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The Informational, Social, and Cognitive Heart
of our Accelerating Future
H+ Summit 2009
EON Irvine, CA
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Classifying Transformative Tech:
The NISCB Tech Pentad
Acceleration
Studies Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno (NBIC) convergence was a good start, but it overlooks
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Social convergence. The NISCB pentad fixes that, and arranges these
systems “fastest first”, from most rapidly to least rapidly complexifying:
Nanotech
Infotech
Sociotech
Cognotech
Biotech
NI is the “trans” and SCB the “humanism” in transhumanism. We have
moral responsibilities for all tech, but they differ in their intrinsic rates
of complexification, and in their relation to the self.
We directly experience SCB change as part of our biological identities,
and externally experience NI change, which we create and discover.
Of the three techs we directly experience, SC are the easiest to change
(our social choices and relations, our thoughts, emotions, attitudes).
This is why SC is the heart of humanism. What we care most about.
We are most essentially social-cognitive creatures, using all our tech to
Los Angeles “niche construct” our planet, like beavers, termites, or bees.
New York
Palo Alto See Cascio, Jamais. 2009. The Singularity and Society. Fast Company.
STEEP to STEEPS to STEEPSOP to SNISCBEEPSOP:
Developing an Accelaware Set of Foresight Categories
Acceleration
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Science (Theoretical, Applied, Prof., Sci. Ed, Sci. Policy)
Tech – Nano & Macrotech
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Tech – Infotech
Tech – Sociotech
Tech – Cognotech
Tech – Biotech
Environment (Sustainability, Resources, Impacts, etc.)
Economics (Capitalism, Biz-Law, 3BL Accounting, etc.)
Politics (Military, Security, Policy, Non-Biz Law, etc.)
Society (Culture, Media, Education, Religion, Art, etc.)
Organizational (Entrepreneurship, Mgmt, Org Dev, etc.)
Personal (Relationship, Career, Family, Spirituality, etc.)
All 12 categories are important to foresight development and change management. The first three,
Los Angeles
Science,
New York Nanotech, and Infotech, seem to be “universal pulls” toward accelerating complexification. All
the rest are enablers, shapers, or blocks to that acceleration. Scan with them all to see the big picture.
Palo Alto
NISCB Tech - In Detail
Acceleration
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“Nano”: Macroengineering, Microengineering & Nanoengineering, Physics,
Chemistry, Energy, Resources, Agric., Cleantech, Manufacturing, Space…
“The leading edge of all Macrotech is Nanotech. (Physical effic. or density incr.)”
Infotech
“AI” (Narrow and General Artificial Intelligence): Computing, Networks,
Databases, Sensors, Automated Robotics, Conversational Interface, Cybertwins,
Underground Automated Highway Systems…
Sociotech
“IA” (Intelligence Amplification): Tech+Policy with Quantifiable Positive Sum
Benefits for Society: Clothing, Democratic Capitalism, Subsidized Solar, Social
Networks, P2P Media, iTV/Personalized Ed, Valuecosm …
Cognotech
“Mind”: Neuropsych (dev. psych, Ed. tech, behav. economics, expert
performance), Psychiatry, Neuropharm, Meditation, Crit. Thinking, Brain Games,
Consc. Monitoring, Symbiont Networks, New Age Hooey/Placebo Effects …
Biotech
Los Angeles “Body”: Medicine, Public Health, Nutrition and Diet, Biotechnology,
New York Bioinformatics, Genetics, Mol. Bio, Prosthetics, Implants…
Palo Alto
Beware NIB, Our Transhumanist Community’s Historical Bias
Nanotech Infotech Biotech stories are “Not In Balance”!
Acceleration
Studies We transhumanists love thinking about NIB, three techs on the "extremes" of the NISCB pentad:
Foundation We love the molecular assembler, nanofabber and nanobot visions of Nanotech.
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We love general artificial intelligence (AI) (vs. intelligence amplification (IA)) in Infotech.
We love genetic engineering, neuropharmacology, and superlongevity in Biotech.
But these are all seriously oversold and likely to be persistent underperformers for the next 20-30 years.
Assemblers are hard! Drexler (2004) is now thinking vacuum phase (Drexler vs. Smalley debate) because we
don’t have a clue how to do them in liquid. Even though that’s what cells do, and supramolecular synthetic chemistry
is what we’d want (e.g., an organometallic soup as feedstock for a fab). The elephant in the room is the entropy
accumulation problem. Until we figure out bio-inspired, error-correcting systems, nanotech can’t develop much past
materials science. Read David Berube, Nano-Hype, 2005, + Blog and Richard Jones, Soft Machines, 2008 + Blog.
Nanobots? We don’t even have serious microfluidics or labs on a chip yet. Nanofabbers? Nanofabrication is a
collection of capital- and skill-intensive chip industry and lab bench R&D processes. Let’s be honest. We don’t even
have low-cost prototyping or low-volume macromanufacturing options yet, much less micro- or nanomanufacturing.
