in patients using the new drug for 6 weeks?

17

Inference about a Mean

Answer 2

H 0 : 203

H a : 203

x 0 195.9 203

TS t stat 0.96

s n 28.7 15

t14 2.145

TS t14 , 0.30 p 0.40

no, not statistically significan t difference

18

p = 0.30

<TS<0.40

TS=

-0.96

19

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Confidence interval for

CI x t n 1, SE x

2

20

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Example 3

Calculate the 95% confidence interval

for the serum creatinine levels in

Example 1

xbar = 0.97

s = 0.22

n = 36

t30 = 2.042

21

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Answer 3

s

CI x t n 1

n

0.22

CI 0.97 2.042

36

CI 0.97 0.07 0.90, 1.04

0.80 not included so statistically different

Original Hypothesis 22

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Example 4

Calculate the 95% confidence interval

using the data from Example 2

xbar = 195.9

s = 28.7

n = 15

t14 = 2.145

Do on your own

23

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Answer 4

s

CI x t n 1

n

28.7

CI 195.9 2.145

15

CI 195.9 15.9 180.0, 211.8

203 is included so not statistically different

24

Paired Sample t-test

25

Inference about a Mean

(Paired Sample t-test)

Paired samples

Pretest/posttest studies

pre and post test (time 1 and time 2 on

same person);

Cross-over trials

(have group a and group b testing out med

compared to placebo. First 6 weeks group a

has med and b has placebo, next 6 weeks

group a has placebo and group b has med

crosses over so both groups get the med);

matched groups

Pair matches

each data point in one sample is matched to

a unique point in a second sample 26

Inference about a Mean

Paired samples

Also called matched-pairs and

dependent samples

xd 0

TS t stat

SE xd

if TS t n 1,

fail to reject

d 2

if TS t n reject H 0

d 1, 2

dbar

27

Inference about a Mean

Example 5

To study the effect of shell color on the

internal temperature of snails, brown

and yellow shells of about the same size

were matched. The shells were filled

with mercury, kept at the same level of

illumination, and the temperature of the

mercury was measured. Test the

hypothesis there was no difference in

temperature. Let = 0.05 and report p.

28

Inference about a Mean

Example 5 Brown

25.5

Yellow

25.6

Difference

-0.1

27.5 27.8 -0.3

27.3 26.3 +1.0

27.3 25.9 +1.4

29.2 28.0 +1.2

25.3 25.4 -0.1

26.4 25.6 +0.8

28.5 28.9 -0.4

28.1 27.2 +0.9

26.4 26.0 +0.4

the within pair difference (may be called delta)

29

Inference about a Mean

Answer 5

State hypotheses

Is the mean of the difference different from

zero?

H 0 : d 0

H A : d 0

30

Inference about a Mean

Answer 5

Set significance level

0.05

31

Inference about a Mean

Answer 5

Calculate the test statistic (TS)

d 0

TS t stat

SEd

0.48 0

TS 2.2836

0.6647 10

32

Inference about a Mean

Answer 5

Compare to critical value (CV)

t9 2.262

TS t9 , 2.2836 2.262

33

Inference about a Mean

Answer 5

Determine p-value

TS = 2.2836

0.02 < p < 0.05

34

Inference about a Mean

Answer 5

d 0.48

sd 0.6647

d 0 0.48 0

TS t stat 2.2836

sd n 0.6647 10

TS t9 2.262

reject null , shell temperature is different

0.02 p 0.05

H 0 : d 0

or paired samples d is generally equal to 0

H A : d 0 35

Inference about a Mean

Answer 5

Conclusion

H0: d = 0; Ha: d 0

2.2836 > 2.262 |TS| > CV, reject null

0.02 < p < 0.05 p < 0.05, reject null

statistically significant difference

Mean difference is different from zero

Temperature is different between yellow and

brown shells

36

Inference about a Mean

Example 6

In the Framingham Offspring Study, participants

attend clinical examinations approximately

every four years. The data on the next slide are

systolic blood pressures measured at the sixth

and seventh examination in a subsample of n =

15 randomly selected participants. Test the

hypothesis that there was no difference in

systolic blood pressure.

dbar = 5.3

sd = 12.8

37

Inference about a Mean

ID Exam 6 SBP Exam 7 SBP

Example 6 1 168 141

2 111 119

3 139 122

4 127 127

5 155 125

6 115 123

7 125 113

8 123 106

9 130 131

10 137 142

11 130 131

12 129 135

13 112 119

14 141 130

15 122 121

38

Inference about a Mean

Answer 6

d 5.3

sd 12.8

d 0 5.3 0

TS t stat 1.603

sd n 12.8 15

TS t14 2.145

fail to reject null , SBP is not different

0.10 p 0.20

39

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Confidence interval for paired

samples

CI d t n 1,

SEd

d 2

40

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Example 7

What is the 95% confidence interval for

the shell temperatures in Example 5?

dbar = 0.48

sd = 0.6647

n = 10

t9 = 2.262

41

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Answer 7

s

CI d t n 1

n

0.6647

CI 0.48 2.262

10

CI 0.48 0.47 0.01, 0.95

0 not included so statistically different

42

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Example 8

Calculate the 95% confidence interval

using the data from Example 6?

dbar = 5.3

sd = 12.8

n = 15

t14 = 2.145

43

Determining Confidence

Intervals

Answer 8

s

CI d t n 1

n

12.8

CI 5.3 2.145

15

CI 5.3 7.1 1.8, 12.4

0 is included so not statistically different

44

Other References

Corty EW. Using and Interpreting Statistics A Practical Text for

Health, Behavioral, and Social Sciences. St. Louis, MO: Mosby

Elsevier, 2007.

Daniel WW. Biostatistics: A Foundation for Analysis in the Health

Sciences, Seventh Edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,

1999.

Hinkle DE, Wiersma W, Jurs G. Applied Statistics for Behavioral

Sciences, Fourth Edition. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1998.

Pagano M, Gauvreau K. Principles of Biostatistics, Second Edition.

Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury, 2000.

Rosner B. Fundamentals of Biostatistics, Seventh Edition. Boston,

MA: Brooks/Cole, 2011.

Schork MA, Remington RD. Statistics with Applications to the

Biological and Health Sciences, Third Edition. Upper Saddle River,

NJ: Prentice Hall, 2000.

45

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