Analysis

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Analysis

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- Expected Returns on Stock and Bonds
- Comprehensive Cfp Exam Training Workshop_ 6 Weekend_50 Hours
- Financial Planing
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- Bond Market
- INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
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- MB0045 Financial Management Sem 2 Aug Fall 2011 Assignment
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- 6425ch6
- Exam Notes

You are on page 1of 61

(Ch 2 & 3)

Objectives

After reading this note, you will understand

the time value of money

how to calculate the price of a bond

why the price of a bond changes in the direction opposite to the change in

required yield

that the relationship between price and yield of an option-free bond is

convex

the relationship between coupon rate, required yield, and price

the complications of pricing bonds

how to calculate the yield on any investment

how to calculate the current yield, yield to maturity, yield to call, yield to put,

and cash flow yield

how to calculate the yield for a portfolio

Review of Time Value

Future Value

The future value (Pn) of any sum of money

invested today is:

Pn = P0(1+r)n

n = number of periods

Pn = future value n periods from now (in dollars)

P0 = original principal (in dollars)

r = interest rate per period (in decimal form)

(1 + r)n represents the future value of $1 invested

today for n periods at a compounding rate of r

Review of Time Value (continued)

Future Value

When interest is paid more than one time per

year, both the interest rate and the number of

periods used to compute the future value must be

adjusted as follows:

r = annual interest rate number of times

interest paid per year

n = number of times interest paid per year times

number of years

The higher future value when interest is paid

semiannually, as opposed to annually, reflects the

greater opportunity for reinvesting the interest

paid.

Review of Time Value (continued)

When the same amount of money is invested periodically,

it is referred to as an annuity.

When the first investment occurs one period from now, it

is referred to as an ordinary annuity.

The equation for the future value of an ordinary annuity

(Pn) is:

1 r

n

1

Pn A

r

r = annual interest rate number of times interest paid

per year

n = number of times interest paid per year times number

Review of Time Value (continued)

Annuity Using Annual Interest:

If A = $2,000,000, r = 0.08, and n = 15, then Pn = ?

1 r

n

1

Pn A r

1 0.08

15

1

Pn $2, 000, 000 0.08

$54,304,250

Review of Time Value (continued)

Annuity Using Semiannual Interest:

If A = $2,000,000/2 = $1,000,000, r = 0.08/2 =

0.04, and n = 15(2) = 30, then Pn = ?

1 r

n

1

Pn A

r

1 0.04

30

1

Pn $1, 000, 000

0.04

Pn $1, 000, 000 56.085

$56,085,000

PV and compounding frequency

Consider a 5% annual interest rate (APR)

Frequency m APR AER

Annual 1 5% 5.0000%

Semi-annual 2 5% 5.0625%

Quarterly 4 5% 5.0945%

Monthly 12 5% 5.1162%

Weekly 52 5% 5.1246%

Daily 365 5% 5.1267%

Continuous infinity 5% 5.1271%

Review of Time Value (continued)

Present Value

The present value is the future value process in reverse.

We have:

1

Pn

1 r

n

year

n = number of times interest paid per year times number of

years

For a given future value at a specified time in the future, the

higher the interest rate (or discount rate), the lower the

present value.

For a given interest rate, the further into the future that the

future value will be received, then the lower its present value.

Review of Time Value (continued)

To determine the present value of a series of

future values, the present value of each future

value must first be computed.

Then these present values are added together to

obtain the present value of the entire series of

future values.

Review of Time Value (continued)

When the same amount of money is received (or paid) each

period, it is referred to as an annuity.

When the first payment is received one period from now, the

annuity is called an ordinary annuity.

When the first payment is immediate, the annuity is called an

annuity due.

The present value of an ordinary annuity (PV) is:

n

11 / 1 r

PV A

r

r = annual interest rate number of times interest paid per year

Review of Time Value (continued)

Annuity (PV) Using Annual Interest:

n

11 / 1 r

PV A

r

PV $100

11

/ 1 0.09 8

0.09

PV $100 5.534811

$553.48

PV and Fixed-Rate Mortgage

Suppose a 30-year $100,000 mortgage loan is financed at a fixed interest rate

(APR) of 8%. What is the monthly payment?