Let’s focus on growing the DIY / Maker / Open Source / Open Innovation / Open Science communities, and helping
maker labs like TechShop (founded 2006) or Noisebridge (2008) overcome the many blocks (liability, financial,
marketing, political) to spreading beyond n=1.
General AI is a conundrum inside several enigmas. We don’t understand the brain yet (memory, learning,
consciousness), let alone have a good idea how to make an artificial one. Let’s crack LTP, signaling, neural
synchronization, and a host of other juicy mysteries in neuroscience before we meow about building “ Cat Brains.”
More reality, please! Read Dennis Bray, Wetware, 2009 to appreciate all the nonlinear and emergent computation in
just a single cell. Read Moshe Sipper, Machine Nature, 2002 to get a sense of the bio-inspiration and parallelism our
hardware will need before it can bootstrap to higher functions. Barely even on the 30 year horizon, in my opinion.
Genetic engineering in humans? Humbug, unless you’ve got a single gene disease. We aren’t even sure about it
in our foods. Read Denise Caruso, Intervention, 2006. Neuropharmacology? All drugs, including SSRI’s are global,
top-down tech that burns out (excitotoxicity, as in meth brain) your delicate, bottom-up regulated brain. A little
burnout may be therapeutic, but it’s still degradation, not enhancement. Longevity past 120? Not unless you can
magically stop cellular entropy in dozens of pathways (no nanobots available, sorry). Let’s get serious about
getting people to 120 instead, with veganism, optimal nutrition, methionine restriction, big lowering of HbA1c and
inflammation. Dirt cheap blood tests, implants. All our “silver bullets,” like resveratrol, are just silver bb’s (mild
positive effects, and only in the right dosage). Major dietary and lifestyle improvements will happen only in the age of
Los Angeles p2p media, symbiont networks, cybertwins, and implantable telemetry (quantified metabolic self). So let’s
make these happen now!
New York
Palo Alto We have to get back to the IA story in Sociotech, and neuropsych in Cognotech, the "heart" of the NISCB
Jim Dator’s Four Futures: Each Have Value
They Also Represent Four Classic Political Dialogs
Acceleration
Right wing
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Continuation
(Economic Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Social Issues)
Left wing
Continuation
(Social Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Economic Issues)
Up wing
Transformation
(Selective Issues)
Down wing
Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change
Decline & Collapse
Los Angeles (Selective Issues)
New York
Palo Alto Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press.
Are You Accelaware?
Acceleration
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Galaxies 0.5
Stars 2
Planets (Early) 75
Ecosystems, Plants 900 (10^2)
Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4)
Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5)
Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5)
Modern Engines 10^5 to 10^8
Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10
Pentium II of the 1990's 10^11
Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+
Los Angeles Free energy rate density values in
New York
Eric
Palo AltoChaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 hierarchically emergent CAS. © 2009 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
Acceleration
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Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
What
Technology
Wants
1995 2010
Los Angeles
mart, John. 2008 Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.
New York
Palo Alto http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf © 2009 Accelerating.org
‘Search Basins’ and ‘Portal Pathways’:
Developmental Portal Pathways Must Exist
Acceleration
Studies Key Research Questions:
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Are portals/bottlenecks that lead to increasing complexity plentiful or rare?
Are such portals/bottlenecks sequence-dependent or randomly traversible?
Are such portals convergent, divergent, or non-vergent (as depicted here)?
Los Angeles
Crutchfield,
New York J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P.
(eds.),
Palo Alto Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function.
Portal Pathway for Complex Chemical Evo Devo –
Carbon Chemistry
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Carbon is the only way forward to complex (living ) chemistry. Boron and
Silicon no longer considered viable enough to form autocatalytic cycles in
liquid phase.
Note that four of six most common elements in life chemistry (CHNOPS),
Los Angeles and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur, are formed in the
New York
Palo Alto small, third generation (Population I) stars like our Sun
Portal Pathway for Cells –
Lipids and RNA
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Lipids and RNA may be the only way from organic chemistry to cells!
RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form
spontaneously in Earth’s chemistry (and precursors form on meteorites).
Nucleobases (AGCT/U) form from cyanide, acetylene and water.
Sugars form from alkali and formaldehyde
Phosphates are released from schreibersite in meteorites (“solar
system assist”), and (a little) from (modern) volcanic vents.
Sutherland et. al., mixing sugar and nucleobase precursors and
phosphate got 2-aminooxazole (partial sugar, partial nucleobase)
Exposure to intense solar UV in shallow water (“solar system assist”)
destroys the incorrect forms of nucleobases, leaving behind C and U.
RNA is today the only known heteropolymer (of 10M species!) that can
both reproduce itself and catalyze 3D (protein) construction (ribozymes)
RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World
Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid.
