E370

Week 05
Part 1:
Expected Values of
Discrete Random
Variables
Discrete variables
can assume only a countable number of
different values
gaps between values along the number line
It is possible to list all X values and the
associated P(X) in Probability Distributions
Random variables
Actual outcomes are determined by chance.
Notation:
X outcome
P(X) probability of an outcome

Discrete Random Variables

 This Thisis also a
is a frequency
distribution: probability
Number of drinks distribution for a
consumed per random variable:
occasion by E370 Number of drinks
students who
fi / fi = consumed per
X
classified themselves X P(X)
occasion by E370
fi/n
as Light Drinkers students
0 who0.56
0 0.56 classified themselves
1 0.13
as Light Drinkers
1 0.13
2 0.07
2 0.07
3 0.07
3 0.07
4 0.04
4 0.04
5 0.13 5 0.13
What
is the expected number of
drinks consumed per occasion by
light-drinking E370 students?
P(X
X Products Sum
)
0 0.56 =0*0.56 = 0 0
1 0.13 =1*0.13 = 0.13 +0.13
2 0.07 =2*0.07 = 0.14 +0.14
3 0.07 =3*0.07 = 0.21 +0.21
4 0.04 =4*0.04 = 0.16 +0.16
5 0.13 =5*0.13 = 0.65 +0.65 = 1.29

Expected Values
What
is the expected number of
drinks consumed per occasion by
light-drinking E370 students?
P(X
X Products Sum
)
0 0.56 =0*0.56 = 0 0
1 0.13 =1*0.13 = 0.13 +0.13
2 0.07 =2*0.07 = 0.14 +0.14
3 0.07 =3*0.07 = 0.21 +0.21
4 0.04 =4*0.04 = 0.16 +0.16
5 0.13 =5*0.13 = 0.65 +0.65 = 1.29

Expected Values
What
is the expected number of
drinks consumed per occasion by
light-drinking E370 students?
P(X
X Products Sum
)
0 0.56 =0*0.56 = 0 0
1 0.13 =1*0.13 = 0.13 +0.13
2 0.07 =2*0.07 = 0.14 +0.14
3 0.07 =3*0.07 = 0.21 +0.21
4 0.04 =4*0.04 = 0.16 +0.16
5 0.13 =5*0.13 = 0.65 +0.65 = 1.29

Expected Values
What

is the expected variance of the

number of drinks consumed per occasion by
light-drinking E370 students?

(X-
P( (X- (X-
X E(X))2*P(X
X) E(X)) E(X))2
)
0.5 (0- (0- 0.93189
0 (0-1.29)
6 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.56 6
0.1 (1- (1- +
1 (1-1.29)
3 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.13 0.010933
0.0 (2- (2- +
2 (2-1.29)
7 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.07 0.035287
0.0 (3- (3- +
3 (3-1.29)
More Expected Values
7
0.0
1.29)2
(4-
1.29)2*0.07
(4-
0.204687
+
4 (4-1.29)
4 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.04 0.293764
What

is the expected variance of the

number of drinks consumed per occasion by
light-drinking E370 students?

(X-
P( (X- (X-
X E(X))2*P(X
X) E(X)) E(X))2
)
0.5 (0- (0- 0.93189
0 (0-1.29)
6 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.56 6
0.1 (1- (1- +
1 (1-1.29)
3 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.13 0.010933
0.0 (2- (2- +
2 (2-1.29)
7 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.07 0.035287
0.0 (3- (3- +
3 (3-1.29)
More Expected Values
7
0.0
1.29)2
(4-
1.29)2*0.07
(4-
0.204687
+
4 (4-1.29)
4 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.04 0.293764
What

is the expected variance of the

number of drinks consumed per occasion by
light-drinking E370 students?

(X-
P( (X- (X-
X E(X))2*P(X
X) E(X)) E(X))2
)
0.5 (0- (0- 0.93189
0 (0-1.29)
6 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.56 6
0.1 (1- (1- +
1 (1-1.29)
3 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.13 0.010933
0.0 (2- (2- +
2 (2-1.29)
7 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.07 0.035287
0.0 (3- (3- +
3 (3-1.29)
More Expected Values
7
0.0
1.29)2
(4-
1.29)2*0.07
(4-
0.204687
+
4 (4-1.29)
4 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.04 0.293764
What

is the expected variance of the

number of drinks consumed per occasion by
light-drinking E370 students?

(X-
P( (X- (X-
X E(X))2*P(X
X) E(X)) E(X))2
)
0.5 (0- (0- 0.93189
0 (0-1.29)
6 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.56 6
0.1 (1- (1- +
1 (1-1.29)
3 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.13 0.010933
0.0 (2- (2- +
2 (2-1.29)
7 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.07 0.035287
0.0 (3- (3- +
3 (3-1.29)
More Expected Values
7
0.0
1.29)2
(4-
1.29)2*0.07
(4-
0.204687
+
4 (4-1.29)
4 1.29)2 1.29)2*0.04 0.293764
 Expected Variance = 3.27drinks2
Standard Deviation = SQRT(3.27) =
1.81 drinks
Is that a lot of variability or a little?
Tointerpret a statistic, we need context.
The range of the variable is 5.
The expected value is 1.29.
Two standard deviations above the mean
takes us almost to 5.
We cant go two standard deviations below
the mean because we run into 0 and we
cant have negative drinks.

Some meaning please!



Summary of Expected Value

Formulas For Discrete Data