=($100,0000.08/12)/(11/(1+0.08/12)^360)=$733.76

Notice that you overall pay 733.763012=$264,154 for this loan, the majority

of which -- $164,154 -- constitutes interest payments.

What is the interest and principal payments in the first month and last month?

Review of Time Value (continued)

Year

If the future value to be received occurs more than once per year, then

the present value formula is modified so that

i. the annual interest rate is divided by the frequency per year

ii. the number of periods when the future value will be received is

adjusted by multiplying the number of years by the frequency per

year

Pricing a Bond

an estimate of

i. the expected cash flows

ii. the appropriate required yield

iii. the required yield reflects the yield for financial

instruments with comparable risk, or alternative

investments

. The cash flows for a bond that the issuer cannot retire

prior to its stated maturity date consist of

i. periodic coupon interest payments to the maturity date

ii. the par (or maturity) value at maturity

In general, the price of a bond (P) can be computed

using the following formula:

n

Ct Mt

P +

t=1 1 r t

1 rn

P = price (in dollars)

n = number of periods (number of years times 2)

t = time period when the payment is to be received

C = semiannual coupon payment (in dollars)

r = periodic interest rate (required annual yield

divided by 2)

M = maturity value

Consider a 20-year 10% coupon bond with a par

value of $1,000 and a required yield of 11%.

Given C = 0.1($1,000) / 2 = $50, n = 2(20) = 40

and r = 0.11 / 2 = 0.055, the present value of the

coupon payments (P) is:

11 / 1 r n

P C r

11 / 1 0.055 40

P $50

0.055

P $50 16.046131

Pricing a Bond

(continued)

The present value of the par or maturity value of

$1,000 is:

M

$1, 000

$117.46

1 r 1 0.055

n 40

slide:

The price of the bond (P) =

present value coupon payments + present value maturity

value =

Pricing a Bond (continued)

For zero-coupon bonds, the investor realizes interest

as the difference between the maturity value and the

purchase price. The equation is:

M

P t

1 r n

M = maturity value

r = periodic interest rate (required annual yield divided

by 2)

n = number of periods (number of years times 2)

Consider the price of a zero-coupon bond (P)

that matures 15 years from now, if the maturity

value is $1,000 and the required yield is 9.4%.

Given M = $1,000, r = 0.094 / 2 = 0.047, and

n = 2(15) = 30, what is P ?

M t $ 1, 0 0 0

P $252.12

1 r n

1 0 . 0 4 7 3 0

Pricing a Bond (continued)

Price-Yield Relationship

A fundamental property of a bond is that its price

changes in the opposite direction from the change

in the required yield. (See Overhead 2-21).

The reason is that the price of the bond is the

present value of the cash flows.

If we graph the price-yield relationship for any

option-free bond, we will find that it has the

bowed shape shown in Exhibit 2-2 (See

Overhead 2-22).

Exhibit 2-1

Price-Yield Relationship for a

20-Year 10% Coupon Bond

0.050 1,627.57 0.085 1,143.08 0.120 849.54

Exhibit 2-2

Shape of Price-Yield Relationship for an

Option-Free Bond

Maximum

Price

Price

Yield

Pricing a Bond (continued)

When yields in the marketplace rise above the coupon rate at a given point in

time, the price of the bond falls so that an investor buying the bond can realizes

capital appreciation.

for a coupon rate that is lower than the required yield.

When a bond sells below its par value, it is said to be selling at a discount.

A bond whose price is above its par value is said to be selling at a premium.

Pricing a Bond (continued)

if Interest Rates Are Unchanged

For a bond selling at par value, the coupon rate equals the required yield.

As the bond moves closer to maturity, the bond continues to sell at par.

Its price will remain constant as the bond moves toward the maturity date.