Los Angeles Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009.
New York Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine
Palo Alto ribonucleotides in prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009.
Evolutionary Convergence to the Superorganism?
The stunningly niche-dominant social insects
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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species social insects?
Why does this 2% weigh more than
the mass of all other insects combined
(and is even 80% of all animal biomass
in the Amazon rainforest)?
Escalation of power/mass/intelligence
in competition (Evolution and
Escalation, Vermeij)
Eusocial species use both social and
individual levels of computation
(Lucifer Principle, Bloom).
Competitive exclusion once the social
computation niche is occupied.
Do social insects cause most insect
extinctions (invasion theory)
Are humans now doing the same thing
Los Angeles as the social insects before us?
New York
Palo Alto
The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity,’
a Human-Machine Superorganism
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Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social
animals are parts of “superorganisms.”
Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the environmental
structures their genetics and memetics compel them to construct.
Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell-organism- supercolony.
Los Angeles
New York
Stock,
Palo Alto Greg. 1994. Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism.
Teilhard on Technological Acceleration:
“Cephalization” / “Planetization” of Earth
Acceleration
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Foundation "No one can deny that a network
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(a world network) of economic
and psychic affiliations is being
woven at ever increasing speed
which envelops and constantly
penetrates more deeply within
each of us. With every day that
passes it becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or think
otherwise than collectively."
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process that human society has ever engaged in.
As biologicals, this may also be our last great job description.
Are you doing your job? Are you on social networks, on a smartphone,
on the cloud (G-office), on open source software, yelping, blogging,
tweeting, commenting, and helping to build the global semantic map?
Are you subsidizing metaverse innovation (rather than convenience)
with your time, energy, and dollars? Are you a pioneer? Pioneers take
arrows in their backs. They are tough sons of bitches with vision.
Los Angeles
New York
Miemis, Venessa. 2009. A Metathinking Manifesto. Emergentbydesign.com
Palo Alto Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). MetaverseRoadmap.org
Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality
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Necklace phone
‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Nokia 2004)
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
Los Angeles
Wearcam.org’s first-gen Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
New York
Palo Alto‘sousveillance’ cams (2001) iPhone (Apple 2007) Top-selling camcorder.
IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the
Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
See Brigis, Alvis. 2008. The Social Will to Accelerate. Memebox.com.
Network with Your Favorite Foresight Affinity Groups
Do More Of It this Year!
Acceleration
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Membership org,
Membership organization, e-news, conference.
magazine, conference. WFSF.org
Los Angeles
New York http://futurecamp.ning.com Join us for a week of future salons, talks, and hanging out in BRC!
Palo Alto Ping johnsmart@accelerating.org for an invite, tell us about your foresight interests and activities.
Appendix
(Can’t Cover This Today,
But Transhumanists Should Keep This in Mind…)
Bio vs. Tech, or Monkey vs. Robot
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Los Angeles
New York
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The Limits of Top-Down Control:
Engineering Smartness is Very Hard to Do
Acceleration
Studies “Doogie Howser” Mouse. Extra copies of NMDA receptor 2B
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better memories but were more neurotic (sensitive to pain).
Intelligence breeding in hunting dogs, horses, and other domestics has
had very little effect vs. wildtype animals (“dumb” Pointer vs. Wild Dog).
All neuropharmacology always has a strong dose response and receptor
downregulation, and it all causes long-term damage.
Some of this damage is adaptive (anxiolytics, antidepressants, etc.)
Los Angeles
Domestic
New York Pointer African Wild Dog
Palo Alto
The Limits of Top-Down Control:
Growth Genes and Antagonistic Plieotropy
Acceleration
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Thesis: The further out one gets from the first living cell, the less
developmental freedom remains (legacy code/path
dependency).
Are humans near the end of the genetic line? Consider:
We went developmentally “backward” (heterochrony) to emerge
We emerged not due to incremental changes in variety of genes,
but instead due to a rare punctuated change in a tiny number
of brain genes 4-6 million years ago (HAR sequences) that
improved our nongenetic (language) abilities.
Since then, brain-expressed genes in humans clearly follow a
terminal differentiation dynamic. As Wang et al. (2006)
Bakewell et al. (2007) and others report, evolutionary change in
human brain-expressed genes has slowed down both in
absolute terms and relative to chimps since our split six million
years
Smart, John 2001. Limitsago.
to Biology: Performance Limitations on Natural and Engineered Biological
Systems.
Los Angeles
http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html Wang, Hurng-Yi et al. 2006. Rate of Evolution in
Brain-Expressed
New York Genes in Humans and Other Primates, PLoS Biology 5(2):e13 Bakewell, Margaret A. et
al.
Palo2007.
Alto More genes underwent positive selection in chimp evol. than in human evol. PNAS 4.17.2007.