The price of a bond will not remain constant for a bond selling at a premium or a

discount.

Exhibit 2-3 shows the time path of a 20-year 10% coupon bond selling at a discount

and the same bond selling at a premium as it approaches maturity. (See truncated

version of Exhibit 2-3 in Overhead 2-25.)

The discount bond increases in price as it approaches maturity, assuming that the

required yield does not change.

For a premium bond, the opposite occurs.

For both bonds, the price will equal par value at the maturity date.

Exhibit 2-3

Time Path for the Price of a 20-Year 10% Bond

Selling at a Discount and Premium as It

Approaches Maturity

Price of Discount Bond Price of Premium Bond

Year Selling to Yield 12% Selling to Yield 7.8%

0.0 1,000.00 1,000.00

Pricing a Bond (continued)

The price of a bond can change for three reasons:

i. there is a change in the required yield owing to changes in the credit

quality of the issuer

ii. there is a change in the price of the bond selling at a premium or a discount,

without any change in the required yield, simply because the bond is

moving toward maturity

iii. there is a change in the required yield owing to a change in the yield on

comparable bonds (i.e., a change in the yield required by the market)

Example

There are three bonds, two zeros and one coupon bond.

One-year zero price is 96, two-year zero is 91, a two-

year bond price is 108 with coupon rate 10%. The par

value for all three bonds is 100 and coupon payment is

annual. Is there any arbitrage opportunity? How to

develop a strategy to take the arbitrage opportunity?

Ex ante vs. Ex post Measures

the bond

or after receiving the entire cash flow streams, coupon

and

principle payments, if the bond is held till maturity.

measure while YTM is an ex ante concept.

Complications

following:

1. the next coupon payment is exactly six

months away

2. the cash flows are known

3. the appropriate required yield can be

determined

4. one rate is used to discount all cash flows

Complications (continued)

months away

When an investor purchases a bond whose next

coupon payment is due in less than six months, the

n

accepted method C for computing the

M price of the

P +

bond is as follows:

t=1 1 r 1 r

v t 1

1 r 1 r

v t 1

coupon) divided by (days in six-month period)

Example

Consider a 20-year 4% coupon bond with a par value of

$1,000 and a required yield of 8%. The bond was issued

on June 6, 2016. What is the value of the bond two

months after June 6, 2016?

Complications (continued)

For most bonds, the cash flows are not known with certainty.

This is because an issuer may call a bond before the maturity date.

All required yields are benchmarked off yields offered by Treasury securities.

From there, we must still decompose the required yield for a bond into its

component parts.

A bond can be viewed as a package of zero-coupon bonds, in which case a

unique discount rate should be used to determine the present value of each cash

flow.

Pricing Floating-Rate and

Inverse-Floating-Rate Securities

rate or an inverse-floating-rate security; it

depends on the reference rate in the future.

Price of a Floater

The coupon rate of a floating-rate security (or

floater) is equal to a reference rate plus some

spread or margin.

The price of a floater depends on

i. the spread over the reference rate

ii. any restrictions that may be imposed on the

resetting of the coupon rate

Example

Consider a bond selling at par ($1000) with a coupon rate of 6% and 10

years to maturity.

(a) What is the price of this bond if the required yield is 15%?

(b)What is the price of this bond if the required yield increases from 15%

to 16%, and by what percentage did the price of this bond change?

(c) What is the price of this bond if the required yield is 5%?

(d)What is the price of this bond if the required yield increases from 5% to

6%, and by what percentage did the price of this bond change?

(e) From your answers to the Question, parts b and d, what can you say

about the relative price volatility of a bond in a high-interest-rate

environment compared to a low-interest-rate environment?

Conventional Yield

Measures

Bond yield measures commonly quoted by

dealers and used by portfolio managers are:

1) Current Yield

2) Yield To Maturity

3) Yield To Call

4) Yield To Put

5) Yield To Worst

6) Cash Flow Yield

7) Yield (Internal Rate of Return) for a Portfolio

8) Yield Spread Measures for Floating-Rate

Securities

Conventional Yield

Measures (continued)

1) Current Yield

Current yield relates the annual coupon interest to

the market price.

The formula for the current yield is:

current yield = annual dollar coupon interest /

price

The current yield calculation takes into account only

the coupon interest and no other source of return

that will affect an investors yield.

The time value of money is also ignored.

Conventional Yield Measures

(continued)

2) Yield To Maturity

The yield to maturity is the interest rate that will make the

present value of the cash flows equal to the price (or initial

investment).

For a semiannual pay bond, the yield to maturity is found by

first computing the periodic interest rate, y, which satisfies the

relationship: C C C C M

P 2 3 ... n

1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y n

(in dollars), M = maturity value

(in dollars), and n = number of periods (number of years

multiplied by 2).

Conventional Yield Measures

(continued)

For a semiannual pay bond, doubling the periodic interest rate or

discount rate (y) gives the yield to maturity.

A all cash flows received during the life of the bond are reinvested at

the YTM.

b. the bond is held until maturity.

c. all promised cash flows will be paid.

Computing the Yield or Internal Rate of Return

on any Investment

Annualizing Yields

To obtain an effective annual yield associated with a

periodic interest rate, the following formula is used:

effective annual yield = (1 + periodic interest

rate)m 1

where m is the frequency of payments per year.

To illustrate, if interest is paid quarterly and the

periodic interest rate is 0.08 / 4 = 0.02, then we have:

effective annual yield = (1.02)4 1 = 1.0824 1 = .0824

or 8.24%

Computing the Yield or Internal Rate of Return

on any Investment (continued)

Annualizing Yields

We can also determine the periodic interest rate that will

produce a given annual interest rate by solving the

effective annual yield equation for the periodic interest

rate .

Solving, we find that

periodic interest rate = (1 + effective annual yield )1/m 1

To illustrate, if the periodic quarterly interest rate that

would produce an effective annual yield of 12%, then we

have:

periodic interest rate = (1.12)1/4 1 = 1.0287 1 =

0.0287 or 2.87%

Exercise in class

1. A coupon bond which pays interest semi-annually, has a par value of $1,000, matures in 5 years,

and has a yield to maturity of 8%. If the coupon rate is 10%, the intrinsic value of the bond today

will be __________.

A) $855.55

B) $1,000

C) $1,081

D) $1,100

2. A coupon bond which pays interest of $40 annually, has a par value of $1,000, matures in 5 years,

and is selling today at a $159.71 discount from par value. The actual yield to maturity on this bond

is __________.

A) 5%

B) 6%

C) 7%

D) 8%

Conventional Yield

Measures (continued)

3) Yield To Call

The call price is the price at which the bond may be called .

There is a call schedule that specifies a call price for each call

date.

The yield to call assumes that the issuer will call the bond at

some assumed call date and the call price is specified in the

call schedule.

C C C ... C M*

P The

= computation for the yield to call begins with this

1 y

expression:

1

1 y 2

1 y 3

1 y n*

1 y n*

until the assumed call date (number of years times 2)

For a semiannual pay bond, doubling the periodic interest rate

(y) gives the yield to call on a bond-equivalent basis.

Conventional Yield

Measures (continued)

4) Yield To Put

If an issue is putable, it means that the bondholder can

force the issuer to buy the issue at a specified price.

The put schedule specifies when the issue can be put

and the put price.

When an issue is putable, a yield to put is calculated.

The yield to put is the interest rate that makes the

present value of the cash flows to the assumed put

date plus the put price on that date as set forth in the

put schedule equal to the bonds price.

The formula for the yield to put is the same as for the

yield to call, but M * is now defined as the put price and

n* is the number of periods until the assumed put date.

The procedure is the same as calculating the yield to

maturity and the yield to call.

Conventional Yield

Measures

5) Yield To Worst

(continued)

A practice in the industry is for an investor to calculate the

yield to maturity, the yield to every possible call date, and

the yield to every possible put date.

The minimum of all of these yields is called the yield to

worst.

6) Cash Flow Yield

Amortizing securities involve cash flows that include

interest plus principal repayment and the cash flow each

period consists of three components: (i) coupon interest,

(ii) scheduled principal repayment, and (iii) prepayments.

For amortizing securities, market participants calculate a

cash flow yield, which is the interest rate that will make the

present value of the projected cash flows equal to the

market price.

Example:

Suppose the 8% coupon (semiannual payment),

30-year maturity bond sells for $1,150 and is

callable in 10 years at a call price of $1,100.

What is the yield to maturity, yield to call, and

yield to worst?

Conventional Yield Measures

(continued)

7) Yield (Internal Rate of Return) for a

Portfolio

The yield for a portfolio of bonds is not simply

the average or weighted average of the yield

to maturity of the individual bond issues in the

portfolio.

It is computed by determining the cash flows

for the portfolio and determining the interest

rate that will make the present value of the

cash flows equal to the market value of the

portfolio.

Exampl

e

If you construct a bond portfolio with 5 8% coupon (semiannual

payment), 5-year maturity bond sells for $1,150 and 10 1-year zero

coupon bond sells for $980. What is the yield for the portfolio?

Conventional Yield Measures

(continued)

8) Yield Spread Measures for Floating-

Rate Securities

The coupon rate for a floating-rate security

changes periodically based on the coupon

reset formula.

This formula consists of the reference rate and

the quoted margin.

Since the future value for the reference rate is

unknown, it is not possible to determine the

cash flows.

This means that a yield to maturity cannot be

computed.

Conventional Yield Measures

(continued)

9) Yield Spread Measures for Floating-Rate

Securities

There are several conventional measures used as margin

or spread measures cited by market participants for

floaters.

These include spread for life (or simple margin), adjusted

simple margin, adjusted total margin, and discount

margin.

The most popular of these measures is the discount

margin, which estimates the average margin over the

reference rate that the investor can expect to earn over

the life of the security.

Exhibit 3-1 shows the calculation of the discount margin

for a six-year floating-rate security. (See Overhead

3-20.)

Exhibit 3-1 Calculation of the Discount Margin for a Floating-Rate Security

Floating-rate security Maturity: six years;

Coupon rate: reference rate + 80 basis points Reset every six months

Margin (basis points)

Reference Cash

Period Rate Flowa 80 84 88 96 100

1 10% 5.4 5.1233 5.1224 5.1214 5.1195 5.1185

2 10 5.4 4.8609 4.8590 4.8572 4.8535 4.8516

3 10 5.4 4.6118 4.6092 4.6066 4.6013 4.5987

4 10 5.4 4.3755 4.3722 4.3689 4.3623 4.3590

5 10 5.4 4.1514 4.1474 4.1435 4.1356 4.1317

6 10 5.4 3.9387 3.9342 3.9297 3.9208 3.9163

7 10 5.4 3.7369 3.7319 3.7270 3.7171 3.7122

8 10 5.4 3.5454 3.5401 3.5347 3.5240 3.5186

9 10 5.4 3.3638 3.3580 3.3523 3.3409 3.3352

10 10 5.4 3.1914 3.1854 3.1794 3.1673 3.1613

11 10 5.4 3.0279 3.0216 3.0153 3.0028 2.9965

12 10 105.4 56.0729 55.9454 55.8182 55.5647 55.4385

Present Value = 100.0000 99.8269 99.6541 99.3098 99.1381

a

For periods 111: cash flow = 100 (reference rate + assumed margin)(0.5); for period

12: cash flow = 100 (reference rate + assumed margin)(0.5) + 100.

Potential Sources of a

Bonds

Dollar Return

An investor who purchases a bond can expect to receive

a dollar return from one or more of these sources:

i. the periodic coupon interest payments made by

the issuer

ii. any capital gain (or capital loss negative dollar

return) when the bond matures, is called, or is sold

iii. interest income generated from reinvestment of

the periodic cash flows

. The current yield considers only the coupon interest

payments.

. The yield to maturity, yield to call, and cash flow yield

all take into account the three components.

Potential Sources of a

Bonds Dollar Return

(continued)

Determining the Interest-On-Interest

Dollar Return

The interest-on-interest component can represent a

substantial portion of a bonds potential return. The

coupon interest plus interest on interest 1 can n

1

r be

couponinterest

found by using interestoninterest C

the following equation:

r

where

C is the coupon interest

r is the semiannual reinvestment rate

n is the number of periods

Potential Sources of a Bonds

Dollar Return (continued)

Determining the Interest-On-Interest

Dollar Return

The total dollar amount of coupon interest is found by

multiplying the semiannual coupon interest by the

number of periods:

total coupon interest = nC

where C is the coupon interest, r is the semiannual

reinvestment rate, and n is the number of periods.

The interest-on-interest component is then the difference

between the coupon interest plus interest on interest

1 r n as

and the total dollar coupon interest, 1 expressed by the

interestoninterest C

formula nC

r

Potential Sources of a Bonds

Dollar Return (continued)

Return

Example. Assume that the coupon interest (C) is

$50, the semiannual reinvestment rate (r) is 4.5%,

and the number of periods 1 r(n)

n is1 40. What is the

interestoninterest C

interest-on-interest? nC

r

Using our equation for interest on interest and

inserting in our given values we get:

1 0.045 40 1

50 40 50 50 107.03032 1, 400 $7,351.52

0.045

Potential Sources of a Bonds

Dollar Return (continued)

Yield To Maturity and Reinvestment Risk

The investor realizes the yield to maturity only

if the bond is held to maturity and the coupon

payments can be reinvested at the computed

yield to maturity.

Reinvestment risk is the risk that future

reinvestment rates will be less than the yield to

maturity at the time the bond is purchased.

There are two characteristics of a bond that

determine the importance of the interest-on-

interest component and therefore the degree of

reinvestment risk: maturity and coupon.

Total Return (continued)

The idea underlying total return is simple.

i. The objective is first to compute the total

future dollars that will result from investing in

a bond assuming a particular reinvestment

rate.

ii. The total return is then computed as the

interest rate that will make the initial

investment in the bond grow to the computed

total future dollars.

Applications of the Total Return

Horizon Analysis

assess performance over some investment

horizon.

Horizon return refers to when a total return is

calculated over an investment horizon.

An often-cited objection to the total return

measure is that it requires the portfolio manager

to formulate assumptions about reinvestment

rates and future yields as well as to think in terms

of an investment horizon.

Example on total return

You purchased a 5-year annual interest coupon bond one year

ago. Its coupon interest rate was 6% and its par value was

$1,000. At the time you purchased the bond, the yield to

maturity was 4%. If you sold the bond after receiving the

first interest payment and the bond's yield to maturity had

changed to 3%, your annual total rate of return on holding

the bond for that year would have been __________.

A) 5.00%

B) 5.51%

C) 7.61%

D) 8.95%

59

Calculating Yield

Changes

The absolute yield change (or absolute rate

change) is measured in basis points and is the

absolute value of the difference between the two

yields as given by

absolute yield change = initial yield new yield 100.

The percentage change is computed as the natural

logarithm of the ratio of the change in yield as shown

by

percentage change yield = 100 ln (new yield / initial

yield)

where ln in the natural logarithm.

Consider the following bond: coupon rate =11%, maturity = 18 years, par

value = $1,000, first par call in 13 years, and only put date in five years

and putable at par value. Suppose that the market price for this bond

$1,169.

(a)Show that the yield to maturity for this bond is 9.077%.

(d) Suppose that the call schedule for this bond is as follows:

Can be called in eight years at $1,055

Can be called in 13 years at $1,000

And suppose this bond can only be put in five years. What is the yield to

worst for this bond?

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